Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The sixth part of the series will look at right handed pitchers, a position where Toronto has one of the strongest and deepest systems in all of baseball. I narrowed the list down to just six pitchers, but I could have gone on for at least twelve to fifteen without scraping the bottom of the barrel if I had enough time and clever classifications.

• Top right handed pitcher prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Kyle Drabek
• Right handed pitchers in 2012 Top 30: 12
• Right handed pitcher WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Roy Halladay (14.9), Brandon Morrow (9.6)

The King in the North

Noah Syndergaard – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
8-5, 103.2 IP, 81 H, 30 ER, 3 HR, 31 BB, 122 K
2.60 ERA (2.21 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, 10.59 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 2.16 GO/AO

Jays’ pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

For the second straight year, Noah Syndergaard takes the crown as the best right handed pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system. While it may come as a shock to some, it’s something I’ve been confident in for a long time. People were quick to point out his rough start to the season, even labeling him as “overhyped”, but I as wrote a number of times in varying degrees of detail, the piggybacking system the Blue Jays implemented early in the year was holding him back. Once he was unleashed from those chains and restrictions, his potential was unveiled. In the 19 games he started, Syndergaard had a 1.47 ERA (1.66 FIP) and 0.89 WHIP to go along with a 10.17 K/9. He was scoffed at as a signability pick when the Blue Jays selected him in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft, but with just two years of professional development he’s proven to be a whole lot more than that; he’s on the verge of being one of the better pitching prospects in baseball.

Syndergaard isn’t too far off from what I believe to be the ideal pitching prospect, if there is such a thing. First and foremost, he has the size and build that is capable of throwing 200 to 220 innings year after year. Syndergaard stands 6-foot-5 with a broad and muscular upper body. His lower half is a step or two behind strength wise, and I think it would be wise for him to add ten to twenty pounds onto his listed weight of 200 over the offseason. Pitchers are one of the few positions in all of sports where a “big ass” is beneficial. Syndergaard takes full advantage of his height, utilizing a high 3/4 arm slot to create a steep downward plane on his pitches. His delivery is loose and easy, and he repeats his mechanics well. He’s also a Texan, which is something I’ve come to appreciate in baseball players. Syndergaard has a commanding presence and a fighter’s mindset both on the mound and off the field, always seeking out ways to improve his game.

His physical maturity has a direct correlation with the improvement of his stuff, as through his first few years of high school, Syndergaard was rail-thin and struggling to touch 90 miles per hour. Since adding mass, his fastball has risen three full grades, from fringe average to arguably plus-plus. Syndergaard’s four seam fastball sits in the 93-96 mph range with ease, and has shown the capability of touching 97, 98, and even 99 miles per hour when he reaches back for some extra juice. His two seam fastball is a notch behind in velocity, sitting in the low 90’s, but shows much better life. Syndergaard will bore the pitch in on the hands of right handed batters, and run it away from left handed hitters. He mixes and matches the two pitches well, which is important for a fastball-reliant pitcher like Syndergaard.

The rest of Syndergaard’s arsenal is still in the development stage. His primary breaking ball is a 12-6 curveball that he throws in the 78-82 mph range. He generates plenty of swings and misses, but has had trouble consistently finding tight movement. Syndergaard began to work in a slider as the season wore on, and the early signs are encouraging. Thrown in the mid-to-high 80’s, the pitch meshes well with his arm slot, as it has two-plane movement as opposed to the frisbee-like sliders thrown by pitchers with lower arm slots. Syndergaard’s fourth pitch is a circle changeup with arm side fade. It has nice drop when thrown in the low-to-mid 80’s, but can get a little firm when thrown any harder than that. The arm speed on the pitch is good, and he disguises it well when his two seam fastball is working.

Command remains elusive to Syndergaard, as he’s still mostly a control pitcher. For someone who only turned 20 at the end of August, that’s more than acceptable. His stuff has allowed him to get away with a lot of things early in his career, but High-A, where he’ll open the 2013 season, could be a different story. It’s one of the bigger jumps in the minor leagues, and Syndergaard will be receiving a full workload for the first time in his career. He’ll need to learn how to pitch when he doesn’t have his best stuff, which is a process every pitcher must go through. Even if there are a few bumps in the road this season, the strides he’ll make with command and pitchability will be huge for his career in the long run. Needless to say; I’m excited.

Question Mark

Aaron Sanchez – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
8-5, 90.1 IP, 64 H, 25 ER, 3 HR, 51 BB, 97 K
2.49 ERA (3.41 FIP), 1.27 WHIP, 9.66 K/9, 5.08 BB/9, 2.22 GO/AO

In terms of raw stuff, Aaron Sanchez is the top pitching prospect in the system, and one of the best in baseball. Unfortunately, there’s a lot more to pitching than just stuff (though it’s awesome to have), which is why, for me, Sanchez takes a back seat to Noah Syndergaard and falls into the Question Mark category. The former supplemental first round pick has two glaring issues that will determine how successful he can or will be in the future; durability and command – or lack thereof, and both problems were on display during the 2012 season. Sanchez dealt with forearm soreness during July, and while he only missed two weeks worth of games, that’s not something you want to see with a 20 year old. He also visibly tired as the season wore on as well, resulting in arm drag and poor command. In his 90.1 innings, he walked 51, hit seven batters, and threw six wild pitches.

The durability concerns are based upon his lanky frame, as at 6-foot-4, he weighs just 190 pounds. His limbs are long and lean, with lots of room for added mass all over. Of the Lansing (soon to be Dunedin) Three, the organization will definitely need to take it the slowest with Sanchez. His inning jump was the smallest, but he was clearly the most impacted, and anything beyond a 30-inning hike in 2013 could prove to be damaging in the long term. The mechanics are clean, as he’s balanced and smooth in the delivery, and follows through with very easy arm action from the 3/4 arm slot. His lack of strength in his lower half has a negative impact on the consistency of his mechanics, as once he begins to tire his pitching base weakens and his release point falls apart. When this happens, the command problems I mentioned above really begin to creep up.

The stuff truly is dynamite. Sanchez’ fastball is on the same level as Syndergaard’s, sitting in the 92-96 mph range and touching as high as 98 miles per hour. The pitch has natural sinking action, and can explode on hitters because of the deceptively easy action in his delivery. It’s already at least a plus caliber pitch, and with improved mechanics (leading to more consistent life) it should settle in as an easy plus-plus offering. His curveball is the best breaking ball in the system, with similar future grades to his fastball though it’s a step behind at present. Sanchez uses his long arms to generate a tight spin rotation on the pitch, giving it great depth and break. He does an excellent job of getting both called and swinging strikes in the zone, but he’s still learning how to make hitters chase down and in the dirt. Sanchez has continued to work on the changeup he really only began using at the professional level, and it’s still below average. He has good arm speed on the pitch which aids with deception, but he’s still trying to smooth out the fade required for swinging strikes.

The recurring theme is his lack of command, which is why he receives the Question Mark label for me. Sanchez can get the ball into the zone, sometimes, but even when he does, he has little feel for where the pitch is going. If he could more precisely locate his pitches, his stuff would play up so much better. A lot of his struggles in the second half came as the result of consistently poor location, as the only area he appeared capable of hitting was the upper part of the plate. Sanchez has the athleticism and baseball acumen to resolve these problems, but it’s most certainly going to be a process, and a slow one at that. Remain patient, because more so than any other player in the system, if Sanchez gets himself right, he has absolute superstar written all over him.

On the Rise

Roberto Osuna – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
2-0, 43.2 IP, 32 H, 11 ER, 2 HR, 15 BB, 49 K
2.27 ERA (2.79 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, 10.10 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, 1.08 GO/AO

Osuna delivers a pitch for the Vancouver Canadians (Image courtesy Battersbox.ca)

I’m not sure any Blue Jays prospect made a bigger splash during the 2012 season, so Osuna fits the On the Rise moniker perfectly. When Toronto signed the then-16 year old Osuna, he was pitching for the Diablos Rojos del Mexico in the Mexican League, which is a remarkable feat considering that many feel the league is roughly the equivalent of Triple-A baseball. He (or his rights-holding team, anyways) received a 1.5 million dollar signing bonus in July 2011, and Osuna was thrown right into the fire this past summer. Not only did he makes his debut stateside, he skipped the Gulf Coast League altogether, starting his career with Bluefield. After four starts and three relief appearances with the club, Osuna received a promotion to Low-A Vancouver where he finished the year with five starts. His Vancouver debut on July 28th, however, was the organization’s best start of the season; Osuna pitched five shutout innings, allowing just one hit and one walk, while striking out an incredible 13.

Despite no discernible physical development, Osuna’s stuff has taken a significant leap forward over the past year. His fastball has risen to the 91-94 mph range consistently, and Osuna has shown the ability to gear up for some 96 miles per hour heat when required. One of his greatest strengths is his fastball command, which is arguably the most important trait for a young pitcher to learn, and likely the main reason he’s been able to dominate hitters well above his age group. Furthermore, he’s already excelling in pitchability, as he adds and subtracts from his fastball to mess with timing and keep his opposition off balance.

He mixes and matches even further with a split-change that carries plus potential. The offspeed pitch is thrown in the 77-82 mph range, giving it excellent velocity separation while showing both break and deception as he maintains arm speed through the release. There’s isn’t a complete consensus on what Osuna throws for a breaking ball, as while some classify it as a curveball or slurve, others have labeled the pitch a slider because of the bite and two-plane movement. Whatever you want to call it, the pitch rounds out Osuna’s arsenal well, and could become above average as he’s already shown he’s comfortable throwing it in most counts and against both lefties and righties.

Osuna has a sturdy build at 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, which is why many have labeled him as lacking projection. While he’s unlikely to burst up another two inches and add 20 pounds, he’s proven over the past year that improvements in mechanics and baseball acumen can be far more important to development than just physical projection. Osuna has a legitimate mid-rotation starter ceiling, and the next step in the quest to reach that goal will be Lansing. It’s expected he’ll be on a tight leash innings-wise just like Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Nicolino were last season, but Osuna could reach the majors as a 20 year old if things unfold as the Blue Jays hope.

Dream on Me

Adonys Cardona – 2012 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
0-1, 15.2 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 1 HR, 10 BB, 20 K
6.32 ERA (3.58 FIP), 1.60 WHIP, 11.49 K/9, 5.74 BB/9, 1.25 GO/AO

Adonys Cardona warms up during Spring Training 2012 (Image via MLBProspectPortal.com)

When the Blue Jays signed Adonys Cardona as an International Free Agent in the summer of 2010, they gave him the largest bonus ever for a Venezuelan player; 2.8 million. That’s how highly the organization thought of the right hander, and why they remain high on him even after a derailed season. Cardona made his debut as a 17 year old in the summer of 2011, appearing in 10 games in the Gulf Coast League. He showed impressive stuff, racking up 35 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. In a bit of a surprise move, he was re-assigned there this past summer. There were rumors he was dealing with arm soreness in the spring, and those reports appear to have been actualized as he appeared in just eight games, totaling 15.2 innings. Even with the apparent setback, he’ll still be just 19 years old on Opening Day, and Cardona has more than enough raw talent to catch up to some of the more highly touted arms in the system.

Like nearly every potentially elite pitching prospect, Cardona is armed with a promising fastball. Over the past two years it’s risen from the 86-90 range up to the 90-95 mph range consistently. The fastball has good life and he commands it well given his age. One of the most promising aspects with Cardona’s fastball is the potential growth to come. He’s still a string bean at 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds, and while he doesn’t have the broadest of frames, there’s plenty of room for some physical maturity.

Cardona throws a curveball, but at present it’s struggling to be an average pitch. The offering has hard, late break, but it’s easy to pick up out of his hand, particularly when his release point is early. His overhand arm slot really benefits the vertical drop of the pitch, so if he can improve his mechanical consistency and match his release point to his fastball, the curveball could be above average. Cardona’s third pitch is a changeup that he’s shown surprising feel for. His quick and easy arm action really aids in the deception, as the pitch is difficult to distinguish from his fastball. Like most young pitchers, Cardona is still working on balancing firm and fade, as he will occasionally throw the changeup too hard. Control of the offspeed pitches hasn’t been as much of a problem as command, where Cardona is still below average.

Under normal circumstances, when a pitcher has two years of short season ball under his belt, you expect him to make the leap to a full season club in his third year. Unfortunately, that’s not going to be the case with Cardona. He’s fallen so far behind innings-wise that he definitely needs a third year in short season, though hopefully it will be with Bluefield or Vancouver. Once he gets back on track, health permitting, you can start thinking about Lansing in 2014, and so on. For now, the best course of action is the safe one, and that sees Cardona attempting to build his arm strength up to 40-50 innings in 2013.

The Bullpen Guy

Marcus Stroman – 2012 team(s): Low-A Vancouver, Double-A New Hampshire
3-0, 19.1 IP, 16 H, 7 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 23 K
3.26 ERA (2.89 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 10.71 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 1.92 GO/AO

Stroman pitching for the Orleans Firebirds in the Cape Cod League during the 2011 season (Image via JaysProspects.com)

The Blue Jays selected Marcus Stroman with the 22nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, which was quite a coup when you consider that Baseball America ranked him as the 10th best available talent. Teams likely shied away from the right hander for two related reasons: his size, and his undefined role. Stroman stands just 5-foot-9 while weighing 185 pounds, which is hardly the ideal body type for a pitcher. As such, even though he did work as a starter for Duke during his college days, most feel his future is in the bullpen. While serving as Team USA’s closer in the summer of 2011, he pitched 8.1 shutout innings, allowing no hits, just one walk, while striking out 17. Clearly, he’s comfortable in the role. Unfortunately for Stroman and the Blue Jays organization, he received a 50 game suspension late in the season for a “performance enhancing drug”, which cut his year short and will delay his debut in 2013.

Working in the bullpen, Stroman has two pitches that already grade as at least plus, which is why, among others, Keith Law of ESPN felt that he could have been pitching in games in Toronto this past September, suspension be damned. His fastball plays up in short bursts, as while he sat 92-94 mph in the rotation, he ramps up to the 93-96 mph range in the bullpen, while touching as high as 98 miles per hour. One of Stroman’s strongest traits is that despite his diminutive build, he maintains velocity extremely well. The fastball has impressive arm side run and sink, but he has more control than command of it at this point, leading him to occasionally catching too much of the plate.

Stroman’s highest rated offering is his slider, which was arguably the best breaking ball in the 2012 draft. It has excellent depth and sharp, hard biting break while clocking in the 82-84 mph range. It’s his go-to pitch, and for good reason, as he has excellent command of the slider and can throw it both in and out of the zone against both lefties and righties. Stroman has begun to throw a cutter more often, which at 86-90 mph is nice middle ground between his two best pitches. It bores in on the hands of left handed batters, while breaking away and out of the swing plane of right handed batters. He rounds out the arsenal with a solid, mid 80’s changeup that benefits from his quick arm action. It’s a little firm, as its vertical drop isn’t quite where you want it.

The starter versus reliever debate with Stroman will continue until the Blue Jays come out and share their intentions, which with this front office, isn’t likely to happen anytime soon. I think the bullpen role is the correct one, but unlike most people I don’t see him as a closer type. The effort in Stroman’s delivery could prevent him from ever throwing 200 innings in a season, but I can’t peg him in as a 60 inning guy either. I’d like to see the Blue Jays utilize him in a hybrid reliever role, where he’d receive the innings of a long man, but would pitch in high leverage scenarios. A team’s most dire situation is rarely with no outs in the ninth, and having a pitcher like Stroman capable of coming in during the 6th or 7th inning with runners on and shutting the opposition down for two or three frames would be incredibly valuable. It was a role many talked about with Tim Lincecum when he was drafted, and while he had an extremely high peak, the starting rotation has clearly worn him down at just 28.

Remember the Name

Alberto Tirado – 2012 team(s): GCL Blue Jays, Rookie-Bluefield
3-2, 48.0 IP, 32 H, 14 ER, 0 HR, 17 BB, 39 K
2.63 ERA (2.89 FIP), 1.02 WHIP, 7.31 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 1.35 GO/AO

Alberto Tirado (Image via BlueJays.scout.com)

The hype train has quickly picked up on this young Dominican, as he’s gone from under the radar prospect to the middle of the spotlight in just a few months. Tirado was signed as 16 year old during the 2011 International Free Agency period, and received a rather ho-hum bonus of just 300 thousand dollars. The Blue Jays clearly had their projection goggles on, however, as Tirado has long levers and a thin, athletic frame. His delivery is just as promising, as he uses his lower half well and his arm action is very loose and easy. Since signing, he’s continued to grow and add muscle, which has seen a noticeable augmentation in his stuff.

Previously struggling to register 91 on the gun, Tirado is now comfortably sitting between 91 and 94 miles per hour and commanding it well. He’s touched as high as 95 and 96, but consistent readings at that level may not come for another year or two. Coming in from a low 3/4 arm slot, the pitch has a bit of natural cutting action away from right handed batters. Tirado complements the fastball with a power slider that shows late break on two planes and serious depth. The slider has superseded a once promising curveball, a pitch the Blue Jays organization clearly feels is less conducive to success with his arm slot. He completes the arsenal with a changeup that is surprisingly advanced, and uses it to put away left handed batters.

Tirado finished his debut season with three starts for Bluefield, but the more important number is the 48 total innings he threw. Whether he starts with Bluefield or Vancouver next season, Tirado should be looked upon to consistently throw five innings or 70 pitches per outing in order to further build his arm strength and prepare for full season ball in 2014. If Tirado performs as well as we hope and expect next June and July, I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds himself in the Midwest League at some point in August.

I didn’t actually see the interview so have relied heavily on the reliable coverage provided over at djf.  It sounds like it was quite an interesting chat, and it saw AA open up a bit more that he has done in the past, which is refreshing.

He did touch on the Lansing Big Three specifically, making the following points:

1) They’ll start the season in Dunedin, with nothing stopping them from being promoted to New Hampshire if they pitch well

2) It wasn’t necessarily an innings ceiling they were subjected to this season

3) He mentioned studies the Jays have done, and they feel it is prudent to be over-protective of their teenage prospects as they are still developing physically.  Aaron Sanchez was mentioned, saying that, despite his ability to hit 99 on the gun, he is still quite skinny and his frame needs to develop before his workload increases.

(as an aside, and this is purely my own hypothesis, I am guessing Justin Nicolino was held back for similar reasons, despite fact he was no longer a teenager entering the 2012 season)

Now, I don’t want to question the studies that the Jays have conducted as I have no idea what went in to them, sample size, what the results were, etc.  But I really hope that if an anomaly comes along, Jays management are flexible enough to deviate from the standard course and give the prospect more rope than they normally would.

Funnily enough, I believe they have such a prospect.

Most Jays fans know of Roberto Osuna by now.   He was signed as an international free agent in 2011, making his North American pro debut this season.  He finished the year in Vancouver, where his first start went viral after he struck out thirteen in just five innings.  His last start was potentially even more impressive though.  In game two of the Northwest League finals Osuna, again, dominated the Boise Hawks (generally regarded as the best hitting team in the league) going five innings, giving up two hits and striking out nine.

Marc Hulet, who does prospect rankings for Fangraphs and writes for various other Blue Jays sources, was at the game.  As per his year end power rankings for the Toronto Sun he was impressed.  Considering Osuna was nowhere to be found on most pre-season rankings, it is quite telling that Hulet now has him ranked third, behind only Travis D’Arnaud and Aaron Sanchez.

In his brief blurb about Osuna, Hulet says ‘He worked quickly, showed good command, and is mature beyond his years.’  That last bit is something you often read when looking at Osuna’s scouting reports.

In fact, the two things that stand out about Osuna are his stuff and his maturity.  He was pitching against grown men in the Mexican League as a sixteen year old!  So, two pieces of the puzzle are in place.  Osuna has the weapons to move up the system and is mature beyond his years.  What about physically?  Like Sanchez, does he need to be coddled as he his body matures?

The short answer is no.  He’s listed at 6’2″ 230 pounds.  Hulet compares him to a young Bartolo Colon.  And I have read from a few sources, that if anything, the Jays will have to monitor his weight (not the good weight) going forward.  I don’t see that.  I saw Osuna pitch three times this season, and even managed to corner him for a few questions after another game.  There is no doubt he is a big kid.  But most of his bulk is in the trunk.  His legs are massive, which is where he develops the power in his delivery.  Will his frame continue to grow in the next couple of years?  Maybe.  And the Jays studies probably have included teenagers on other end of the spectrum to the slight ones you normally associate with younger prospects.

However, I truly believe the Jays have something here.  And if there is anything in the studies allowing teenagers that meet certain criteria to progress a bit quicker then the Jays management need to be flexible in their approach.

If Roberto Osuna should meet this criteria, then there is no need for him spend a full season being too good for the Midwest League.  Why not start him in the Florida State League?  Instead of the Dunedin Big Three, it can be the Dunedin Big Four (two of which are quite literally very big).  Hell, I’m sure we could come up with an even better nickname for them.

I’m looking forward to AA’s response.

Osuna delivers a pitch for the Vancouver Canadians (Image courtesy Battersbox.ca)

As recently as June, few within the Blue Jays fan base were particularly familiar with the name Roberto Osuna. The Blue Jays acquired the Mexican right handed pitcher in August of 2011, signing the 16 year old for 1.5 million dollars. Not all of that went into Osuna’s back pocket, however, as the pitcher was under contract with the Diablos Rojos del Mexico of the Mexican League. In such situations, the team receives a vast majority of the bonus –- in the neighborhood of 75% –- leaving Osuna with roughly 400 hundred thousand dollars, a pittance for a player of his caliber.

While the deal made headlines last summer, many quickly forgot about Osuna. Sixteen year olds can only sign future contracts, that is, their contract is for the next year, not the current season being played out. Additionally, as teenagers are almost exclusively assigned to short season teams, high profile international free agents can literally be sitting on the sidelines for a full calendar year before finally getting into game action. Furthermore, their lack of experience and exposure keeps them in the back end of prospect lists -– if they’re present at all.

That was precisely the case with Osuna. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus left him off his top 20 over the winter, while the writers at Baseball America snuck him in at the end, ranking him 30th in the system. Osuna was one of the final cuts on my personal top 30, but Jared and Mat were clever enough to place him 27th on the Jays Journal top 50 prospect list. Needless to say, we were all guilty of some serious oversight, as over the past two months Osuna has established himself in the upper levels of short season ball and should find himself in the top 10 of most Blue Jays prospect rankings this winter.

He’s made a total of seven starts and three relief appearances between Bluefield and Vancouver, and has been nothing short of dominant. In his 35.2 innings, Osuna has allowed only 26 hits and 12 walks, good for a .198 opponent’s batting average and 3.03 BB/9. His ERA and WHIP have been equally impressive, sitting at 1.77 and 1.07 respectively, entering action on Saturday. The most impressive amongst Osuna’s glorious statistics is his strikeout rate, which currently sits at 10.85 K/9. The strength of the number lies in his July 28th start against the Everett Aqua Sox.

The game was Osuna’s debut for Vancouver, and he was matched up against another high profile prospect from the 2011 international free agent crop in Victor Sanchez of Seattle. The eyes of the scouting world were on him, and Osuna delivered. He started the game with seven consecutive strikeouts, and ended up striking out 13 of the 19 total batters he faced, a Vancouver record. He threw 75 pitches (with 58 strikes) in the outing, and according to Michael Schwartze of MLBDirt.com who attended the game, an incredible 45 of the 58 strikes were swinging.

The repertoire was as advertised and then some, as Osuna kept his fastball in the 91-94 mph range the entire evening, touching as high as 96 mph. Not only is the shear velocity excellent, but he displayed impressive fastball command. Osuna has also already shown the ability to add and subtract from the fastball, a trait typically found in much older and more experienced pitchers. His dominant secondary offering is his split change, which he throws in the 77-82 mph range with both deception and break. His breaking ball was suggested to be a curveball or slurve, but according to those in attendance, the pitch looked much more like a slider. It’s possible that after working with Osuna in extended spring training, the Blue Jays minor league evaluators felt a slider was a more suitable pitch given his 3/4 arm slot.

Below is Schwartze’s video from the Vancouver game, which originally appeared in his scouting report on MLBDirt.com. The article itself is an excellent read, and I highly suggest you give it a look. At the bottom of the page I’ll include another video of Osuna’s start, this time from Bullpen Banter, who have an HD option as well as a slightly different angle from the first video.

The biggest drawback with Osuna is the lack of physical projection. He stands 6-foot-2, and while listed weights are often just a rough estimate, the 230 pounds he’s given on MiLB.com appears to be a more than fair number. While he’ll evolve and develop as a pitcher, you can’t expect much in terms of added velocity despite his youthful age of 17. Moving forward, Osuna’s focus should be on developing consistency with his delivery and offspeed pitches and maintaining his conditioning, as the pure stuff is already there.

It’s not unusual for prospects to make tremendous climbs up prospects rankings in a short period of time, and Osuna could be one of baseball’s greatest risers. As previously mentioned, few had him in Toronto’s top 30 last winter, yet there are already whispers that Osuna could be in consideration for the top 100 in all of baseball. He may not have the upside of Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, or Daniel Norris, but his advanced stuff and high floor could push him to the front of the group of pitchers in the system just behind them. I can say, with absolute confidence, Roberto Osuna will be the biggest jumper on my offseason prospect list.

From Bullpen Banter:

No. 27: Roberto Osuna

Pitcher / 17 years old / 6′2″ 230 lbs

Born: February 7, 1995 in Juan Jose Rios, Mexico

Bats: Right Throws: Right

High School: N/A

College: N/A

Acquired: Signed by the Blue Jays as an international free agent on August 30, 2011 for $1.5 million

Pre-2011 Rank: N/A

Quick Facts:

• Nephew of former Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Antonio Osuna
• Nicknamed “little canon” after his uncle’s nickname “El Canon”
• The second-youngest pitcher in Mexican League history
• His father, of the same name, also pitched in the Mexican League
• Is the first Mexican free agent to be signed by the Blue Jays
• Was initially expected to sign for $4 million

Career stats:

Video:

Osuna striking out the side (starting at the 0:23 mark) in the Lansing Lugnuts’ annual Crosstown Showdown, April 5, 2012:

Scouting report:

In the summer of 2010, the Blue Jays heavily scouted 15-year-old Mexican pitcher Luis Heredia, going down to the wire in their attempt to sign him once he had turned 16 and was eligible to ink a contract. One of the top international prospects available at the time, as many as seven teams were interested in Heredia and it was reported that the Jays offered the highest bid at $2.8 million.

But the Pittsburgh Pirates, having already known Heredia for over 10 years and possessing strong ties to Veracruz, his team, wound up winning the bid and left the Blue Jays virtually empty-handed, something that the Jays surely weren’t going to let happen again if another young Mexican prospect emerged in the future.

So months later, when 15-year-old Roberto Osuna was already touching 94 mph on the radar gun, then-Blue Jays international scout Marco Paddy was made signing him a priority after being easily impressed. The funny thing, though, was that Osuna somewhat came to the Blue Jays himself.

“You’re with the Blue Jays, right? I know you scouted Luis Heredia, I want you to scout me this year,” Osuna said to Paddy at the time, according to a Toronto Sun article.

That didn’t mean that there wasn’t a list of teams competing with the Jays to sign Osuna, as it was reported that as many as 200 people from more than 10 teams would watch him pitch.

The day Paddy met Osuna for the first time, he pitched in an under-16 international tournament where he allowed a pair of earned runs with 13 strikeouts in seven innings, finishing that tournament with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 20:2. Already pitching at a Double-A level according to Paddy, Osuna signed with the Mexican League’s Mexico City Reds shortly after the tournament.

The highest level of baseball in Mexico and considered Triple-A/professional-level, the Mexican League is comprised of grown men and former major leaguers with an average age of over 29. That didn’t stop a 15-year-old Osuna, playing for Mexico City, the most acclaimed and popular team in the league, from holding his own against players well into their 30s.

In 13 games, Osuna gave up 12 earned runs on 25 hits in 19 2/3 innings for a 5.49 ERA, with 11 walks and 12 strikeouts. He struck out the first batter he faced swinging and two of his first three, while becoming the second-youngest pitcher in Mexican League (Liga Mexicana de Beisbol) history at 16 years, two months. Pitching well beyond his age and already mixing up his pitches, the Blue Jays had seen enough and offered Osuna a $1.5 million bonus when he became eligible to sign in July of last year. The Jays made sure to make the most lucrative offer — as Mexican League clubs pocket 75% of the amount with the player getting the rest — and in the end, they got their man.

It’s easy to see why the Blue Jays and more than 10 other organizations were so impressed with Osuna. Having just turned 17 in January, the right-hander has a quick arm with a smooth delivery and an advanced feel for pitching. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent, ranging from 88-94 mph, but he apparently hit a minimum of 92 with it while pitching for the Lansing Lugnuts in their Crosstown Showdown last month. The fastball has mild arm-side movement and projects to be a plus pitch with the potential to be graded even higher down the road, considering he’ll almost certainly add velocity to it.

Complementing his fastball is a 72-77 mph, 11/5 curveball/slider (slurve) that projects to be an above-average to plus pitch, though a lot of work will be needed to reach that. Still, the pitch was rumored to consistently sit in the low-80s last month with good two-plane movement, so it appears that Osuna has already made improvements to the pitch since signing almost one year ago. He also shows a good feel for a 77-80 mph changeup that, according to Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, has splitter-like movement with some late drop.

Osuna throws from a high three-quarter arm slot with a high leg kick and, although not a concern given the fact that he’s just 17 years old, he tips his off-speed pitches by either slowing his delivery, throwing from a different arm slot, or fumbling with the grip in his glove. The main knock on Osuna is his immature and somewhat overweight body, which I can confirm after seeing him in spring training in March. Even though I had read scouting reports on Osuna before, I was surprised at the thickness of Osuna’s frame in person, so his coaches will surely keep an eye on his conditioning going forward.

Given his age and his proximity to the majors, Osuna is a very raw prospect and could go down a variety of different paths in his development. Baseball America considered the risk on Osuna extreme, but since pitchers at his age don’t come around every day, the reward could very well be extreme as well.

2012 team: GCL Blue Jays (Rookie)

Ultimate ceiling if he puts it all together: No. 3 starter

-JM

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