Blue Jays: Which “dead contract” has gotta go?

The Blue Jays have a few players who aren’t living up to their salary in 2018. Who is the worst culprit, and could any of them end up being designated for assignment?

One of the early stories of the 2018 season is how there are players on the Blue Jays roster that have performed better than expectations. Whether it’s been the sustained production of Kevin Pillar, the improved and dangerous Teoscar Hernandez, the surprising pop from Yangervis Solarte, or even the revelation that has been Luke Maile, there have been done pleasant surprises with this team.

Of course, not everyone has performed above the hopes of Blue Jays fans, and some are struggling beyond what we could have imagined. Fans and writers have been picking on Kendrys Morales pretty relentlessly, but the reality is he’s far from alone so far. There isn’t much of a “middle class” in the form of production with this team. and those that are struggling are really having a difficult time.

There are others who haven’t factored at all either, and when you start looking at an organization with so much young talent in the minor league rungs, the winds of change start to blow. We’ve already watched it happen with Hernandez’s promotion, and the appearances of other youngsters like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Anthony Alford, and even Dalton Pompey. Of course, there are several others and more on the way as well too, so this roster could look a lot different in the not so distant future.

With that in mind, some decisions could eventually have to be made by Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro when it comes to the 25, and 40 man rosters. Injuries will dictate a lot of what they do, but there’s a good chance they may eventually have to trade, or even cut someone in order to fit all the bodies they want to keep on the active roster. With a few players qualifying as a difficult fit these days, I’ve decided to look at which contract might make the most sense to eat, if it couldn’t be traded.

Kendrys Morales

Since I mentioned the designated hitter in the previous slide, and he’s been the most talked about name, I figured I would start with him.

The soon to be 35 year old has obviously struggled this season, currently with a slash line of .154/.250/.275, with just three home runs and 10 RBI in 91 at bats. For a bat-only player, it’s just not enough to keep him in the lineup with regularity, and we’ve started to see him losing playing time more recently. We’ve also watched him go from the type of bat that hit clean-up last season, to hitting as low as eighth in the order these days in John Gibbons‘ lineup.

While there are other bats that are having a difficult time, it’s especially tough in Morales’ case because he doesn’t bring anything else to the table. He has played a few games at first base this season, but saying he’s adequate at best over there might be a compliment. His value has to come from his bat, and right now that’s just not happening.

According to spotrac.com, Morales has a salary of 11 million USD this year, and one more season in 2019 at 12 million. Pro-rated we’re talking about just under 20 million left owed to the Cuban veteran, which is a decent chunk of change. In fact, it’s highly likely that the biggest reason Morales still has a job at this point is because of the amount remaining on the three year contract he signed before the 2017 season.

While it might not be easy to swallow that money, it’s very difficult to imagine that Atkins will have any luck finding a trade partner. The reality is he’s a bat-only player who isn’t hitting, and even if the Blue Jays are eating all of the money, it’ll be tough to find a taker. Hopefully Morales will start producing and this problem goes away, but we’re in the middle of May now and things aren’t looking good.

Troy Tulowitzki

One of the most decorated players on the Blue Jays roster hasn’t so much as sniffed the field this season, other than to pose for some photos as a pitcher during spring training. Since then, Troy Tulowitzki has had surgery on both heels to get rid of some nagging bone spurs, and just recently been clearly to resume baseball activities. There is no timeline for his return at all, but hopefully we’ll see him at least attempting some rehab games by June.

The 33 year old still arguably has the talent to make a difference on a big league roster, but his body simply hasn’t allowed it over the last few seasons. He’s had injury issues throughout his career, but it’s been particularly bad as he’s gotten older, and the Blue Jays have been without their starting shortstop for quite some time.

At this point I don’t think the Blue Jays are counting on anything from the five time All-Star, which is a shame if you think about it. Fingers crossed, he’ll be able to get healthy at some point in 2018 and play during the second half of the season. With improved depth including Aledmys Diaz, Lourdes Gurriel, Yangervis Solarte and more, it’s possible he can get regular rest and stay as fresh as he can too.

However, if say, he has a major setback during rehab of the latest affliction, it might be time to start asking if the roster would be better off without him taking up a spot. When he sits on the 60 day DL he doesn’t have to take up a roster spot, but the Blue Jays have been waiting for his return at shortstop, without much in the way of a pay off. They did upgrade the depth with his fragile body in mind, but it’s hard to say what his future will look like if he can’t stay healthy this time.

While I don’t have a lot of faith in him staying healthy for much of the remainder of his contract, I’m definitely cheering for the guy. Anyone who continues to rehab, year after year, in pursuit of excellence, and proving his doubters wrong, has my respect. In an ideal world Tulowitzki will be a big upgrade to the roster in the second half of 2018, and hopefully having nearly a year away from the diamond by then will be enough rest to keep him on the roster. If not, who knows how the Blue Jays will proceed.

They owe him 20 million for this season, 20 million in 2019, 14 million in 2020, and have a buyout for four million on the 2021 option, meaning the balance is in the neighbourhood of 53 million.

Randal Grichuk

Grichuk’s case is a lot different than Morales or Tulowitzki, mostly because of the cost of his contract and his relatively young age. He currently sits on the disabled list, but was hitting just .106/.208/.227 with just two home runs and seven RBI in 66 at bats before his injury. It’ll be a few weeks before he’ll be healthy enough to return, and then the Blue Jays will have to find a way to fit him back on to the roster.

Or maybe they won’t?

Grichuk came over from the Cardinals this offseason in exchange for Dominic Leone and Conner Greene, and I honestly believed that he could be a steal. I still think he’ll be a lot better than anything we’ve seen from him in a Blue Jays uniform so far, but there’s no denying he’s been a disappointment.

The problem for the former Cardinal is the depth chart in Toronto, one that he’s fallen down quite a bit since the season started. With Kevin Pillar having a career year so far, Curtis Granderson thriving in a platoon in left field with Steve Pearce, and Teoscar Hernandez mashing his way into the lineup, it’s hard to see where Grichuk’s playing time comes from. Injuries could change a lot of course, but if the rest of the group is healthy when Grichuk is ready to return, a decision could have to be made, and it could involve the former Cardinal.

Making just 2.8 million this season according to Spotrac.com, it should be a lot easier to find a trade partner for Grichuk than it would be for Morales or Tulowitzki. The former first round pick is just 26 years old as well, so convincing another team that they should take a chance on him seems like a reasonable task for the front office.

Because of that, I don’t think he would survive being sent to Triple-A, as he would have to pass through waivers. The claiming team wouldn’t have to guarantee his contract beyond this season, and with just over two million remaining on the deal, he’s a gamble that would be worthwhile for an outfield-needy team somewhere in the MLB.

We’ll see how this one plays out, but I would expect the front office to explore a move involving Morales before giving up on Grichuk this early. However, money definitely factors into the decision as well, and Grichuk’s cost wouldn’t hurt that bad financially. It wouldn’t so much be “eating” Grichuk’s contract, as it would be risking that someone else would swoop in and steal him for nothing, which at two million could be just as bad.

Aaron Loup

I had to include this one, even if it’s a lot less likely than the other three I’ve mentioned so far. The longest tenured Blue Jay has a 4.02 ERA so far this season in 15 appearances, and has mostly been the lone left-hander in the bullpen, except for when Tim Mayza has had a couple quick cups of coffee.

In Loup’s case, it feels like he’s lost the confidence of John Gibbons this season. I’ve always felt that his leash has been exceptionally long in Toronto anyway, and it feels like Gibbons is finally seeing things the same way I do. That said, his recent appearances have been better, as he’s thrown 5.0 scoreless innings in his last four outings, but they’ve come in games that have been largely over by the time he was used.

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I realize the Blue Jays don’t exactly have a left-hander who is ready to take over the role with complete confidence, but their righties have been pretty good this year, and there are a lot of them. The combination of Ryan Tepera, Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Seung-hwan Oh, Danny Barnes, and Roberto Osuna (on leave), have been among the best bullpens in baseball, and they’ve been used a lot in the first quarter of the season. Because of that over-use, I would expect that the Blue Jays will eventually start using a long man in the bullpen, a position that Loup has been taking on more lately.

If the front offices adds another lefty to the group, something they could really use to become a true contender, it’s hard to imagine Loup lasting much longer in Toronto. He’s earning 1,812,500 this season according to Spotrac, and has one more year of arbitration eligibility before becoming an unrestricted free agent.

It’s also possible the front office could find a trade partner, especially with the numbers he’s had at different points earlier in his career, and his being a lefty, but I don’t think they can expect much of a return. This would be more about making room for someone else, and with the performance of the rest of the bullpen, even with Osuna’s absence, might not allow for him to make it through the 2018 season.

Do you think I missed anyone else who could qualify for this list? Keep in mind I’m talking about a “dead contract” here, which is about the players that I don’t see as having much, if any trade value.

Next: Why does Russell Martin get off the hook?