Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 16 (Jays have edge on mound)

May 4, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34)
May 4, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees got the better of the Blue Jays on Monday night in the series opener by way of two Aaron Judge home runs, but will it keep up on Tuesday against Toronto's best pitcher?

Kevin Gausman toes the rubber for Toronto on Tuesday night in hopes of stopping the bleeding for the Blue Jays. He'll face a streaking Yankees lineup that will hope for some consistency on the mound by way of Domingo German.

German has struggled this season and is sure to have his hands full with an elite Blue Jays lineup, but that's noted in the odds, so how should we attack this game from a betting perspective?

Here are the odds:

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total

Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick

Gausman has been fantastic this season, and probably should have better results. He has a 3.38 ERA that is supported by a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 2.31, meaning that he has had some unlucky results once the ball is in play. However, he's been an elite pitcher all year long, striking out the most batters per nine innings this year (12.6) and punching out nearly 10 batters for every walk.

While the Yankees lineup is starting to come alive, it still pales in comparison to the Blue Jays, who are top 10 in on-base percentage while the Yanks check in outside the top 20. Further, the Blue Jays will face a far worse pitcher in German, who has struggled with his control all season, walking three batters per nine and allowing more than a home run per nine.

New York got the series opening win, but I like Gausman to shut it down on Tuesday night while the Blue Jays tee off on German.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.