Which Blue Jays could regress in 2025?

While the Toronto Blue Jays had a bit of a down year in 2025, there's still a decent amount of players on the roster who are coming off superb 2024 campaigns — some of whom even produced career years.

But that could end up working against some players this year, as it could be a challenge for them to repeat their strong performances.

As a result, let’s take a look at four Blue Jays players that could be due for a regression in 2025.

Which Blue Jays are due for a regression in 2025?

José Berríos 

After spending the previous couple of seasons in the shadow of team ace Kevin Gausman, Berríos rose to the occasion last season and was perhaps the Jays’ most reliable starter.

Berríos was one of the few Blue Jays' pitchers who had a good season. He put together a strong 2024 campaign in which he registered a career-high 16 wins to go along with a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 153 strikeouts in 192 1/3 innings pitched.

There were still some worrisome trends in his game, however. Berríos’ FIP was an alarming 4.72 and his home run per fly ball rate was at 15.0 percent. Those were both his highest numbers in the category since his rookie season in 2016. Add in a low BABIP of .256 and perhaps Berríos’ success was more about luck than anything else.

As a result, Steamer projections has the 30-year-old right-hander regressing a bit in 2025 with an 11-12 losing record and a bloated 4.29 ERA. Berríos is a key member of Toronto's bullpen, so any drop in success from him could hurt Toronto's chances of making the postseason.

Bowden Francis

It sure was a tale of two halves last year for Francis. After struggling as a starter and reliever in the first half of 2024, the 28-year-old pitcher came back to the ballclub as a completely different player following the MLB trade deadline. Gone was the inconsistent, wild version of Francis, who was instead replaced with a surprising, never-seen-before Cy Young-esque version of Francis.

Francis had a remarkable end to the season, as he posted a stellar 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .140 batting average to go along with 58 strikeouts in 65 innings in his final 11 outings.

That impressive stretch of baseball included him coming dangerously close to tossing two no-hitters. Not only did he look confident and commanding on the mound, but it also seemed like hitters had a hard time catching up to his stuff.

And while the end of Francis' season was great, it would be practically impossible for him to keep that up across an entire season. As a result, there’s no question that he will regress a bit to the mean this coming year.

But ZiPS projections still has the 28-year-old right-hander recording a decent 8-6 record with a respectable 3.92 ERA and 1.0 fWAR, which should be decent enough for a back-end starter for the Jays’ rotation this season.

Jeff Hoffman

As one of the Jays’ key free agent signings this offseason, Hoffman will be looked upon as the anchor in the Blue Jays' bullpen after Toronto's relief corp had a tough showing in 2024.

Hoffman is coming off the best two-season stretch of his career where he compiled an impressive 8-5 record with a 2.28 ERA and a whopping 158 strikeouts in 118 2/3 innings with the Phillies. On top of that, Hoffman was a first-time All-Star last year, amassing 10 saves to go along with a 2.17 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

However, Jays fans should temper their expectations in Hoffman’s first season with the club. First of all he's struggled a bit against American League opponents last year year as evidenced by his 2.87 ERA in 16 appearances against the Junior Circuit. So it seems like his overall numbers likely will take a little hit in the gauntlet of the AL East.

Secondly, the Jays will likely use Hoffman in high-leverage situations in 2025. He filled in as the Phillies closer last year after his teammate José Alvarado struggled in his first season in the role, and a similar adjustment could be in store for Hoffman this year/

Finally there''s the case of his failed physicals this offseason. Any potential underlying ailment that hasn’t been cleared up could be a slight cause for concern and could potentially affect his overall effectiveness to some degree in 2025.

To help further support such a potential regression, Steamer projections have Hoffman and his ERA ballooning to 3.28 this season to go along with an fWAR of 0.8. In addition, his strikeout rate is predicted to drop from 12.08 batters-per-nine innings to 10.95 along with a projected increase in his walk rate.

It's worth pointing out that his projected numbers are actually quite decent in comparison to what most of Toronto's relievers put up during the distarious 2024 season. However, Toronto likely won’t be getting the shutdown version of Hoffman that we saw over the past two seasons.

Anthony Santander

Finally, we have perhaps the Jays’ biggest move this winter in their signing of Santander. It's no secret that Toronto's offense has struggled with power over the past couple seasons, but that should hopefully change this year thanks Santander's bat being in the middle of the lineup.

After all, the 30-year-old outfielder is coming off his best MLB season where he put up career highs in home runs (44), runs scored (91) and RBI (102). In doing so, he became an All-Star for the first time in his MLB career, while taking home his first Silver Slugger Award as well.

There's a chance we could see even more production this year from Santander since he'll likely be sandwiched between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. However there's also the possibility that Santander was able to put up such numbers last year due to the fact that he was playing his heart out in the hopes of landing a big contract in free agency.

On top of that, even Steamer projections have the star outfielder regressing and hitting just 34 home runs with an fWAR of 2.6.

In addition, Santander has not been known to be an elite defender throughout his baseball career. In his past three seasons playing in the outfield, he has registered a less-than-stellar DRS of -11 and an Outs Above Average mark of -8. Those defensive numbers will likely only get worse as he ages. As a result, the Jays will likely need to turn Santander into a full-time DH at some point over his five-year contract.

It may seem worrisome to find two of the Jays’ key offseason signings on this list since the were brought in to help turn things around after a down year.

However, on the bright side, both Hoffman and Santander had spectacular campaigns in 2024, so they should still have successful seasons this year even if they regress a little bit.