Five Blue Jays Rebuild Trades, and the Prospects Returned

Five Blue Jays Rebuild Trades, and the Prospects Returned

Soon after Mark Shapiro arrived in Toronto late in August of 2015, plans for an ambitious rebuild began to take shape, even as the Jays charged towards their first post-season in over two decades.  Just over a year later, saddled with some bad veteran contracts, a minor-league system that had been significantly depleted for the championship push of 2015, and questions surrounding the future of the team’s aging stars relative to the projected timeline for the team’s next competitive window – Shapiro’s vision for a long-term organizational re-boot was put into action.  And the new narrative for the fan base at the time?  Patience would be required – this would be neither quick, nor painless.

A gradual, but unequivocal, dismantling commenced.  Certain key players from those 2015-16 teams were simply not re-signed when their deals with the Blue Jays eventually expired, including Jose Bautista (beyond his one-year extension), Edwin Encarnacion, David Price, Ben Revere and others.  Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin were traded once Toronto agreed to retain the majority of their respective salaries.  But many of the other key, higher contract value, veterans of those playoff teams were traded by the Jays in the years following 2016 in exchange for then-unknown, lower contract value, prospects, to build for the future.  To some degree at least, it can be argued that the future for the Jays is now.  Here then, are five Blue Jays rebuild trades for prospects in recent years, and how they have turned out to this point.

1.       Marcus Stroman (and cash) Trade to NY Mets for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson

At the time of the trade, July 28, 2019, Stroman was the Jays’ #1 starter, an All-Star, a former Gold Glove winner, had an ERA of 3.25 over 110.2 innings in the AL East, and had an additional year of control remaining on his contract (through 2020).  The minor-leaguers Kay and Richardson were not in the MLB Top 100 prospects at the time, although Kay was ranked fourth in the Mets’ system at that point, and Woods-Richardson sixth. After the trade, Stroman publicly questioned why the Jays did not offer him an extension.

Update

Stroman – During his time with the Mets in 2019 after his trade from Toronto, Stroman had an ERA of 3.77, a WHIP of 1.4 and a bWAR of 1.5 over 59.2 innings.  Stroman opted out of 2020 due to Covid, but in 2021 he had the 8th best ERA in the NL at 3.02 over 179 innings, a WHIP of 1.14 and a bWAR of 3.6.  Last month, the 30 year-old Stroman signed a 3-year, $71m contract with the Chicago Cubs.

Anthony Kay – Now 26 years old, over the course of three seasons since joining Toronto in 2019, Kay has pitched 68.2 innings in the majors, with a 5.50 ERA, a WHIP of 1.63 and a bWAR of zero.  In 2021 Kay also spent significant time in AAA, posting an ERA of 8.89 over 26 innings pitched.

Simeon Woods Richardson – Now 21 years old, he was traded by the Jays, along with Austin Martin, to the Twins in the Jose Berrios deal in late July of 2021.  He is currently ranked as the #4 prospect in the Twins organization (Martin is #2).

2.       J.A. Happ Trade to Yankees for Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney

At the time of the trade in July of ’18, Happ was fresh off his first All-Star appearance at 35 years old, had a record of 10-6 and a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts, and was in the final year of 3-year $36MM contract he signed with the Jays prior to the 2016 season.  From 2015-17 with the Jays, Happ accumulated a 3.43 ERA (122 ERA+) and 3.02 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  At the time of the trade, Happ was a 12-year major league veteran, with record of 102-82 and a 3.95 career ERA.  Drury, the 24th overall pick in 2013 MLB draft, had two strong years with Arizona early in his career, but struggled to find playing time in New York after dealing with health issues (blurred vision and migraines).  McKinney was hitting .230 in 2018 at the time of the trade, with 13 homers and 35 RBIs in 62 minor league games in the Yankees’ farm system.

Update:

J.A. Happ – Following the trade to NY, Happ threw 274 innings for the Yankees from 2018-20, posting an ERA of 4.13 and a WHIP of 1.19.  Following the 2018 season, the Yankees signed Happ to a two-year, $34MM contract.  He subsequently signed with the Twins and, now 39 years old, is with the Cardinals organization. His career fWAR is 21.8.

Brandon Drury – In his 2.5 seasons with Toronto, Drury did not recapture the production he had with the Diamondbacks. In 447 plate appearances in 2019 he hit .218/.262/.380, and in 2020, Drury slashed .152/.184/.174 over 49 PA. He was signed by the Mets to a minor league deal following the 2020 season. His career fWAR is -0.6.

Billy McKinney – Now 27, McKinney hit .230/.291/.439 in 122 games over three seasons with the Blue Jays. After getting only three at-bats with the Jays in the shortened 2020 season, McKinney was DFA’d and claimed off waivers by the Brewers. Now with the Dodgers organization, his career fWAR is 0.4.

4.       Josh Donaldson Trade to Cleveland for Julian Merryweather

At the time of the trade, August 31, 2018, Donaldson’s trade value had diminished due to his prolonged injury bouts through much of the 2018 season, and he was ultimately traded to Cleveland for a player to be named later.

Much was made of the circumstances surrounding his departure, with many questioning whether Shapiro and Atkins’s handling of the Donaldson situation was optimal from an organizational perspective.  All told, the “Bringer of Rain” played four seasons for Toronto, slashing .281/.383/.548, hitting 116 home runs, winning an MVP, and making the playoffs twice.  The PTBNL became Julian Merryweather, acquired by Toronto from Cleveland on October 4, 2018, completing the Donaldson trade.  26 years old at the time, Merryweather had missed all of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Prior to that, he had posted a 3.92 ERA over four seasons in the minors within the Cleveland organization, ranking 17th on Baseball America’s list of Cleveland prospects.

Update:

Donaldson- The 2015 AL MVP entered free agency at the end of the 2018 season, signing a one-year “prove-it” deal with Alex Anthopolous and the Atlanta Braves, in which he proceeded to hit 37 home runs and post a .900 OPS over 155 games.  Following that season, in January of 2020, he signed a 4-year, $92MM contract with the Twins, the second-largest in Major League history for a player 33 or older. The former MVP continues to post impressive numbers, with an OPS of .827 in 2021, easing into his mid-thirties.

Merryweather- Now 30 years old, Merryweather has thrown a total of 26 innings in the majors in his career.  He showed some flashes of a high ceiling coming out of the bullpen for the Jays early in the 2021 season, only to return to the IL for most of the year.

5.       Aaron Loup Trade to Phillies for Jacob Waguespack

At the time of the trade, July 31, 2018, the 30-year-old Loup was the longest-tenured Blue Jay, posting a a career 3.47 ERA in 369 games with Toronto from 2012 to 2018.  Loup had signed a one-year, $1.8MM contract with the Jays just prior to the 2018 season.  Waguespack was then 24 years old, with a projectable frame at 6 foot 6, having posted a 4.68 ERA in 21 games in the Phillies minor league system, though at the time he was not ranked among Philadelphia’s Top 30 Prospects per MLB Pipeline.

Update:

Aaron Loup – After stints with the Phillies and Padres, Loup signed with the Rays in 2020, posting an ERA of 2.52 over 24 appearances, and pitching in the ALDS and ALCS to help the Rays advance to the World Series. Loup then had a career year in 2021 at 33 years old, appearing in 65 games for the Mets.  His 0.95 ERA was the best by any pitcher with at least 50 innings in 2021. In November of 2021, Loup was signed to a two-year, $17MM deal by the Angels.

Jacob Waguespack– Now 28, Waguespack made 13 starts for the 2019 Jays, with a 4.38 ERA, an 18.8% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate over 78 innings.  In 2020, his ERA was 8.15 over 17.2 innings with the Jays, and he spent all of 2021 in AAA Buffalo.  In December of 2021, Waguespack signed with the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball.

Note:  To assess the merits of these trades properly, financial considerations pertaining to the club’s broader business strategy would be weighed (e.g., cap space, the value of multiple years of contractual control typically attached to a minor league prospect vs. the projected cost and contract term of an established major leaguer, the need to preserve flexibility for future commitments, the need for a new training facility in Dunedin, renovations to Rogers Center, etc.).  Many of these considerations are private and largely inaccessible, and while not included in this discussion, presumably are of at least some significance in the organization’s decision-making process around player transactions.