I went to bed after a long hard day believing that the Jays had this one in the bag. But, knowing that things happen quickly sometimes, I changed the channel on my TV, brought it back to the game (so it wouldn’t add 2 hours of baseball I had watched to the DVR) and set it to record the last inning. What I saw when I watched it this morning was about as horrible a game-ending as one could imagine. (more…)

Why is it impressive and unexpected? (more…)

Here’s a run down of what I’ve noticed to this point: (more…)

Yunel Escobar, who managed a .275 average and .696 OPS in 60 games since coming over to the Jays in a mid-season trade, received a 1-year, $2.9M contract in his first arbitration eligible season, which was a $2.465M raise over his 2010 salary. Out of the players that were able to avoid arbitration, Escobar received the highest salary, and the Jays are likely hoping for him to return to his 2009 form, when he hit .299/.377/.436 in 141 games for the Atlanta Braves.

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• The Octavio Dotel signing seems to be as official as it’s going to get until he passes a physical in the new year. It’s no formality at his age, so standby to standby as they say. The interesting part of the deal is the $2.5 million value with a $750,000 buyout of a second season which is a club option worth a reported $3.75 million if exercised. At first glance, you may think that this is to benefit the player, as he gets paid if the Jays decide to not resign him. However, this tool actually works to AA’s advantage as he can decide to keep Dotel around if his value goes below that of a Type-B or Type-A FA. Keeping him around another season allows him the opportunity to get back to that level, and to get the Jays a Kevin Gregg style draft pick. He’s a welcomed addition to a Jays pen that will need to depend on some new faces in 2011. (more…)

image courtesy of prorumors.com

• RHP Octavio Dotel, age 37, closer-setup – excellent vs RHB and horrific vs LHB (.301/.412/.582) in 2010
• LHP David Purcey, age 28, closer-setup – excelled against both RHB  and LHB in 2010
• RHP Jason Frasor, age 33, closer-setup, good vs RHP and mediocre vs LHB (.361 OBP in 2010)
• RHP Casey Janssen, age 29, reliever – excelled against RHB, struggled against LHB (.283/.382/.416) in 2010
• RHP Shawn Camp, age 35, reliever – excelled against RHB, struggled against LHB (.299/.364/.467) in 2010
• RHP Carlos Villanueva, age 27, reliever-spot starter-long relief – good vs RHB, ok vs LHB (.232/.333/.434) but not great in 2010
• RHP Jesse Litsch reliever or AAA starter (as things look today), I say reliever…for now simply because I think the Jays still want to see if Stewart can start as he gets more experience in AA or AAA – struggled against both LHB and RHB as he returned from injury in 2010 (more…)

(image courtesy of wikipedia)

Jon Paul Morosi recently linked the Jays to ex-Twin reliever Matt Guerrier, and we also know the Jays are interested in another ex-Twin and Canadian, Jesse Crain, who was born in none other than Toronto. If the Jays were to add both relievers, it would provide them with a very much needed level of experience – both during the regular and post-season – that would go a long way to rebuilding the pen into a top 10 contender. With news that Jason Frasor accepted arbitration, this trio could become the bulk of the back end of the pen, with only the closing position left to be fixed this off season.

Although it would be a great start to the rebuilding of the Jays pen to add those 2 relievers, would it make the Jays pen any better overall? After all, what the Jays want is not to simply replace those who are leaving, but it is to improve the pen so that the Jays can make a real playoff run in 2011. If we all agree that the closing position is still very much in the air despite Jason Frasor‘s 36 career saves, we can evaluate what the other 6 pen members may look like should both Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier sign with the Jays this off season. (more…)

The Closer Situation:

There are 2 trains of thought when it comes to closers and I’m sure we know exactly where Alex Anthopolous stands on the issue. There’s 1 train of thought that says you must have a top notch closer to win in baseball, and there’s another that says that you can find a good enough option out there without having to overspend. Well, last off season when Alex Anthopolous took Kevin Gregg on, everyone thought he was crazy. They said he’s get eaten alive in the AL East and would never become the closer. They preferred Scott Downs or Jason Frasor in the role. Well, now that we know what we know, and 37 saves later, Kevin Gregg looked like a decent pickup to fill the void left behind by the injury plagued BJ Ryan.

Now, that’s not to say that this off season will be different. There are some options sitting out there that look very attractive for the Jays and that could help solidify an area that I credit with enough losses to cost the Jays a playoff run. If the Jays pen had been better in 2010, it’s possible that they could have made a better run at the end of the year. Here are my candidates, put in the role either by trade, by FA acquisition, or internally:

Through Trade

1 – Heath Bell – 6-1/ 1.93 ERA/ 70 IP/ 56 HA/ 1 HR/ 28 BB/ 86 Ks

This guy is my top choice if I have the goods to get him and can afford the talent transfer. Not only is he still relatively young at 33, but he’s a great club house presence, would add leadership to the pen, and has been as dominant as it gets in recent years. If the Padres have any chance of being competitive over the next decade, they’re place in the daunting scenario of being forced to trade both Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell. Feels like the Doc Halladay deal did for the Jays, but Gonzo is their big fish. Heath may cost the Jays 2-3 prospects depending on the talent, but he won’t cost a king’s ransom like Gonzo will. It would be a pipe dram for the Jays to get both, but how great would that be?

I know what many people are thinking, take Heath Bell out of San Diego, and maybe he gives up more hits and more HRs, spiking his stats to the negative side. I don’t buy that one bit and can prove it as follows:

Bell’s home stats: 35 games, 131 batters faced, 30 hits allowed (.229 avg), .303 OBP, 2.25 ERA, 19 saves, 13 walks, 48 Ks

Bell’s away stats: 32 games, 122 batters faced, 26 hits allowed (.213 avg), .297 OBP, 1.59 ERA, 28 saves, 15 walks, 38 Ks

Not only did hitters fare worst against Bell while he was on the road, but he lowered his ERA by a fair amount, indicating that he’s more than comfortable feeling the heat of unfriendly crowds.

The cost? I’m not sure, but starting with decent SP and OF prospects would be a good start. They may also have interest in David Cooper or Michael McDade who could give them some protection once they deal Adrian Gonzalez. The Jays would probably want to extend Bell for another 2 years as he is entering his last year of Arbitration after making $4,000,000 in 2010, but they are in a position to afford him and would get exactly the kind of leader the pen needs for a fair price.

2 – Jonathan Papelbon -5-7/ 3.90 ERA/ 67 IP/ 57 HA/ 28 BB/ 76 Ks/ 1.269 Whip (more…)

Over his last 10 games, Brandon is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA, 62 IP, 54 HA, 22 ER, 21 BB, and 60 Ks. If we take out the two “bad” games against the Yankees (5 ER) and Red Sox (4 ER), we’re left with 2 games where he allowed 3 ERs, and the remainder are all 2 ERs and under. That’s a very consistent stretch of games and a reflection that everyone was right, leaving him in the rotation (with the right coaching and help of course) would lead to a blossoming of his skills as a starter. The Jays have to be happy to see Brandon pitch so well. (more…)