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Vladdy becomes first Blue Jay to hit 30+ HR three times prior to his 26th birthday

Now it's time to lock him up and build around him.
Charles Kime
Charles Kime

Jays Journal

Toronto Blue Jays v Texas Rangers / Sam Hodde/GettyImages

For the third time in his six year MLB-career, Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has reached the 30 home run mark, and sits just one RBI shy of reaching 100 for the second time with nine games to play. Guerrero launched two homers to power the Blue Jays to a 4-0 win over Texas on Thursday, taking his 2024 season OPS up to .951, 69% better than MLB average.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the 25-year-old Guerrero after a slow start this year. On the morning of June 1, he had only five home runs and 25 RBI, with a .787 OPS through the first 56 games of the season. That power outage played a big part in Toronto’s 27-29 record at the time, which had dropped them 11.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL East.

Since the start of June, Vladdy has belted 25 homers with 74 RBI. That ties him for 5th in MLB in home runs since then with the likes of Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez, and the 5th most RBI. The guys ahead of him? Likely National League MVP Shohei Ohtani, who went off Thursday to reach 50/50 for both home runs and stolen bases, and probable American League MVP Aaron Judge, who has 53 home runs and 136 RBI on the season.

Since his infamous haircut on June 19, Vlad is second in baseball behind only Judge with a wRC+ of 209, i.e. he’s 109% better than the MLB-average on weighted runs created. His fWAR of 4.4 since then trails only Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., and Francisco Lindor, all of whom will be MVP finalists in 2024.

Guerrero’s power surge has placed him in the AL MVP-finalist conversation behind Judge and Witt, alongside the likes of Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson and José Ramírez. It’s also remarkable given how little protection he’s had in the Blue Jays batting lineup in 2024; Toronto only has 153 home runs season-to-date, which ranks 25th in MLB. Their .708 team OPS ranks 15th.

Manager John Schneider has pencilled him 3rd in the order for 114 games this year, and 2nd in 35 games. With a combined cleanup hitter slash line behind him of only .247/.329/.364 for an OPS of .693 — with only 12 home runs and 67 RBI, opposing teams have effectively been able to pitch around Vlad. The 5th batter in Toronto’s lineup has an OPS of .749, while the 6th batter has an OPS of .668 for the season.

So in a tough season for Blue Jays fans, Guerrero’s bat has been a feel good story. As Jays Journal's Eric Treuden wrote last month, “The superstar is already in place, now it's time to lock him up and then build around him.”

There are good templates for a long-term extension for Vlad, starting with the 10-year, $313.5M contract extension that Boston Red Sox star Rafael Devers signed ahead of last season entering his age-26 season. It’s time to lock him up so that Blue Jays fans have a generational talent to get invested in and cheer for the next decade.

Charles Kime

Charles Kime

My true baseball consciousness began with the great Blue Jays teams of the mid to late 1980s with Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, Tom Henke, George Bell, Lloyd Moseby, Jesse Barfield, Tony Fernández and friends. My first ever game was at Exhibition Stadium, but I’ve also watched games from the RF porch of the old Tigers Stadium, and from both the old and new Yankee Stadium. My most memorable game was Game 5 of the 2001 ALDS when Soriano tied the game, and then Justice’s home run and Mariano put it away to help the Yankees beat Oakland 5-3 to win an emotional series that year. The stands were literally shaking. Follow @CharlieKime1 on X.