Toronto Blue Jays: The Rebuild from 2018 to Now

Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays can now confidently say their favourite team is competitive. Not since this offseason has there been such sky high expectations, at least in the last five or so years.

While the core of the 2015-2016 team is long gone, you can guarantee that this young group of players wants nothing short of a World Series. The transition from that veteran core of players to this one wasn’t seamless however. There existed a period of mediocrity and frustration between then and now.

Following the 2016 season, the Blue Jays were still making an effort to contend. The team signed Kendrys Morales to replace Edwin Encarnacion going into 2017, among other transactions. Nevertheless, regression and injuries led the Jays to a record of 76-86 and a fourth-place finish in the American League East. This was a signal that the Blue Jays were headed into rebuild mode. Veterans were traded in exchange for prospects and younger players were given shots to help the club in the following years.

The Blue Jays have made the transition to competitiveness going into 2022. The rebuild happened rather quickly, but how exactly did we get here?

As 2018 was getting underway, it was clear the Blue Jays were prepping for a big future. As most cases go, a big future means a fairly subpar couple of years before that. The Blue Jays were content with putting out a lacklustre starting nine, as their next wave of top prospects developed in the minor leagues. That season marked the start of the Blue Jays short but effective rebuild.

Today we are going to take a look back at the players we had both the pleasure and displeasure of seeing night after night as the Blue Jays made the transition to being the American League powerhouse they currently find themselves.

Rotation

2018: Marco Estrada, Sam Gaviglio, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman

How about this group? If this was two years prior the Jays would be sitting pretty, however, in 2018, this group was less than desirable. Injury-plagued seasons from Estrada, Sanchez, and Stroman led to an extremely disappointing year. The lowest ERA between the three of them was Sanchez’s mark of 4.89. The writing was on the wall for Estrada, as his back issues loomed larger than before. Aaron Sanchez’s blister and fingernail issues were prevalent and began derailing his career. Stroman just couldn’t find health or consistency, throwing only 102.1 innings in 2018.

The two most successful pitchers, Happ and Gaviglio, had two varying seasons. Happ was shipped to the Yankees at the trade deadline for a lacklustre package of Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. Gaviglio, meanwhile, pounded the strike zone and stayed healthy, somehow making him a standout in this miserable season.

The rotation was subpar and disappointing. This was a trend that would continue the following year.

2019: Stroman, Trent Thornton, Sanchez, Jacob Waguespack, Clay Buchholz

Stroman had a much-needed rebound year. His 2.96 ERA over 124.2 innings led to an All-Star appearance before his trade to the New York Mets at the deadline. On the other end of the spectrum, Sanchez and Clay Buchholz had a plethora of injury problems and threw a combined 171.2 innings. Sanchez was also shipped at the deadline to the Houston Astros alongside relief pitcher Joe Biagini.

The only real consistency came from Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack. Both managed to stay healthy and keep the Blue Jays in games. Despite this, neither would have real impacts in the following shortened season.

2020: Hyun Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker, Taijuan Walker

Newcomer Hyun Jin Ryu was the guy this year. In the prior offseason, they signed him to a 4 year, $80 million deal, and he was more than worth it in 2020. He pitched to a 3.01 FIP while accruing a 2.9 WAR, the 7th best in the MLB as per Baseball Reference. Taijuan Walker was another new addition, acquired at the trade deadline from the Seattle Mariners. Through 6 starts with the Blue Jays, he pitched to a 1.37 ERA. The pitchers under these two left a bit to be desired.

Matt Shoemaker was on the shelf for most of the season while Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson had a 6.80 and 7.22 ERA respectively. The lack of rotation depth proved to be the downfall for the Blue Jays in 2020. The competitive offence just could not keep up with the poor pitching. Improvements were needed.

2021: Ryu, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios

The Blue Jays entered 2021 with a solid rotation but didn’t anticipate a lot of the success which actually transpired. While Ryu was inconsistent, Robbie Ray won the AL  Cy Young award after signing a one-year deal in the prior offseason. Alek Manoah broke out as a rookie and exceeded all expectations. Jose Berrios was acquired at the deadline and pitched like an ace down the stretch. Matz was acquired in the trade before the season began and had a solid comeback year, acting as a stabilizing force at the backend of the rotation.

The rotation came together and turned into one of the best in baseball. A few of them will be returning next season, as we take a peek of what to expect.

2022: Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Ryu, Manoah, Ross Stripling

What a solid four arms to bring into 2022. Jose Berrios is a workhorse, Ryu has been an ace and will be looking to bounce back, and Manoah is a beast at only 24 years of age. They also bring in Kevin Gausman, coming off an All-Star season that saw him lead the league in games started (33) and post a 2.81 ERA. This makes for one of the best rotations in baseball. We are in for a good year of pitching from the Blue Jays, and the rotation has truly come a long way through both player development and acquisitions.

Bullpen

2018: Roberto Osuna, Joe Biagini, Tyler Clippard, Ryan Tepera, Seunghwan Oh

The bullpen is in a constant state of flux on all baseball teams, the rebuilding Blue Jays were no different. Two of these pitchers, Osuna and Oh, were traded at the deadline, while Biagini and Tepera would last another season. Both trades netted the Blue Jays some less than impactful prospects, while the Osuna deal was an ordeal in itself.

Osuna found himself in legal trouble mid-way into the season. They were able to trade him away, as it was obvious he displayed character issues that did not mesh with what the Blue Jays were trying to build. Despite the lacklustre prospects that were received, they also received star closer, Ken Giles.

2019: Ken Giles, Daniel Hudson, Gaviglio

Beyond Giles, this bullpen was uninspiring. Daniel Hudson was a serviceable reliever until he was shipped to the Washington Nationals at the deadline. He would go on to win the World Series and even closed out the final game. Everyone else was either average or anywhere below.

Giles, as mentioned, put together a phenomenal season. Over 53 innings. he posted 23 saves to go along with a 1.87 ERA and a 14.1 K/9. It’s truly one of the more underrated seasons from a Blue Jays reliever in team history, it’s just a shame he couldn’t stay healthy.

2020: Anthony Bass, Rafael Dolis, Jordan Romano

This was quite an interesting year. We saw journeyman Anthony Bass pickup seven saves, a stellar shortened season from Rafael Dolis, and a breakout season from Canadian Jordan Romano. These three would all go in different directions once the season was over

Bass would end up signing with the Miami Marlins the following offseason, Dolis’ performance would take a nose dive the following season, and Romano would go on to excel and take over as the teams closer.

2021: Romano, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather

As previously mentioned, Romano became the closer. He turned into a dominant, strikeout-heavy pitcher who has a clutch gene. Tim Mayza would return from Tommy John surgery and pitched lights out for all but a small stretch during the season. Merryweather would show flashes of greatness, but fail to be consistent and healthy.

This bullpen overall was no doubt the letdown of the 2021 Blue Jays, at least for the first half of the season. There were additions made and strong performances were had, but overall this bullpen cost the Blue Jays a lot of games.

2022: Romano, Mayza, Trevor Richards

This Blue Jays bullpen now has both depth and experience. With a strong top three, a healthy Merryweather, a rebound from Ryan Borucki, newcomer Yimi Garcia, and possibly Nate Pearson, we could be looking at a very strong and improved bullpen for 2022. This is a position that has undergone a lot of changes since 2018, and the Jays will need the bullpen to produce if they want success in 2022.

2018: Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Devon Travis, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz

This infield was the byproduct of the ageing infield core we saw in 2015-2016. This was the last year on Martin’s contract, and he spent most of it acting as a mentor to the rookie Danny Jansen. Devon Travis was truly a sad story. He was an uber-talented hitter and solid fielder but his knee issues just kept him from finding any consistency. His 79 OPS+ in 2018 would be his last season with the Blue Jays, a truly disappointing end for a talented player.

Solarte was puzzling. He was an electric factory when he was hitting well but his poor defensive play and otherwise lazy tendencies meant he wasn’t in the long-term plans. Aledmys Diaz had an admirable 105 OPS+ filling in for the constantly injured Troy Tulowitzki. He would be shipped out to the Houston Astros the following year for Trent Thornton. The missing cog in this infield was Josh Donaldson. Injuries limited him to 32 games in a Jays uniform in 2018 and he was eventually dealt to the Cleveland Indians later that year.

Danny Jansen, Smoak, Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddy Galvis/Bo Bichette

This was a fun infield in an otherwise not fun season. Smoak’s swan song in Toronto saw him post a 101 OPS+. His time as a starter in Toronto was an underrated run of success. From 2017 to 2019 he posted an OPS+ of 119 while also being a stellar defender.

Biggio and Vlad would make their debuts early into this year. Biggio was an on-base machine while Vlad showed flashes of what was to come in the batter’s box while being an abysmal fielder at third base. Freddy Galvis was nothing short of a beauty but nonetheless was usurped by Bo Bichette later that season. Bichette would break a record by hitting double in his first nine consecutive games.

2020: Jansen, Guerrero Jr., Biggio, Travis Shaw, Bichette

This was the young core’s first season as starters and it yielded mixed results. Vlad was disappointing. He came into the 60 game season clearly out of shape. While he managed to play in all 60 games, Vlad’s future as a generational star was in question. Biggio was a stud yet again, posting 122 OPS+ over 59 games at multiple positions. Bichette was one of the best shortstops in baseball when he was on the field. He hit .301 with a .512 slugging over 29 games. After signing a one-year deal the offseason prior, Travis Shaw had his moments. He was disappointing for the most part while playing third base.

2021: Jansen, Guerrero, Marcus Semien, Biggio/Santiago Espinal, Bichette

This may be the best infield to not make the postseason in the history of baseball. Vlad broke out and finished second in MVP voting. Bo stayed healthy while hitting to a 123 OPS+ and improving defensively as the season went on. Marcus Semien proved to be a historic pickup, as he finished third in MVP voting behind Vlad and Shohei Ohtani.

The only disappointing part of this infield was Biggio. He was fantastic in 2019 and 2020, but injuries limited him last year. Santiago Espinal did his best to pick up the slack, as he provided great defence at the hot corner and hit .311 over 92 games.

2022: Jansen, Guerrero Jr., Biggio, Bichette, Espinal

Watching Vlad, Bo, and Biggio as full-time big leaguers is beyond satisfying. The Blue Jays’ ability to identify and develop talent must be applauded, as it has set them up for continued success. This is going to be a fun infield to watch going forward. I also fully expect them to add to this infield prior to Opening Day. Vlad at first, Biggio and Espinal at second, Bo at short, and an all-star calibre third baseman is a recipe for postseason contention, and I’m here for it.