Who has the upper hand at each position between the Blue Jays and Yankees in the ALDS

The ALDS is beginning today with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the New York Yankees. The Yankees just defeated the Boston Red Sox in a close-fought Wild Card series. The Blue Jays have the edge this season, winning eight of the 13 meetings, which was crucial in awarding them the bye and home-field advantage, as both teams finished the regular season with identical records of 94-68.

This should prove to be a well-fought series, but how do both teams fare at each position?

How do the Blue Jays fare against the Yankees at each position?

Catcher - Alejandro Kirk vs. Austin Wells

Kirk is the clear favorite amongst the two catchers, both offensively and defensively. Defensively, Kirk ranks in the 100th and 98th percentile for blocks above average (21) and framing (16) this season, where he was exceptional behind the plate. Kirk has been to the postseason three times and has gone 6-17 and will be in the middle of a hopefully potent offense in the ALDS.

Wells is also an elite framer (11), as he ranks in the 96th percentile, but his offensive production lags behind Kirk's. In his two postseason trips, he's hit .136/.215/.254 with two home runs and six knocked in, so he isn't a significant threat at the plate.

Wells’s strength is behind the plate, calling pitches, where the starters allowed only three earned runs over 20 1/3 innings with 24 strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox.

Advantage: Blue Jays

First base - Vladimir Guerrero Jr vs. Ben Rice

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. began the season slowly, but received a 14-year $500 million contract and started to turn his season around. Despite his power production decrease this season (23 home runs and 84 RBIs), he's still been a consistent bat, hitting .292/.381/.467 with an .848 OPS. The five-time All-Star looks to right a dud of a postseason resumé, where he's hit 3-22 with one knocked in over 22 at-bats.

Ben Rice has played three different positions for the New York Yankees, but has started the last two games against right-hand pitching. With the Blue Jays only utilizing right-handed pitchers, it's likely Rice plays every game at first base.

The 26-year-old has struggled in his first two seasons in the pros, but was a decent contributor in the Wild Card round this postseason, going 2-7 with a home run against the Boston Red Sox. Paul Goldschmidt may make an appearance if a left-handed pitcher comes.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Second base - Ernie Clement vs Jazz Chisolm Jr.

Bo Bichette is still uncertain to make his return from a knee sprain suffered on September 6, which means Ernie Clement will likely be playing second base this series. His strengths lie in defense, with 13 outs above average, and he can play four different positions. Offensively, he's a contact hitter, but lacks power, as he had a .313 on-base percentage, but only a .398 slugging percentage. He’ll likely be hitting in the bottom third of the lineup.

Chisolm Jr. is the far superior hitter of the two second basemen. He hit .242/.332/.481 with a .813 OPS with 31 home runs and 80 knocked in. Although in four postseason trips, he’s struggled with only 13 hits, two home runs, and two knocked in over 82 plate appearances. He doesn't bat against lefties regularly, but with the Blue Jays' right-handed heavy pitching staff, Chisolm Jr. should be regularly in the lineup.

Advantage: Yankees

Shortstop - Andrés Giménez vs. Anthony Volpe

Shortstop isn't as strong offensively with Giménez playing shortstop until Bichette returns. The Blue Jays would have the advantage if Bichette were playing, but until then, Giménez doesn’t provide the same offensive production. Giménez is strong defensively with 10 outs above. In his two postseason trips, he's provided three RBIs, but has struck out 27 times in 69 plate appearances.

Volpe doesn't offer much more than Giménez. Defensively, he posted a .963 fielding percentage with 19 errors. Offensively, he is also not very productive, hitting .212/.272/.391 this season, although he set a career high in RBIs (72).

Even though he hasn't lit up the scoreboard offensively in the regular season, he has shown flashes of excellence in the postseason. In his two trips, he has scored 11 runs and driven in eight runs. He’ll bat in the bottom third of the lineup, but has shown that the regular season numbers mean nothing, as he's been a contributor in the postseason.

Advantage: Yankees

Third base - Addison Barger vs  a committee

This is Barger’s debut in the postseason, and he's looking to continue his breakout season. He hit 21 home runs and knocked in 74 runs in his second MLB season, although he struck out 121 times over 502 plate appearances. Barger will likely be in the middle of the batting order due to his power potential.

The Yankees started three different third basemen in the Wild Card round. They started three different players in the Wild Card round (Amed Rosario, Jose Caballero, and Ryan McMahon).

McMahon came over from the Colorado Rockies to serve as a defensive replacement and may likely receive the starts due to his superior defense, but neither of the three offers much contribution on the offensive side of the ball.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Right field - Nathan Lukes vs Aaron Judge

Let's just keep this simple. The two-time AL MVP, Judge, is a slight favorite to win his third award, so he holds the obvious advantage in the ALDS. Although Lukes has been instrumental this season, filling in while Anthony Santander has been out with a shoulder injury.

Lukes is 31 years old, but completed his first full season in MLB. Over 438 plate appearances, he hit 12 home runs, 55 runs, and 65 runs batted in. Lukes has a solid arm in right field, ranking in the 96th percentile for arm strength, which will keep base runners hesitant to run on him.

Advantage: Yankees

Center field - Daulton Varsho vs Trent Grisham

This may be the only matchup that could go either way. Varsho has never been an on-base hitter, but he generates a ton of power. He battled injuries all season long and only logged 271 plate appearances this season, but if he were healthy all season, then the 29-year-old would have set multiple career highs.

This season, he hit 20 home runs and 55 runs batted in. Although it was 321 plate appearances short of 2022’s total, where he set a career high in home runs (27) and RBIs (74).  

Grisham will likely be in the lead-off spot in the batting order due to there being mostly righties in the Blue Jays' pitching staff. He exploded this season for a career high in home runs (34) and RBIs (74).

He has a great eye at the plate, drawing 82 walks. He's struggled in his four postseason trips, hitting only .169/.231/.250 with a .481 OPS and only three home runs over 90 plate appearances.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Left field - Anthony Santander vs. Cody Bellinger

Santander made his return to MLB after missing the majority of the season with a shoulder injury. Before his injury, he struggled, hitting .175/.271/.294 with only six home runs over 209 plate appearances. The Blue Jays are hoping Santander can return to his 2024 form, where he set career highs in home runs (44) and RBIs (102) while with the Baltimore Orioles.

Bellinger had a strong regular season, hitting 29 home runs and 98 RBIs, his most since 2019. He's been a reliable bat in the middle of the Yankees’ batting order and has seven years of postseason experience, with the previous six coming with the Los Angeles Dodgers, although he hasn't been a massive contributor, only hitting nine home runs in 279 plate appearances, but has knocked in 33 runners.

Advantage: Yankees

Designated hitter - George Springer vs Giancarlo Stanton

This position will likely go to Springer in the ALDS, although if the Blue Jays advance to the ALCS and Bichette is healthy, Bichette will slot here to give him less strain on his knee. That will move Springer to left field, because the Blue Jays need the 31-year-old's bat in the lineup.

Springer has broken out this season, hitting his most home runs (32) and RBIs (84) since the 2019 season. He brings seven years of postseason experience, during which he has performed exceptionally well, hitting 19 home runs and knocking in 38.

Stanton had a productive regular season with 24 home runs and 66 knocked in, but he only played in 77 games due to having offseason elbow surgery and didn't return until June 16. This is his seventeenth postseason trip, where he’s been a massive contributor. Last season, on the way to a World Series trip, he hit seven home runs and knocked in 16.

Advantage: Blue Jays

Starting pitchers

This analysis will be close as both teams have had solid starting pitcher performances this season. The Blue Jays will likely go with Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage, with either Chris Bassitt or Max Scherzer in game four.

Gausman has been elite all season long, but has struggled in his three postseason starts (6.60 ERA). Bieber has been solid since returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery. He's made seven starts and has a 3.57 ERA. Yesavage was called up in September and will make his first postseason start. Lack of experience may hurt the Blue Jays.

The Yankees’ starting pitchers have been up and down all season, but they have only allowed three earned runs in 20 1/3 innings in the Wild Card series. All three runs came off Carlos Rodon. The Yankees have named Luis Gil the starter for game one, with Max Fried, Rodon, and Cam Schlitter starting the following three games.

Advantage: Yankees

Relief pitchers

Both teams’ bullpens are the weaker part of their pitching staff, so you'll likely see the starters go deep into the game if possible. The Blue Jays had the 16th-ranked bullpen in ERA (3.98), but their performances were inconsistent throughout the season. Their closer, Jeff Hoffman, had a 4.37 ERA during the regular season, but had a 0.84 ERA down the stretch.

Seranthony Domínguez came over at the trade deadline from the Orioles and had a solid showing with a 3.00 ERA in the second half, but fellow trade acquisition from the Minnesota Twins, Louis Varland, struggled in the second half (4.94). However, he had six scoreless innings in seven final appearances down the stretch.

The Yankees had the 23rd bullpen in ERA (4.37) and showed the struggles in game one of the Wild Card series when Luke Weaver gave up two earned runs on two hits and a walk without getting an out after Max Fried went 6 1/3 innings. David Bednar also gave up an earned run off two hits in 2/3 innings. Watch for the starters to go as deep as possible so they don't have to rely on the bullpen as much.

Advantage: Blue Jays