Brewers vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Thursday, June 1 (Gausman will keep the ball in the yard)

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34)
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Last night, the MLB’s only Canadian team got beat by one of its own. Quebec native Abraham Toro hit a two-run home run in his first start of the season for the Milwaukee Brewers to help his team take down the Toronto Blue Jays 4-2. With the win, Milwaukee maintained their one-game lead over Pittsburgh in the NL Central at 29-26. Toronto is 29-27, fourth in the AL East.

As the calendar turns to June, tonight will be the finale of this three-game interleague series north of the border. For the rubber match, the Brewers will go with 5-4 Freddy Peralta who carries a 4.64 ERA against 3-3 Kevin Gausman with his 3.03 ERA.

Despite taking the road win last night, the Brewers are big underdogs in Toronto for Game 3. Let’s take a look at the odds.

Brewers vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total

Brewers vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick

Playing half of their games in a hitter friendly park, the Brewers have always been a team that is offensively built around the long ball. This year, they are 24-10 when they hit a home run compared to 5-16 when they don’t. That’s not great news against Kevin Gausman who is allowing 0.8 home runs per nine innings, the second lowest of his career and in line with last season in which he allowed just 15 home runs across 174.2 innings. The Toronto bullpen has allowed 25 homers this year which is around league average. 

If the Brewers can’t go deep then they’ll have a tough time getting the win, but they’ll also have a tough time manufacturing runs. That brings the total into play as potentially a better bet than either side. Freddy Peralta allowed 10 runs in his last start which lasted just 2.1 innings, but only four were earned and Peralta’s expected ERA is 4.12, much better than his 4.64 ERA. 

Over the last seven days the Brewers are 29th in OPS and have scored just 15 runs in six games, so despite the over being 4-0 in Peralta’s last four starts, I feel strongly that the under will hit in Game 3 of this interleague series. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change