Blue Jays vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Monday, June 19 (Berrios continues to be undervalued)

Jun 14, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17)
Jun 14, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays dropped the last two games of its weekend series against the Texas Rangers, but remain in competition for the American League Wild Card.

The Blue Jays start a series against another wild card contender, but from the National League in the Miami Marlins. Toronto will hope that Jose Berrios can maintain his elite form against a potentially overvalued opponent in the Marlins, who have some concerning underlying metrics.

Here are the odds for the series opener:

Blue Jays vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Blue Jays vs. Marlins prediction and pick

The Marlins are 10 games over .500, but this team is playing well above expectations as the team is 23rd in run differential with a -24 mark so far. The team has skated by to date and I believe that the team will be in over its head against a pitcher like Berrios, who has been on point for the past several weeks.

Over his last five starts, Berrios has an ERA of 1.11 while limiting his walk rate and pitching balls lower in the strike zone that are generating ground balls as opposed to hard contact that has led to him allowing a high rate of home runs.

The Blue Jays have a significant offensive edge, top five in metrics like batting average and slugging percentage and will be able to outpace a Marlins offense that is around league average in those metrics. Not to mention, the Marlins will start Bryan Hoeing, who is a second year pro with decent metrics that are supported by worse ones. He has a 3.12 ERA that is met with a 4.13 xERA.

I'm going to trust Berrios to continue to pitch like an All-Star and for the Blue Jays to get back on track.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.