Blue Jays: Some of the best moves that Ross Atkins didn’t make

The Blue Jays were seemingly interested in every free agent and player available in the trade market over the offseason, but some of the best moves are the ones that weren’t made.

It’s obviously way too early to call some of those situations, but for Blue Jays fans feeling a little frustrated that the team hasn’t been able to get much from George Springer, the big offseason acquisition, let me tell you about how things could be a lot worse right now.

Sure, they spent 5.5 million on a one year deal for Kirby Yates that didn’t work out at all, but with injuries and underperformance being rampant across the game over the first month or so, the Jays are in decent shape in a lot of ways, which is hard to believe after how many injuries they’ve sustained to the roster. At 16-14 they’re just 2.0 games back of the Red Sox in a suddenly log jammed AL East.

A lot of that has to do with a few key decisions that Atkins didn’t make over the winter, at least based on the rumours that were swirling. Some were more realistic than others, but it was clear that the front office was swinging for the fences, and they proved it with a six-year, 150 million dollar deal for George Springer, as well as a big one-year, 18 million dollar pact with Marcus Semien. The latter has really started to come around and had a big series in Oakland in his return to the Colosseum, and Springer will be back eventually and provide an elite two-way asset.

I believe that at some point soon things will all come together for this team, even if I understand the frustration at various points over the first 30 games. That said, things could have gone a lot differently over the winter, and in some cases, it would have been far more frustrating than anything we’ve seen so far. Let’s have a look at four of those situations.

A homecoming that didn’t, and wouldn’t have worked out

I don’t feel good about writing the first one here, but the truth is, the Blue Jays would have regretted signing James Paxton this year even if it would have been great to finally bring the big southpaw home to Canadian soil.

Unfortunately injuries have really taken a toll on the 32-year-old throughout his career, especially in more recent years as he’s dealt with back issues. Unfortunately this time around it was a left forearm strain that eventually turned into the need for Tommy John surgery, meaning he likely won’t make a return to the mound until sometime in the middle of the 2022 campaign. It was very disappointing news for the Seattle Mariners and their fan base, as there was a lot of excitement about the return of the “Big Maple”, who started his career with the club and spent his first six seasons there.

It’s hard to know how serious the Blue Jays were about signing Paxton, but the link between the two parties was pretty consistent, even if that just came from the fan base and speculation from writers. He eventually signed a one-year, 8.5 million dollar deal with his old team, and something tells me the Blue Jays would have had to beat that figure. Even if it looked like a bargain at the time, unfortunately the Mariners won’t get any return for their investment, at least in 2021.

For the Blue Jays who spent a lot of money in other spots, that 8.5 million could have been the difference between being able to add a starter at the deadline, or being tapped out financially. There was a lot of talk about how Atkins might have to save some budget room for the deadline as long as the Blue Jays are in the hunt for a playoff spot, and in this case it was money well saved.

Can’t guarantee what you’re buying

In this case, I’ll start by saying that a month from now the story could be, and likely will be completely different. Having said that, can you imagine if the Blue Jays had paid a premium to acquire Luis Castillo, and then he started things off the same way as he has for Cincinnati this season?

The Blue Jays were quite obviously in the hunt for a starting pitcher that could slot behind Hyun Ryu as at least a #2, and ideally a second ace for the rotation. There aren’t a lot of those guys available in free agency or on the trade market, but there were rumours that the Reds were considering making Castillo available for the right price. The cost would have been sky-high, and probably would have required at least two of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, Austin Martin, and Jordan Groshans, and likely other pieces. With Castillo’s talent and contract control, it was going to have to be a haul.

Oddly enough the 28-year-old is off to a terrible start to his 2021 campaign, currently sitting with a 6.07 ERA and a 1.608 WHIP over his first six starts. His strikeouts over nine innings average has dropped to 7.3 from 11.4 last year, and he’s already given up 40 hits over just 29.2 innings, after only allowing 62 hits across 70.0 IP all of last season.

I will repeat, I don’t think this will continue for a starter that has been one of the game’s best over the last few years, but it would have been very alarming for the Blue Jays to pay a premium and then see him start like this. It’s always possible that his arm isn’t 100% healthy too, but unless that’s the case I would expect things to straighten out for the talented Dominican.

What would have made fans panic the most about this trade would have been the package the Blue Jays would have sent back to the Reds, and the early-stage seller’s remorse. Either way, for now it looks like it was wise to hold off on that type of blockbuster deal. Maybe it can be revisited at a later date, and maybe for a cheaper price.

I can’t even imagine the panic and frustration

Like I said when talking about Luis Castillo, this is another situation that I expect to resolve itself over time, and probably sooner than later. That said, the start of Francisco Lindor‘s tenure with the Mets has been nothing short of a disaster, and that’s after they signed him to a fresh 10-year, 341 million dollar deal before the season began.

And there was a time when it felt like he was destined to land with the Blue Jays

Because Atkins and Mark Shapiro had come from Cleveland before working in Toronto, they’re perpetually linked to anyone from that organization that might be available. In the case of Lindor, there was a lot of speculation that saw him ultimately landing with the Blue Jays, and it might have happened if the cards had been played a little differently.

More from Jays Journal

• Matt Chapman has been exactly what the Blue Jays needed
• Blue Jays: The goalposts are moving in the right direction
• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King

For what it’s worth, I still believe that Lindor is one of the best baseball players in the world, but his performance so far has been dreadful. He’s currently slashing .163/.297/.207 over his first 25 games and 92 at-bats. Just this week he snapped on 0-26 skid that nearly topped the worst stretch of his career, and somehow he’s collected just one home run and three RBI. Again, this isn’t going to last forever, but I can’t say I blame Mets fans if they’re a little worried at the moment.

What could have made matters even more frustrating would have been if the Jays sought a package that included Carlos Carrasco as well in order to upgrade the rotation. It would have made sense at the time, but unfortunately the right-hander hasn’t been able to make an appearance for the Mets in the regular season yet, and it sounds like he won’t make it back until late-May at the earliest.

As stressful as that could have been, it also would have been tough to see the type of return that Cleveland would have wanted for Lindor and/or Carrasco. Similar names like Gurriel Jr., Groshans, Woods Richardson, and Manoah would have been in the conversation, and the price would have been even steeper if the Jays wanted both. For the time being, it looks like a major bullet dodged, even if Lindor is bound to get back on track sooner or later.

As much as we all want to see the front office acting aggressively throughout the offseason, sometimes it’s the changes they don’t make that pay off the most. Considering all of the moves they were reportedly interested in looking at, things could have turned out a lot worse, at least at this early stage in the year.