Game Three: June 8 – 1:10 am ET
R.A. Dickey (3-6, 4.21 ERA, 4.54 FIP) vs.
Jordan Zimmermann (8-2, 2.58 ERA, 3.59 FIP)
Dickey’s stats are beginning to look more like what you should be expecting from him. An ERA in the late 3’s to mid 4’s is roughly the area he’ll end up in. Recently, he’s been able to lower his ERA due to his ability to limit base hits, as he’s given up five hits or less in four of his last five starts.
He’s not going to dominate anyone anymore, but if he can give you quality starts against a deep Tigers lineup, you’ll take that 100% of the time.
Much like I said with Happ on the Jays, Zimmermann’s FIP and peripherals suggest he’s due to regress, but he’s been able to avoid that thus far. He blew up three starts ago against the Twins of all teams, but he’s bounced back to throw a couple quality starts in a row against the White Sox and Rays.
Zimmermann’s days of striking out a bunch of guys are over, as his K/9 has been consistently trending downwards since 2014, as it sits at a career low of 5.83. However, his command is excellent, as evidenced by a 1.76 BB/9, and he’s done an excellent job of limiting hard contact (25.7%) and getting the ball on the ground above his career rate (45.3%).
This matchup is one I like for the Tigers. Dickey is no guarantee to provide any value, and Zimmermann is the type of pitcher that the Jays bats tend to struggle against.
They want to work themselves into hitters counts by being patient and laying off close pitches. Zimmermann’s excellent command negates that, and the Jays patience isn’t as valuable against a guy who consistently stays ahead in counts and hits his spots.