Blue Jays and Rockies meet in Tulowitzki’s homecoming: Full series preview

Game 1:  Monday, June 27th  –  8:40 p.m. ET

Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.70 ERA) vs.
Jon Gray (4-3, 4.80 ERA)

Here’s an interesting matchup off the top: two starters that are coming off abbreviated outings due to minor physical issues their last time out.

Jon Gray had his last start limited to just four innings due to arm fatigue, though he likely would have been yanked even if he were at full strength. The right-hander allowed four runs on three hits and four walks, but had been coming off a stretch of five stronger starts in late May and early June.

The 2013 third overall pick has often found trouble at Coors Field, however, sporting at ERA north of 5.00 and an inflated season-long HR/FB% of 17.6. His power arm has been as advertised, however, averaging over 95.0 MPH on his fastball and striking out 9.74 batters per nine innings.

Along with that fastball, which Gray turns to 57% of the time, he’ll also throw his slider 30% of the time and dabble with a curveball or changeup. His slider has been especially problematic for hitters this year with excellent movement.

Estrada, on the other hand, left his most recent start after six innings with back soreness. This was something that hampered Estrada in spring training and almost ate into his season, so the Blue Jays will be monitoring this closely. The team is reportedly considering a program to limit his workload in the second half of the season so that Estrada still has some gas left for the playoff stretch.

With 1.7 WAR through his first 14 starts, Estrada has already come close to his mark of 1.8 last season as he’s limited opponents to an incredible 0.98 WHIP. This has been aided by a .183 opponent’s BABIP, but it’s not all luck for Estrada, he’s been forcing weak contact (especially pop-ups) at an excellent rate.

The changeup artist has also been racking up the strikeouts at a much higher clip than last year with 8.10 K/9.

Coors Field doesn’t fit well with Estrada’s past reputation of being a fly ball (see: home run) pitcher, but he’s grown increasingly strong at avoiding that since joining the Blue Jays. Even when the long ball does strike, it’s rare that Estrada has runners on base.

Next: Game 2: Happ takes on an ideal matchup for Jays