AL East Round Up: Numbers Edition

Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to this week’s AL East Round Up. Let me just throw this out there…I HATE MATH! I loathe it. I barely got by high school Math. In university, I failed statistics mightily. I should have known something was up when the prof said half of you will fail this class and then looked at me. All of this is slightly ironic given that my passion is a sport that is chock a block full of statistics, math and numbers.

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Whether it is sabermetrics or random numbers fans throw out to justify their rage, their joy or their smug arrogance toward their friends.

The end of the 2014 season is approaching and numbers are starting to pile up. I thought it would be interesting to look at some numbers this week. Teams will be looking to numbers carefully in hopes that they have a chance at glory. You see, the play off push is on. Some teams have a slim, yet mathematical chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot. Another team is loving numbers right now. While another team should be afraid of numbers. As well, there are some other really interesting numbers. Lets take a look. Here are the numbers found in the standings:

Baltimore Orioles 82-59
New York Yankees 73-67 (8.5 GB)
Toronto Blue Jays 72-69 (12 GB)
Tampa Bay Rays 69-74 (14 GB)
Boston Red Sox 63-79 (19.5 GB)

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles lead the division and look to be headnig for October baseball. They are loving numbers right now. According to MLB.com, they have a postseason probability of 99.8%! They have a better chance of making the play offs than the chance of the chance that Buck Martinez‘ hair will be in the same place every time you see him. And, that’s saying something.

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Here are some other interesting numbers the Orioles are facing:

-The Orioles are 7th in MLB with 613 runs scored. They are 5th in hits with 1254. They sit 3rd in slugging percentage with .422

-Their pitching has not been as bad as some thought it would be. They sit in 2nd with 82 wins. They are 3rd with 46 saves. But those numbers can be misleading. If the Orioles are going to do well in the post season, they will need to improve on the following numbers. They sit 12th with a WHIP of 1.26.   Their opponents’ average of .247 is 11th on the list. Their starters need to give them innings. Which is something that has been an issue this season as they sit in 14th spot.

These numbers may not look pretty, but for now, they are good enough for the Orioles to pop some bubbly at season’s end.

New York Yankees

The Yankees currently are on the outside looking in. They have a mathematical chance of making the post season. But Math has no emotion. It can’t and won’t console you. The numbers are what they are. As much as it looks like they are still alive, their playoff probability percentage sits at just 1.7%.

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Lets’ look at some Yankee numbers:

– The Bronx Bombers are 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race. There are 4 teams ahead of them, 2 of whom hold the spots. There are 22 games remaining. Time is running out for them to leap frog these other teams. Their elimination number sits at 14. Depending on the number of upcoming Oriole wins and Yankee losses, this number may be reached soon. Their Wild Card elimination number is 18.

– The Yankees’ ERA is good enough for 19th in MLB at 3.79. They are 13th in wins at 73. They are also 28th(!) in innings pitched at 1257.1. Considering these not so good numbers, it comes as a bit of a surprise that the Yankees sit in 5th spot with 1181 strike outs. now we all know the troubles the Yankees have had with their rotation. From injuries to pine tar to more injuries, they have been piecemeal-ing their way through 2014. So, we should look out this off season. They’ll once again look to bolster their rotation because not making the playoffs is unacceptable in New York.

-Speaking of which a number that I really want to look at is this: The Yankees started 2014 with the 2nd highest payroll, a whopping $204,812,506! I’m not sure whose contract is costing them that extra $6, but it is odd. However, our attention should be at the other end of that number. TWO HUNDRED MILLION! It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the payroll issue as they try to make room for Jon Lester. Think they won’t?

Toronto Blue Jays

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Oh, man. Every day, my friends ask me, “Do you think they have a chance?” Of course they do. The math says so. Yet, math doesn’t show the reality. Right now the Blue Jays are 6 games back of the Wild Card and 10 back of the Orioles. With just 21 games remaining, their elimination number in the division is 12 and their Wild Card elimination number is 16. They have a 1.5% chance of making the playoffs. So, to quote Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber, “So your saying there’s a chance”. A streak of 3 wins against the Rays made math look better, but then 2 losses to the Red Sox and math is just as cruel as it was in high school.

– The Blue Jays offense is not really the problem this year. They are near the top of MLB in offensive categories. They’re 5th with a .260 average, 4th in slugging (.418), 4th in hits (1261), 6th in runs (625) and 3rd in home runs (161).

Betsided

Another frustrating is the number 1. As in how many dimensions this offense has. They live (and die) by the long ball. I read the other day* that home runs have accounted for between 6- 15% of runs in baseball. That’s it. The Blue Jays need to improve on the other 85% of scoring runs. If a strength of your team, the sole strength is only 15% , is it really a strength?

-Sigh, do we really want to talk about the pitching numbers? Oh alright. But, don’t say I warned you. If your squeamish, you might want to look away…the Jays sit at 24th in ERA (4.12), 16th in wins (72), 25th in innings pitched (1258.2), 25th in WHIP (1.35) and…no, I can’t do it anymore. It’s too ugly.

Considering the above numbers, the Blue Jays (and fans) should feel lucky to have not been eliminated already.

*When I find the link to where I read this, I will update this post.

Boston Red Sox

There is one team who should be fearing numbers right now. The Red Sox sit in last place.

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Remember, these are the defending World Series Champions. I use the term “defending” loosely, of course. They are 16 games UNDER .500, 19.5 games back in the division with an elimination number of 2. That means with an Oriole win and a Red Sox loss, they’re eliminated from the division race. In the Wild Card race, the Sox are 15.5 games back and have an elimination number of 6, so there’s a bit more hope, right? Nope. The math says they have a playoff probability of 0.0%. That’s right, ladies and gentlemen, the Red Sox have NO CHANCE of making the post season in 2014.

Let’s look at some other numbers. How about Big Papi, David Ortiz. The iconic slugger will turn 39 in November. It seems like every year we are saying, he’s done, he’s too old, he won’t produce. Yet, this season, all the 9 time All Star has done is hit.

The Red Sox took a risk with Ortiz. He’s signed through 2015 and they hold an option for 2016 and 2017. Maybe, with the options, it isn’t that risky. It tells the player you want him, but it doesn’t handcuff the team if he declines. It’s just…will he ever decline?

The other question is: Do the Red Sox have the well over $100 million it is going to take to bring Jon Lester back? He’ll be a free agent. He loves Boston. Part of me says he’ll return to Boston and the free agent process is just a formality. But, considering the REALLY low ball offer of $70M they gave him previously, there is room for doubt. The Yankees will certainly be in play. Other teams should be as well. Lester would be a fool to not listen to them. But, no one should be surprised to see him in a Red Sox uniform next year. And, the Sox will come off smelling like roses. Look at the talent they picked up for unloading Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavey and Andrew Miller.

Don’t look for the Red Sox to repeat 2014 numbers next season.