Braves vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Friday, May 12 (Bet UNDER)

May 5, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt (40) delivers a
May 5, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt (40) delivers a / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays and Atlanta Braves start a marquee weekend series in Toronto on Friday with its prized free agent signing starting to look the part.

Chris Bassitt had a slow start to the year, allowing nine runs in his first start, but has allowed 10 in the following six starts. Bassitt is still walking a lot of batters, but has limited hard hit contact and is starting to prove to be worth his flashy contract this offseason.

However, he will face off against emerging star and NL Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider. The Blue Jays are home underdogs against Strider and the best team in the National League Braves, can Bassitt hold up?

Let's check out the odds for this interleague matchup:

Braves vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total

Braves vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick

The Braves lineup is elite, top five in several key hitting categories such as batting average, slugging percentage and wRC+, which quantifies the quality of run scoring chances generated at the plate.

However, I'm going to trust Bassitt at home to show up and limit the damage this Braves lineup can generate. I believe that the Blue Jays right hander is being undervalued as the sample size is still small enough for his first start to anchor his numbers, but he has allowed a batting averge of .152 in the six starts since.

Bassitt can show up, but he will also face arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season in Strider. He is leading Major League Baseball in strike out rate, punching out more than 15 batters per nine innings. No, the Blue Jays don't swing and miss a ton, sixth lowest strikeout rate, but Strider is a strikeout machine while generating no hard contact.

Strider goes deep into games, he hasn't pitched less than five innings in seven starts, and I believe he will have the edge on Toronto's lineup.

I think Bassitt is being undervalued, but against Strider he may come up a bit short on the mound. Instead, I'll go for the under in what should be a pitcher's duel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.