Toronto Blue Jays: Where they stand in the AL East after acquiring Daulton Varsho

With 62 days left until Spring Training and just under 100 days until Opening Day 2023, the Toronto Blue Jays continue to radically alter their lineup this offseason, trading starting left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a blockbuster deal for 26 year old, left-handed hitting outfielder/catcher Daulton Varsho.

Could this be a move similar to the December 1990 trade made by then-General Manager Pat Gillick for OF Devon White, who went on to win five Gold Gloves and two World Series championships as a Blue Jay?

The move continues the clear pattern this offseason of upgrading the Blue Jays run prevention ability - at the expense of offense. Right fielder Teoscar Hernández (2.8 bWAR in 2022 with an OPS+ of 127, BABIP .335 and wRC+ of 129) was traded last month to Seattle for reliever Erik Swanson, who can generate ‘swing and miss’ to the tune of 70 strikeouts in only 53.2 innings pitched in 2022. He struck out 34% of batters faced this season (11.7/9 innings) versus the MLB average of only 22.1%, and only walked 4.9% of hitters faced, with a minuscule 1.68 ERA.

Free agent Chris Bassitt was signed to be the No. 3 starter in the rotation. He’s elite at generating weak contact, with an average exit velocity off the opponents’ bat of only 85.7mph - good for 95th percentile in MLB - and a hard hit percentage of only 32.8% versus the MLB average 35.8%. While his ERA and FIP at 3.42 and 3.66, respectively, were higher in 2022 than the starter he replaces in the Jays’ rotation, Ross Stripling (3.01, 3.11), he’s also been more consistent in pitching 5.9 innings per start on average since 2020 over 68 starts, and 6.1 innings on average in his 30 starts in 2022; Strip only averaged just over 5 innings per start this year, and averaged 4.8 innings/start over 45 starts as a Blue Jay since 2020.

Free agent center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (2022 bWAR 1.1, OPS+ 89, BABIP .290, wRC+ 90) was signed to a one year, $9M deal to bring his three-time Gold Glove winning platinum glove to Toronto. He’ll likely push George Springer to a corner outfield spot, which will be an upgrade over both Hernández and Gurriel defensively.

Hernández had a -3 defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2022 and a cumulative -8 since 2020. He was a -5 in terms of outs above average (OAA) in 2022. Gurriel posted a DRS of +3 over 896.2 innings played in LF this year after +6 last season. Springer is a cumulative -5 DRS for Toronto in CF since 2021, but has a cumulative DRS of +12 in RF since his rookie season in 2014. He’ll likely be shifted to an outfield corner more often in 2023 to reduce the wear-and-tear on his joints, allowing Kiermaier to patrol center, where he has a cumulative DRS of +134 since his rookie year in 2014, including +25 since 2020. He’s been good for total OAA of +71 since 2016.

And now the Jays have acquired OF/C Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks, which further strengthens the outfield defense. Varsho, who was a finalist for the NL Gold Glove in RF, tied for second among MLB outfielders with a DRS of +19 this season, including +14 in 541.2 innings played in RF (OAA +10) and +5 in 378.2 innings played in CF (OAA +8). His OAA of +18 led all MLB outfielders. He fills a big need in the hitting lineup as well with his left-handedness, and was good for a bWAR of 4.9 in 2022, with an OPS+ of 109, BABIP of .269 and wRC+ of 106 with 27 home runs in a much weaker Arizona lineup. He should benefit from better protection in the Jays’ batting lineup, where he replaces Gurriel’s 2.2 bWAR, OPS+ 113, BABIP .346 and wRC+ of 114.

Payroll Implications

By subtracting the one year and $5.8M left on the Gurriel contract, of which the AAV of $3.1M counts against the luxury tax payroll, RosterResource puts the updated Blue Jays luxury tax payroll just above the CBT threshold of $233M. Varsho qualified for Super Two status this offseason with his 2.128 years of MLB service time, which makes him eligible for arbitration this offseason even though he hasn’t accumulated three years of service time yet. Per RosterResource, he’s projected to earn $2.8M in 2023.

Amongst teams in the AL East, the Blue Jays trail only the NY Yankees’ $292M estimated CBT payroll. Arguably the Jays front office have done exactly what they said they would at the beginning of the offseason in focusing on run prevention and pitching, as well as on improving the balance in the Blue Jays batting lineup. But including in Gurriel in the trade for Varsho could be construed as a luxury tax driven move?

Have the Blue Jays changed the pecking order in the AL East?

While the Blue Jays have certainly had an active and so far successful offseason, the Yankees have spent close to $600M since November; re-signing AL MVP Aaron Judge (nine years, $360M), adding a co-ace to their rotation in Carlos Ródon (six years, $162M), while also bringing back both 1B Anthony Rizzo (two years, $40M) and reliever Tommy Kahnle (two years, $11.5M).

The oddsmakers still favor New York over the Blue Jays to win the 2023 AL East pennant, and for Houston to defend their 2022 ALCS title again in 2023. But that still puts Toronto’s odds ahead of Tampa Bay, as well as the other ALDS teams this year in Cleveland and Seattle. Perhaps the projected Yankee rotation of Gerrit Cole, Ródon, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas gives them a slight betting edge over Toronto, which is expected to start Berríos (highest ERA amongst qualified starters in 2022) and one of the ineffective Mitch White and Yusei Kikuchi more than 40% of the time next season. The Yankees also return their 2022 offense which hit 254 home runs and scored 807 runs in 2022. They will also get a boost from star reliever Michael King and infielder DJ LeMahieu both returning from season ending injuries.

Tampa Bay hasn’t been idle either. They’ve signed free agent starter Zach Eflin to a three-year, $40M deal to join a starting rotation that will see a full return by former ace Tyler Glasnow, and already features ace Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. Taj Bradley is one of the top pitching prospects in MLB, and they have enviable, high-ceiling starting depth in Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming.

The Baltimore Orioles are also ascendant given they’ll add the No. 1 prospect in baseball in Gunnar Henderson, as well as the top pitching prospect in Grayson Rodriguez to a roster that already includes the runner-up in the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year vote in switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman. They’ve also signed starter Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10M deal, traded for catching depth in James McCann from the Mets, and added righty Mychal Givens to their bullpen on a one-year, $5M contract. Core players like 28 year old RF Anthony Santander and 1B (noted Jays killer) Ryan Mountcastle, who is still only 25 years old, continue to improve.

Almost Ready for Opening Day

However, despite the $233M CBT payroll, some obvious holes still remain. Three left-handed hitting bench bats are gone from last year, leaving utilityman Cavan Biggio as the lone lefty bench bat. Potential solutions there like Michael Brantley are off the board, although the Jays could look at recently released left-handed batters like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer as potential experienced (and cheap!) bench bats given the Reds (two years, $22M left on the Moustakas contract) and Padres (three years, $39M left on their Hosmer contract) will still be paying most of their salaries in 2023 and beyond.

And apart from Jordan Romano and potential in-house solutions like Yosver Zuleta and Nate Pearson, none of the other relievers on the current roster throw 100mph, which seemed to be a key ingredient to lock down opponents in the 2022 postseason.

There may also be an apparent payroll constraint, despite assurances from the front office that the $233M CBT threshold for 2023 would not dictate payroll. The Jays have now missed out on a number of free agents that they were targeting, including starters Justin Verlander, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney and Kyle Gibson, reliever Kenley Jansen, as well as outfielders Cody Bellinger, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto. They dumped Gurriel's $5.8M salary when they added Varsho’s projected $2.8M arbitration award.

Yankees and Astros remain the class of the American League

The Blue Jays improved their 26-man roster by adding Daulton Varsho to the mix. Not only does he help to improve the outfield defense dramatically, but by also subtracting the right-handed hitting Gurriel, it also helps to balance out the lineup with his power-hitting left-handed bat. The cost was indeed steep as Gabriel Moreno has franchise catcher potential, but the Jays are much closer to challenging the Yankees for the AL East pennant today than they were yesterday.

They still have some work to do to be ready for Opening Day and to catch New York and Houston, as well as to separate themselves from Tampa, Seattle and others in the American League. However, at this stage it will be minor additions like higher ceiling starting pitching depth (which could be solved internally assuming they don’t trade Ricky Tiedemann), bench depth (Jurickson Profar? Hosmer? Moustakas?), and a few flame-throwing, high-leverage relievers (Zulueta and Pearson?). This is a much more competitive roster than the one that lost the 2022 ALWC series in such heartbreaking fashion to Seattle this past October. Let’s go Jays!