In addition to the Blue Jays content, there are a few other prospects to keep an eye on with the Rafters. Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin of the Nationals are legitimate top prospects, as are Matt Davidson of the Diamondbacks and Trayce Thompson of the White Sox. However, as this is a Blue Jays website, the focus will rightfully be on Toronto’s contributions. Below is a breakdown of the seven players Toronto has chosen to send, as well as some expectations of the role they make play and the success they may or may not have.

RHP Deck McGuire (Double-A)

5-15, 144.0 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 62 BB, 97 K, 5.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.06 K/9

Deck McGuire was Toronto’s 1st round pick in the 2010 draft (RENE JOHNSTON/TORONTO STAR)

Deck McGuire is both the least and most surprising amongst the Blue Jays contributions to the Arizona Fall League. On one hand, he had, from beginning to end, arguably the worst season of any pitcher in the minor league system this year. With that in mind, sending him to get some extra work in seems like a good opportunity to enter the offseason in a positive frame of mind. On the other hand, the Arizona Fall League is probably the least pitcher friendly environment in all of North American baseball. Not only is it played at high altitude in the southwestern US, but teams often send top hitting prospects on the cusp of a major league promotion there as a final dress rehearsal. Ergo, while sending McGuire to get extra work may seem like a good idea, the possibility of him getting absolutely shelled and taking a step backwards confidence-wise is very real. His flyball-heavy tendencies thus far in his minor league career don’t help my concerns either.

RHP John Stilson (High-A, Double-A)

5-4, 104.1 IP, 110 H, 45 ER, 8 HR, 42 BB, 91 K, 3.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.85 K/9

Admittedly, seeing John Stilson assigned to the Salt River Rafters was a bit of a shock for me. He is coming off a fairly heavy workload in his first professional season, particularly considering the question marks surrounding a shoulder injury at the end of his college career. What this assignment tells me is that the Blue Jays plan to move forward with the relief role for Stilly, which, as I’ve voiced a number of times, I feel is the right course of action. In terms of both quality of stuff and career longevity, the bullpen is the logical choice. We won’t know for sure until games get underway and box scores start to pile up, but the team may be preparing him for a mid-2013 debut as a late inning fireman.

RHP Sam Dyson (High-A, Double-A)

4-2, 74.0 IP, 73 H, 25 ER, 3 HR, 20 BB, 38 K, 3.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.62 K/9

The Sam Dyson selection makes a whole lot of sense. He has a splash of major league experience (2 games), and very likely will be counted on to contribute at some point during the 2013 season. Those 74 innings were also the first of his career thanks to some injury difficulties in previous years, so any added work would have to be looked upon as a bonus for the 24 year old. Additionally, Dyson is not the type of arm you worry about in the Arizona Fall League for two reasons. First, his ceiling is, at best, a 7th or 8th inning reliever, and more likely the former. While you always care about the confidence level of a prospect, you’re more willing to take risks with the bullpen guy than the future top of the rotation starter. The second reason is his groundball tendencies, as he had a 3.09 GO/AO ratio between Dunedin and New Hampshire last season. Heavy sinkers are the best way to combat the thin air environment.

RHP Ryan Tepera (High-A, Double-A)

8-6, 95.1 IP, 109 H, 58 ER, 7 HR, 49 BB, 71 K, 5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 6.70 K/9

With the Blue Jays required to send four pitchers to the Fall League, chances were high at least one of them was going to be an org guy. Ryan Tepera falls into that category this year. It’s nothing new, as last season the Blue Jays sent Wes Etheridge as their fourth pitcher, and in 2010, it was Matt Daly. Tepera was a 19th round pick by the Blue Jays back in 2009, and in his four years the highest level he has reached was Double-A here in 2012. The results have been subpar, and now 25, a major league future is beyond doubtful. Tepera’s role in the organization is to collect innings where needed and protect the valuable young arms from excessive workloads. He could be in a similar position with the Rafters as well.

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A, Double-A)

489 AB, .249/.321/.399 (.719 OPS), 29 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 24 SB, 37/100 BB/K

Jake Marisnick is the only true elite talent the Blue Jays have chosen to send to Arizona this fall, and he likely has redemption on his mind after a subpar second half performance. After a promotion to Double-A, Marisnick’s numbers fell across the board. His contact rate sunk; as did his walk rate and power. The only positive from his second half numbers was a spike in stolen base numbers, but his bat skills are far more important to me than his athleticism at this point in his development. As I’ve mentioned, high elevation and low quality pitchers make the Arizona Fall League an ideal environment for hitters, and with Marisnick’s inherent talent, the 21 year old should be poised for a smashing performance. Anything less could be considered a serious disappointment.

SS Ryan Goins (Double-A)

546 AB, .289/.342/.403 (.745 OPS), 33 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 47/78 BB/K

With nine infielders on the roster, Ryan Goins is unlikely to see a ton of playing time. I expect Chris Owings will be the primary starter at shortstop for the Rafters, but Goins’ defensive versatility should allow him to squeak in some games at second base as well. The 24 year old doesn’t have the flashy tools, but he has a sound approach at the plate and can hold his own in the field. He’s not going to be a star and is unlikely to even be a steady regular, but Goins is the type of guy who would fit in extremely well as the 25th man on the roster for somebody. These at-bats could prove valuable, as with four years of minor league service under his belt as a former college draft pick, Ryan Goins should be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

OF Kevin Pillar (Single-A, High-A)

499 AB, .323/.374/.439 (.813 OPS), 28 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 91 RBI, 51 SB, 40/70 BB/K

Kevin Pillar is the only player on the list who didn’t play in Double-A this season, but at 23 years old, he’s in a similar age bracket to most. He got off to a great start with Lansing, hitting .322 with an .841 OPS in 86 games. That earned him a promotion to Dunedin, and while he hit .323 there, the secondary numbers dropped off dramatically. Pillar’s walk rate dropped from 9.3% to 2.8%, and his isolated power dropped 37 points as well. All told, his OPS slipped to .754 in 42 games. While the Arizona Fall League is thin on pitching prospects, there are plenty of crafty minor league veterans who could take advantage of Pillar’s underdeveloped game. As such, he’s been classified as a “taxi squad” roster player, meaning he can only be active on Wednesdays and Saturdays. The Blue Jays appear to be setting Pillar up for more of a learning experience than a test.

I wouldn’t classify the list as underwhelming, but it’s missing a certain catcher whom I had both hoped and expected to see assigned. Travis d’Arnaud tore up his knee in late June, and at the time it was suggested he was looking at roughly an eight week recovery. That would have placed him at a late August or early September return, which isn’t particularly ideal for a prospect. The Triple-A season would be coming to a close, and it would be cruel to expect d’Arnaud to make his major league debut coming off a knee injury with no rehab assignment.

I can’t remember if it was ever said by General Manager Alex Anthopolous, but at the time it was widely speculated that d’Arnaud would finish his season in the Arizona Fall League, allowing him to recover some lost at-bats and better prepare himself for a possible starting assignment next spring. The fact he was held off the roster suggests two possible scenarios, neither of which makes me feel particularly good.

The first is that the knee injury has taken longer to recover from than initially expected. That would be extremely bad, as catchers are required to squat for brutally long periods of time every day, which is hard on the knees to say the least. It would also be yet another knock against d’Arnaud in the injury prone department, as in just the last few years he’s dealt with recurring back issues as well as a torn thumb ligament. Some level of durability is expected of catchers, and if this knee problem is lingering, one would have to seriously question d’Arnaud’s long term future behind the plate.

The second scenario is less worrisome but just as frustrating. By holding a healthy d’Arnaud out of the Arizona Fall League, the team would be all but handing the starting catcher job to J.P. Arencibia. While once could argue that d’Arnaud has done nothing at the major league level and shouldn’t simply be handed the starting job, one could also point out that Arencibia has a .272 on-base percentage in 229 career games. I was hoping to see a fair competition in spring training for the starting job, but if this is the accurate scenario, we appear headed for another Travis Snider / Eric Thames situation: a “competition” that is decided before it even starts.

Perez, 21, worked primarily as a bullpen catcher and only saw the field in one game as a defensive replacement. The Valencia, Venezuela native is looking to rebound from a down year with Lansing in 2011, where he dealt with colder weather while playing full-season ball for the first time.

After being claimed by the Pirates off waivers earlier in the offseason before being re-claimed by the Jays, Jeroloman caught the ceremonial first pitch in the Jays’ spring opener back on March 3. The 26-year-old appeared in six games for the Jays this spring, going 2-for-8 at the plate with one double and three RBI.

Bocock, 26, was a relatively unknown name heading into spring training but he made the most of his opportunity. Not considered a top prospect by any means, he went 6-for-13 at the plate in 11 games with one triple, one home run and five RBI. His best game would likely have been when he earned the start at third base in the road half of the Jays split-squad schedule back on March 7.

Nanita, 30, reported to spring training after a very busy 2011 campaign. The Dominican Republic native spent the first half of last season with Double-A New Hampshire before closing the year out with a strong 51-game showing with Triple-A Las Vegas and playing winter ball. This spring, Nanita appeared in 10 games and went 4-for-12 at the plate with two RBI.

Tepera, 24, spent the 2011 season as a member of the Dunedin Blue Jays starting rotation. He held his own in his first big league spring training this year, giving up three earned runs on five hits in seven and 2/3 innings of work.

Richmond, 32, tossed three scoreless innings in his two spring appearances this year. The right-hander returned from injury last season to throw 113 innings for Triple-A Las Vegas, managing a 7.33 ERA and 1.814 WHIP.

- JM

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#50: Ryan Dennis Tepera

image courtesy of blogs.chron.com

23 years old / 6’1″ 180 lbs

Born: November 3rd 1987 in Lake Jackson, Texas

Bats Right    Throws Right

High School Team: Brazoswood HS

College: Sam Huston State University

Drafted: by the Jays in the 19th rd, 580th overall, of the ’09 First-Year Player Draft

Wears: #12 for the Lansing Lugnuts in 2010 (more…)

Just imagine what that rotation would have looked like if Roy Halladay had stuck around…….ugh. Can you say first place?

The following are my “Top 20 Jays Minors Starting Pitchers” that are stepping up the ladder and are providing wave after wave of pitching for the Jays. I have discounted Rzepczinsky and Mills as we know what they have to offer. As we all know, you can never have too much pitching, and health issues can quickly unravel even the best season.

1 – Kyle Drabek, 23 years old (this month), AA New Hampshire, 6’1″ 190 lbs, RHP (#1-3, 2011)

• 12-9/ 2.92 ERA/ 142 IP/ 110 hits allowed/ 54 walks/ 110 Ks/ .213 average against
• There is no doubt that Kyle may very well be one of the most highly touted Jays SP prospects to bless our system in quite a long time. Others who came up the ranks, such as Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter, had a rougher time getting established. Kyle has the potential to be a true #2 pitcher, with the chance of being a #1. He has swing and miss stuff that drops off and tails away from hitters. RHB are hitting .198 against him, showing just how dominant he is against them, while lefties are only hitting a lowly .228 – not too shabby. There’s a reason Drabek was untouchable for a long time in the Doc Halladay deal, he’s a top fo the rotation starter that will be ready to take that role on full time -and for a full season innings wise – in 2011.

2 – Zach Stewart, 23 years old, AA New Hampshire, 6’2″ 205 lbs, RHP (#2-#4, 2011)

• 8-2/ 3.67 ERA/ 115.1 IP/ 108 hits allowed/ 48 walks/ 92 Ks/ .251 average against
• Sure, the Jays gave up Scott Rolen in acquiring Stewart, a player that could have helped bring the Jays to the playoffs this season, but the Jays will get many years of performance from Zach. He’s getting better as he gains confidence after being swithed from a RP to a SP, and now has a 2.54 ERA over his last 10 games with a lower .237 average against. He may need a little more seasoning than Kyle does in order to be successful in The Show, but he should be a more than adequate #3-4 once all is said and done.

3 – Asher Wojciechowski, 21 years old, SS Auburn DoubleDays, 6’4″ 235 lbs RHP (#2-3, 2012)

• 0-0/ 0.75 ERA/ 12 IP/ 6 hits allowed/ 4 walks/ 11 Ks/ .146 average against
• I’d love to slide Noah Syndergaard in here, but simply due to playing at a higher level and being more seasoned and closer to the majors, I went with Asher. He’s a big guy, strong, a workhorse that pounds the bottom of the zone on a great downward plane. He’s currently on the DL and will hopefully return before the season ends, but everything he showed after signing points to the fact that he could begin the 2011 season as high as HiA Dunedin, possibly AA New Hampshire. He’s more seasoned than the other 2 sandwich picks, and if Deck McGuire doesn’t sign, he will be the first 2010 drafted SP to make an impact with the Jays.

4 – Noah Syndergaard, 17 years old, GCL Blue Jays, 6’5″ 200 lbs, RHP (#2-3, 2013)

• 0-1/ 0.82 ERA/ 11 IP/ 7 hits allowed/ 4 walks/ 5 Ks/ .194 average against
• Noah is already big and strong and will only turn 18 at the end of August, leaving him plenty of time to add an inch or two and lots of strength. Of all of the pitchers taken in the 2010 draft, Noah and Aaron Sachez come with the highest ceilings and greatest tools. His fastball is dominant, a true power pitcher, and his curve ball and change ups are already showing above average potential. Although it may take him a little longer to get up the ladder, Noah should be ready for LoA Lansing at the very young age of 18 in 2011, making him a very impressive SP in the Jays system. (more…)

• The Jays made the Shane Opitz signing official on the 31st of July. He’s a huge signing for the Jays that was expected to be a tough signing to complete.
• OF Jacob Marisnick has been promoted to LoA Lansing. He’s struggling a bit to find himself over his first 30 ABs there, but it’s definitely where he belongs.
• OF Michael Crouse, a 2008 16th rd pick, was promoted more recently after hitting 4 HRs with a .333 average over 96 ABs in the GCL.
• Hitters in SS are hitting .185 against Casey Lawrence who is mowing down hitters with ease. He has a 2.11 ERA and 9 walks to his 38 Ks.
• Sean Ochinko, who was converted from a Catcher to a 3B, is hitting .421 over his last 10 games. He now has a season’s average of .310, 30 doubles, 7 HRs, 52 RBI, and a .363 OBP. He’s earned his keep this season and could get a look in HiA before long. (more…)

Brett Cecil has had plenty of time to prepare and watch the Phillies hit, so hopefully he took the right notes. I really do like how Cito set up the lineup yesterday, although I’m not sure it will last. Batting Lind and Hill lower in the lineup gives them more RBI opportunities and is definitely the change of pace both needed to get back on track and motivated.It’ll be interesting to see if he uses a similar lineup today. (more…)

Cit Gaston learned his lesson about how to use Brandon Morrow at the end of the game. He pulled him after exactly 100 pitches instead of leaving him in there to blow the game – as he had done during Brandon’s 2 latest starts when he allowed him to come out for the 7th and 8th respectively, and then lost the game as a result. With this start, Morrow finally has his ERA below 5.00 at 4.97 and he is definitely showing signs of maturity. His stuff is still very hard to hit and the fact that he can slot in this rotation as a #4 pitcher makes the Jays a contender for the foreseeable future. (more…)

The most interesting part of the New Hampshire game yesterday was the fact that Ronald Uviedo, recently acquired from the Pirates, was the starter! It was the first start of his 2010 season as he was expected by most to remain in the pen, where he has been more than effective. Ronald did well as a starter in 2009 with 21 GS for a season total of 110 IP, 89 Ks, 30 BB, and a 3.35 ERA. It’ll be interesting to see if he continues to start and how well he does as he stretches himself out. Yesterday’s game had his struggling with control, but also mostly unhittable as he walked 3 and allowed only 1 hit over 3 IP. He allowed 3 ERs in the game and was relieved by Bubbie Bzachero who threw 4 stellar shut out innings. Daniel Farquhar picked up his 14th save of the season in this one, a 5-4 win over Altoona. (more…)

Hot Jays Prospects:

1. 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir AAA - Hit for the cycle for the second time this season in AAA and is hitting .353 with 5 doubles, 1 triple, and 3 HRs over his last 10 games. He’s doing everything in his power to get the call to the bigs and could actually become some pretty decent trade bait. (more…)

Here is a review of the major events in the minors for the Jays on Saturday, 17th of April:

AAA Las Vegas – Postponed

AA New Hampshire – Won 13-8  vs Binghamton

• Bobby Bell had an outing to forget, lasting only 5 innings and giving up 7 ER through 8 hits and 2 walks, but he was picked up by a potent offensive display by the Fishercats hitters, as well as from 4 strong innings by Adrian Martin (1 ER over 2 IP) and Tim Collins (2 IP, no hits or walks, 4 Ks).
• Doubles and walks were the key to this game for New Hampshire, as they managed 11 walks and 6 doubles in the game. Eric Thames (.306)led the way with a 3 for 5 day including a double, while David Cooper (.270) went 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks.
• C Brian Jeroloman (.308) also had a good day at the plate with a 2 for 3 day and a walk. Both of his hits were doubles.

HiA Dunedin – Won 10-1 vs Brevard County

• SP Henderson Alvarez impressed once again by going 7 strong innings on Saturday, allowing 5 hits, no walks, 1 ER, and striking out 3. He has definitely made the most of his promotion to HiA and may very well get another promotion before the season is through if he keeps pitching like this. Hie ERa is now a meager 0.64 through 2 starts.
• Tyler Pastronicky must be feeling the heat from the Adeiny Hechevarria signing and his pending arrival in HiA because he turned it on big time Saturday. He went 4 for 4 with 2 doubles, 2 walks, and 4 runs scored. That bodes well for his chances of getting a look in AA.
• OF Dan Perales was the other offensive star for Dunedin as he went 4 for 5 with a triple and a HR.
• Meanwhile, Travis d’Arnaud continued to hit, going 2 for 5 with a double and now holds a .425 average.

LoA Lansing – Won 7-1 vs Bowling Green

• Ryan Tepera has an outstanding outing, as he lasted 7 innings, allowed only 3 hits and 1 walk, and struck out 4 for his first win of the season. His ERA now sits at 2.61 and he is making me look good for pointing him out as a prospect to watch in 2010.
• Youngster Kenny Wilson is starting to come out of his shell, going 2 for 4 with a triple and a SB. He now has a .257 average on the season but has been getting better the more he plays.
• 3B Mark Sobolweski (.303) was great once again, as he finished the day a perfect 3 for 3 with 2 doubles and a SB.
• 23 year old OF Bradley Glenn went 2 for 3 to bring his average up to a very impressive .366.