Toronto Blue Jays’ Steamer vs. Reality: Pitchers

Sep 13, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) delivers a pitch against Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

As 2014 comes to a close at Jays Journal, we have been taking one final look back at the season that was for the Toronto Blue Jays.  In many discussions looking forward to the coming year, we have used Steamer projections to help forecast the potential impact that players on the Blue Jays’ roster may have.  These projections are far from the gospel, believe me, but in an effort to put their accuracy to the test, we have compiled a two-part series entitled “Steamer vs. Reality”, which puts the Toronto Blue Jays’ 2014 Steamer projections up against their real production.  Part One of the series, along with the 2015 Steamer forecasts, can be found here:

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• Steamer vs. Reality Part One: Position Players
• 2015 Steamer Projections: Pitchers
• 2015 Steamer Projections: Starting Lineup
• 2015 Steamer Projections: Second Base

These past Steamer projections come courtesy of Razzball.  Some of these projections did prove to be fairly accurate, and just as it was with the positional players, the accuracy tended to improve with veteran players who have an established record of performance.  In other situations (see: Santos, Sergio), the projections weren’t on the same planet, but at the very least, these offer an educated opinion of a players “expectations” for last season, whether they met them, and gives you a final opportunity to debrief on the year that was for Toronto Blue Jays’ pitchers.

R.A. Dickey

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Dickey loses some support from fans because his default tag of “Ace” produces expectations he isn’t able to reach, but there’s no denying he had himself a nice season.  As is tradition, Dickey came on stronger in the second half and put up a great innings total, something the rotation will need desperately with uncertainties in the bullpen for 2015.

Mark Buehrle

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How dare Steamer doubt Buehrle’s ability to hit 200.o IP?  The lefty took the opposite trajectory of Dickey in some ways, starting the season playing at a Cy Young level, then losing steam as the Summer wore on.  If Buehrle could post this exact same stat line in 2015, I’d be more than happy.  If he can give the Blue Jays’ lineup 6-7 innings and keep them close, Buehrle could see a couple extra wins.

Drew Hutchison

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Steamer didn’t have as much confidence in Hutchison’s ability to throw a lot of innings last season, and understandably so.  Thankfully, the righty was able to be a staple in the Blue Jays rotation and flashed some very encouraging signs through 2014.  Another 30+ starts from Hutchison in 2015 would be great, especially if he can lower that ERA and keep his strikeout pitches rolling.

Next: Stroman, Happ and the bullpen

Sep 27, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Aaron Sanchez pitches against Baltimore Orioles in the seventh inning against Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Blue Jays won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Todd Redmond

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The Janitor!  Steamer projected Redmond to start eight ball games for the Blue Jays, but it’s likely for the best that he didn’t need to.  Redmond outperformed his projections in 2014, and although he rarely saw action in high leverage situations, his ability to throw several innings from the bullpen was extremely valuable to the Blue Jays and helped to keep other arms fresh.  Redmond may someday become unnecessary with Chad Jenkins in the fold, but he’s the type of player that I’m just fine having around the bottom of a roster.

Steve Delabar

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After a big 2013, many expected Delabar to regress in some way, but never this much.  With 19 walks and 21 strikeouts, Delabar never gave himself a chance on the mound.  To succeed, he needs to get ahead in the count early and attack with his split-finger.  Given that this pitch rarely finishes in the zone, he struggled to pitch from behind in 2014.  Looking to next season, he’s a prime candidate to bounce back and take a surprise role in the Blue Jays’ bullpen.

Sergio Santos

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I almost feel that I should apologize for showing you all this projection, but this is what could have been for the hard-throwing righty.  Santos’ season went off the rails fast though, which created a hole in the Blue Jays’ bullpen that they struggled to fill throughout the year.  He’s the LA Dodgers’ problem now.

Aaron Sanchez

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Sanchez also wasn’t given a significant Steamer projection prior to 2014, but his performance in limited action certainly inspired a great deal of excitement in Toronto.  His 2015 projections aren’t pretty, though, and some fear he will struggle to find the zone and get batters out the second and third time through lineups.  The abilities are there to be a stud at the top of a rotation, however, and that journey begins this Spring.

Chad Jenkins

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Jenkins was projected to start eight games as well, but he seems to be a bullpen man for good.  That’s not a bad thing.  The big righty outperformed his projections by a mile, which were fairly harsh entering last season.  In 2015, Jenkins is a candidate to get the ball in the 7th inning a little more often, instead of his usual long-man role.

Brandon Morrow

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Steamer set the bar pretty low for Morrow in 2014, but he still fell clear below it.  Now a member of the San Diego Padres, Morrow will be remembered for flashes of brilliance and what could have been.

Marco Estrada

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The new man in town, Estrada came over in the Adam Lind deal and will likely pitch from the bullpen, but don’t be surprised to see him take the mound for a few starts through the season.  His 2014 Steamer projected him to make 25 appearances, all starts, but Estrada ended up making 18 starts in 39 games.  His HR numbers should make you cringe, a lot, but if they can come down a bit the Blue Jays could have something.