How trading for a Hall of Fame pitcher would have re-written Blue Jays history

Randy Johnson was almost a Toronto Blue Jay. It is a story that has floated around for almost 30 years, but it’s sparked interest once again this week. Hall of Fame General Manager Pat Gilick joined John Morosi on his "The Road to Cooperstown" podcast and the architect of the Blue Jays World Series championships rehashed the story. 

The coles notes version is this: Gillick had a trade in place with Seattle Mariners General Manager Woody Woodward to land Johnson. But he also had something lined up with the
Oakland Athletics involving a similar trade package centered around pitching prospect Steve Karsay. When Athletics GM Sandy Alderson told Gillick he would take the deal and send him the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time in Rickey Henderson, Gillick tried to reach Woodward but couldn't get a hold of him. Gillick told Anderson, ‘you’ve got a deal’ and the rest is history.

So either way the Blue Jays wound up with a future Hall of Famer and adding Henderson to the top of an already potent lineup just deepened the Blue Jays batting order, en route to the 1993 World Series title. 

But what if Gillick was able to complete the deal with Woodward? How different would Blue Jays history be?

Johnson remained with the Seattle Mariners until they traded him in 1998 to Houston, with one year left on his contract. It’s not an apples to apples comparison but lets see if plugging Johnson into Toronto’s rotation until 1998 would have yielded any history changing results. 

1993

If the Blue Jays acquired Johnson at the deadline instead of Henderson they likely still would have been AL East division champions. They went 35-22 from the start of August to the end of the season. Todd Stottlemyre pitched to a 5.11 ERA in 74 innings pitched in 12 games, while Jack Morris had a 4.69 ERA in 48 innings pitched in eight games. 

Johnson pitched to a 2.52 ERA in 13 games with 121 strikeouts in 96.1 innings pitched. He gave up just seven home runs, facing 387 batters. It’s safe to say that Johnson would have been an improvement in the rotation and the Blue Jays still would be in a great position to capture their second straight World Series title. 

1994

During the strike shortened 1994 season, Johnson went 13-6 with a 3.19 ERA, throwing 172.0 innings and striking out 204 batters. He had a bWAR of 5.5 and an ERA+ of 152. 

Those were better stats than anyone in the Blue Jays rotation that season. Toronto had just one pitcher who had an ERA under 4.00 and that was Pat Hentgen who pitched to a 3.40 ERA with 147 strikeouts in 174.2 innings and accumulated a bWAR of 5.4. 

This season ended up being a wash with the cancellation of the World Series but once again, we’re in a situation where Johnson would likely have helped the Blue Jays finish better than 55-60. 

1995

Johnson won his first Cy Young Award, leading the league with 294 strikeouts, a 193 ERA+, a 2.08 FIP and 1.045 WHIP. His 12.3 K/9 were the highest of his career to that point and so was his 4.52 K/BB rate. 

The Blue Jays pitching staff had a couple of league leaders too. Hentgen led the league with 236 hits allowed, and 114 earned runs. Al Leiter was the only pitcher to have a good season with the Blue Jays, but he walked more hitters than anybody else in the league with 108, and threw 14 wild pitches, also a league high in ‘95. 

The biggest detriment to not having Johnson in 1995, is that the Blue Jays signed David Cone going into the season and he was really good in Toronto. He pitched to a 4.4 bWAR with a 3.38 ERA and was a solid top three rotation option on any team, other than the Blue Jays. The Yankees thought this to, and decided to trade for him at the deadline for  Mike Gordon, Jason Jarvis and Marty Janzen, none of whom had any major impact on the Blue Jays during their tenure. 

With a Johnson, Cone and Leiter combination, maybe Toronto plays better than their 56-88 record.   

1996

Another year where the Blue Jays could have used some help in the rotation. While Hentgen won his one and only Cy Young Award as the ace of the Blue Jays staff, only he and Juan Guzman pitched effectively for the Blue Jays. Hentgen led the league with an 8.6 bWAR and 10 complete games.

He also pitched 265.2 innings, the most in the league and his 0.7 HR/9 rate was better than anyone elses. There’s an argument to be made for Guzman to have gotten some Cy Young recognition as well. He had a 6.7 bWAR and led the league with a 2.93 ERA and 171 ERA+ a 1.124 WHIP, a 7.6 H/9 rate and a 3.11 K/BB ratio. 

What hurts this hindsight review is the fact that Johsnson underwent season ending surgery in May of 1996, so the Blue Jays would not have been able to build upon their 74-88 record regardless. 

1997

The Blue Jays made the splash of the ‘97 offseason when they signed Roger Clemens away from divisional rivals the Boston Red Sox. Clemens went on to win the Cy Young Award with some of the best numbers in his career. He posted a career high 292 strikeouts in 264 innings with a 2.05 ERA and an 11.9 bWAR. Johnson posted numbers that were just behind Clemens’ output. The “Big Unit” had a 2.28 ERA in 213 innings with 291 strikeouts and finished second in the Cy Young voting. 

The Blue Jays went 76-86 finishing fifth in the AL East. Their run differential was only -40 with 694 runs allowed, and 654 runs scored. If we remove the worst pitcher from the Blue Jays rotation in Robert Person (5.61 ERA, 80 earned runs in 128.1 innings) and plug in Johnson’s numbers the Blue Jays run differential is +26. Maybe that’s enough to win a few more games and finish third in the AL East instead of right at the bottom.

It would have been tough to top the 98 win Orioles and the 96 win Yankees, but maybe they would have been better than the Tigers and the Red Sox who won 79 and 78 games respectively. 

You could also make the argument that the Blue Jays would have been even better than that as the top four in the rotation would have consisted of not just Johnson and Clemens, but Hentgen and Woody Williams who both had good years. 

Hentgen accumulated a 5.8 bWAR pitching to a 3.63 ERA while tying Clemens in complete games (9) shutouts (3) and innings pitched (264). He had a 123 ERA+ and a 2.25 K/BB rate. Williams was worth 3.1 bWAR with a 4.35 ERA, throwing 194 innings with 124 strikeouts a 104 ERA+. 

The bullpen was also solid that season. They finished with the fifth best ERA of 3.77, giving up the second least earned runs in the American League (163) and the second least home runs allowed (43).
The Blue Jays had the makings of a good pitching team in 1997 that would have only been better had Johnson been plugged into the equation.  

1998

In 1998, the Blue Jays finally had a winning season finishing 88-74. While they were 26 games behind the AL East division winning Yankees, they were just four back of the Red Sox who clinched the lone wild card spot. They were largely carried by their offense which scored 816 runs but their pitching also carried their own.

In a year that was dominated by offensive statistics, the Blue Jays staff may not have included guys whose numbers jumped off the page (outside of Clemens 8.1 bWAR and 2.65 ERA) but four of their five main starters were pretty much league average, or just slightly better and that might have been enough to surpass the Red Sox.

If the Blue Jays could have plugged Johnson into this rotation they would have gotten a good, but not elite pitcher. Johnson was having a tough time in this offense friendly environment in 1998, as he owned a 4.33 ERA with the Mariners through 23 games, before he was traded to Houston. However, down the stretch with the Astros, he had a 1.28 ERA in 11 games, with 116 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. His overall numbers of a 3.28 ERA  with 329 strikeouts and a 5.7 bWAR, would have been second best behind Clemens in the Blue Jays rotation. 

Regardless of Johnson not being his elite self that season, those numbers may have given the Blue Jays the edge over the Red Sox who had just slightly better pitching statistics than Toronto at the end of the season. The Red Sox had a 4.18 team ERA (second in the AL) while the Blue Jays' owned a 4.28 (third in the AL). They were also second and third respectively in earned runs (667 for Boston, 697 for Toronto), WHIP (1.33 for Boston, 1.39 for Toronto) and batting average against (.255 for Boston, .256 for Toronto). The margin for victory could not have been any closer between these division rivals in '98, and one solid pitcher could have made all the difference.

However, even if Toronto made the postseason, it's unlikely anyone was stopping the 114-win Yankees that year who went on to sweep the World Series against the San Diego Padres, winning their first of three straight championships, and second in three seasons to that point. But that's not to say strange things can't happen in the playoffs, as the 92-win Red Sox were dumped in four games in the ALDS against the 89-win Cleveland Guardians.

What we’ve learned from this experiment is that by plugging Johnson statistics into the Blue Jays rotation from 1993-1998, the closests they would have come to earning a playoff birth would have been in 1998, and they also would still have been favourites to win the World Series in 1993.

But from 1994-1997 the Blue Jays would have needed more help than just Johnson, despite his impressive accolades. While it’s not a true to life study and there would have been so many other factors weighed into this regarding Johnson’s performance and his overall numbers, the fact remains a trade for “The Big Unit” in 1993 would have altered both his and the Blue Jays’ history.