Today is the series finale between the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins down in Miami and it’ll be a showdown of big name starting pitchers. Kevin Gausman who has actually pitched like an ace this year and Sandy Alcantara, who hasn’t lived up to his Cy Young Award from a year ago.
Gausman comes into his 16th start of the season at 6-3 with a 3.01 ERA. Alcantara on the other hand has struggled to a 2-5 record with a 4.97 ERA. Let’s get into the odds for Game 3 on a getaway day in Miami.
Blue Jays vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Blue Jays vs. Marlins prediction and pick
Kevin Gausman had a shaky start back on June 11, six runs given up to the Twins, but last time out he showed that was a total aberration. He surrendered only one run to arguably the best lineup in the big leagues in the Texas Rangers. Gausman is absolutely nails and his 2.74 fielding independent pitching (FIP) reflects that.
I have no worries about what Gausman will do against the Miami lineup even with Luis Arraez hitting up around .400 again.
However, I have plenty of concerns about Alcantara. His changeup just isn’t an effective pitch anymore after being maybe the most deadly weapon in baseball last year. Now that his changeup is hittable his strikeout rate has dropped, his walk rate has increased and his hard hit rate is way up.
It feels like the name recognition with Alcanatara is a big reason that the Blue Jays aren’t bigger favorites in this one. They have won all of Gausman’s last five starts and are 9-6 in his outings this season. I’ll take Toronto to win the finale.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change