Blue Jays rumours: Top 5 non-tender candidates to watch this week
December 2nd is the deadline for teams to tender a contract to arbitration eligible players, which means opportunity to could present itself for the Blue Jays.
The MLB hot stove could finally pick up some steam this week, at least in terms of a few more transactions, and likely a handful of trades.
That’s because December 2nd is the deadline for teams to choose whether to non-tender an arbitration eligible player, or offer them a contract for the 2021 season. In many cases that’s a no-brainer decision, but there are always a handful of players who become free agents at this time of year, and there could be more than usual this time around. With many clubs feeling a financial pinch after no ticket revenue was available in 2020, there could even be more surprise decisions like back when we saw Cleveland let go of Brad Hand.
Many of these situations, such as with Hand, have been resolved already, but there are a lot yet to be determined. Among the group are a few players that could interest the Blue Jays, and www.mlbtraderumors.com was kind enough to put together a list of potential non-tender candidates. They understandably included Travis Shaw from the Blue Jays, and it’s entirely possible we could see the veteran cut loose in the next day or two.
Not only could there be opportunity if players are non-tendered this week, but there could be a few trades on the table ahead of that deadline, especially in a case where there is still value with the player, but more so a need to cut payroll.
Either way, there are several noteworthy players from that list mentioned above, so let’s have a look at the options potentially available to the Blue Jays over the next few days.
5- Bullpen help available?
One of the abilities that I’ve appreciated the most from the current front office in Toronto has been their penchant for finding quality arms for the bullpen. Whether it was examples like Anthony Bass, Rafael Dolis, or A.J. Cole from this year, or others from the past like David Phelps, or Daniel Hudson, they seem to have a pretty good eye for that area of roster building, especially on a budget.
Looking at the list of relievers that could come available, I could see the Blue Jays rolling the dice on a few. For example, there are a pair of right-handers that the L.A. Angels might cut loose in Hansel Robles and Keynan Middleton. Both were downright dreadful in 2020, but it was a small sample size and the bullpen can be volatile at the best of times. It could also be a formula that leads to their being available on the cheap.
To reiterate, neither did anything worth writing home about in 2020, but there is a recent enough of success to be intrigued.
Robles
2019: 2.48 ERA, 1.018 WHIP, 72.2 IP, 23 saves
2020: 10.26 ERA, 17.40 WHIP, 16.2 IP, 1 save
Middleton
2018: 2.04 ERA. 1.302 WHIP, 17.2 IP
2019: 1.17 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 7.2 IP
2020: 5.25 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP
In Middleton’s case, he’s still working way back from the Tommy John surgery he had in 2019, and control was a big issue for him last year. That said, he was viewed as a closer type before his surgery, and the Angels had hoped he could find that form in 2020 once he was healthy again. Since that didn’t happen, he could be a non-tender candidate and an intriguing one.
As for Robles, he lost some velocity on his fastball this past season, but at the age of 29 there’s no reason to think he’s finished. With a proper offseason and spring training regimen, he’s a pitcher that could be worth a look, and may even help reinforce the back of the bullpen. We’ll see if the Angels decide to hang on to one or both, but it could be worth keeping an eye on.
4- Another closer type?
One name that I was surprised to see on MLBtraderumors’ list was Matt Barnes of the Boston Red Sox. That said, if they are actually going to let him walk then the Blue Jays should definitely have a look.
Like most of his Red Sox teammates this past season, Barnes didn’t have his best campaign in the big leagues. He served as the closer for most of the year, and finished up with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.391 WHIP over 23 innings pitched, saving nine games. He might not be a dynamic option as a closer, but as a late-inning option, such as the role he served in Boston from 2017-19, you could certainly do worse.
The reason that Barnes finds himself on the list as a potential non-tender candidate is he’s going to make an estimated 4.7 million in 2021 after arbitration. That’s not a tremendous sum by any means, but the Red Sox may not want to pay him that much after a pretty underwhelming 2020 performance.
I’m not sure that I want to see the Blue Jays pay him that much either, but if the Red Sox cut him loose and he becomes a free agent, it wouldn’t surprise me if the right-hander had to settle for less elsewhere.
Barnes wouldn’t represent the type of key bullpen acquisition I hope the Blue Jays make this winter, but he would certainly raise the floor of the group overall. With late-inning experience, he would also provide another safety net for guys like Dolis and Jordan Romano, who look like they’ll be the leading candidates to close in 2021, at least as things stand right now.
3- A corner outfielder worth considering
One name that confuses me to see on the list of potential non-tenders is Eddie Rosario of the Minnesota Twins. I wondered if perhaps his inclusion was a bit of an overstatement, but Fangraphs also has him on their list, and even rates him was ‘likely’ to be let go.
The reason he might come available would be that the Twins don’t want to pay him his expected salary in his last go-around in arbitration before hitting free agency in 2022. Spotrac.com has him down for an estimated salary of 11 million next year, and many folks believe the Twins would rather allocate their resources elsewhere.
Rosario wouldn’t be a perfect for the Blue Jays, as they don’t really have a need in their corner outfield spots, but it all depends on the acquisition cost, and what it could mean for other roster moves. If they could acquire a 2.7 bWAR player for nothing, which is what he averaged from 2017-19, then that’s worth considering. His left-handed stick in the lineup wouldn’t hurt either, helping balance the right-heavy group.
Rosario won’t be 30 until September of next year, and he slashed a solid .257/.326/.476 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI in 57 games in 2020, so it’s not as if he’s lost a step. This may just be a case of the effect of a 2020 season without fans in the stands. Typically a good player like Rosario would be retained without hesitation, and now could suddenly find himself in a new jersey next year.
If he does become available, or the Twins want to give him away for a low-level prospect, it’s worth having a long look at. Again, he’s not an ideal fit as a corner outfielder, but the Blue Jays haven’t been set on filling their needs in a traditional sense anyway, and they might just find a great way to make it work.
2- Probably not available, however…
Near the end of this list are a couple of players that I don’t really expect will be non-tendered. However, because they were on MLBtraderumors’ list, and/or could be acquired in a trade at a reasonable cost, I think it’s worth examining. With that in mind, let’s have a look at the situation with Tommy Pham.
The veteran outfielder is best-suited in a corner these days, as he’s spent the last couple of seasons in left field. At 32, and two years removed from his last regular time spent in centre field, it may not be an option anymore. However, his offensive production could be significant enough that playing in a corner is just fine.
Going back to his last full season in 2019, Pham slashed .273/.369/.450 with 21 home runs, 33 doubles, and 68 RBI in 145 games. He battled injuries in his first year with the Padres, and disappointed with a .211/.312/.312 line in 31 games last year, but oddly enough that’s the least of his problems.
One of the reasons it’s believed he could be non-tendered is he’s still recovering from a stab wound he suffered outside of a night club in October. Thankfully he didn’t sustain life-threatening injuries, but he did have to have surgery after the incident, and he’s now reportedly suing the establishment that he was visiting at the time.
Spotrac.com has him slated for about eight million, just a tiny raise from the 7.9 million he was scheduled to make prior to the pandemic shortening the season. My guess is the Padres will retain him, but if there’s a cheap opportunity for the Blue Jays, it’s another one worth keeping an eye on.
1- Not gonna happen, but what if it did?
If you scan the list I’ve been referencing all along, there’s one clear-cut name that stands out and that’s Kris Bryant. I think we’d all be shocked if the Cubs just non-tendered him, as surely they could get some sort of trade return for him, and that’s likely where the focus is more worthwhile.
It sounds like the Cubs are pretty serious about cutting payroll, and Bryant could be the one to go. He’s a year away from free agency after losing his appeal with the league a year ago, and he’s slated to make an estimated 18.6 million during his last trip through arbitration. There are two problems for the Cubs though. One would be the aforementioned payroll situation, but secondly, Bryant wasn’t himself last year as he battled injury, slashing just .206/.293/.351 across 34 games.
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However, this is a 28-year-old former MVP that could be worth betting on, especially if the acquisition cost was low. He’d be a great fit for the Blue Jays, as he could fill the hole at third base with a major upgrade as long as he’s healthy, and he also has the flexibility to play in the outfield corners. It’s a bit of a gamble because of his precarious health this season, and the fact that he’ll be a free agent in a year’s time, but it could also represent a unique opportunity.
You usually have to pay a premium for the chance to acquire an MVP-calibre player, and that might not be the case when it comes to Bryant this winter. I’m sure there have been other teams that have asked about him, and my guess is the Cubs have a reasonably high asking price, even if they know that their salary reduction desires are well known. However, as we get closer to the Dec 2nd deadline, the front office in Chicago may prefer to trade him now rather than tender an offer and be forced to do the same later.
If the Blue Jays are serious about pursuing stars like George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, or Francisco Lindor, they may not have the budget space for someone like Bryant as well, even with the hole at third base. They still have needs in the rotation and the bullpen, but I can’t help but think that Bryant would be a great fit in Toronto.
Who knows if the Blue Jays will act now and make a trade for one of these non-tender candidates, snap them up when they hit the free agent market, or maybe even wait to see the trickle down effect with other clubs. Whatever it is, hopefully we’ll see some movement this week, and ideally an improvement or two for the Blue Jays.