Blue Jays look to continue hot streak against Tigers

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The Blue Jays are now 31-27, 2.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles in the American League East

The Jays have look to finally turned the corner in their 2016 season. Over the last four series – two against the Yankees and two against the Red Sox – the Jays went 9-3. That’s a huge stretch of solid play against two AL East rivals, one of which was amongst the league’s best going into the last two weeks.

Over the previous 14 days entering play on Sunday afternoon, the Jays offence has posted a wRC+ of 102, which isn’t a number that will blow you away, but it’s better than the season long mark of 96 that they own. While that’s a modest improvement, and it’s a step in the right direction for an offence that’s been unable to put together a steady stretch of improved performance, they still look on paper as a team that should be performing better.

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It’s been the continued success of their pitching that has allowed them to put together this run they’ve been on. Over those same 14 days before Marco Estrada‘s brilliant start, their pitching staff had posted a 3.25 ERA across 108 IP. Their 3.96 FIP and 4.32 xFIP aren’t as impressive, but as a whole, the staff continues to prove they have the skillset necessary to outpitch their peripherals.

Estrada delivered two more great starts, the same goes for J.A. Happ, and Aaron Sanchez continued his dominance. R.A. Dickey continues to improve his numbers, and the bullpen has put together a stretch of consistently strong performances. Surprisingly, it’s been Marcus Stroman who has been dragging the pitching staff down recently. He gave up six and seven earned runs in each of his last two starts, both against the Red Sox.

I won’t dive into the recent struggles of Marcus Stroman here, and I don’t think those struggles are here to stay over the long term, but he was unquestionably the weakest link during the team’s recent success.

On the offensive side of the ball, Edwin Encarnacion and Russell Martin led the way. Edwin seemed to finally break out and looks like the Edwin we’re accustomed to seeing. Martin on the other hand, clearly wasn’t right early on this year, but he broke out of it with a two homer game on May 25.

Josh Donaldson continued his success, including a massive two-homer game on May 27 against Boston. And last but not least, Darwin Barney. The guy continues to hit at a pace that is completely unprecedented according to his career numbers, and we should enjoy it while it lasts.

Now for a quick look across the diamond before we examine the individual pitching matchups:

Next: 1st Stop: Tell me about those Tigers...

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Across the Diamond: Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have been a very streaky team so far this year. At the beginning of May, against the Indians, Rangers, Nationals, and Orioles, they lost 11 of 13 games, including seven in a row. Following that, they won nine of eleven games. More recently, they lost four in a row against the Athletics and Angels, only to turn around and sweep the White Sox.

This team clearly has the talent and ability to win ball games, but they’ve been unable to consistently put series wins together over a large stretch of time.

Offensively, they have the players to do a lot of damage. Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Cameron Maybin, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, and Nick Castellanos all have had productive years and have wRC+ marks above 120, as they’ve led the team to a mark of 105.

It’s their pitching that has let them down. Their team ERA of 4.51 is nearly a full run higher than the 3.58 Jays total. That 4.51 ERA is the seventh worst in the entire league. Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, and Michael Fulmer have been the only sources of value in the rotation.

Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey have been downright pitiful, putting up ERA’s of 6.67 and 4.76 and FIP’s of 6.28 and 5.47 respectively. They’ve dragged down the rotation, and the Tigers have been forced to go with Matt Boyd from AAA in order to have a decent shot at a quality start.

Fulmer has been a boon for their rotation in seven starts since getting the call up. In those seven starts, he’s thrown 41.2 IP, posting a good 3.24 ERA, followed up with a strong 3.58 FIP and good peripherals.

Without him, this rotation would be even more of a mess than it already is. Zimmermann has been good, but his peripherals suggest he’s due to regress.

The Tigers have been pretty bad defensively, ranking in the bottom five in Fangraphs’ defensive value statistic. As a whole, they have the ability to win games in bunches due to their strong offensive capabilities, but flaws in their pitching staff and defensive structure create a team that has struggled to stay above or at .500 for the duration of the year.

Now, on to the game-by-game pitching matchups…

Next: Game 1: Happ takes on Detroit's strong rookie

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Game One: June 6 – 7:10 pm ET

J.A. Happ (6-2, 3.06 ERA, 4.20 FIP) vs.
Michael Fulmer (5-1, 3.24 ERA, 3.58 FIP)

Happ’s FIP and peripherals continue to suggest that he’s due for regression, but he’s been able to limit that inevitable regression up to this point.

His strikeout rate continues to stay well below what he did with Pittsburgh last year, but he’s getting the ball on the ground at a fairly high rate and dong a good job of limiting hard contact in the air. This has been the most important part of his success.

The aforementioned success of Fulmer has been a savior for the Tigers. He throws absolute steam, with his fourseam averaging 96.38 mph, and his slider clocking in at 89.06. His four-pitch mix, including a change and sinker to go with his fourseam and slider, is a diverse repertoire due to his ability to mix them all in on a consistent basis.

He throws all four at least 12% of the time, with no pitch getting above 33% usage. The fourseam, change and slider are all adept at getting whiffs, as all three are getting double digit whiff rates.

He was acquired in the Yoenis Cespedes deal last year, and it looks like the Tigers got a pitcher that will be able to stay in the rotation a long time.

The one pitch Fulmer is having the most trouble with is the sinker. Hitters are hitting .438 and slugging .667 against it, and it’s really been the only pitch getting hit much. That suggest he’s finding way too much of the zone with the pitch and he’s leaving it up.

The Jays will have to work counts against the young righty and look for sinkers that catch way too much of the zone to do their damage.

Next: Game 2: Sanchez faces off against an old friend

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Game Two: June 7 – 7:10 pm ET

Aaron Sanchez (5-1, 2.99 ERA, 3.15 FIP) vs.
Matt Boyd (0-1, 3.94 ERA, 4.00 FIP)

The former Blue Jays prospect, Matt Boyd, who was sent to Detroit in last year’s trade for David Price, has yet to make a name for himself at the major league level.

He was recalled by the Tigers in late May, and since then he’s made two starts, combining for 11.1 IP, 12 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. He was pitching well in AAA through 8 starts, with a 2.06 ERA and 3.19 FIP, but he’s been unable to translate that success to the MLB.

Jays fans briefly saw what he could do in a Jays uniform, as he offers average velocity paired with a curve, slider and a change. He won’t blow anyone away, and his stuff doesn’t offer big strikeout potential, but he’s crafty and he can keep guys off balance with strong command and mixing speeds.

At the end of the day, this is a great matchup for the Jays, as he’s struggled to control the home run ball and against a lineup of righties that have been picking up their play lately, I don’t see this as a good matchup for the young lefty.

Right-hander Aaron Sanchez is coming off a very strong start against the New York Yankees in which he pitched six and two-thirds innings of shutout ball, striking out six. This brings Sanchez’s ERA down to 2.99 and he’s only fallen short of a full six innings once in his 11 appearances this season.

Next: Game 3: Dickey looks to stay strong in series finale

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Game Three: June 8 – 1:10 am ET

R.A. Dickey (3-6, 4.21 ERA, 4.54 FIP) vs.
Jordan Zimmermann (8-2, 2.58 ERA, 3.59 FIP)

Dickey’s stats are beginning to look more like what you should be expecting from him. An ERA in the late 3’s to mid 4’s is roughly the area he’ll end up in. Recently, he’s been able to lower his ERA due to his ability to limit base hits, as he’s given up five hits or less in four of his last five starts.

He’s not going to dominate anyone anymore, but if he can give you quality starts against a deep Tigers lineup, you’ll take that 100% of the time.

Much like I said with Happ on the Jays, Zimmermann’s FIP and peripherals suggest he’s due to regress, but he’s been able to avoid that thus far. He blew up three starts ago against the Twins of all teams, but he’s bounced back to throw a couple quality starts in a row against the White Sox and Rays.

Zimmermann’s days of striking out a bunch of guys are over, as his K/9 has been consistently trending downwards since 2014, as it sits at a career low of 5.83. However, his command is excellent, as evidenced by a 1.76 BB/9, and he’s done an excellent job of limiting hard contact (25.7%) and getting the ball on the ground above his career rate (45.3%).

Next: AL East Recap: Where do the Blue Jays fit in?

This matchup is one I like for the Tigers. Dickey is no guarantee to provide any value, and Zimmermann is the type of pitcher that the Jays bats tend to struggle against.

They want to work themselves into hitters counts by being patient and laying off close pitches. Zimmermann’s excellent command negates that, and the Jays patience isn’t as valuable against a guy who consistently stays ahead in counts and hits his spots.

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