Welcome to the Show, Mr. Nolin!
Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Blue Jays left hander has a fastball that sits around high 80′s to low 90′s, curve ball, changeup and slider (one that he’s only picked up this past year). As well, since reaching A+ Dunedin last year, he’s gone 12-0 with a 1.93 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.47 BB/9, 9.56 K/9 and 0.54 HR/9 over 116.2 innings of work over A+ and AA New Hampshire. You can read more about Sean Nolin on our own prospect writeup here.

Knowing the Blue Jays current pitching woes (read: having Ramon Ortiz in your starting rotation), it was clear that Sean Nolin was going to be rushed to the majors sooner rather than later. Alex Anthopoulos himself said that he was likely to be called up this year, and being able to shutdown the competition in the minors might result in some stop-gap innings while Josh Johnson and J.A. Happ come back from injury. On the other side of the coin, bringing up a guy too early can be a bad thing, especially if it stunts his development.

Just like the Ricky Romero call up, this move is out of desperation. The team is 46 games into the season, and very close to getting to a point of no return 9 games back of the division-leading Yankees. Bringing in Sean Nolin now means that the Blue Jays are more focused on making up ground in a tough AL East division than taking it slow and steady with Nolin’s development. Hopefully it will result in a pleasant surprise, similar to Drew Hutchison‘s early MLB call up (minus the TJ surgery).

In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The seventh and final part of the series will look at left handed pitchers, perhaps the most unusual position in all of baseball. As Barry Zito displayed during the MLB playoffs, when coming from the left side, smarts and deception can be just as valuable as raw stuff. Left handed pitchers almost always find themselves in demand, as even when they’ve seen their stuff significantly diminished, there’s always the lefty specialist role that every team needs to fill. The bane of Adam Lind, Randy Choate, is an excellent example, as despite racking up just 20-50 innings every year, he still finds a team willing to pay him a million dollars a year to do it. Hopefully, the left handed pitcher prospects in the Blue Jays system can be significantly better than LOOGYs, however.

• Top left handed pitcher prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Ricky Romero
• Left handed pitchers in 2012 Top 30: 3
• Left handed pitcher WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Ricky Romero (10.4), Brett Cecil/Scott Downs (3.6)

The King in the North

Justin Nicolino – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
10-4, 124.1 IP, 112 H, 34 ER, 6 HR, 21 BB, 119 K
2.46 ERA (2.54 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 8.61 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 1.64 GO/AO

Nicolino pitching for the Lansing Lugnuts in April 2012 (Image courtesy MLBProspectPortal.com)

NOTE: Just a day after writing this section, Nicolino was traded to the Miami Marlins. While he’ll no longer be under consideration for my top 30 prospects ranking starting next week, removing him would too drastically alter the shape of this primer. So, enjoy, Marlins fans?

Justin Nicolino was the picture of consistency last season. From April through the end of August, he appeared in five or six games each and every month, never missing a start. Furthermore, his month-by-month ERAs ranged from 0.00 (in April), to 4.28 (July). At his best, he was untouchable. At his worst, he was an average pitcher. You can break it down even further; after Nicolino was separated from Aaron Sanchez and given his own spot in the rotation on June 16th, he made 16 starts, and 15 of those 16 were for five innings or more. Beyond just the strength of his statistics, every time Nicolino took to the mound, he gave his team a good chance to win, and gave his bullpen some much deserved rest. From a 20 year old pitcher in Single-A, that’s remarkable.

The reasoning behind Nicolino’s surprising polish and maturity is simple; he learned how to be good when he was a bad pitcher. While Nicolino has good height at 6-foot-3, he doesn’t have a ton of muscle mass, weighing in around 170 pounds. Incredibly, that’s a significant improvement upon high school, when he may have cracked 150 pounds soaking wet. The 16/17 year old Nicolino was struggling to touch 85 miles per hour, so he forced himself to learn how to pitch, not just throw, far earlier than most prospects. He practiced changing speeds, moving balls out of the swing plane, doubling up on pitch and location, and scraping the edges of the plate for much needed called strikes.

It wasn’t until he turned 18 that he finally began to see some muscle development and bulk, and suddenly he was finding the high 80’s with relative ease. Now 20 years old, Nicolino can get his fastball up to 88-92 miles per hour consistently, while still maintaining the pinpoint control and command he learned when he was younger. The pitch has some arm side run to it, which helps make up for the presently solid-average velocity.

Nicolino’s best pitch is his changeup, which further protects his fastball and allows the velocity to play up even more. He throws it in the high 70’s (roughly 10-12 mph of separation from his fastball), and has excellent arm speed. It fades down and away from right handed batters with circle-changeup movement, and Nicolino has shown impressive feel for the pitch. It could be argued that the change is already a plus pitch on the Major League level, and could grade even higher as he continues to mature as a pitcher. Without question, it’s the best changeup in the system. Rounding out the repertoire is a curveball that has flashed above average potential with good break and tight rotation, but is still lacking consistent form.

His command and control is also the best in the system. Nicolino is an expert at pitch sequencing and his baseball intelligence is off the charts. After seeing batters, he quickly makes adjustments for their second and third plate appearances, using his strengths to target and expose their weaknesses. He’s going to find himself in Dunedin next spring, and he should continue to find success as he ascends the minor league level. A stop in New Hampshire next summer is all but guaranteed, and Nicolino is on track to be the first of the Lansing Three to see Toronto – perhaps as early as the summer of 2014.

The Question Mark

Daniel Norris – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
2-4, 42.2 IP, 58 H, 40 ER, 4 HR, 18 BB, 43 K
8.44 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.78 WHIP, 9.07 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 1.26 GO/AO

Norris pitching for the Bluefield Blue Jays in the summer of 2012 (Image via YourVanCs.com)

Just about everything that was said about Matt Dean and Jacob Anderson on the corner infield and corner outfield primers respectively can be repeated here. Norris was a 2011 draft pick who was signed to an above slot bonus (2 million). He made his professional debut with Bluefield in 2012, and despite receiving excellent grades across the board for his stuff, he crashed and burned in the Appalachian League. The difference is, with Dean and Anderson, they were very raw, and some early career struggles were expected. That’s not quite the case with Norris. In Tennessee, he pitched for the highly regarded Science Hill high school, and received a substantial amount of innings in a competitive environment. I was hoping/expecting he’d start his career in Lansing, but when I saw the Bluefield assignment, I thought he would breeze through short season ball. That didn’t happen, and given how hard and consistently the rookie league hitters pounded Norris, there are some serious questions about him moving forward.

The questions are less about the stuff and more about the mechanics, which were a problem during his high school career as well. Norris has a complex windup, which has lead to consistent inconsistency with the delivery. His timing gets thrown off and his pitching arm lags behind, leading to a late release point and pitches peppering the upper half of the zone. Norris is supremely athletic and an excellent student of the game, so if anyone can get past mechanical woes, it’s him. Norris works from a straight 3/4 arm slot, and while his arm action is good, there’s some effort there. It’s not enough that you need to start throwing the reliever label around, but it’s something to monitor, particularly if he undergoes velocity fluctuations like he did throughout 2012.

At times, Norris will pitch 89-92, while other times he’ll get it up to 93-95 miles per hour. Regardless of the pitch speed, the movement is excellent, as Norris will throw it with sink as well as with two-seam fastball action. When his mechanics are smooth he shows good fastball command, but when he falls apart, it goes downhill quickly. Norris has two potentially plus offspeed pitches in his curveball and changeup. The curve is thrown in the upper 70’s, and he has flashed some very tight spin and late break when mechanically sound. Other times it gets loopy, and he throws it in the dirt more often than not. The changeup was advanced coming out of high school and continued to improve despite his poor season overall. It has straight sink and is thrown between 80 and 83 mph, with sneaky arm speed. Norris will throw a slider as well, and it shows some tilt, but it can take away from his curveball as the two can start to blend together and act like a slurve.

The Blue Jays now find themselves in an interesting predicament with Norris. He was widely considered one of the top prep arms during the 2011 draft, and the idea of sending him out for a second year of short season ball must leave a very bad taste in the mouths of the development guys, poor numbers or not. The fact that he managed to throw over 40 innings and that his strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were strong may be enough for the front office to decide Single-A Lansing is the best course of action, and I completely agree. There are plenty of reasons to hold prospects back, but coddling a top arm because you spend a lot of money on him and his numbers weren’t great isn’t one of them. If Norris is as good as he was expected to be and that we all continue to hope he’ll be, he will figure things out. Wasting another year in short season isn’t going to accomplish anything.

On the Rise

Sean Nolin – 2012 team(s): High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire
10-0, 101.1 IP, 81 H, 23 ER, 7 HR, 27 BB, 108 K
2.04 ERA (2.91 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 9.59 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.93 GO/AO

Sean Nolin (RIGHT) poses with his Dunedin teammate, infielder Kevin Nolan, in June (Eddie Michels, Toronto Sun)

Back-to-back impressive seasons have moved Nolin firmly onto the prospect radar, as the continued refinement of his stuff and command have seen his profile rise from a potential number five starter or swing man, up to a potential number three or four starter. A sixth round pick back in that bountiful 2010 draft, Nolin had a shaky short season debut with Auburn, but made palpable strides with Lansing in 2011. He carried over that success to Dunedin (and subsequently New Hampshire) in 2012, and had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the organization. With New Hampshire eliminated from postseason contention, he returned to Dunedin to close out the year, starting the D-Jays’ final playoff game, a 3-0 defeat. The only negative of Nolin’s year was a strained back that cost him nearly two months between early June and late July.

Nolin has a big, durable frame at 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds, and he uses the strength in his lower half well through his delivery, as he drives towards the plate. His arm slot is overhand, which is further benefitted by his height, and makes it really surprising that Nolin has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his minor league career despite such a steep downward plane on his pitches. This is likely due to the fact that despite showing above average velocity (sitting 88-92, touching 93-94), his fastball doesn’t have very much natural movement. It’s the typical four-seam fastball that will have its vertical trajectory drop between one and three inches due to spin, whereas sinkers or two-seam fastballs will usually drop anywhere between four and eight inches.

The two offspeed pitches Nolin features, his changeup and curveball, both project to be solid-average to above average offerings with continued development. The curveball made huge strides during the 2012 season, as it has leapfrogged the changeup to become Nolin’s second best weapon. He’ll throw it in the mid 70’s, and it has a nice plane of break in generating plenty of swings and misses. The straight changeup is a close third, and at 77-80 miles per hour it has nice velocity separation from the fastball. The arm speed is pretty good, but Nolin can often throw it with a little too much firmness, weakening the sink and leaving it susceptible to left handed batters. The overall package is still more control than command, but Nolin made improvements last season, particularly with his fastball. At his age and size, there’s not much physical projection left, so further development will revolve around him continuing to learn how to pitch and commanding the offspeed stuff.

Having already pitched two years of full season ball, Nolin is on track to be the first of the next wave of arms to reach Toronto. With his well-rounded three pitch repertoire he should be ready to pitch in the big league rotation by early 2014, but if the Blue Jays are in the playoff hunt in late 2013, he could temporarily serve out of the bullpen in a lefty-punishing role (with Dunedin in 2012, he had a 37-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 28 innings against lefties). He may lack the ceiling of pitchers like Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, but he’s the only potentially above average starter in the system with experience at the Double-A level – where he’ll return to start the 2013 season. Hopefully the organization can avoid a repeat of 2012 where they prematurely promoted Drew Hutchison due to poor pitching depth at the major league level, as Nolin may make such a decision very appealing.

Dream on Me

Matt Smoral – 2012 team: N/A

Matt Smoral has all kinds of length (Image courtesy of Jim Olexa and Cleveland.com)

At 2 million dollars, Matt Smoral received the largest signing bonus of any Blue Jays selection from the 2012 draft, ahead of even Toronto’s top two picks, first rounders D.J. Davis and Marcus Stroman. There are two main justifications as to why Toronto was forced to hand over such a substantial bonus. The first is that, by ability, Smoral was a mid-first round talent (Baseball America ranked him 24th overall), and the only reason he fell was a foot injury suffered in April that required surgery. The second aspect is tied to the first, in that Smoral had every reason to pass on the Blue Jays offer and pitch in college. The foot injury damaged his value, and three years at a reputable program in North Carolina could boost him into potential top-5 pick status in 2015. The Blue Jays got the deal finished, and while the surgery eliminated any chance of a draft year debut, Smoral should be 100% ready when spring training rolls around in February.

Smoral’s size and repertoire have drawn some half hearted Randy Johnson comps, and while that’s really fun to think about, Smoral has a long, long (long) way to go before he should even be mentioned in the same breath as one of the best pitchers in baseball history. His height is the first thing you notice, as at 6-foot-8 (or 6-foot-7, depending upon who you ask), Smoral is the tallest guy in the room everywhere he goes. He’s got some solid mass at 225 pounds, but much of it is located in the lower half, whereas his arms and chest are still a little on the skinny side. As the 18 year old continues to physically develop, that should only further augment a fastball that already sits between 90 and 94 miles per hour – velocity that comes very easily to him. Smoral delivers the ball from a low 3/4 arm slot, which gives it some natural cutting action and creates a very difficult angle for hitters to pick up the ball from, particularly lefties.

The arm slot is extremely beneficial to his slider as well, and the breaking ball is already being called his best pitch. Future grades of plus and even plus-plus have been thrown on the 82-85 mph offering, as it’s extremely hard and has sharp break. Smoral will throw a low 80’s changeup, but thanks to his overpowering 1-2 combo it was seldom used in high school. He has good arm action on the pitch and it has late sink, but Smoral can occasionally have difficulties getting on top of the ball and leaves it up. He’s been known to throw a curveball as well, and he’s actually shown the ability to get some nice spin rotation on it, but the pitch takes a back seat to the power slider and is clearly his fourth pitch at this point. Smoral is very athletic for his size, and given the strides he’s made since the summer of 2010, scouts are very optimistic on his development moving forward.

If the front office’s decisions from 2012 are any indication, Matt Smoral is looking at a Bluefield assignment to open up his Blue Jays career. Smoral has upside for days, but given the layoff he’ll have had (it will be 14 months between competitive, non-intra-squad games) and the lack of innings he threw as a whole in 2012, the organization is going to play it safe. Much like Norris, Roberto Osuna, Joe Musgrove, Kevin Comer et al. last season, Smoral is likely to find himself paired with another pitcher, throwing 3-4 innings in a game every four or five days for at least the first part of Bluefield’s season. From there, if his foot is holding up, Smoral should see his workload expand, and may even find himself in Vancouver before the summer is finished. He’s a long way away, but at 6-foot-8, there’s a whole lot of pitcher to dream on here.

The Bullpen Guy

Griffin Murphy – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
1-2, 39.1 IP, 26 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 13 BB, 44 K
1.83 ERA (2.51 FIP), 0.99 WHIP, 10.07 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 1.03 GO/AO

Murphy pitching for his high school team, Redlands East Valley (The Press-Enterprise, Mark Zaleski)

Hey, remember that much talked about 2010 draft? Here’s yet another promising arm who joined the organization in it, with Murphy being selected in the second round and receiving an 800 thousand dollar signing bonus. While not a true reliever as of yet (he made just two starts against 15 relief appearances in 2012, many of which went for multiple innings), all signs point to Murphy eventually filling that role as he ascends the minor leagues. He falls into the numbers game, as while in some organizations he may be viewed as a potential back-end starter, there’s simply not going to be any room in Toronto’s rotation if/when he arrives. The Bluefield assignment was rather disappointing (he could have at least pitched in Vancouver to open the year, if not Lansing), but he made the most of his opportunity, with his season highlighted by a scoreless streak that eclipsed 25 innings.

As I touched on above, the reason why I feel Murphy will eventually move to the bullpen is due to a lack of room, not a lack of a viable third pitch. Quite the contrary, in fact, as between his fastball, curveball, and changeup, Murphy features three pitches with average to above average potential, and all have shown some impressive polish. His best offering of the three is his fastball, which has fringe-plus velocity from the left side, clocking in between 89-92 miles per hour, touching 93-94. The movement is merely average, but Murphy has excellent fastball command, locating the pitch safely on the corners both inside and outside.

Throwing from a high 3/4 arm slot, Murphy does his best to get on top of the ball and create a downward plane on his pitches, particularly his offspeed stuff. The curveball has 12-to-6 movement (or close enough), and has nice form and shape while being thrown in the mid 70’s. It has sharp break when he’s throwing it well, but when he fails to get on top of the ball it loops with an easy to pick up arc to the plate. He has good arm speed on the straight change, and the pitch shows solid sink at the plate. The command of the offspeed isn’t quite to the level of his fastball command, but still falls within the average range.

Murphy is more than ready for Lansing, and given that the organization will likely have the Lugnuts once again employ a piggyback system to open the year, he could prove to be a very valuable asset to have there in 2013. He’s in a similar boat to that of the recently departed Anthony DeSclafani, as while the bullpen is his best and likely eventual role, it’s easier for him to develop his pitches and command if he’s throwing 100 innings in a season instead of 50. The Blue Jays could piggyback Murphy with one of the younger arms they’re being very protective of – like a Roberto Osuna, for example – or simply use him as a long/swing man to throw multiple innings of relief a few times every week. With a full year of innings under his belt, Murphy could then be placed on the fast track, with a bullpen debut in Toronto as early as late 2014 not out of the question.

Remember the Name

Jairo Labourt – 2012 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
0-3, 38.0 IP, 38 H, 16 ER, 2 HR, 23 BB, 39 K
3.79 ERA (3.65 FIP), 1.61 WHIP, 9.24 K/9, 5.45 BB/9, 0.70 GO/AO

Like Alberto Tirado on the right handed pitcher primer, Jairo Labourt was an under the radar international signing, though he came a few months later in January of 2011. He was eligible to be signed in the previous July, but it wasn’t until his stuff improved a notch over the fall and winter that he really began to draw attention. The Blue Jays delivered the left hander a bonus worth 350 thousand dollars, and because he technically signed during the 2010 period, he was able to pitch that same summer. Working for the Blue Jays Dominican League affiliate, Labourt made 12 starts, throwing just over 36 innings while carrying a 2.23 ERA. He jumped stateside as an 18 year old this past summer, and showed both an uptick in velocity and strikeout rate. He’s very much still a work in progress, however, evident by the 5.45 walks per nine.

The 18 year old Labourt doesn’t have as much physical projection left as most Latin American pitchers, as at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, he’s already a fairly big and muscular guy. He’s athletic as well, which noticeably translates into his delivery. It’s very smooth and the mechanics are clean, but Labourt has struggled to consistently repeat the motions, which has lead to the control problems I mentioned above.

Labourt’s fastball has already flashed plus velocity, as while the pitch sits in the 88-92 mph range, it’s touching as high as 94. He attempts to play up the velocity even further by using a changeup, but it’s still very raw and can be picked up with relative ease. Unsurprisingly, he’s been pumped by right handed batters early in his career, as in 2012 alone he surrendered 30 hits and 14 walks in just 24.2 innings against them (5.11 ERA). He’ll need to significantly improve the pitch moving forward. Working in his favor, however, is an advanced curveball with tight spin and plenty of depth. It’s an excellent chase pitch, and has been a big factor in his above average strikeout rate thus far in his career.

It’s probable the Blue Jays will continue to move things along slowly with Labourt, so Bluefield appears to be the most appropriate destination in 2013. His inning totals have been satisfactory thus far, but with Labourt now 18 and entering his third year in short season ball, I expect the reins will be loosened slightly, with perhaps more four and five inning starts. The organization would likely prefer to see him work his way into the 50-plus innings range next year, allowing for a full season assignment in 2014 without too many workload restrictions. His stuff from the left side makes him a name to follow, and if he can harness in some of that control, he could make some serious waves next summer and beyond.

Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 0-0, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

On August 31st, Noah Syndergaard pitched the second best game of any Blue Jays minor leaguer this season, with the best being Roberto Osuna’s late July 13-strikeout gem. Facing South Bend for the fourth time this season, the hitters failed to take advantage of their extended looks, as just one out was recorded outside of the infield grass. The other 14 came by way of strikeout or ground out, a masterful performance from beginning to end. In total, Syndergaard allowed just one base runner, a first inning single by Tom Belza. The game finished off a fabulous second half of the season, as since the Midwest League All Star break in late June, Syndergaard has a microscopic 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Those who are thinking Aaron Sanchez is easily the top pitching prospect in the system may want to have a second look.

2. C Yan Gomes (LAS): 32 AB, .406/.444/.656 (1.100 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 3/7 BB/K

When Yan Gomes was called up to Toronto the first time, he had a number of big hits and really helped the team when it needed it most. The other call-ups, however, didn’t go nearly as smoothly. In total, Gomes produced a .165/.225/.316 batting line in 33 games for the big club, and often times the swings were just as ugly as the box score suggested. The minor leagues were a different story, as this week capped off a breakout season for the Brazilian. He had at least one hit in each of his eight games, and showed his usual extra base power with two doubles and two home runs. Gomes has done enough over the last two seasons to show he can hit upper level minor league pitching, the next step is proving he’s not just another quad-A player.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 1-0, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Sean Nolin has not received the credit due to him for his monster 2012 season. He had yet another dominant outing on August 30th, allowing just one run on three base runners in six innings while striking out seven, earning the win. While pitcher win/loss records are useless in terms of analysis, the outing pushed Nolin’s mark to 10-0 on the season, which certainly looks nice on paper. What’s ever better, however, is his 2.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Additionally, his peripheral values (9.59 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9) suggest he’s been pitching to his talent and not just getting lucky, leading to a very strong fielding independent pitching number of 2.77. Backing up that value is his 3.16 FIP from the 2011 season, indicating we have a very real prospect on our hands.

4. CF Jake Marisnick (NH): 37 AB, .351/.359/.595 (.924 OPS), 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 1/3 BB/K

Without a doubt, Jake Marisnick had the most disappointing season of any Blue Jays prospect. I ranked him as the second best in the system over the winter, and was certainly expecting more than the .719 OPS he produced between the Florida State League and Eastern League. At least he finished the season on a positive note, as after failing to appear on the hot sheet for two months, his late August performance earned him a spot on the final list of the year. Marisnick played in eight games this week, and had two base hits in six of them. The walks were down – as they were for his entire stay with the Fisher Cats – but he finally displayed some of the power that allowed him to bust onto the scene for the Lugnuts last season. With New Hampshire long eliminated from post season action, Marisnick can take some time and prepare himself for the Arizona Fall League, where the environment and his hitting ability should combine to produce some gaudy numbers.

5. SS Ryan Goins (NH): 29 AB, 10 H, .345/.441/.552 (.993 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 5/6 BB/K

At 24 years old Goins isn’t much of a prospect, but he’s done enough over the past two seasons to receive a mention when he has one of the best weeks of his career. He filled up the stat sheet, showing good plate discipline, solid power, and surprising speed – his three stolen bases this week alone bested his 2011 total of two. Goins’ slash lines over the past two seasons have been eerily similar, as in 2011 while playing for the D-Jays, he hit .284/.340/.404 (.745). This season, with New Hampshire, he concluded the year with a .289/.342/.403 (.745) line. He doesn’t have strong enough tools to play regularly in the major leagues, but with a strong 2013 season he might be able to carve out a niche as a Mike McCoy type player, either with Toronto or somewhere else.

6. 1B Mike McDade (LAS): 23 AB, .348/.464/.522 (.986 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 5/6 BB/K

Back and healthy after a trip to the disabled list earlier this month, McDade had a very strong week in limited playing time. Unlike the other hitters on the list who saw action in seven or eight games, McDade played in just six, but did enough in those games to earn the final spot on the final hot sheet of the season. He proved a couple of things with his 2012 performance; first, that he’s probably better than a lot of us gave him credit for, and second, that even with an uptick in performance he still doesn’t hit enough to be a major league first baseman. It’s a shame, as McDade has solid power, an average bat, and is strong defensively, but the rule of first basemen is harsh and unforgiving – and rightly so. If you’re dreaming on a first base prospect who might have an OPS upwards of .800 in his prime years, you’re probably doing the baseball thing wrong.

1. CF D.J. Davis (BLU): 29 AB, 9 H, .310/.394/.552 (.946 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 SB, 3/7 BB/K

D.J. Davis was Toronto's number one pick in the 2012 draft (Image courtesy PerfectGame.org)

The Blue Jays number one pick in last June appears to have taken a real liking to Bluefield. Since being promoted up from the Gulf Coast League in mid-August, Davis has filled up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. This week was no different, as he reached base in each of his seven games, and reached at least twice in five of those seven. With his on-base percentage sitting at a lovely .394 for the week, his legs took over, as Davis racked up four more stolen bases, giving him a total of 24 in 55 games. That’s roughly a 70 stolen base pace over the course of a full season. That’s what scouts call 80 speed. The most pleasant part of Davis’ debut has been the power, as while few called him a slap hitter out of the draft, no one suggested a 148 ISO in year one either. Davis has done just that, with 18 extra base hits, including five home runs.

2. RHP Javier Avendano (VAN): 1-0, 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 15 K

Why is Javier Avendano still pitching in the Northwest League? His two starts this week continued a trend of dominance that dates back over a month. Since the 16th of July, Avendano has allowed just four earned runs in 47 innings – a 0.77 ERA. The peripherals have been just as strong, as he struck out 55 and walked just 13. He’s second in the league in ERA and WHIP, and first in strikeouts – twenty ahead of the second place pitcher, Victor Sanchez of the Mariners, who is a top prospect in his own right. Avendano has proven himself in both Lansing and Vancouver, and if I had some input on the minor league decision making, he would have been promoted to Dunedin a month ago. Avendano has been the Northwest League pitcher of the week for two weeks running, and given the numbers above, a third consecutive title is likely headed his way.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 0-0, 9 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 11 K

Last week’s hottest prospect slips to third place this week, due mostly to some shaky command in his August 25th start. Less important than the three walks was his pitch count, as Nolin threw 81 in just four innings, forcing the manager to pull him earlier than we all would have liked. This late in the minor league season, with nearly every pitcher nursing a bit of arm soreness, there was no reason to send him out for the fifth after four stressful innings. Even so, his August 20th start was more than enough to give him a high ranking, as he struck out eight Binghamton batters in five innings, allowing just one run on four hits. With the playoffs well out of reach, the Fisher Cats have just eight days left in their season. Nolin is probably looking at one more start, and at just 4.2 innings shy of 100 for the year, you know he’d love to reach the century mark.

4. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 25 AB, .320/.452/.400 (.852 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 6/3 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney is having the best month of his young career, and is showing Blue Jays fans the talent that made him a second round pick back in the 2010 draft. Sweeney has continued to do what he does best, reaching base in 20 of 24 August games. It hasn’t just been walks, as he’s hit and even hit with some authority. Sweeney has 26 hits in those 24 games, 10 of which have gone for extra base hits. In total, his August slash line is up to .292/.388/.461, which is exceptional production from the hot corner. His overall Vancouver line has risen up to respectability, sitting at .232/.339/.382 through 63 games. A month ago, it was looking like Sweeney was going to fall off my top 30 prospect list altogether, but he’s done enough here in August to tread water and earn himself another look in 2013.

5. RHP John Stilson (NH): 0-0, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

All season I have been pushing the “John Stilson to the bullpen” card, and after a short stint on the disabled list earlier this month, the Blue Jays have finally responded. Stilson simply doesn’t have the mechanics or durability to pitch 200 innings year in and year out – the risk of shoulder aggravation is too great. The 2011 third round pick seems to have taken to the relief role quite well, as in his five total appearances (seven innings), Stilson has allowed just eight base runners and one run, while striking out nine. He even earned his first career save on August 17th – the first of many, I hope. While closing for Texas A&M his stuff played up extremely well, and if that has carried over to pro ball, the Blue Jays could have a very electric reliever on their hands.

6. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Nicolino has appeared on five consecutive hot sheets, which speaks volumes about the type of season the left hander has had down in Lansing. I can’t say enough about the reliability of Nicolino, as since being moved exclusively to the rotation on June 11th, he’s pitched at least four innings in every game, and at least five in 12 of his last 13 starts. In the statistical age we currently live in, durability often gets overlooked, but there’s something to be said for a pitcher who can go out every fifth day and give your team a good chance to win. The fact Nicolino has found this consistency at just 20 years of age makes it that much more impressive. With another week left in the season, plus the playoffs, Nicolino could easily find himself approaching 130 innings before all is said and done. It’s not an insignificant jump (he had just 61 innings in 2011), but as he doesn’t throw max effort on every pitch, the Blue Jays obviously feel Nicolino has the type of arm that can handle such a workload without substantial risk.

7. 2B Christian Lopes (VAN): 24 AB, .375/.423/.417 (.840 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB, 1/4 BB/K

Without a doubt, Christian Lopes has been the star hitter of short season ball in the Toronto organization. He skipped the Gulf Coast League and debuted with Bluefield, and after 49 exceptional games there, he received the promotion the Vancouver. Lopes hasn’t skipped a beat since setting foot on Canadian soil, as he has two or more hits in three of his five games for the club. Between the two levels, his overall season line is a well rounded .290/.347/.478. The Blue Jays may well have found their long term answer at second base, the problem is, at just 19 years old, Lopes is at least a few years away.

Honorable mention: Marcus Knecht (DUN)

1. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Sean Nolin (RIGHT) poses with his Dunedin teammate, infielder Kevin Nolan, in June (Eddie Michels, Toronto Sun)

This week’s hottest prospect earned himself a promotion to Double-A New Hampshire thanks to a season long hot streak that culminated in his dominant performance on the 14th of August against Brevard County. The 6-foot-5 left hander struck out 10 batters in five innings, allowing four hits and zero walks. A pair of runs crossed the plate, but both were unearned due to some shoddy High-A defense behind him. An early June injury sidelined Nolin for the better part of two months, but his overall season numbers of a 2.19 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.38 K/9 across 86.1 innings is highly impressive. When combined with his breakout numbers in the Midwest League back in 2011, we have a very real prospect on our hands. Nolin doesn’t have the stuff to be a top, or even middle of the rotation starter in the major leagues, but he’s establishing himself as a durable pitcher with a solid #4/5 starter ceiling.

2. 3B Gustavo Pierre (LAN): 20 AB, .450/.500/.700 (1.200 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 2/6 BB/K

Pierre opened the season in extended spring training, but after Kellen Sweeney struggled mightily for the Lugnuts over the first two months, Pierre received the bump to Lansing and has progressively improved as the year wore on. In the months he’s received significant playing time, his OPS has increased from .544 in June, to .769 in July, to finally .952 here in August. The 20 year olds overall season line has risen to .260/.317/.414, a vast improvement over the .187/.244/.262 he produced for Lansing in the first half of 2011. Originally a shortstop, historically bad defensive numbers forced a move to third base, where, while still extremely raw, he appears to have settled in. The offensive tools have always been prevalent; harnessing them has always been the problem. After two consecutive years of poor showings, he’s finally displaying the ability that made him a top IFA in 2008.

3. LHP Griffin Murphy (BLU): 0-0, 6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

There is no hotter pitcher in minor league baseball over the past month. Dating back to July 11th, Murphy has pitched 25 innings, and has allowed a total of zero earned runs. Over his last 10 appearances, his ERA is 0.00. In those innings he’s allowed just nine hits and eight walks, while striking out 30. The dominance was exemplified last night, as in his first start for Bluefield – taking the place of recently departed Kevin Comer – he pitched 4.1 innings, allowed zero runs on one hit, and struck out seven. The biggest detractor against Murphy is his age, as the left hander is 21 years old and will turn 22 before next season begins. When I named him the 27th best prospect in the system over the winter, I hoped for a Vancouver or Lansing assignment to accelerate his development and put him on a more ideal timeline. That didn’t happen, and given his numbers, rookie-class Bluefield obviously wasn’t challenging enough. The season is running out of games, but a promotion to Lansing for the playoff run could do wonders for his future with the club.

4. C Santiago Nessy (BLU): 20 AB, .350/.435/.650 (1.085 OPS), 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 3/6 BB/K

With Carlos Perez now a member of the Houston Astros, a void has been created in the low minors for a top catching prospect. Nessy appears to have filled that spot, as after I named him a sleeper prospect entering the year, he’s gone on to produce a .252/.318/.458 slash line for Bluefield. For a catcher, that’s exceptional production. Power has been the calling card for the young Venezuelan, which isn’t particularly surprising given his 6-foot-2, 230 lbs frame. As a highlight of that tool, Nessy hit a home run in four consecutive games between August 11th and August 16th. His eight home runs are first on the team, while his eight doubles are tied for second. The catcher won’t turn 20 until December, and is looking at a Single-A Lansing assignment next year if everything goes to plan. Losing Perez hurts, but Nessy has established himself as a solid replacement in the system.

5. 1B Art Charles (VAN): 21 AB, .333/.440/.714 (1.154 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Power continues to be the defining tool of Art Charles, as even a promotion to the wider dimensions of the Northwest League parks have been unable to contain him. His ISO with the Canadians sits at 245, which is exceptional even for a first baseman. The biggest drop in performance since his promotion has been his walk rate, as entering this week he had just four base-on-balls in 16 games after walking 33 times in 31 games for Bluefield. Charles resolved that problem this week, as in addition to his usual power (two doubles, two home runs), he walked four times while striking out just five times. With the graduation of David Cooper and the low ceiling of Mike McDade, one could argue that Art Charles is now the top first base prospect in the system; though that’s more an indictment of the positional depth than it is a complement to Charles.

6. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Aaron Sanchez has cooled off and been injured. Noah Syndergaard has struggled to find innings as he approaches his season limit. Meanwhile, Justin Nicolino keeps on rolling. His start this week was his eighth consecutive outing of five-or-more innings. His 109.1 innings this year are tied with Anthony DeSclafani for first on the team, while his WHIP is tied for first among starters. His six strikeouts against Fort Wayne on the 17th gave him 107 total punchouts on the year, which moved him into the team lead. I have mentioned before that Nicolino’s ceiling is obviously below that of Sanchez and Syndergaard, but his performance this season has proven that his floor is easily the highest, as he’s become the most durable and reliable of the trio.

7. RHP Danny Barnes (DUN): 0-0, 3 SV, 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

I stretched the list to seven this week solely so I could include Danny Barnes. The Princeton grad (yes, the same Princeton that Carlton Banks attended on The Fresh Prince of Bel Air) has been a dominant reliever since the Blue Jays made him a 35th round pick in the 2010 draft. He transitioned into the closer role for Dunedin this year, and has excelled to the tune of a 1.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 11.02 K/9 in his 49 innings. Barnes made four appearances this week, in which he didn’t allow a run and earned three saves. His 32 saves on the year are first in the Florida State League by a mile, as the second place reliever, Chris Rearick of the Tampa organization, has just 20. As a four year college senior he’s always been a bit old for the level he’s pitched at, but Barnes absolutely has a middle relief or setup-type ceiling.

Honorable mention: Javier Avendano (VAN), OF Kevin Pillar (DUN)

1. C Travis d’Arnaud (LAS): 25 AB, .360/.385/.800 (1.185 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 1/4 BB/K

March 17, 2012; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Travis d'Arnaud (15) catches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

We’ve honestly reached the point where I’m a little bored to rank d’Arnaud as the hottest prospect in the system, because over the past two months it’s become a bit redundant. He is absolutely killing it right now, and only two things can save Pacific Coast League pitching: an injury or a promotion. I’m hoping for the latter. He finished off the week with back to back 0-for-4’s, but his season line is still an otherworldly .335/.385/.602. When you look at those numbers, keep in mind he’s a catcher who has played in 60 of Las Vegas’ 70 games this year, very few of which have been DH appearances. I spent three weeks in Las Vegas / Nevada during the spring of 2011, and that heat can be brutal. I’m truly amazed he has played this well, and the Blue Jays are running out of excuses to hold back his promotion.

2. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

John Stilson earned a promotion to Double-A this week, and for a while I was wondering why Sean Nolin didn’t get the call. He had yet another dominating start this week, shutting down Clearwater for 6 innings, with the only run he allowed coming on a solo home run. He’s second in the Florida State League in ERA and WHIP, and third in strikeouts –- a step or two ahead of the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole, in all categories. The reason behind the lack of promotion appears to be an injury, as on June 17th Nolin was placed on the minor league disabled list, retroactive to June 15th. I haven’t been able to find any details on the injury, but here’s hoping it’s nothing major and he’ll be able to get back on the mound quickly following the All Star break.

3. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 27 AB, .407/.429/.556 (.985 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, 1/2 BB/K

Hechavarria had hits in each of his six games this week –- including three multi hit efforts –- extending his current hitting streak to 10 games. Without a doubt the PCL and Cashman Field are helping, but it would be foolish to say improvements to his swing haven’t played a part in the offensive surge. Between this year and last, Hechavarria has played 89 games for Las Vegas. He’s hit 348 in those games. Sample size is no longer at play here. Interestingly, the Blue Jays have had Hechavarria play some second base, with journeyman infielder Jonathan Diaz covering shortstop. One has to wonder if the team is preparing for life without Kelly Johnson, and if so, we could see the Cuban shortstop in Toronto as early as next month.

4. C Carlos Perez (LAN): 21 AB, .286/.423/.429 (.852 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 5/2 BB/K

The Carlos Perez that Blue Jays fans came to love in 2010 has finally resurfaced. After a down year across the board with Lansing in 2011, Perez has come on strong in his second go-around of the Midwest League. This week’s hot performance boosted his season line to .271/.353/.433 (.787 OPS), with a very Carlos Perez-like walk rate of 10.9%. Despite failing to receiving a nod for the All Star game, it could be argued he has been Lansing’s best hitter this season after Chris Hawkins has failed to live up to expectations. Perez could be in line for a second half promotion to High-A Dunedin, though it’s possible the team likes how he is working with the talented Lansing staff and will hold him back until they’re ready to move up. Regardless, it’s great to see the real Carlos Perez back swinging the bat.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 0-0, 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 9 K

Nicolino is the first of the four Lansing piggybackers to make two starts in a week, as after making a 4 inning appearance ahead of Aaron Sanchez on June 11th, he received his first five inning start on June 16th against Great Lakes. He wasn’t his best on the 11th, as despite striking out a season-high six and allowing no runs, he walked a season-high four batters. Things were normalized a bit in his second game of the week, as he walked only one while striking out three. Nicolino has been a huge part of Lansing’s first half success, as after a victory on Sunday afternoon, the team moved to 47-22, 9.5 games ahead of the second place team in the Eastern Division. The Lugnuts are now guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. Whether or not Nicolino will be around to pitch in the postseason is a different story.

Honorable mention: Moises Sierra (LAS), Anthony Gose (LAS), Noah Syndergaard (LAN), Anthony DeSclafani (LAN)

1. 3B Kevin Ahrens (DUN): 17 AB, .471/.526/.882 (1.408 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 2/5 BB/K

Kevin Ahrens is set to enter his fifth season with the Blue Jays. The native of Houston, Tx., was a first round draft pick in 2007 and is hoping to prove the skeptics wrong by earning a place at third base for the Jays this year. (Arun Srinivasan/Toronto Observer)

I had a small glimmer of optimism with Ahrens after he performed fairly well in the Arizona Fall League last year. It’s predominantly a Double-A to Triple-A talent level, so I imagined his performance would create a Double-A assignment in 2012, especially given the lack of depth at that position. Instead, Toronto assigned him to Dunedin, where he’s opened the year for an astonishing four straight years. Now 23 years old, the door has all but closed on Ahrens’ major league future, but career-best weeks from former first round picks deserve mention. He has three home runs this season, all of which have come in the last eight days. This is Ahrens’ first placement on the Blue Jays prospect hot sheet –- and very likely his last –- but as someone who still fondly and naively remembers the Chipper Jones comparisons on draft day, it was nice to relish in his success, even if only for a couple of minutes.

2. C Travis d’Arnaud (LAS): 24 AB, .417/.440/.583 (1.023 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 1/7 BB/K

Travis d’Arnaud didn’t have a great week, which makes the 1000+ OPS that much more impressive. In six games, he totaled only two extra base hits and a single walk. Yet, thanks to 10 hits, his overall numbers look very good. The power numbers this season have, unsurprisingly, been otherworldly. His extra base hit percentage is up to 40% with an isolated power of 248. The only discernible problem with d’Arnaud’s year has been his plate discipline. While his 18.1% strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2009, it’s still a little high for a 23-year-old elite prospect in Triple-A. His 7.4% walk rate is in a similar boat, as while it’s in the average range, elite prospects should be better than average.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 1-0, 5.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Nolin has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2012 season. He had a solid professional debut with Lansing in 2011, but has taken his game to the next level this year. His latest impressive start on June 5th propelled his season record to 7-0, and Nolin has been a huge factor in Dunedin clinching the first half division title. With a 2.43 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through the first two-plus months of the season, one has to doubt he’s long for A-ball, as Nolin is quickly proving himself to be ready for the upper minors. With the Double-A Fisher Cats sitting dead last in the Eastern League, they could certainly use his talent.

4. 1B Mike McDade (NH): 22 AB, .273/.360/.545 (.905 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 3/3 BB/K

Big Mac has been the lone bright spot on an otherwise thin New Hampshire offense. With the preseason promotions of d’Arnaud, Gose, Hechavarria, Sierra, and Gomes, and the season ending injury of A.J. Jimenez, there are really no other noteworthy prospects in the starting nine. Opposing pitchers appear to have taken note, as with 27 walks through only 59 games –- including three base on balls this week –- he’s on pace to shatter his previous career high of 33 back in 2008. Teams can simply work around McDade, as no one else in the lineup can do any significant kind of damage to them. I’d really like to see him get a chance at Las Vegas with a lineup of top prospects, but until Toronto can sort out the David Cooper/Adam Lind/Vladimir Guerrero mess, McDade appears stuck in New Hampshire.

5. RHP Javier Avendano (LAN): 1-0, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

The Lansing long man snuck onto the second edition of the Blue Jays prospect hot sheet, and thanks to a thin group of performances from the system’s elite talent this week, he finds himself in the fifth spot again. Avendano appeared in three games and displayed some of his versatility, earning a win, a hold, and a save. He’s been a big strikeout guy this year, and his 11 strikeouts over six innings this week boosted his season total to 39 in 30.1 innings (11.57 K/9). With the Syndergaard/DeSclafani tandem often struggling to reach their seven or eight innings, Avendano has been a huge asset to the first place Lansing team this year.

Honorable mention: Marcus Knecht (DUN), Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS), Sean Ochinko (NH)

Wins/Losses: 32-27 | Streak: L3 | 3rd in PCL Pacific South division (6.0 GB)

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Reno Aces 8, Las Vegas 51s 1 – LP: Richmond (5-4, 5.84)

The 51s’ offense managed just six singles and the Aces scored seven unanswered runs as Las Vegas dropped their third consecutive game to Reno 8-1 on Tuesday night at Cashman Field.

Hitting:

Adeiny Hechavarria and Vladimir Guerrero hit back-to-back, one-out singles in the bottom of the first and both advanced into scoring position on a fielding error, but the 51s were only able to score the one run, on an Adam Lind groundout. After that, their only other opportunity to plate a run came with runners on first and second with two outs in the bottom of the fourth inning.

After joining the 51s over the weekend from Advanced-A Dunedin, Guerrero went 3-for-17 (.176) with one double (but only one strikeout) in his first four Triple-A games of the season, while Lind, is hitting .415 (17-for-41) in his last 10 games but has just one extra-base hit — a double back on May 30 — over that span.

Pitching:

51s starter Scott Richmond lasted just four innings, giving up six runs (five earned) on 10 hits with one walk and three strikeouts. Richmond had a tough time getting out of the first inning, as a pair of two-out singles around an Adam Lind fielding error led to an unearned run, and a wild pitch on a swinging strikeout loaded the bases to continue the frame. What ultimately hurt Richmond, though, was a four-run second, where the first five batters all reached base via three singles, a walk and a double. He retired three of his next four batters to end the inning, but the damage was already done.

Clint Everts, making his third appearance since being assigned to the 51s from Double-A New Hampshire on May 27, gave up one unearned run and allowed three hits in two innings. After a fielding error by 51s left fielder Ricardo Nanita led to the run in the fifth inning, Everts benefited from a great play by his catcher, Travis d’Arnaud, to throw out Reno second baseman Taylor Harbin trying to steal second base. Left-hander Bill Murphy mopped up the game’s final three innings, allowing just one run on one hit that scored on two ground outs in the top of the ninth.

Wins/Losses: 21-35 | Streak: L2 | 6th in EAS Eastern division (11.0 GB)

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Richmond Flying Squirrels 1, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 0 – LP: Pino (1-3, 3.28)

Starter Joel Carreno‘s strong outing wasn’t enough, as the Fisher Cats’ bats fell silent to hand them a 1-0 loss to the Richmond Flying Squirrels on Tuesday night at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium.

Hitting:

Just like Triple-A Las Vegas, all of New Hampshire’s hits were singles. Mike McDade and Brian Bocock each went 1-for-3 and drew a walk, though Bocock was caught stealing for the first time this season in the  bottom of the third. The Fisher Cats’ only scoring chance came in the first inning, when Ryan Goins and McDade roped back-to-back, two-out singles but catcher Sean Ochinko grounded into a force out.

After drawing a walk in the third and another in the fourth, New Hampshire didn’t have another baserunner until Bocock’s leadoff single in the bottom of the ninth, which was wasted after a foul bunt strikeout and a double play ended the game.

Pitching:

Carreno was handed the hard-luck loss despite pitching his best game of the season, where he scattered just two hits over a season-high seven innings. Unfortunately one of those hits was a two-out solo home run in the third inning, but apart from that, Carreno faced the minimum amount of batters. He did not issue a walk for the first time in five Double-A starts this season, and out of his six strikeouts, five were of the swinging variety. Right-hander Scott Gracey kept it a 1-0 game with two perfect innings of relief.

Wins/Losses: 39-19 | Streak: W4 | 1st in FSL North division (7.5 GM Lead)

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Dunedin Blue Jays 7, Palm Beach Cardinals 1 - WP: Nolin (7-0, 2.43)

After scoring four runs in the second inning, the D-Jays added three more in the sixth to take the opener of a four-game series against the Palm Beach Cardinals 7-1 on Tuesday night at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium.

Hitting:

DH/first baseman Gabe Jacobo continued to impress, going 2-for-4 in the leadoff spot with a two-run home run in the second inning to bring his season total to five. Kevin Nolan, Marcus Knecht, Kenen Bailli and Kevin Ahrens each hit a double, and the D-Jays finished 4-for-12 with runners in scoring position. Also, in addition to throwing out a baserunner, catcher Jack Murphy finished with three RBI on the night thanks to a sacrifice fly in the second and a two-run single in the sixth.

Pitching:

After giving up a leadoff home run to start the game, Dunedin starter Sean Nolin settled in, allowing just six hits and one walk in 5 2/3 shutout innings the rest of the way. After two singles opened the top the top of the fourth inning and eventually led to runners on the corners with two outs, Nolin was able to induce a fly out in foul territory to end the inning. He gave up back-to-back, two-out singles in the fifth and also got some help from reliever Dustin Antolin in the sixth when a runner on third was stranded, but it was still a great outing. The start earned Nolin his seventh win of the season and improved his record to 7-0.

Outside of the walk he issued after replacing Nolin in the sixth, Antolin earned his seventh hold of the season in lights-out fashion, tossing 2 1/3 scoreless innings without allowing a hit.

Making his first appearance of the season with Dunedin, right-hander Drew Permison induced three groundouts in a scoreless ninth inning. Permison, assigned to Dunedin just before the game, spent the bulk of last season closing games for the Vancouver Canadians before a late-season call-up to the Lansing Lugnuts.

Wins/Losses: 40-17 | Streak: W2 | 1st in MID Eastern division (9.5 GM Lead)

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Scheduled off-day

1. C Travis d’Arnaud (LAS): 20 AB, .500/.524/1.200 (1.724 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, 1/2 BB/K

March 17, 2012; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Travis d'Arnaud (15) catches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

When a prospect puts together an OPS over 1.000 for the week, he’s rolling. The Las Vegas hitters have even provided a few 1.200+ OPS weeks already this season, and unsurprisingly, they ranked extremely high on their respective hot sheets. Travis d’Arnaud must be laughing, because if those are hot weeks, he’s an inferno right now. The numbers he compiled over his five games this week are not simply bordering on insanity, they are insanity. Even though it’s only May, I’m confident in saying no other player in the Blue Jays system will have a better week than what d’Arnaud produced here. He had 10 hits in 20 at-bats, which would be impressive enough on its own, but 60% of those hits went for extra base hits – resulting in an absurd 1.200 slugging percentage. d’Arnaud had a solid April with a .778 OPS, but most people were expecting more from the systems premiere prospect in such a hitter friendly environment. Well, he’s delivered in May, as these numbers boosted his monthly total to .317/.368/.635 (1.003 OPS). With both JP Arencibia and Travis d’Arnaud cruising on offense in their respective leagues, the Blue Jays are in a very enviable position.

2. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 12 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 16 K

Nolin made the first prospect hot sheet of the season, but hasn’t appeared since. It hasn’t been because he’s pitched poorly, as he’s allowed more than three runs in only one of his nine starts this season. He simply hasn’t produced any dominant outings since his 11 strikeout performance on April 12th. Things were different this week, as Nolin made two starts and struck out eight in each of them, while walking a grand total of zero batters. Not only did he own the strikezone, but balls put in play were swallowed up by his defense, resulting in an impressive 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP for the week. The 22 year old Nolin has completely overmatched the Florida State League thus far, and a promotion to New Hampshire may be on the horizon.

3. RHP Aaron Sanchez (LAN): 1-0, 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K

I recently wrote an article here at Jays Journal that detailed how far Sanchez has come since being selected in the Supplemental 1st round of the 2010 draft, and he continued his successful season with two more dominant appearances this week. The two games saw Sanchez throw a total of eight innings, in which he allowed only five base runners while striking out 10. Strikeouts have always been his calling card, but his ability to induce weak contact this season has been perhaps his most impressive feat. His groundout to flyout ratio has soared to 3.08 for the season, and is a testament to just how good the movement on his fastball is.

4. RHP Noah Syndergaard / Anthony DeSclafani (LAN): 1-0, 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

Unlike Sanchez and Nicolino, this duo has had its fair share of ups and downs. From late April through mid May, Syndergaard allowed nine runs (six earned) in 15.2 innings, while DeSclafani gave up another nine runs (seven earned). On May 17th, however, the two pitched the best they have since early April, combining to allow only one earned run in eight total innings, while striking out 11 batters for good measure. One interesting trend with this pairing is their starter/reliever splits:

Syndergaard (as starter): 16 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 21 K
Syndergaard (as reliever): 12.2 IP, 15 H, 5 ER, 8 BB, 17 K
DeSclafani (as starter): 14 IP, 25 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 9 K
DeSclafani (as reliever): 17 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 21 K

Throughout his entire (albeit brief) minor league career, Syndergaard has pitched almost exclusively as a starter, while the recently drafted DeSclafani served as the closer for the University of Florida. While the sample size is still small, it’s noteworthy how drastically different they have each performed in the roles. Even when the reliever knows in advance he’ll be pitching in the ballgame, the warmup is vastly different, and it’s possible a pitcher like Syndergaard needs the full pregame routine to loosen up his arm. For DeSclafani, a former reliever, he may be having a difficult time adjusting to slowly preparing himself, as opposed to simply relying upon adrenaline and quickly getting ready for an in-progress game. It will definitely be something to watch, at least as long as Lansing utilizes the piggyback approach.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 8 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Nicolino didn’t pitch at his best this week, which speaks volumes about how good he’s been not only this year (1.16 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), but his entire career (1.27 ERA, 0.89 WHIP). It’s actually amazing how little attention he’s drawn this season. The tandem of Nicolino and Aaron Sanchez threw three innings a piece a total of five times before making the jump to four inning appearances. Their May 20th game was their fourth appearance at that length, which, if the Blue Jays keep their development linear, would indicate the two will make only one more game together before their separation. With five inning starts for the rest of the season, the pitchers would be on pace for season totals of 120-125 innings, which is roughly where General Manager Alex Anthopolous indicated he’d like to see them finish.

Honorable mention: Casey Lawrence (NH)

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