In addition to the Blue Jays content, there are a few other prospects to keep an eye on with the Rafters. Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin of the Nationals are legitimate top prospects, as are Matt Davidson of the Diamondbacks and Trayce Thompson of the White Sox. However, as this is a Blue Jays website, the focus will rightfully be on Toronto’s contributions. Below is a breakdown of the seven players Toronto has chosen to send, as well as some expectations of the role they make play and the success they may or may not have.

RHP Deck McGuire (Double-A)

5-15, 144.0 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 62 BB, 97 K, 5.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.06 K/9

Deck McGuire was Toronto’s 1st round pick in the 2010 draft (RENE JOHNSTON/TORONTO STAR)

Deck McGuire is both the least and most surprising amongst the Blue Jays contributions to the Arizona Fall League. On one hand, he had, from beginning to end, arguably the worst season of any pitcher in the minor league system this year. With that in mind, sending him to get some extra work in seems like a good opportunity to enter the offseason in a positive frame of mind. On the other hand, the Arizona Fall League is probably the least pitcher friendly environment in all of North American baseball. Not only is it played at high altitude in the southwestern US, but teams often send top hitting prospects on the cusp of a major league promotion there as a final dress rehearsal. Ergo, while sending McGuire to get extra work may seem like a good idea, the possibility of him getting absolutely shelled and taking a step backwards confidence-wise is very real. His flyball-heavy tendencies thus far in his minor league career don’t help my concerns either.

RHP John Stilson (High-A, Double-A)

5-4, 104.1 IP, 110 H, 45 ER, 8 HR, 42 BB, 91 K, 3.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.85 K/9

Admittedly, seeing John Stilson assigned to the Salt River Rafters was a bit of a shock for me. He is coming off a fairly heavy workload in his first professional season, particularly considering the question marks surrounding a shoulder injury at the end of his college career. What this assignment tells me is that the Blue Jays plan to move forward with the relief role for Stilly, which, as I’ve voiced a number of times, I feel is the right course of action. In terms of both quality of stuff and career longevity, the bullpen is the logical choice. We won’t know for sure until games get underway and box scores start to pile up, but the team may be preparing him for a mid-2013 debut as a late inning fireman.

RHP Sam Dyson (High-A, Double-A)

4-2, 74.0 IP, 73 H, 25 ER, 3 HR, 20 BB, 38 K, 3.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.62 K/9

The Sam Dyson selection makes a whole lot of sense. He has a splash of major league experience (2 games), and very likely will be counted on to contribute at some point during the 2013 season. Those 74 innings were also the first of his career thanks to some injury difficulties in previous years, so any added work would have to be looked upon as a bonus for the 24 year old. Additionally, Dyson is not the type of arm you worry about in the Arizona Fall League for two reasons. First, his ceiling is, at best, a 7th or 8th inning reliever, and more likely the former. While you always care about the confidence level of a prospect, you’re more willing to take risks with the bullpen guy than the future top of the rotation starter. The second reason is his groundball tendencies, as he had a 3.09 GO/AO ratio between Dunedin and New Hampshire last season. Heavy sinkers are the best way to combat the thin air environment.

RHP Ryan Tepera (High-A, Double-A)

8-6, 95.1 IP, 109 H, 58 ER, 7 HR, 49 BB, 71 K, 5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 6.70 K/9

With the Blue Jays required to send four pitchers to the Fall League, chances were high at least one of them was going to be an org guy. Ryan Tepera falls into that category this year. It’s nothing new, as last season the Blue Jays sent Wes Etheridge as their fourth pitcher, and in 2010, it was Matt Daly. Tepera was a 19th round pick by the Blue Jays back in 2009, and in his four years the highest level he has reached was Double-A here in 2012. The results have been subpar, and now 25, a major league future is beyond doubtful. Tepera’s role in the organization is to collect innings where needed and protect the valuable young arms from excessive workloads. He could be in a similar position with the Rafters as well.

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A, Double-A)

489 AB, .249/.321/.399 (.719 OPS), 29 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 24 SB, 37/100 BB/K

Jake Marisnick is the only true elite talent the Blue Jays have chosen to send to Arizona this fall, and he likely has redemption on his mind after a subpar second half performance. After a promotion to Double-A, Marisnick’s numbers fell across the board. His contact rate sunk; as did his walk rate and power. The only positive from his second half numbers was a spike in stolen base numbers, but his bat skills are far more important to me than his athleticism at this point in his development. As I’ve mentioned, high elevation and low quality pitchers make the Arizona Fall League an ideal environment for hitters, and with Marisnick’s inherent talent, the 21 year old should be poised for a smashing performance. Anything less could be considered a serious disappointment.

SS Ryan Goins (Double-A)

546 AB, .289/.342/.403 (.745 OPS), 33 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 47/78 BB/K

With nine infielders on the roster, Ryan Goins is unlikely to see a ton of playing time. I expect Chris Owings will be the primary starter at shortstop for the Rafters, but Goins’ defensive versatility should allow him to squeak in some games at second base as well. The 24 year old doesn’t have the flashy tools, but he has a sound approach at the plate and can hold his own in the field. He’s not going to be a star and is unlikely to even be a steady regular, but Goins is the type of guy who would fit in extremely well as the 25th man on the roster for somebody. These at-bats could prove valuable, as with four years of minor league service under his belt as a former college draft pick, Ryan Goins should be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

OF Kevin Pillar (Single-A, High-A)

499 AB, .323/.374/.439 (.813 OPS), 28 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 91 RBI, 51 SB, 40/70 BB/K

Kevin Pillar is the only player on the list who didn’t play in Double-A this season, but at 23 years old, he’s in a similar age bracket to most. He got off to a great start with Lansing, hitting .322 with an .841 OPS in 86 games. That earned him a promotion to Dunedin, and while he hit .323 there, the secondary numbers dropped off dramatically. Pillar’s walk rate dropped from 9.3% to 2.8%, and his isolated power dropped 37 points as well. All told, his OPS slipped to .754 in 42 games. While the Arizona Fall League is thin on pitching prospects, there are plenty of crafty minor league veterans who could take advantage of Pillar’s underdeveloped game. As such, he’s been classified as a “taxi squad” roster player, meaning he can only be active on Wednesdays and Saturdays. The Blue Jays appear to be setting Pillar up for more of a learning experience than a test.

I wouldn’t classify the list as underwhelming, but it’s missing a certain catcher whom I had both hoped and expected to see assigned. Travis d’Arnaud tore up his knee in late June, and at the time it was suggested he was looking at roughly an eight week recovery. That would have placed him at a late August or early September return, which isn’t particularly ideal for a prospect. The Triple-A season would be coming to a close, and it would be cruel to expect d’Arnaud to make his major league debut coming off a knee injury with no rehab assignment.

I can’t remember if it was ever said by General Manager Alex Anthopolous, but at the time it was widely speculated that d’Arnaud would finish his season in the Arizona Fall League, allowing him to recover some lost at-bats and better prepare himself for a possible starting assignment next spring. The fact he was held off the roster suggests two possible scenarios, neither of which makes me feel particularly good.

The first is that the knee injury has taken longer to recover from than initially expected. That would be extremely bad, as catchers are required to squat for brutally long periods of time every day, which is hard on the knees to say the least. It would also be yet another knock against d’Arnaud in the injury prone department, as in just the last few years he’s dealt with recurring back issues as well as a torn thumb ligament. Some level of durability is expected of catchers, and if this knee problem is lingering, one would have to seriously question d’Arnaud’s long term future behind the plate.

The second scenario is less worrisome but just as frustrating. By holding a healthy d’Arnaud out of the Arizona Fall League, the team would be all but handing the starting catcher job to J.P. Arencibia. While once could argue that d’Arnaud has done nothing at the major league level and shouldn’t simply be handed the starting job, one could also point out that Arencibia has a .272 on-base percentage in 229 career games. I was hoping to see a fair competition in spring training for the starting job, but if this is the accurate scenario, we appear headed for another Travis Snider / Eric Thames situation: a “competition” that is decided before it even starts.

Las Vegas 51s (more…)

June 6, 2010; Miami, FL, USA; Texas A

On August 25th, 2011, I wrote an article entitled “Introducing John Stilson, Pick #108 in the 2011 Draft“. I still don’t believe you’ll find one article out there that will tell you any more than that about the man that seems to be getting very close to being “next in line” for a Jays promotion. In fact, if you simply type “John Stilson” into Google, you don’t see his Texas A&M page, his draft page from MLB.com, or a Baseball America article about him. You get the article linked above! Therefore, I encourage you to read through it and check out all linked articles within that piece if you’re interested in getting to know this great Jays prospect as much as possible.

I came away very impressed with what the Jays got with that pick and was ecstatic that they’d take that big a risk to get an upside arm (due to the injury risk). Late in that article, I stated the following:

“Between him and Sam Dyson, the Jays will have some fast-moving pen prospects moving through the system, even if both carry health questions with them.” (more…)

Dyson, a 2010 4th round pick missed all of the 2011 season before climbing from A-ball all the way to Toronto in 2012 (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The move was a shock to me for a number of reasons. First and foremost, there’s a guy in Triple-A named Chad Beck who has done everything the organization has asked of him this year, and has pitched very effectively while doing so. Beck has served as the 51s closer, racking up 9 saves alongside an impressive 1.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The strikeout rate is below average at only 4.55 K/9, but he has made up for it with an above average groundout to flyout ratio of 1.37. Keep in mind, he’s also pitching in the Pacific Coast League -– namely Las Vegas –- where many pitchers see their careers crash and burn. Beck has also pitched in three games for Toronto this year, most notably the June 11th game against Washington in which he stepped into the game after Brandon Morrow managed only nine pitches. He had spent all season making one inning appearances, but with the Blue Jays in serious trouble, he stepped up and gave the team a greatly needed 3.2 innings. Did I mention he had also pitched an inning the night before? As a thank you, the Blue Jays demoted him immediately after the game. They could have righted a wrong last night, but chose not to.

The second and third reasons the promotion of Dyson surprised me are that he’s only in his first professional season, and while he’s reached Double-A, the numbers don’t suggest he’s ready to make the jump to Toronto. Dyson made six starts with High-A Dunedin in April and early May, pitching to a 4.08 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He then received a promotion to Double-A New Hampshire, where he’s pitched exclusively as a reliever. In 15 appearances, he has a much better 0.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but his strikeout rate has actually worsened, dropping from 5.02 to 3.00 K/9. He slightly makes up for the lack of strikeouts with good control (2.22 BB/9) and a crazy strong groundball rate (3.34 GO/AO), but while both of those traits are excellent to have, teams typically want strikeout pitchers in the bullpen in order to minimize the advancement of inherited base runners.

Dyson relies heavily upon his fastball, which he throws in the low to mid 90’s, with some reports suggesting he’s touched as high as 98 mph this year. I’m certainly skeptical of such readings, and with Dyson, movement is just as, if not more important than shear velocity, as fastballs tend to flatten out when thrown that hard. When pitching effectively, he buries the sinker down in the zone, which is the main reason for the exceptional groundball rate I mentioned above. Opposing hitters have a horrible time trying to generate loft on the pitch, resulting in only one home run allowed in over 52 innings this season. Dyson throws a changeup and a pair of breaking balls in his curveball and slider, but all are well behind his fastball in terms of both development and usage. Now that he’s working exclusively in a relief setting, he’s likely to cut down the repertoire from four pitches to two or three, with the slider the most likely to go. Durability is Dyson’s biggest weakness, as both his college and professional careers have been littered with shoulder and elbow injuries, which likely necessitated the move to the bullpen.

The team, namely John Farrell, mentioned the Blue Jays were hoping to call up a player who could stabilize the seventh inning ahead of Oliver and Janssen, but I honestly don’t see how Dyson is a better option than Jason Frasor or Luis Perez at this point. His complete lack of the ability to strike batters out is a huge detriment regardless of how many groundballs he generates, because as I mentioned, many late game scenarios are much cleaner when strikeouts are involved. With that being said, the Blue Jays have shown to have one of the best infield defenses in baseball, so perhaps the team can catch lightning in a bottle with the sinkerballer Sam Dyson. Given the performance of the bullpen this year, they could sure use it.

 Wins/Losses: 1-4 | Streak: L2 | T-3rd in PCL Pacific South division (2.0 GB)

Fresno Grizzlies 9, Las Vegas 51s 3 (LP: Richmond, 0-1)

The 51s managed to take a 2-0 lead in the third inning, but nine unanswered Fresno runs ultimately doomed them as they fell to the Grizzlies 9-3 on Monday night.

Hitting:

Despite every single 51s player outside of Travis d’Arnaud managing at least one hit, the 51s’ offense went just 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and managed only three extra-base hits. Moises Sierra cranked his second home run of the season, a solo home run in the ninth, Travis Snider roped a two-run double and both David Cooper and Adeiny Hechavarria each had multi-hit games. Hechavarria also stole his first base of the year early in the game.

Pitching:

After lasting just one inning in his first start, 51s starter Scott Richmond didn’t fare to well at all in this contest, allowing seven earned runs on nine hits in five innings of work. He issued one walk, struck out three, hit a batter and also gave up a home run, a grand slam to Fresno shortstop Joaquin Arias in the fifth inning.

Fresno was able to tack on a few more runs later in the game, as 51s reliever Andrew Carpenter gave up two earned runs on a pair of solo homers with one strikeout in three innings of work, while right-hander Jerry Gil tossed a scoreless ninth with a pair of strikeouts.

Wins/Losses: 2-2 | Streak: L2 | 2nd in EAS Eastern division (1.5 GB)

Reading Phillies 5, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 2 (LP: Cecil, 0-1)

Brett Cecil made his first Double-A start since being optioned to the minors, but Reading just notched too many hits as the Fisher Cats dropped the opener of a three-game set 5-2 on Monday night.

Hitting:

First baseman Mike McDade continued his solid start to the year with a 2-for-4 showing, but center fielder Justin Jackson stole the show with a 3-for-4 night that included his first double and triple of the season. He finished a home run short of the cycle but managed one RBI on the night, and brought his average on the season up to .417. Speedy left fielder Brad McElroy also went 2-for-4 hitting ninth and stole his first bag of the year, while second baseman Jonathan Diaz stole his fourth and fifth bases of the season by advancing to third.

Pitching:

Making his first Double-A start in years, Cecil gave up three runs in the first three innings before giving up a two-run homer in the sixth inning. Cecil finished the night having allowed five runs (four earned) on 11 hits in 6 2/3 innings, but did not walk a batter and racked up seven strikeouts. Fellow left-hander Evan Crawford kept New Hampshire in the game with 1 1/3 innings of scoreless relief, giving up one hit.

Wins/Losses: 3-1 | Streak: W1 | 1st in FSL North division (0.0 GB)

Dunedin Blue Jays 8, Daytona Cubs 7 (WP: Dyson, 1-0 | S: Barnes, 2)

After taking a commanding 6-0 lead by the middle of the second inning, the D-Jays managed to hold off a late Daytona rally and escape with the 8-7 win on Monday night.

Hitting:

The top of Dunedin’s order did it all in this one, led by a 2-for-4, 4 RBI night by cleanup hitter Marcus Knecht. Leadoff hitter Jake Marisnick went 2-for-5 with a double, a walk and a stolen base, while two-hitter Jonathan Jones went 3-for-5 with two RBI. Right fielder Michael Crouse was held hitless in four at-bats, but managed to draw a walk and steal second base.

Pitching:

Making his first professional start since being drafted in 2010 and after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Dunedin starter Sam Dyson got the win after allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits in six strong innings. He did not issue a walk while notching four strikeouts. He tossed a wild pitch and hit a batter, but his only mistake was the three-run home run that he allowed in the third inning.

Reliever Dustin Antolin ran into some trouble in the seventh, giving up three earned runs on three hits and a walk in just 2/3 of the frame, but Boomer Potts limited the damage and combined with Dayton Marze and Danny Barnes to toss 2 1/3 scoreless innings with Dunedin clinging to a one-run lead.

Wins/Losses: 4-0 | Streak: W4 | 1st in MID Eastern division (0.0 GB)

Lansing Lugnuts 8, Dayton Dragons 0 (WP: Sanchez, 1-0)

Thanks to strong pitching once again, the Lugnuts were able to stay undefeated and shut out the Dayton Dragons 8-0 on Monday night.

Hitting:

Every batter in the Lansing lineup managed to record a base hit, as the Lugnuts’ 14-hit attack included three home runs and three doubles. Making his season debut after spending 2011 with the Lugnuts, first baseman K.C. Hobson went 3-for-5 batting cleanup with a double and three RBI, while Kenny Wilson, Chris Hawkins and Kevin Patterson all hit solo home runs. Right fielder Kevin Pillar went 2-for-5 with a double and a RBI.

Pitching:

Making their first outings of the year, pitchers Justin Nicolino and Aaron Sanchez looked every bit like the top prospects that they are. Nicolino started the game, throwing three shutout innings with five strikeouts and without allowing a single hit or walk, while Sanchez earned the win after also tossing three shutout frames but allowing one hit and a pair of walks. Relievers Blake McFarland and Brandon Berl combined to throw three scoreless innings and close out the lopsided contest.

-JM

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Out of the Top 50 Jays Prospects: Yan Gomes

Catcher / 23 years old / 6’1″ 215 lbs

Image courtesy of Bryan Green via Flickr

Born: July 19, 1987 in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Bats: Right   Throws: Right

High School: Miami Southridge H.S. (Miami, FL)

College: Barry University

Drafted By: The Jays in the 10^th round (310th overall) of the 2009 draft

Quick Facts:

• Majored in psychology
• Played two years at the University of Tennessee before transferring to Barry
• 2007 Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American and All-SEC selection
• Started 13 games at catcher with Tennessee in 2007 when filling in for current Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia (more…)

First, kudos to Marcum who brought the Jays to within 9 games of both the wild card and the AL East lead. Second, congrats to Anthopolous who continues to get the job done in an extremely encouraging manner.

Here’s a rundown of the last minute signings completed by Alex and the Jays:

1st rounder Deck McGuire, $2 million ($209,000 million over MLB’s recommended slot amount)

I do not make any pretention of believing Deck McGuire will be anything greater than a great #3 starter with a slight possibility of being a number 2 if everything falls into place and his experience makes him better. His stuff just doesn’t play that highly. However, his floor is high, meaning that the Jays are pretty well assured of getting a #4 starter at a minimum, which makes the cost of signing him inevitably higher.

2nd rounder Griffin Murphy, $800,000

This was a crucial signing for the Jays as Griffin was the top LHP they got in this draft class and a real talent who has top of the rotation potential. He’s already a blogger-prospect favorite for the Jays writers and will surely make BA’s top 30 Jays prospect list in 2011.

4th rounder Sam Dyson, $600,000

The 5th RHP to be drafted by the Jays in the top 4 rounds, Sam gets a nice bonus for a 4th rounder but will have to fight off a bunch of talented guys to get any sort of shot at being a starter in The Show for the Jays. He’s also the smallest of the 5 RHP drafted in the first 4 rounds, making him the immediate underdog. (more…)