Five Reasons the Blue Jays Should be OUT on Bryant, Correa, and Story

1. The Looming Extensions of Vlad and Bo

MLB Trade Rumours recently projected the following contract costs, based on current market conditions and other factors:

• Carlos Correa (age 27): 10 years / $320m
• Kris Bryant (age 30): 6 years / $160m
• Trevor Story (age 29): 6 years / $125m

Team president Mark Shapiro said earlier this winter that he’s not anticipating a payroll that exceeds baseball’s competitive balance tax. With recent signings, Toronto’s 2022 payroll commitments currently sit in the $160m range, and the (pre-lockout) competitive balance tax threshold is set at $210 million. But in addition to existing payroll commitments, there are two other significant variables to consider: the potential contract extensions of Vladdy Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

The Blue Jays know that the more faith they show and risk they assume early, the more likely it is that they will be able to sign the two to longer-term deals.  The question is – what is the sample size that the Jays organization needs to be comfortable with that risk? Fernando Tatis Jr. had shown enough, in the eyes of Padres management, after only 143 Major League games, for the club to assume a $330m risk.

Pressure is on the ’22 Blue Jays to acquire one of the big-ticket free-agent infielders remaining on the market. Here are 5 reasons they should not do so.

Recent contract extension for players with less than one full season of MLB service time:

• Tatis Jr., Padres: at age 22, having played 143 MLB games, signed for 14 years / $330m
• Ronald Acuna, Braves: at age 21, having played 116 MLB games, signed for 8 yrs / $100 m
• Wander Franco, Rays: at age 19, having played 70 MLB games, signed for 12 years / $223 m

Also informative is the situation of Juan Soto of the Nationals who, at 22 years old, is currently projected to receive a 15-year, $503 million extension in the coming months.

At this point, the expectation is that each of Vlad and Bo’s potential extensions would surpass the Tatis range, and likely approach the Soto projected terms. What is less clear is when such steps will be taken by the Blue Jays, particularly given the uncertainties added by the current labour negotiations and the impact of the pandemic on club revenues.

Presumably, the prospect of buying out the arbitration years of Bo and Vlad has been factored into the Jays’ decision-making process for the potential addition of one of these large commitment-free agent pieces. The organization has invested heavily in terms of time, draft picks, and player development resources on several infielders who may actually provide comparable production, while holding potentially greater promise long term. Leveraging team-friendly contracts would of course afford Toronto far greater flexibility to extend not only Bo and Vlad but also to lock up Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Guerriel Jr.– both eligible for free agency in 2024.

2. Cavan Biggio’s Most Recent Full Season at Second Base

The addition of Story or Correa at shortstop would presumably see Bo move to second base, under different circumstances than those that saw Semien accept the move to second from shortstop on his one-year, transitional contract in 2021. But lost in this discussion, for the most part, has been 26-year old Cavan Biggio who, when healthy, still has a high ceiling, has played second base efficiently in the past, and provides a much-needed left-handed bat to balance out the Blue Jays lineup.

Due to several health issues, 2019 was for all intents and purposes Biggio’s most recent full season. Here are Biggio’s rankings among AL second basemen in 2019 (minimum 400 Plate Appearances):

• BB – 1st
• OBP – 2nd
• Plate Discipline (CSW%) – 1st
• xWOBA – 2nd
• Stolen bases – 4th
• OPS – 5th
• wRC+ – 5th

For perspective, Biggio’s .364 OBP in 2019 would have ranked second on the 2021 Blue Jays, behind only Vladdy, and ahead of Bichette, Semien, Springer and Hernandez. Biggio is under contract for $1.5 million in 2022 and is not scheduled to hit free agency until – you guessed it – 2026.

3. Santiago Espinal’s 2021 Numbers at Third Base

Although Santiago Espinal made only 246 plate appearances in 2021, not taking over as the full-time third baseman until later in the year, his batting average of .311 was first on a team loaded with offensive stars. Among AL third basemen in 2021, Espinal’s 2.2 WAR was higher than that of Alex Bregman, Kyle Seager, or Josh Donaldson. George Springer’s WAR for 2021, with 342 plate appearances, was 2.4.

Even more impressive were Espinal’s defensive contributions in 2021. Espinal’s fielding percentage of .980 placed him second among AL third basemen, trailing only Matt Chapman of the A’s (.983). Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF) is a statistic that Fangraphs uses to measure a player’s defensive value relative to league average.  For 2021, Espinal’s score of +7.3 ranked third among all AL third basemen and was well ahead of notables such as Kris Bryant (DEF of -6.3) and Rafael Devers (DEF of -3.6).

Espinal earned only $575,000 in 2021 and will not be eligible for free agency until 2027. Obviously, there is no guarantee he will match last year’s productivity going forward, yet the fact that Espinal’s 2021 numbers projected over a full season would have resulted in a WAR ranking in the top ten in the AL is intriguing, to say the least.

4. Jordan Groshans – Toronto’s 2018 First Round Draft Pick

Currently ranked by the Blue Jays as the number three prospect in the organization, 22-year old Jordan Groshans is projected to arrive in the majors in 2022.  With an overall scouting grade of 55 (including hit 55, arm 60), the Blue Jays’ 2018 first-round draft pick (12th overall) led all Toronto hitters at the 2020 alternate training site in home runs, and projects to generate increased power as he continues to mature physically. Despite having just 23 games of full-season experience prior to the year, Groshans spent the entire 2021 season at Double-A New Hampshire, batting .291/.367/.450 with 81 total hits, including seven homers and 23 doubles, while driving in 40 runs and scoring 46. His average ranked fifth and his .817 OPS ranked eighth among all Toronto minor leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances (per MiLB.com).

Not currently on the 40-man roster, Groshans may not break Opening Day with Toronto, but many have speculated that the Jays have to this point steered away from signing a big-ticket free-agent third baseman due to the imminent arrival of Groshans at the position.

5. Carlos Rodon

Rather than gambling on an older, expensive free-agent infielder, relying on cost-efficient productivity from a healthy Biggio at second, and some combination of Espinal and Groshans at third, would allow the Jays to be far more aggressive financially to more fully address their most pressing need coming out of 2021 – pitching depth.

The problem with the ’21 Jays was not offensive production. Semien’s departure does leave a hole, but much of that should be replaced by a fully healthy George Springer in 2022. If the Jays still have big money to spend this offseason, run prevention should be the focus.

Carlos Rodon is the top pitcher remaining on the free-agent market by both 2021 fWAR and projected 2022 fWAR (per Fangraphs). Overall in 2021, Rodon made 24 starts for the White Sox, highlighted by a no-hitter in April, going 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA in 132 innings and, despite missing a handful of starts, finishing fifth in Cy Young voting.

There is the obvious health uncertainty due to arm issues – Rodon pitched only 42 innings combined in 2019 and 2020. After a dominant first half of the 2021 season, Rodon experienced declining velocity that led to a stint on the IL in August. However, the big lefty finished the season strong – pitching 18 innings in September, making all four starts with a 2.00 ERA and a 22/5 K/BB ratio.

While Berrios, Gausman, and Manoah are locked in at the front end of the starting rotation, the Jays’ fourth and fifth starter positions are less clear, with Hyun-jin Ryu’s effectiveness dropping off significantly through the second half of 2021. Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch, Ryan Borucki and Julian Merryweather have each shown flashes of top-end potential while dealing with persistent health issues, and while each could be stretched out as a starter in 2022, it is more likely they will be returned to the bullpen.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Rodon will receive a one-year, $25 million contract. This type of short-term “prove-it” deal has worked out well for several Blue Jays recently (most notably Semien, Ray, and Stephen Matz). Rodon’s former teammate Jose Berrios should be able to address any questions Rodon may have about the Toronto organization, and a chance to work with Pete Walker should have appeal. The 29-year-old Rodon did not receive a qualifying offer from the White Sox, which means the Jays would not have to give up draft-pick compensation. Free-agent pitchers signing similar one-year deals this offseason include Noah Syndergaard (1 year / $21m with the Angels) and James Paxton (1 year / $10m with the Red Sox), both coming off Tommy John injuries.

The Jays bullpen was exposed badly in 2021, in the first half of the season in particular, before the additions of Trevor Richards and Adam Cimber helped Tim Mayza and Jordan Romano stabilize things down the stretch. The return of David Phelps on a minor league deal and the free-agent signing of Garcia also improve the outlook. But further strengthening the top end of the starting rotation with Rodon could take significant pressure off the bullpen and extend the development timeline for Toronto’s younger starters.