Toronto Blue Jays Series Preview and Pitching Matchups: Rays @ Jays

Game 2: August 9 – 7:07 ET

Drew Smyly (3-11, 5.14  ERA, 4.30 FIP) vs.
Marco Estrada (7-4, 2.92 ERA, 3.82 FIP)

The popular expectation coming into 2016 regarding Estrada was that he would undeniably regress towards his career numbers. This wasn’t an outlandish expectation by any means, and it wasn’t difficult to envision a scenario where his ERA moved closer to his FIP that was nearly a run and a half higher.

But Estrada has continued to adjust and adapt in order to make himself a very successful major league pitcher. His fastball – changeup combination continues to be his bread and butter, but his slider/cutter has developed into a quality swing and miss pitch. This has aided his ability to get more strikeouts and be a weapon that gets in on the hands of left handed hitters.

He’s been able to improve in a number of different areas and actually improve on his excellent 2015 campaign. Every time he goes to the mound he delivers a very good chance for the Jays to win, as he’s only allowed more than three runs in a start twice, and both times only four runs were allowed.

Smyly, on the other hand, has had a really tough go this year. He’s really struggled to keep the ball in the park, as he has allowed 1.66 HR/9. His BB and K rates are really good, actually that of a top tier starting pitcher, but his inability to avoid hard contact and keep the ball in the yard is keeping him from being successful.

Smyly gets swing and misses over 10 percent of the time with all four of his pitches. Four-seam fastball, cutter, curve and changeup. All four of his pitches are effective when located effectively, but his four-seam fastball is a flat pitch that if left in the zone it gets hit hard. That can be said for a lot of pitchers, but when a fastball has more movement, vertically or horizontally, it has a better chance of missing barrel, and since Smyly’s fastball is flat that opens up his margin for error.

The Jays hitters need to take advantage of fastballs that are left in the big part of the zone, but Smyly is rolling as of late, perhaps showing an improved command of his fastball. When his location is good, he has the ability to be a quality starting pitcher, so the Jays will have to take advantage of mistakes to be successful.

Next: Rookie Blake Snell brings big stuff in game 3