Apr 19, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Rajai Davis (11) at third base on a triple in the first inning against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

It was time of great anguish among the Blue Jays faithful. It was the 10th inning of the 22 game of the 2013 season. Having suffered two crushing defeats at the hands of division rivals Baltimore, the Jays had found a  new way to torment the fan base, blowing a 3 run lead late in the game.

Not only did they blow the game, now in the bottom of the 10th, they were trying to lose it in the most excruciating way possible. Adam Jones came to the plate with 1 out, and a man on first, he launched a lazy fly ball out to Right Field where it was to be easily shagged by Jose Bautista, but of course not.

Fans and bloggers alike reacted in disbelief.

Are. You. Kidding.

— Travis B (@travisb31) April 24, 2013

Now with a men on first and second and JJ Hardy at the plate, many Jays fans had been hit with that “Its happening again, why do you hate us baseball Gods” feeling. Of course Hardy was going to crush a single, and of course it was going to go to the noodle armed Rajai Davis in right field. Ball met bat, Blue Jays fans hung there had in disappointment.

But then this happened….

And it was glorious.

Suddenly things changed. Could it be….could the Blue Jays finally be getting a break? All they had to do was score against Jim Johnson, whom has been prettttty lights out for the last year or so.

So what do the Blue Jays do? Exactly what they seemingly haven’t been able to do all year. They had good at-bats and loaded the bases for noted Blue Jays slugger Maicer Izturis. Ugh. “Well that rally was nice I guess” was a thought that passed through more than a few fans’ minds. But what’s this? Izturis worked a 4-pitch walk to bring in the go ahead run?

THE ORIOLES MAGIC IS OURS.

Seriously, this was not a “Blue Jays” way to win a game. A dominating closer issues a bases-loaded walk to a guy with a triple slash of .169/.206/.277? This was a victory circa the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, where anything and everything bounced in their favour on the way to a 93-win season. Combine the superior talent of our roster, with that enraging good fortune, and the Blue Jays are going to be unstoppable!

Sep 6, 2011; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos talks to media before the game against the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 14-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

In season, we saw the arrival of Colby Rasmus and the first number retired in team history: Roberto Alomar‘s number 12. We may not have been too competitive on the field but the fans bought into AA’s plan to build for 2013 and beyond. To be sustainable. He brought the minor league system from 25th best to 3rd best according to Baseball America. He drafted well and the prospect pool started to deepen. We, as fans, were hoping for the best but realistic that to fix what J.P. Ricciardi had left would take some time. A new philosophy always needs to bleed into the fabric of a team over time. So the 2011 Home Opener was a celebration of not only a new season but a new feel to our beloved Blue Jays.

Date: April 1, 2011
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
Game: Minnesota Twins vs. YOUR Toronto Blue Jays
Weather:…there is no weather inside a dome…ain’t figured that out yet? Hehe

We would see the maturing process of Ricky Romero reach it’s pinnacle in 2011 as he is named the number 1 starter for this team. With Romero and Brandon Morrow we saw two fixtures in the rotation. The next three were a mish mash of Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Henderson Alvarez, Jesse Litch et al. The offence seemed primed for a great season with Jose Bautista blowing the cover off the ball, Adam Lind showing early promise and Brett Lawrie looking to impress. The pieces were falling into place at certain positions.

The game was a laugher from the start. We tallied fours runs in the first off a resurgent Carl Pavano and added six more before the start of the sixth. Romero was tossing donuts and looking every bit the number 1 he was designated to be. He would go 6.1 innings, 3 runs given up but only 1 earned and 7 strikeouts. Add to that the killer night of J.P. Arencibia (3-4, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, including 2 home runs). The game was well in hand as we trounced the Twins 13-3.

Coming off the type of surprise season the team had in 2010 this looked to be a great omen…an omen that went in the crapper as we finished 81-81…a mediocre line but underneath that failure to win were the seeds being planted of a winning team. We just needed to be patient. With a few more moves over the off-season this looked like a team being built properly, with no excuses. All we needed was to wait…

July 28, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins second baseman Emilio Bonifacio (1) during batting practice before a game against the San Diego Padres at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

It is the name that slips through your lips like a fine Islay Scotch on a cool winter’s eve. So smooth in action and in enunciation….Emililo Bonifacio….Emeeeeeeeelllyooooo Bonifaasheeoohhhhhh. This mere mortal of a man, the one playing for your Toronto Blue Jays, will run rings around you with speed, max effort and heart. Emilio Bonifaciooooooh……the true key to our pennant chances.

This “super-sub” has the tools and talent to help through an inevitable injury issue. He can give you great at bats, OBP and speed on the bases with average to above average glove work in the outfield and most of the infield. A man who could start on most other teams. A craftsman of utility. The reason championships are won is that all 25 men out on that field has the talent to succeed in their given situations. Cito Gaston was a huge proponent of men knowing their role and playing it well. The luxury we have is that there is always going to be a suitable replacement for many positions with one man. Cito never had a Bonifacio. He changes those roles.

When you are allowed more diversity between 4 maybe 5 bench guys it gives that manager another layer of possibilities in the endless situations encountered in a single game of baseball. One man almost becomes two. Being able to pencil in 5 days a week of Bonifacio you know you will hardly skip a beat on offence or defense. There is enough protection around Emilio that he will be able to thrive, to not feel like he has to do it all. That is the mystique of Bonifacioooohh…

if we are to be the success we know we can be it isn’t going to be about the stars who perform as they should perform. It is the glue men like Bonifacio and Rajai Davis and even a Mike McCoy. You don’t want there to be a let up if you go to the bench. McCoy is the late inning defensive glue. Davis may be an average all around player but he is a plus with the speed. Take that useful fourth outfielder and add a more patient bat and defense diversity and you have Emilio. That is the power of Bonifacio. Talent, speed, patience and skill. I tell you the name just rolllllls off the tongue as it settles into the winds. Bonifacio…he is the king key.

The Blue Jays need to look for an alternative if they hope to field a contender next season, as Davis clearly isn’t going to cut it. The team is likely to first look outside the organization, as left field usually isn’t the most difficult position to find a bat for. Josh Hamilton is most certainly out of the team’s price range, and Nick Swisher might fall into that category as well once the market (and the owners’ wallets) opens up. Angel Pagan is a reasonable possibility, but he may not want to leave a contending team, or shift from center field. The team has a number of other holes to fill, namely the starting rotation and second base, so it’s possible the Blue Jays will aim for a cheaper alternative to the names above. Among those options is the current right fielder, Moises Sierra.

August 7, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Moises Sierra (14) at bat against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Sierra isn’t a star prospect by any stretch of the imagination, but that’s not what the team needs from their left fielder at this junction. With Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, Travis d’Arnaud, and (hopefully) a resurgent Yunel Escobar, the 2013 edition of the Blue Jays should have plenty of offensive firepower, and that’s without including whoever will be playing designated hitter. Toronto needs someone to stabilize left field, to provide average to above average production both at the plate and in the field, and that is something that the incumbent Rajai Davis simply cannot do.

I ranked Sierra as the 30th best prospect in the system last winter, with a perfect world projection of an everyday corner outfielder who hits 6th or 7th in the lineup. That’s a very reasonable expectation, and one that he could achieve as soon as next season. Sierra’s offense is built around his power, which scouts have graded out as a plus tool. Statistically, that puts him in the range of 20-25 home runs per year. His bat is less advanced, and because of his approach is unlikely to ever be any better than average. Sierra is an aggressive hitter, but that leads more to unfavorable contact – i.e. pop ups and ground balls – and a low walk rate as opposed to a high strikeout rate. His fielding, as we’ve seen in Toronto, isn’t great. His speed gives him decent enough range, but his routes to the ball are often less than idea. The majority of his defensive value comes from his right arm, which as we saw on Friday night, is spectacular. The accuracy is inconsistent, but there’s no doubting his arm strength; it’s a legitimate 80 tool.

While there are certainly better options in free agency and through trade, it eventually comes down to value per dollar spent. Unless the Blue Jays plan to move Adeiny Hechavarria to second base permanently – which would be a bad idea and colossal waste of value – there is no in-house replacement in the middle infield. The same can be said for the rotation; the team doesn’t presently have the internal depth to build it to above average, they’re going to need to spend something – either money or prospects – to do so. The outfield is a different story, as with Sierra seemingly major league ready and Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick not far behind, the position shouldn’t classify as a need.

By turning to Moises Sierra next season and declining the option on Rajai Davis, the team would be saving roughly two million in salary, which can immediately be used to help sure up one of the aforementioned positions of need. How he performs over the next five weeks will carry significant weight on that decision, as the Blue Jays will be facing some harsh competition in September. As the schedule is setup, Toronto will almost exclusively be facing above .500 teams, most of which are in the wildcard hunt and will be giving 100% each and every night. While the sample size will remain small, if Sierra has good numbers at the end of September with 150-200 at-bats under his belt, the choice could become a little clearer. Sierra alone doesn’t sound that exciting, but if sticking him in left field increases the chances of landing Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, or someone of the like, I’m all for it.

Here are some other fun facts from tonight’s game:

• After 1839 career plate appearances and 598 games, this was the first multi-homer game of Rajai Davis‘ career
• J.P. Arencibia set a new career-high with six RBI, surpassing his previous high of five set back on April 1, 2011 against Minnesota
• Tonight was just the 17th time in Arencibia’s career that he’s hit fifth in the order
• The Jays scored 14 runs, which were not only a season-high but their most since scoring 16 against the Yankees on July 14, 2011
• The Jays now have 11 home runs in their last three games, and their total of five tonight was their highest in one game since September 30, 2010
• Toronto entered play tied with the Cardinals for fourth in the Majors with 51 home runs, and after five tonight, they’re two back of the Yankees for third-most in the Majors
• All but one of the Jays’ 14 runs came from the bottom half of the batting order
• Yan Gomes homered in just his second MLB game, and after becoming the first Brazilian-born player to play in the Majors last night, he (obviously) became the first Brazilian player ever to hit a big league home run
• Tonight marked the third consecutive outing in which Ricky Romero has walked at least four batters
• Coming into tonight’s game, The Blue Jays pitching staff as a whole led the Majors with 151 walks. After eight more tonight, they still lead the Majors with 159
• As friend of the site @SMcEwen_eh pointed out to me on Twitter, this was the sixth game this season where Jays pitchers collectively issued eight walks
• The Jays’ bullpen entered the game tied for third-worst in the Majors with a collective WAR of zero. Allowing four unnecessary runs tonight certainly won’t help
• After losing the closer’s role, Francisco Cordero tossed his fourth consecutive scoreless inning

- JM

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If Ricky Romero was looking to get the bottom of the order fired up in order to get more run support, he got his wish as the bottom of the order was on fire last night.  From Edwin Encarnacion in the 6th spot all of the way to Rajai Davis in the 9th spot, the Jays bottom dwellers were a total of 11 for 19 (.579) with 2 doubles, a HR, and 2 stolen bases. Talk about great support! This is the kind of run production many of us were expecting when looking at the names in the lineup at the beginning of the season. Hopefully it translates to many more wins post All-Star break.

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Just over the half way point of the season, it is a great time to take a look at how our individual Blue Jays have faired. Today I will examine the stat: Wins above replacement player (war).

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David Cooper (more…)