Blue Jays: Areas to focus on with their first pick at the 2022 MLB Draft

After posting a 91-71 record last season, the Toronto Blue Jays own the 23rd overall pick in the upcoming 2022 MLB Draft, slated to take place on July 17th. The Jays’ overall bonus pool balance is $8,367,700 and they own four picks before round #3 begins, as they gained picks #77 and #78 after Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray turned down their respective qualifying offers and signed elsewhere this past offseason.

With so many high picks in the earlier rounds, the Blue Jays will need to balance their budget accordingly through the 20-round process, potentially similar to their 2018 draft strategy when they selected Jordan Groshans with their first pick, signed him for under slot value, and then used those savings on teammate Adam Kloffenstein in the third round.

MLB teams are allowed to go over their allotted bonus pools and are taxed 75% on the overage if they outspend within the 0-5%. While no team in history has gone past the 5% line, any team that wishes to do so will be taxed and lose future draft picks depending on how far they outspend their bonus pool allotment.

The Toronto Blue Jays have 22 picks at the 2022 MLB Draft, and four before round #3 begins, with lots of opportunities to add to the prospect pool and the organizational depth.

Last year, the Blue Jays lost their second-round pick after signing George Springer to a long-term deal and signed 17 of 19 drafted players, with Micah Bucknam and Luke Holman deciding to pursue post-secondary opportunities. The club has already traded away first-round selection Gunnar Hoglund earlier this year in the Matt Chapman deal, but the club snagged some solid prospects in Ricky Tiedemann, Chad Dallas, Irv Carter, and Hayden Juenger amongst others.

Taking into consideration the current Blue Jays roster and organizational depth, let’s take a look at some possible areas or positions the front office could focus on this year when it comes to their first-round selection.

College Level Left-Handed Starter

Last year, the Blue Jays drafted and signed 12 pitchers from the 2021 MLB Draft, restocking the pitching depth within the system. This was a smart move in retrospect considering the Jays are now dealing with top prospect CJ Van Eyk undergoing Tommy John surgery while also trading away Gunnar Hoglund this past Spring Training. Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson have also progressed throughout the system and the Jays have a lot of pitching prospects who are still two to three years away from potentially knocking on the MLB door.

The Jays could consider using their 23rd pick on a college-level arm, one with some experience and who won’t require as much development as a high-school pitcher if the right player is available.  Looking at the starting pitching depth charts and top prospect list, Ricky Tiedemann is the only left-hander really standing out while Nick Allgeyer and Anthony Kay may be considered bullpen options moving forward, at least at the big league level. Adding another southpaw who could slot in at High-A and take a run at the Minor League system next year is just the extra layer of the depth the organization could really use.

That pitcher being a southpaw would also be ideal considering the Jays’ starting depth is right-handed heavy, although most of the top MLB Draft hopefuls who are considered pitchers appear to be high schoolers. This move could also benefit the Jays if they can find the right college pitcher to sign under the slot of the $3,075,300 value for the #23 pick while a high-school pitcher may command more to persuade them from heading to play college ball.

Potential Draftees: Connor Prielipp (Alabama), Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State),

High School Pitcher

One of the more risky moves in a draft, the Blue Jays could be persuaded to use their top pick on a high school arm this season.

There is always the added risk that any high schooler will forego signing and instead head to college ball, especially with players now holding more power given Name, Image, and Likeness creates more financial opportunities within NCAA college programs, as well as the opportunity to improve their draft rankings for a higher signing bonus a few years down the road.

In this MLB Draft, there is an abundance of high-school position players who rank high on the top draft prospects list and there are only six high school pitchers currently featured within the top 30 as per MLB Pipeline. Other teams looking for young pitchers may use their picks on these six before the Jays reach the draft board, leaving less for the later first-round picks. This will obviously change throughout the day as no draft ever goes according to rankings but something to consider as the fun begins on July 17th.

Ross Atkins has also only ever used the first pick of the draft on one high school player since taking the General Manager role back in late 2015 and that was on infielder Jordan Groshans back in 2018. The rest has been a mix of position players or pitchers but from the collegiate level.

The reason a high school pitcher makes sense with this pick is that the Blue Jays have three starters currently on long-term contracts/team control in Jose Berrios, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman. While Hyun Jin Ryu’s injury leaves a hole in the rotation and the Yusei Kikuchi deal might not see the light of the entire three years, adding another young talented prospect pitcher amongst the crop of Irv Carter, Sem Robberse, CJ Van Eyk, and Adam Kloffenstein sets the Blue Jays up pretty well in three to four years time.

The biggest obstacle will be persuading any high school player to forego going to college ball, which is usually done by signing over slot unless the Jays take a player farther down on the rankings board. The risk will always be there but Ross Atkins and co. have had a solid track record in signing high draft picks, but this would be a first for the current front office.

The Best Player Available

An easy slam dunk decision for any General Manager, am I right? If a highly touted player is still available by the time the Jays step up to the podium, they should select that player regardless of position and walk back to their tables with their head held high.

This scenario most likely isn’t the easiest choice because draft days can get pretty wild in a hurry, but the Jays have had two consecutive drafts where a top player was still available when the club was put on the clock.

The first was Austin Martin in 2020, one of the best college bats in the draft that season, and was available for the Jays when they were on the clock at pick #5 and they wasted no time in both drafting and signing him. Last year was similar with pitcher Gunnar Hoglund, whose stock fell due to Tommy John surgery and was available for the Jays at pick #19. Oddly enough, both players are no longer with the organization as they were used as trade pieces, with Martin heading to Minnesota as part of the Berrios deal and Hoglund heading to Oakland in a package for Matt Chapman.

With a draft filled with quite a few high school players and sons of former Major Leaguers, it will be interesting to see if any of the top-ranking players will be available once the Blue Jays are set to select. One would usually think that their price may be too high or they are dead set on honouring their college commitments if they fall down the leaderboards, but some players also want to go to the franchise of their choosing, which was the case for Bo Bichette back in 2016.

Each MLB Draft is full of surprises and I am sure the 2022 version will be no different. There are some intriguing prospects on the board and it will be interesting to see what the Blue Jays’ front office game plan will be for the 20 rounds this summer.