In addition to the Blue Jays content, there are a few other prospects to keep an eye on with the Rafters. Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin of the Nationals are legitimate top prospects, as are Matt Davidson of the Diamondbacks and Trayce Thompson of the White Sox. However, as this is a Blue Jays website, the focus will rightfully be on Toronto’s contributions. Below is a breakdown of the seven players Toronto has chosen to send, as well as some expectations of the role they make play and the success they may or may not have.

RHP Deck McGuire (Double-A)

5-15, 144.0 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 62 BB, 97 K, 5.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.06 K/9

Deck McGuire was Toronto’s 1st round pick in the 2010 draft (RENE JOHNSTON/TORONTO STAR)

Deck McGuire is both the least and most surprising amongst the Blue Jays contributions to the Arizona Fall League. On one hand, he had, from beginning to end, arguably the worst season of any pitcher in the minor league system this year. With that in mind, sending him to get some extra work in seems like a good opportunity to enter the offseason in a positive frame of mind. On the other hand, the Arizona Fall League is probably the least pitcher friendly environment in all of North American baseball. Not only is it played at high altitude in the southwestern US, but teams often send top hitting prospects on the cusp of a major league promotion there as a final dress rehearsal. Ergo, while sending McGuire to get extra work may seem like a good idea, the possibility of him getting absolutely shelled and taking a step backwards confidence-wise is very real. His flyball-heavy tendencies thus far in his minor league career don’t help my concerns either.

RHP John Stilson (High-A, Double-A)

5-4, 104.1 IP, 110 H, 45 ER, 8 HR, 42 BB, 91 K, 3.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.85 K/9

Admittedly, seeing John Stilson assigned to the Salt River Rafters was a bit of a shock for me. He is coming off a fairly heavy workload in his first professional season, particularly considering the question marks surrounding a shoulder injury at the end of his college career. What this assignment tells me is that the Blue Jays plan to move forward with the relief role for Stilly, which, as I’ve voiced a number of times, I feel is the right course of action. In terms of both quality of stuff and career longevity, the bullpen is the logical choice. We won’t know for sure until games get underway and box scores start to pile up, but the team may be preparing him for a mid-2013 debut as a late inning fireman.

RHP Sam Dyson (High-A, Double-A)

4-2, 74.0 IP, 73 H, 25 ER, 3 HR, 20 BB, 38 K, 3.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.62 K/9

The Sam Dyson selection makes a whole lot of sense. He has a splash of major league experience (2 games), and very likely will be counted on to contribute at some point during the 2013 season. Those 74 innings were also the first of his career thanks to some injury difficulties in previous years, so any added work would have to be looked upon as a bonus for the 24 year old. Additionally, Dyson is not the type of arm you worry about in the Arizona Fall League for two reasons. First, his ceiling is, at best, a 7th or 8th inning reliever, and more likely the former. While you always care about the confidence level of a prospect, you’re more willing to take risks with the bullpen guy than the future top of the rotation starter. The second reason is his groundball tendencies, as he had a 3.09 GO/AO ratio between Dunedin and New Hampshire last season. Heavy sinkers are the best way to combat the thin air environment.

RHP Ryan Tepera (High-A, Double-A)

8-6, 95.1 IP, 109 H, 58 ER, 7 HR, 49 BB, 71 K, 5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 6.70 K/9

With the Blue Jays required to send four pitchers to the Fall League, chances were high at least one of them was going to be an org guy. Ryan Tepera falls into that category this year. It’s nothing new, as last season the Blue Jays sent Wes Etheridge as their fourth pitcher, and in 2010, it was Matt Daly. Tepera was a 19th round pick by the Blue Jays back in 2009, and in his four years the highest level he has reached was Double-A here in 2012. The results have been subpar, and now 25, a major league future is beyond doubtful. Tepera’s role in the organization is to collect innings where needed and protect the valuable young arms from excessive workloads. He could be in a similar position with the Rafters as well.

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A, Double-A)

489 AB, .249/.321/.399 (.719 OPS), 29 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 24 SB, 37/100 BB/K

Jake Marisnick is the only true elite talent the Blue Jays have chosen to send to Arizona this fall, and he likely has redemption on his mind after a subpar second half performance. After a promotion to Double-A, Marisnick’s numbers fell across the board. His contact rate sunk; as did his walk rate and power. The only positive from his second half numbers was a spike in stolen base numbers, but his bat skills are far more important to me than his athleticism at this point in his development. As I’ve mentioned, high elevation and low quality pitchers make the Arizona Fall League an ideal environment for hitters, and with Marisnick’s inherent talent, the 21 year old should be poised for a smashing performance. Anything less could be considered a serious disappointment.

SS Ryan Goins (Double-A)

546 AB, .289/.342/.403 (.745 OPS), 33 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 47/78 BB/K

With nine infielders on the roster, Ryan Goins is unlikely to see a ton of playing time. I expect Chris Owings will be the primary starter at shortstop for the Rafters, but Goins’ defensive versatility should allow him to squeak in some games at second base as well. The 24 year old doesn’t have the flashy tools, but he has a sound approach at the plate and can hold his own in the field. He’s not going to be a star and is unlikely to even be a steady regular, but Goins is the type of guy who would fit in extremely well as the 25th man on the roster for somebody. These at-bats could prove valuable, as with four years of minor league service under his belt as a former college draft pick, Ryan Goins should be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

OF Kevin Pillar (Single-A, High-A)

499 AB, .323/.374/.439 (.813 OPS), 28 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 91 RBI, 51 SB, 40/70 BB/K

Kevin Pillar is the only player on the list who didn’t play in Double-A this season, but at 23 years old, he’s in a similar age bracket to most. He got off to a great start with Lansing, hitting .322 with an .841 OPS in 86 games. That earned him a promotion to Dunedin, and while he hit .323 there, the secondary numbers dropped off dramatically. Pillar’s walk rate dropped from 9.3% to 2.8%, and his isolated power dropped 37 points as well. All told, his OPS slipped to .754 in 42 games. While the Arizona Fall League is thin on pitching prospects, there are plenty of crafty minor league veterans who could take advantage of Pillar’s underdeveloped game. As such, he’s been classified as a “taxi squad” roster player, meaning he can only be active on Wednesdays and Saturdays. The Blue Jays appear to be setting Pillar up for more of a learning experience than a test.

I wouldn’t classify the list as underwhelming, but it’s missing a certain catcher whom I had both hoped and expected to see assigned. Travis d’Arnaud tore up his knee in late June, and at the time it was suggested he was looking at roughly an eight week recovery. That would have placed him at a late August or early September return, which isn’t particularly ideal for a prospect. The Triple-A season would be coming to a close, and it would be cruel to expect d’Arnaud to make his major league debut coming off a knee injury with no rehab assignment.

I can’t remember if it was ever said by General Manager Alex Anthopolous, but at the time it was widely speculated that d’Arnaud would finish his season in the Arizona Fall League, allowing him to recover some lost at-bats and better prepare himself for a possible starting assignment next spring. The fact he was held off the roster suggests two possible scenarios, neither of which makes me feel particularly good.

The first is that the knee injury has taken longer to recover from than initially expected. That would be extremely bad, as catchers are required to squat for brutally long periods of time every day, which is hard on the knees to say the least. It would also be yet another knock against d’Arnaud in the injury prone department, as in just the last few years he’s dealt with recurring back issues as well as a torn thumb ligament. Some level of durability is expected of catchers, and if this knee problem is lingering, one would have to seriously question d’Arnaud’s long term future behind the plate.

The second scenario is less worrisome but just as frustrating. By holding a healthy d’Arnaud out of the Arizona Fall League, the team would be all but handing the starting catcher job to J.P. Arencibia. While once could argue that d’Arnaud has done nothing at the major league level and shouldn’t simply be handed the starting job, one could also point out that Arencibia has a .272 on-base percentage in 229 career games. I was hoping to see a fair competition in spring training for the starting job, but if this is the accurate scenario, we appear headed for another Travis Snider / Eric Thames situation: a “competition” that is decided before it even starts.

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 0-0, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

On August 31st, Noah Syndergaard pitched the second best game of any Blue Jays minor leaguer this season, with the best being Roberto Osuna’s late July 13-strikeout gem. Facing South Bend for the fourth time this season, the hitters failed to take advantage of their extended looks, as just one out was recorded outside of the infield grass. The other 14 came by way of strikeout or ground out, a masterful performance from beginning to end. In total, Syndergaard allowed just one base runner, a first inning single by Tom Belza. The game finished off a fabulous second half of the season, as since the Midwest League All Star break in late June, Syndergaard has a microscopic 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Those who are thinking Aaron Sanchez is easily the top pitching prospect in the system may want to have a second look.

2. C Yan Gomes (LAS): 32 AB, .406/.444/.656 (1.100 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 3/7 BB/K

When Yan Gomes was called up to Toronto the first time, he had a number of big hits and really helped the team when it needed it most. The other call-ups, however, didn’t go nearly as smoothly. In total, Gomes produced a .165/.225/.316 batting line in 33 games for the big club, and often times the swings were just as ugly as the box score suggested. The minor leagues were a different story, as this week capped off a breakout season for the Brazilian. He had at least one hit in each of his eight games, and showed his usual extra base power with two doubles and two home runs. Gomes has done enough over the last two seasons to show he can hit upper level minor league pitching, the next step is proving he’s not just another quad-A player.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 1-0, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Sean Nolin has not received the credit due to him for his monster 2012 season. He had yet another dominant outing on August 30th, allowing just one run on three base runners in six innings while striking out seven, earning the win. While pitcher win/loss records are useless in terms of analysis, the outing pushed Nolin’s mark to 10-0 on the season, which certainly looks nice on paper. What’s ever better, however, is his 2.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Additionally, his peripheral values (9.59 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9) suggest he’s been pitching to his talent and not just getting lucky, leading to a very strong fielding independent pitching number of 2.77. Backing up that value is his 3.16 FIP from the 2011 season, indicating we have a very real prospect on our hands.

4. CF Jake Marisnick (NH): 37 AB, .351/.359/.595 (.924 OPS), 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 1/3 BB/K

Without a doubt, Jake Marisnick had the most disappointing season of any Blue Jays prospect. I ranked him as the second best in the system over the winter, and was certainly expecting more than the .719 OPS he produced between the Florida State League and Eastern League. At least he finished the season on a positive note, as after failing to appear on the hot sheet for two months, his late August performance earned him a spot on the final list of the year. Marisnick played in eight games this week, and had two base hits in six of them. The walks were down – as they were for his entire stay with the Fisher Cats – but he finally displayed some of the power that allowed him to bust onto the scene for the Lugnuts last season. With New Hampshire long eliminated from post season action, Marisnick can take some time and prepare himself for the Arizona Fall League, where the environment and his hitting ability should combine to produce some gaudy numbers.

5. SS Ryan Goins (NH): 29 AB, 10 H, .345/.441/.552 (.993 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 5/6 BB/K

At 24 years old Goins isn’t much of a prospect, but he’s done enough over the past two seasons to receive a mention when he has one of the best weeks of his career. He filled up the stat sheet, showing good plate discipline, solid power, and surprising speed – his three stolen bases this week alone bested his 2011 total of two. Goins’ slash lines over the past two seasons have been eerily similar, as in 2011 while playing for the D-Jays, he hit .284/.340/.404 (.745). This season, with New Hampshire, he concluded the year with a .289/.342/.403 (.745) line. He doesn’t have strong enough tools to play regularly in the major leagues, but with a strong 2013 season he might be able to carve out a niche as a Mike McCoy type player, either with Toronto or somewhere else.

6. 1B Mike McDade (LAS): 23 AB, .348/.464/.522 (.986 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 5/6 BB/K

Back and healthy after a trip to the disabled list earlier this month, McDade had a very strong week in limited playing time. Unlike the other hitters on the list who saw action in seven or eight games, McDade played in just six, but did enough in those games to earn the final spot on the final hot sheet of the season. He proved a couple of things with his 2012 performance; first, that he’s probably better than a lot of us gave him credit for, and second, that even with an uptick in performance he still doesn’t hit enough to be a major league first baseman. It’s a shame, as McDade has solid power, an average bat, and is strong defensively, but the rule of first basemen is harsh and unforgiving – and rightly so. If you’re dreaming on a first base prospect who might have an OPS upwards of .800 in his prime years, you’re probably doing the baseball thing wrong.

There are many surprises, and many expected performances. One note, before we begin, is that the Jays traded 2B Niuman Romero (26) to the Phillies in return for Future Considerations. He only had 25 ABs with Las Vegas this season (his only one within the Jays organization) which makes his stay with the Jays really brief.

Aside from that bit of news, here’s what I’ve noticed:

The 10 Hottest Jays Hitting Prospects (more…)

Out of the Top 50 Jays Prospects: Ryan M. Goins

Short-Stop / 23 years old / 5’10″ 170 lbs

image courtesy of flick.com

Born: February 13th, 1988 in Round Rock, Texas

Bats: Left   Throws: Right

High School Team: Stony Point (Texas)

College: Dallas Baptist University

Drafted: by the Jays in the 4th rd of the 2009 draft

Signed: as a non-drafted FA by the Jays out of Albright College June 15th, 2010 by Aaron Jersild

Quick Facts:

• Made the NYP mid-season all-star team in 2010.
• Also pitched in College, going 3-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 19 BB, 27 SO, 35 hits, and a 1.62 whip in 8 starts with Dallas Baptist in 2008.
• His hitting stats in College in 2008 were 207 ABs, 74 hits, 14 DB, 3 TR, 10 HRs, 17 BB, 41 SO, and a .357/.404/.599 line. (more…)

Image Courtesy of BC's Sports Weekly

(1:23pm EST) It’s now common knowledge that Dan Uggla has been traded to the Atlanta Braves for IF/OF Omar Infante (.321/.359/.416 in 134 games across 5 positions in 2010) and RP Michael Dunn (1.89 ERA in 25 games in 2010). I wouldn’t normally devote an article to a player that got traded to another team, even if the Jays were rumored to have had heavy interest, but the amount of chatter that was sparked in Jays land over Dan Uggla, combined with the Marlins return for him makes it worth taking a look.

The Marlins managed to receive a super utility man who primarily hits singles in Infante, but there’s a chance he could only be with the Marlins for his club option year and then walk after 2011 when he becomes a free agent. Even after his career year, he qualified only as a Type-B free agent, so the best case scenario for the Fish would likely be that they would receive a sandwich pick next offseason should Infante sign elsewhere. Obviously there’s still the scenario of the Marlins attempting to re-sign Infante as well.

Dunn is a reliever that is pre-arbitration eligible and controllable, but has constantly battled control issues throughout his career. He has a career 4.1 BB/9 in parts of 5 minor league seasons, and has walked 22 batters in 23 Major League innings. He always seems to bail himself out of trouble though, always posting a respectable ERA and has 486 strikeouts in 445.2 career innings across all levels.

What am I getting at? (more…)

Here is a review of the major events in the minors for the Jays on Saturday, 24th of April:

AAA Las Vegas – Lost 2-1 to Sacramento

• The 51s were stung by a very effective Trevor Cahill and Sacramento pen, who came in and dominated them over 5 innings (1ER) and 4 innings respectively.
• Brad Mills (2-1, 2.19) took the loss despite providing another outstanding start. He lasted 7 innings, allowed 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8. His season totals indicate just how dominant Brad has been this season in AAA: 2-1, 2.19, 24.2 IP (just over 6 innings per start average), 20 hits allowed, 6 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 32 Ks, and hitter have a .222 average against him thus far. LHBs in particular are being dominated by Brad as they hold a meager .118 average against him. It’s nice to have this kind of insurance in AAA for the Jays. I’m not hoping he’s required any time soon because the Jays starters have been great thus far, but he is great security.
• Josh Roenicke (0.00 ERA over 8.2 IP) was great once again in relief, as he did not allow a hit or walk over 2 innings of work while striking out 3.
• It’s surprising that LV only had the 1 run since they did manage 7 hits and 4 walks in the game, they just couldn’t hit with RISP as they were only 1 for 13 in RISP chances in the game.
• Jarrett Hoffpauir (.293) was the only LV hitter with 2 hits (including a double), and he also managed a walk.
• Brett Wallace (.283) and Chris Lubanski (.273) had 1 double a piece.

(more…) ]]> http://jaysjournal.com/2010/04/25/jays-minors-review-24-apr-10/feed/ 3 http://jaysjournal.com/2010/04/16/jays-minors-review-16-apr-10/ http://jaysjournal.com/2010/04/16/jays-minors-review-16-apr-10/#comments Fri, 16 Apr 2010 11:13:32 +0000 Mat Germain http://jaysjournal.com/?p=1018 Here is a review of the major events in the minors for the Jays on Thursday, 15th of April: AAA Las Vegas – Lost 7-3 Lance Broadway‘s line: 5.1 IP, 6 hits, 5 walks, 4 ER, 4 strike outs, and now has a 3.48 ERA on the season. Zach Jackson didn’t give up a run [...]

Jays Minors Review: 15 Apr 10 - Jays Journal - Jays Journal - A Toronto Blue Jays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Ryan Shopshire had some issues in his first start of the season, allowing 4 walks, 7 hits, and 4 ER while striking out 2. However, the relief was great in this game, as both Dustin Antolin and Nestor Molina went through 2 squeaky clean innings a piece striking out 3 each with no hits or walks allowed. Evan Crawford came out after that and the game went to extra innings. He allowed the winning run to score, but not without a fight. The run was scored after he allowed a lead off single, then 2 straight groundouts pushed that runner to 3B. The runner was driven in by Didi Gregorious (what a baseball name) with a single and resulted in Crawford taking the loss for the game.

Here is the just announced roster for the Lansing Lugnuts in 2010. I have placed their ages and BA ranking for Jays prospects if they made the top 31 this year:

Pitching Crew:

SP Chad Jenkins (22 yrs old, #3 BA rank), SP Ryan Shopshire (24 years old), SP Dave Sever (23 years old), SP Scott Gracey (23 years old), SP Matt Fields (23 years old), SP Evan Crawford (23 years old), RP Dustin Antolin (20 years old), SP Ryan Tepera (22 years old), RP Aaron Loup (22 years old), RP Nestor Molina (21 years old), RP Steve Turnbull (23 years old)

Catchers:

Sean Ochinko (22 years old), Jon Talley (21 years old), Karim Turkamani (23 years old) (A.J. Jimenez on D.L.)

1B:

Balbino Fuenmayor (20 years old), Sean Ochinko (22 years old)

2B:

Ryan Schimpf (22 years old, #16 BA rank), Oliver Dominguez (20 years old), Kevin Nolan (22 years old)

SS:

Ryan Goins (22 years old, #24 BA rank), Oliver Dominguez (20 years old), Kevin Nolan (22 years old)

3B:

Mark Sobolewski (23 years old), Balbino Fuenmayor (20 years old), Sean Ochinko (22 years old)

LF:

Eric Eiland (21 years old)

CF:

Kenneth Wilson (20 years old, #28 BA rank)

RF:

Bradley Glenn (22 years old), Chris Hopkins (22 years old)

DH:

All – Kevin Nolan, Jon Talley, Oliver Dominguez ect..

Looking at the names on this list, I am very impressed by the amount of talent the team will have to begin the season. Chad Jenkins is the most obvious name on this list and may not be on the team for too long, but he leads a very deep staff. Matt Fields, Dustin Antolin, Dave Sever, and Ryan Tepera in particular are very interesting prospects that could jump a level or two this season. Aaron Loup impressed right away after being selected in the ’09 draft with 19 Ks in only 16 IP and should build on that this season. Offensively, the additions of Sean Ochinko, Ryan Schimpf, and Ryan Goins to this team immediately make it a very potent squad. With Kenny Wilson (37 SBs in 321 ABs) leading things off and the firecracker that is Oliver Dominguez (13 SB in 142 AB) included, this team will not be lacking any speed or energy.

Chad Jenkins will most likely be the first pitcher to throw for Lansing, and here is the likely lineup to begin the year:

1. CF Kenny Wilson
2. SS Ryan Goins
3. C Sean Ochinko
4. 1B Balbino Fuenmayor
5. 2B Ryan Schimpf
6. LF Bradley Glenn
7. 3B Mark Sobolewski
8. RF Eric Eiland
9. DH Oliver Dominguez

Very nice looking lineup even if it does lack a lineup power in the middle.

I encourage anyone in the Lansing area to go see these guys play live. They’re the players that play all out for the full season and are trying to get noticed, so you know that every game you see the players are putting out 100% effort. If you can’t make it out there, you’ll get all of the information you need about these players here, as i intend to stay on top of things as I go along. I received the following information for anyone interested in going out to the games.

The Lugnuts open “their 15^th season on Wednesday, April 14, at 7:05 p.m. with an Opening Day Eat-a-Palooza. For $15, fans can purchase a ticket to see the Lugnuts battle the Lake County Captains and enjoy unlimited food inside the ballpark. Tickets to all 70 of the Lugnuts’ regular season home games at Cooley Law School Stadium as well as to Wednesday’s Crosstown Showdown against Michigan State University, presented by Auto-Owners Insurance, are available for purchase online at www.lansinglugnuts.com, at the stadium box office, and by calling 517-485-4500.”

Enjoy if you can make it, and go get’em Lugnuts!