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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Who has the advantage in a position-by-position breakdown?
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox had very different seasons in 2022. The Jays won 92 games and made the playoffs, whilst the Red Sox were left looking up at their rivals from the bottom of the AL East.
In an effort to boost their fortunes, both teams have made moves in the offseason. Toronto have been more adventurous, bringing in free agents Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt, whilst trading for Dalton Varsho and Erik Swanson. Whilst Boston signed former Dodgers stalwart, Justin Turner, and dipped into the overseas market to sign Masataka Yashida.
With the first meeting of the two teams scheduled for the start of May in Boston, it’ll be a while before they face off on the field, but how do they match up on paper?
Catchers
There aren’t many teams who can boast a catcher pairing as strong as the Jays in 2023. Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk are both effective with the bat and behind the plate. As a 2022 All-Star, Kirk possessed a 1.09 BB/K ration, a .372 OBP and hit 14 home runs. Jansen had an injury hit campaign but still managed to hit 15 home runs in 72 games as his offense took a strong step forward.
Former Blue Jay, Reese McGuire is in line to start the year as the primary catcher for the Red Sox. Whilst he did play the most games of his career and slightly improve his batting average last year, McGuire feels like a stopgap for Boston and he isn’t likely to be a big contributor in 2023. Backing him up is Connor Wong who looks to have a bit more power to his game than McGuire, but is still very new at the MLB level.
Advantage: Blue Jays
First Base
The Red Sox seem likely to platoon Tristan Casas and Bobby Dalbec at first base, depending on the best matchup on any given day. As a former first round pick, Casas has a lot of hype around him off the back of some impressive AAA stats and a few fleeting glimpses at the major league level last season. With a hard hit percentage of 44% after his call up last year, the 22 year old lefty looks like he could be a nice power option in the middle of the Sox lineup.
Dalbec split time between first and third in 2022, as he played his second full season as a big league ball player. Offensively he was disappointing, putting up a .682 OPS and regressing in most offensive stats. With Justin Turner added to the roster, it’s likely he’ll only appear at first base, and largely against left handed pitching - which he has put up a career slash line of .268/.333/.522 against.
Despite having his own mini slump in 2022, neither Casas or Dalbec are likely to come close to the production of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this season. FanGraphs projects Guerrero to hit 38 home runs whilst registering an OPS of .923. The Jays have also signed Brandon Belt, who will likely serve in the DH spot whilst providing solid cover for Vladdy if needed.
Advantage: Blue Jays
Second Base
Neither side appear to have huge expectations in terms of offense from the second base position this year.
Whit Merrifield seems likely to start for the Jays, but in reality this could turn into a ‘ride the hot hand’ case with Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio also in the mix. Following his arrival in Toronto, Merrifield took a little while to warm up before reverting back to his normal self - ending the second half of the season with a .750 OPS and a couple of clutch hits as the Jays kept themselves in the playoff picture.
After a tremendous start to the 2022 season, Espinal dropped off through July and August. He will still provide a strong defensive option in the infield, whilst coming up with the occasional useful knock - but it feels like Merrifield’s job to lose.
Christian Arroyo should start the year as Boston’s everyday second baseman after a pretty solid campaign last year. He posted a .286 average, the highest of his fledgling career, hitting six round trippers and knocking in 36 runs across 87 games. Like the Jays, it’s a whole lot of average but Arroyo will no doubt continue to develop as a player.
Advantage: Tie
Shortstop
Bo Bichette is a key part of the Blue Jays offense, as he proved in September/October 2022 with a .406 average, seven home runs and 27 RBI. There remain some concerns about his defense, but there won’t be many people that doubt the impact he has on his team.
If the Red Sox had Trevor Story available to start the season this may have been a tighter outcome, but with Kiké Hernández penciled in as the starting short stop, it’s clearly advantage Bichette. Hernandez played seven games at the position last season and, although he has had previous experience playing there, it feels like a very makeshift solution for Boston.
Advantage: Blue Jays
Third Base
After a pretty drab offseason, the signing of Rafael Devers to a long term extension appears to have given the Red Sox faithful a reason to get excited ahead of Spring Training. With a strong hard hit percentage and the ability to hit to all corners of the field, the Dominican native is easily the most important part of Boston’s lineup. Add in Justin Turner as a strong veteran backup, and the Sox are looking very strong at the hot corner.
The Blue Jays have their own hard hitter at third base. Matt Chapman is one of the MLB’s premiere defenders, with a career UZR of 49.8 and multiple gold gloves, but he’s also capable of making clutch plays on offense. With 27 home runs last season he matched Devers, but he did lag behind in most other categories.
Given the depth they have at the position, this feels like a very narrow advantage for the Red Sox.
Advantage: Red Sox
Outfield
Clearly the Blue Jays’ outfield has undergone a massive overhaul over the offseason. The addition of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho signals a nod towards defensive improvement from the front office. However, they do boast one of the better lead off hitters in the league in George Springer.
If Springer can stay healthy all season, he’ll be by far and away the most impactful offensive player between the two teams - but that is a big ‘if’. Opposite him at left field, Varsho should contribute effectively as well, especially if he can replicate his 2022 stats (27 home runs, 74 RBI and 16 stolen bases). There’s also an injury question mark around Kiermaier, but if stays in one piece ‘the Outlaw’ can bring his impressive range to the outfield of the refurbished Rogers Centre.
Jarren Duran had a tough start to life in the big leagues, especially after losing a fly ball in the Fenway lights against the Jays. However, his development will be the key to the future prospects of the Red Sox’s outfield. New addition Masataka Yoshida brings a reputation as a good contact hitter with him to Boston, and he’ll most likely slot into the lead off spot from opening day onwards.
With Duran and Yoshida relatively untried in the MLB, 26 year old Alex Verdugo now takes on the role of leader in the Red Sox outfield. Verdugo is a slightly above average hitter who lacks a little on defense. However, he’ll be crucial to the success of his team in 2023, as he possesses the most proven bat in the middle of the Red Sox order.
Advantage: Blue Jays
Starting Rotation
The Red Sox rotation is solid, especially after the recent free agent addition of Corey Kluber. The former New York Yankee and Tampa Bay Ray is a reliable arm, who walked only 3.8% of batters through 164 innings last season. He joins the ever dangerous Chris Sale, Garret Whitlock, Nick Pavetta and James Paxton in the FanGraphs projected starting five.
Since 2019 Sale has succumbed to numerous injuries, hampering his ability to deliver as Boston’s ace. However, with a career K% of 30.6 and an 11.07 K/9 he is still very much the main guy on their roster. Garret Whitlock, on the other hand, was moved to the Red Sox bullpen after a poor start to the 2022 season. He bounced back and finished the season with a 2.75 ERA as a reliever, which will seemingly earn him another shot at a starting gig.
However, the Jays definitely have the upper hand with a rotation led by Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. The free agency addition of Chris Bassit certainly helps things, and Ross Atkins will be desperate to see Jose Berrios bounce back after he signed a considerable contract extension prior to the 2022 season.
The big question for the Jays is the fifth starter which, at the time of writing, seems like it’ll fall to either Mitch White or Yusei Kikuchi. Neither enjoyed the most positive of campaigns last season, and Kikuchi in particular looked completely devoid of confidence at times. It’ll be interesting to see if the return of Hyun Jin Ryu sees Toronto move to a six man rotation.
Advantage: Blue Jays
Relievers
The Jays’ bullpen has been a weakness over the last couple of years, leading them to rely heavily on Jordan Romano. Whilst Romano has excelled, the addition of Erik Swanson will hopefully provide him with the support that Toronto fans have been crying out for. With a K% of 34 and a .091 WHIP in 2022, Swanson will elevate the quality available to John Schneider in high leverage situations.
With the Jays making one addition to their bullpen so far, the Red Sox have taken more drastic measures - adding Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodríguez. As the team ranked 26th in the MLB in bullpen ERA in 2022, this feels like a necessary move for the Sox.
Jansen in particular is a huge addition, and he’ll be looking to add another 40+ save season to his résumé. The former Dodger throws a nasty cutter, which helped him to a 32.7% K rate in 2022. Red Sox fans will be hoping their team improves enough as a whole to give him the opportunity to rack up those saves this season.
Advantage: Red Sox
Next. An interview with former Blue Jays INF Danny Valencia. dark