Blue Jays: 12 predictions for the upcoming year

As the calendar flips to 2018, I’ve come up with some predictions for what will happen next year, both during the year and for next offseason.

Baseball is incredibly hard to predict. We can study the numbers and build expectations for the big leagues, but the truth is we never really know how things are going to shake out over the course of 162 games. For example, if you predicted the Twins would make the playoffs, or a Yankee rookie would hit 52 home runs, then I’d like to talk to you about some investment advice.

The Blue Jays had several examples of this point in 2017 as well, as we watched a team that was expected to contend for a playoff spot spend the entire year in last place in their division, save for the final day of the season. We also watched Justin Smoak unexpectedly transform into an All-Star before our eyes, when just a few months before the majority of us were hoping the front office would just cut him altogether.

With that in mind, I hope you’ll understand that the predictions I’m about to make below are very likely to end up as laughably wrong in a year’s time. I am making what I’d consider “educated predictions”, but with so many variables at play things could change in a real hurry. The success or failure of not only the Blue Jays, but the other teams in the American League and within the East division will have an impact on how things play out.

So without further adieu, here are my 12 predictions for the 2018 calendar year for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Josh Donaldson signs a new 5 year contract

Let’s get this one out of the way right off the hop. I know that most people believe that he’ll ultimately end up getting traded, but I have a funny feeling that Josh Donaldson ends up in Toronto long term. I could make a long winded argument for why I think it’s the smart play, but I already did that last week.

I don’t believe we’ll see an extension, but rather Donaldson will test the free agent market and ultimately return to Toronto on a five year deal. It’s widely believed that he’ll get an AAV of 25-30 million, so I’m going to predict 5 years, 137.5 million. It’s a lot of money to shell out, but compared to what Bryce Harper and Manny Machado could receive on the open market, he could ultimately end up as a “bargain” (insert respectful eye roll).

Aaron Sanchez rebounds, sticks as a starter

The “Sanchize” was supposed to contend for the AL Cy Young award in 2017, but instead spent all but eight starts sitting on the disabled list. He couldn’t get over the fingernail/blister/tendon issues that plagued him throughout the entire season, and ultimately was shut down in hopes that extended rest and a fresh slate would do him a lot of good.

I’m not predicting 200 innings for Aaron Sanchez by any means, but I have faith that he’ll make 25 starts and throw 150+ innings. I would also expect the club to put the kid gloves back on in terms of how they treat him this season, especially in the first half, but that should be perceived as a good thing until he’s proven he’s passed the issue.

Just miss the playoffs

Part of my reasoning for thinking that Donaldson ultimately stays in Toronto is I believe the team will be a contender in 2018, and that they’ll ultimately hang on to Donaldson for the entire season in pursuit of a playoff spot.

While I do think the season will be much better than last year, I’m going to predict that the Blue Jays miss qualifying for the postseason by 1.5 games, keeping things exciting until the final week. I sincerely hope I’m wrong on this one.

Alford ends up as a full time starter

We still don’t really know who will be starting in the outfield to begin the 2018 season, but I’d put money on Anthony Alford being one of the three by season’s end. Whether that means he pushes Kevin Pillar from the starting spot in centre, or takes over in one of the corner outfield spots, I believe he’ll be one of the key pieces to the team in the near future.

He dealt with injury issues for a good chunk of 2017, but he impressed when he was healthy, and he absolutely tore apart the Mexican Winter League. The former two-sport star is immensely talented, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flourishing at the highest level sooner than later.

Aledmys Diaz proves to be a savvy pick up

The only significant move the Blue Jays have made so far this offseason was sending minor league outfielder J.B. Woodman to the Cardinals for shortstop, Aledmys Diaz. The talented shortstop had an excellent rookie season in 2016, but struggled and was relegated to the minors at times last year, so the Cardinals felt he was expendable.

Brought in to back up Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki‘s inevitable DL stints, I predict Diaz will ultimately do just that and serve as an above replacement level infielder. By the time 2019 rolls around, he’s considered a full time starter.

Blue Jays hire a new manager after the 2018 season

As I said earlier in the article, I do believe that the Blue Jays will be in the playoff race in 2018, and John Gibbons‘ leadership will play a big part in any success they have. However, I’m guessing this will be his final year in the dugout as the Blue Jays’ skipper.

By all accounts, Gibbons has a strong relationship with Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, but I still think they’ll go in a different direction after this season, especially as the roster continues to shift away from the Alex Anthopoulos fingerprint. The Blue Jays will continue to look to get younger, and with that change will search for a new voice to guide the next generation.

For what it’s worth, I’m a fan of the laid back Texan, and wouldn’t mind at all if he stayed for many more years. I just don’t think it’s gonna happen.

Estrada moves on, Happ is extended

The Blue Jays brought Marco Estrada back on a one year deal for 2018 and will hope that he can be more like the 2015-16 version. I think he’ll have a much better season than he did last year, but I don’t know that it will translate into another extension for the change-up artist.

They’ll have to allocate money on other areas (like Donaldson!), so I don’t think they’ll be able to afford to bring back both Estrada and J.A. Happ, who will also be a free agent at season’s end. I do think they’ll try to retain Happ though, as he’s been quietly fantastic in his second go around in a Blue Jays uniform.

Biagini becomes a reliever for good

While I think it’s worthwhile to give Joe Biagini another look in the rotation next year, I don’t believe he’ll ultimately stick as a starter. Hopefully the Blue Jays can acquire enough depth that he can begin the season in Triple A as a starter, and continue to build on the skillset required for the job.

He’s already proven he can be an effective reliever, and I expect that he’ll end up back in the role that he flourished in during the 2016 season. Joining a stable including Roberto Osuna, Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, Dominic Leone, and Carlos Ramirez, the Blue Jays have one of the more coveted bullpens in the game because of the talent, as well as the cost and contract control.

J.P. Arencibia takes over for Gregg Zaun

This was the popular idea on Twitter after the news broke that Gregg Zaun was dismissed by Rogers Media, and it makes too much sense not to happen if you ask me.

J.P. Arencibia was a beloved player with the Blue Jays during his time in Toronto, and has maintained a great relationship with the fan base despite retiring a couple of years ago. He’s shown that he’s got the chops as an analyst in the past, and at just 31 years old, I’m sure he’s not considering himself “retired”.

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This is the prediction that I’m the least confident in, but as a big fan of both the player and the man, I’d love to listen to Arencibia’s take on the game on my television set.

Tim Mayza becomes the go to Loogy

The Blue Jays lacked a truly effective left-hander out of the bullpen last year, even if Aaron Loup‘s numbers look decent on paper. I expect that to change in 2018 with the emergence of 25 year old, Tim Mayza.

We got a small sample size from the Pennsylvania native last season, and he flashed the promise that makes me believe he’ll be an effective bullpen arm. I’m not sure if he’ll make the roster out of spring training, but I do think he’ll solidify his place in the bullpen by the time the season is over.

Vlad Jr and Bo make a September debut

I’m not predicting that either Vladimir Guerrero Jr or Bo Bichette make a significant impact on the big league roster in 2018, but I do think they’ll earn a cup of coffee in September.

A lot will depend on if the Blue Jays are in the playoff race or not, but either way we could see the talented duo get a taste of the show. If the Blue Jays are out of contention, they could get a chance to show their stuff against big leaguers in the final weeks of the season. If the Jays are in the race, they could get called up to experience that atmosphere and gain valuable experience for the future.

Either way I expect we’ll see the two of them put on a big league uniform at some point in 2018, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were both lineup regulars by 2019. The future is exciting.

Next: Blue Jays have a busy couple of months ahead

So there you have it, my 12 predictions for 2018. Feel free to make your own in the comments section, or tell me how ridiculously wrong I am with my thoughts here. A year from now we can all have a good laugh at my expense.