Padres vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Wednesday, July 19

Jose Berrios has bounced back this year, but the Toronto bullpen might be the reason that they end up in the win column tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17)
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) / Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

So, I guess Alek Manoah isn’t fixed.

Yesterday, he went three innings and allowed four runs in a 9-1 Toronto Blue Jays loss to the San Diego Padres. Today, the Blue Jays will turn to Jose Berrios who is fixed to make his 20th start of the year. Berrios is 8-6 with a 3.41 ERA for the 53-42 Blue Jays and will be opposed by Yu Darvish. 

The Padres will go for the series win behind Darvish who is 6-6 with a 4.65 ERA in 16 starts this year. San Diego is 45-50 after the win yesterday and still have a lot of work to do in the NL West. 

It’s Darvish vs. Berrios in Game 2 of this three-game interleague set in Toronto, and the Blue Jays are home favorites. 

Padres vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total

Padres vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick

The Blue Jays are only 5.5 games behind the Rays and they need to win today to avoid dropping this series to the under .500 Padres. Jose Berrios is a better option to have on the mound than Manoah because unlike Manoah he’s found his way back to his vintage form.

Yet, his expected ERA is all the way up at 4.59 which is 30th percentile in baseball and much worse than Darvish’s 3.65 xERA. 

San Diego could have the advantage on the mound, though both Darvish and Berrios were very good last time out. If they pitch to a stalemate early in the game, then it will come down to the bullpen and that’s where the Blue Jays have a big advantage. For the year they are top five in bullpen ERA, and since June 1, they are seventh with an ERA of 3.62. The Padres are 23rd over that period at 4.64. 

Offensively these teams are pretty similar right now. Both are top ten in OPS since the All-Star break. It’s hard to find a big difference between these teams at the moment, except the fact that the Blue Jays have eight more wins and a better bullpen.

I’ll take Toronto. 

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