Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Monday, July 31 (How to bet over/under)

Here's why you should target the total in Monday's AL East series opener.

Jul 15, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) rounds first base
Jul 15, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) rounds first base / Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays are chasing the Baltimore Orioles atop the AL East, but will have the opportunity to make up ground starting on Monday, the first of a four-game series.

Toronto is set to start Chris Bassitt in Monday's series opener against Baltimore's Kyle Gibson. Both pitchers have some concerning numbers heading into this one against formidable opposing lineups. How should we bet this potential playoff preview?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick

The Blue Jays are in good shape against Gibson, who has allowed a ton of contact, but has benefitted form it not leaving the park.

Gibson has allowed opponents to hit .308 on batted balls in play and more than nine hits per nine innings, but has a low home run to fly ball percentage of only 8%. Gibson's home run rate being so low has avoided a ton of blowup outings, but he has put a ton of pressure on himself to work himself out of jams.

The Blue Jays are a top five hitting team over the last 15 days, per MLB.com, hitting .268 as a club. I like Toronto's chances of putting up a decent run total on Monday.

However, Bassitt has concerning underlying metrics heading into Monday's matchup. He has a 3.91 ERA mark, but has an xERA of 4.46 and has seen his home run rate tick up to 1.35 per nine this season. He is walking nearly three batters per nine as well against a Baltimore team that is disciplined at the plate.

I'm eyeing the over on Monday between two pitchers standing on shaky ground.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.