May 6, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) reacts in the dugout against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 8-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Five days ago ESPN Stats and Info provided us with an article leading up to the semi-historic Cy Young Matchup involving R.A. Dickey and David Price. This piece by Katie Sharp and Mark Simon focused on the relative struggles of both pitchers compared to their magical 2012 campaigns. Dickey pitched well that game but has yet to show more than flashes of the dominance he carried all of last season. So should fans in Toronto to be worried about the aging pitcher who is signed with the Toronto Blue Jays throughout the 2015 season?

We’ve been hearing a lot lately about how Dickey is not throwing same the “hard” knuckleball that he was last season. ESPN references that the slashline on Dickey’s sub-80 MPH knucklers is similar this year at .226/.294/.397 compared to last year when it was .241/.293/.382. They mention that this season he is missing the hard knuckleball that was so puzzling for hitters to figure out and was really what made him such a rare breed.

According to ESPN, Dickey threw almost 500 knuckleballs in 2012 that were at least 80 MPH. On these pitches, batters only managed to hit a miserable .146, struck out a ridiculous 92 times and had an OPS of .407. Going into his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays, again according to ESPN, he had thrown only 12 knuckleballs over 80 MPH and never more than three times in any one start.

So Dickey’s not throwing the knuckleball as hard this year. But does he have to? His slash line is actually slightly better this year on sub-80 MPH than it was last year. He’s also 38 years old. I don’t think throwing 500 knuckleballs over 80 MPH per season is really sustainable at this point. But I don’t believe he needs to be throwing that hard to be effective. Looking at his pitch hot zones on ESPN, it appears he is making up for the loss in velocity with more movement, which ties in nicely to our next point.

I talked about Dickey’s BB/9 ratio this year in my Cy Young Matchup preview and fellow Jays Journal writer Alex Dineley mentioned his BB% previously so we’ve already covered the fact that his walks are up. But why? Hitters are simply not swinging the bat. Last year opponents chased at pitches outside of the zone a mind-boggling 1/3 of the time. ESPN compared this to his recent start in Seattle where the Mariners chased at only 16% of pitches outside the zone.

So why didn’t batters just start laying off pitches last year? Because they couldn’t. Again I defer back to ESPN’s pitch zone tracker. Dickey was all over the strike zone last year – I don’t have specific stats but I’m sure the ridiculous chase ratio was helped by the fact he was always ahead and working out of a lot of 0-2 counts. This year he is missing more and more in the same spot – his knuckleball consistently flutters out and to the right from the mound.

It’s obvious that scouts and hitting coaches have picked this up as most teams have allowed Dickey to create his own mess by allowing too many baserunners. Although he pitched well his last start, he allowed another five walks in five innings of work to balloon with BB/9 to 4.1. In order to get this horrendous ratio back down to respectability Dickey will be forced to make adjustments and once again find a way to work the strike zone early in the count.

Overall Dickey seems like he’s a pretty savvy baseball guy. It’s the only way he’s managed to survive all of these years. He’s already reinvented himself once after it was discovered he doesn’t have an ulnar collateral ligament and I haven’t even mentioned the fact that he’s been battling nagging back and neck injuries. So I have confidence he will once again find a way to get the job done on a consistent basis. But if he doesn’t find a way to adjust Robert Allen Dickey’s days as a dominant MLB starter may soon become a memory of the past.

September 21, 2011; Cleveland, OH , USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (56) during the first inning in the game against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric P. Mull-USA TODAY Sports

For Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and R.A. Dickey their best career starts were all against the Blue Jays division rival Tampa Bay Rays.

On July 23, 2009 Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game against the Rays in his home ball park US Cellular Field. Buehrle cruised through the Rays lineup as you can tell from the game lasting 2 hours and 3 minutes. At the time, the Rays had a 343 on base percentage. Two of the Rays batters hit a foul ball very close to the fair territory down the left field line. Five of the Rays hitters had a full count. DeWayne Wise made a homerun stealing catch in the 9th. Without that catch it would have been a 1 hitter which isn’t bad either.

On August 8, 2010 Brandon Morrow threw a complete game 17 strikeout 1 hitter against the Rays in his home ball park Rogers Centre. Morrow had a no-hitter going through 8 2/3 innings until Evan Longoria broke it up with an infield single! Morrow would have been the first Blue Jay since Dave Stieb in 1992 to throw a no hitter. It was also Morrow’s FIRST career complete game, that’s getting your first career complete game in style! Morrow’s 17 strikeouts in a game was just one less than the Blue Jays record of 18 strikeouts by Roger Clemens in 1998.

On June 13, 2012 R.A. Dickey threw a 1 hitter against the Rays at Tropicana field. He struck out 12 hitters which was a career high at the time. He didn’t walk a single hitter and only faced 29 hitters in total because of an error which is just 2 over the minimum if you didn’t know. The only hit Dickey gave up was an infield single that Mets third baseman David Wright didn’t field cleanly. The New York Mets formally appealed the official scorekeeping of the only hit allowed to be changed to an error on Wright in an attempt to make it a no hitter but MLB denied the appeal.

Now obviously the Rays have different players now than they did when 3/5 of the Blue Jays rotation had their best career starts against them. But for 3/5 of the Blue Jays rotation playing the Rays should always give them some good memories.

The Blue Jays offense struggled mightily in their 4 losses, managing to score a pitiful 3 runs and never really threatening to do much else. In their two wins they appeared to be a completely different team, wutg the offense managing to show the kind of fireworks that was expected coming into this season as they exploded for 19 runs.

I’ve lost count of how many times the Blue Jays have won a game and had it heralded as a ‘turning point’ but Sunday’s win adds to the total. What’s left to be seen for the belaugered Jays is if this win actually is a turning point,  if their playoff aspirations remain in tact it had better be; ‘it’s early’ is getting closer and closer to ‘there’s always next year’ with every series loss.

GBOAT:

Edwin Encarnacion

Coming into this season there was some doubt about what the “real” Edwin Encarnacion was. Could he possibly match his prodigious  power numbers from last season, or would he regress to something less super human? Over the past couple of weeks EE has managed to eliminate any concerns about whether 2012 was an anomaly, crushing devastating home run after devastating home run.

Encarnacion’s Win Probability Added for the week was a gaudy 26.4%, how did he achieve this? By doing what he does best and hitting the baseball to where even the BABIP Gods couldn’t touch him. Watching from the 100 Level Outfield of the SkyDome on Tuesday night I can attest that Edwin’s 500 Level Bomb was something to behold. If you’ve been living under a rock and haven’t seen the homer in question, I present it to you in GIF form complements of GameReax.

Omar Vizquel Honour of Ineptitude

R.A. Dickey

The defending National League Cy Young Award Winner continued to struggle this week. In his start on Saturday, Dickey was victimized by the long ball giving up 7 runs on 6 hits (3 of which were of the round trip variety) and 2 walks. For those of you keeping track at home that’s 7 runs on just 8 baserunners. Dickey also struck out 5 in his 6 innings pitched. His Win Probabity Added for the Game (and the week) was a nauseating -26.4%. It was an odd day for Dickey as he seemed totally in control until he was suddenly not. As a member of the crowd at the Dome for his start I would have been a lot more upset, but it was a really nice day out, and I live in Canada, I’ve got to enjoy this weather while it’s here.

If the Blue Jays are going to turn this thing around, they are going to need their presumed ace lead the charge. Mr. Dickey got off to a not quite this slow start last season as well, so here’s hoping to a similar turnaround to dominance.

Wrap Up

The Blue Jays open a 4 game set tonight in Tampa Bay facing the division rival Rays, before a 3 game set against the borderline unbearable division leading Boston Red Sox. It’s been said before, and hopefully won’t need to be said again but this is a big week for the Blue Jays if they have any hope of making a claim for one of the American League’s playoff spots.

If they continue to struggle, the Blue Jays fans will need to take comfort in the words of the Starks of Winterfell. Winter is Coming, and so far that’s the only time the Blue Jays have looked like contenders.

R.A. Dickey has yet to add stability to the Jay’s rotation. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

While the title of this post may suggest taking a step back from the ugly start to the Jay’s season for a light piece revolving around the antics of the teams loveable mascot, sadly that is not the case.

The Jay’s season to date can quite easily be classified as an unmitigated disaster, and while trying to pinpoint what has caused the lack of success would be an exercise in futility, there are certain glaring issues that cannot be ignored.

The first two games against the Mariners have shown the difference maker a true Ace (or lack thereof) can be for a team.

Since the departure of the unflappable Roy Halladay from the top of the Jay’s rotation the team has been without a true Ace to lead their staff. Even in their most woeful stretches during Halladay’s tenure they could count on their Ace to put the brakes on any losing skid when his turn in the rotation came.

In the first three years of the post Halladay era the club hoped a leader would emerge from the stable of young pitchers. After 2011 it appeared Ricky Romero was ready to assume this role posting a 15 win season with  a 2.97 ERA and making a trip to the All Star Game, but fate it seemed had different ideas.

In the 2012 season a lot of thing went wrong but the most troubling aspect of the season was that the club remained at square one in it’s search for an Ace: Romero crashed and burned posting the worst ERA among qualified starters for the season, and Morrow continued to show flashes of brilliance but also continued to lack the ability to remain on the field for an entire season.

Then the magical offseason that we all remember so fondly happened and Anthoplous pilfered the Marlin’s big league club to beef up the rotation, but still there was no true Number 1 starter in the bunch, so top prospect Travis D’Arnaud was dealt for reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey in hopes that the search would finally be over.

So far this season the Dickey as Ace experiment does not seem to be working out. Keeping in mind small sample size and the nagging neck injury which Dickey has been pitching through. Even taking those fats into account Dickey has exhibited troubling signs so far this season. Dickey’s BB% is sitting at 9.9 percent, compare that to other Aces within the AL and you’ll see CC Sabathia with a 5.9 percent walk rate, and David Price at 5.7 percent, and yesterday’s opponent Felix Hernandez with a miniscule 3.6 percent walk rate, Even Jon Lester who is not a true Ace by any stretch of the imagination sits more than 2 percent below Dickey at 7.7 percent.

Dickey’s walk rate over the past two seasons where he has used his knuckle ball was only 6 percent so that dramatic increase as well as a jump in his HR/9 (from 0.85 to 1.25) is seeing more balls fly out of the park with more men on the bases when they do.

There have been times this year where Dickey has shown the brilliance that helped earn him a Cy Young award. Hopefully this poor performance can be attributed to the neck injury and his rates will return to normal once the injury has subsided, and then the Jay’s will only need to worry about the other four starters and the offense… PROGRESS!!

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs.

Apr 5, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Josh Johnson (55) during their game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

If you remember Happ’s spot was the 5th spot in the rotation.

With Johnson taking Happ’s spot you could argue the 5th spot is now the 1st spot because starting Friday the Toronto Blue Jays rotation will have Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and Brandon Morrow pitching back to back to back.

That’s more like it.

The new rotation order helps the Blue Jays immediately because the one and only King Felix will be pitching for the Seattle Mariners on Friday. So the Blue Jays will have Josh Johnson pitching against him instead of Happ. Ace against ace is always better than ace against 5th starter.

The Mariners are also going to be the first victims of the Jays having their 3 best starters pitch 3 days in a row.

And don’t overlook the value of having R.A. Dickey pitching after Johnson. It’ll be hard for teams to make the adjustment from facing the power arm of Josh Johnson to facing Dickey’s knuckleball the next day.

The Blue Jays having nothing but aces on the mound for consecutive games can also help start win streaks or stop losing streaks a lot quicker.

The Jays big 3 in the rotation haven’t been at their best yet. That’s one of the reasons the Jays are 10-18. If they all start pitching like they’re capable of they should all pitch deep into games every night so the Blue Jays will be able to give the bullpen a lot of rest.

The rotation switch means Happ will pitch after Buehrle. In a perfect world you’d like to be able to split up the lefties but they’re both very different pitchers so it’s not like the Jays would be giving teams the same look back to back days. Buehrle and Happ can also keep games competitive and are capable of pitching deep into games which is all you can ask from your 4th and 5th starter.

Johnson will have to pitch after Happ now which doesn’t really give him any extra advantage the way Dickey and Morrow have an advantage because of the pitcher that starts the day before them. But whatever, Johnson can take advantage of the fact that he’s Josh Johnson.

Unfortunately the Blue Jays have 2 off days in the same week in the middle of the May so the rotation order is bound to have to be changed again soon. Hopefully the Jays can find a way to keep their 3 aces pitching back to back even with the off days. For however long it lasts it’s going to be fun seeing the Jays have Johnson, Dickey and Morrow pitching back to back to back.

It’s not going to be fun for the teams that have to face all the Jays aces on consecutive days.

Good luck to the rest of the Major League Baseball! You’re going to need it.

Apr 22, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado (13) scores on a one-run RBI sac fly by Chris Davis (not shown) in the sixth inning as Toronto Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia (9) cannot make the play at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Jays 2 – 1. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Well this is it. If the Blue Jays can’t pull out the win tonight the season is obviously over, I mean it’s already April 23! You can’t come back from a hole like this with only 141 games to go in the season, it’s just not possible. I mean R.A. Dickey has shown he’s a National League wonder (just ignore that last start please), and there’s no way he can survive in the AL, it’s just not going to happen.

Although….if the Jays do manage to pull out the win tonight, #2 starter Brandon Morrow is taking the mound tomorrow, and if they manage to win that WE’RE BACK IN IT.

You know what? I’ve changed my mind (this is my Game Thread I can do what I want), R.A Dickey is going to pitch a gem tonight, followed by a dominating performance from the ever likeable Brandon Morrow tomorrow. You know what? I’m feeling a sweep this weekend of the Yankees too, I’M A PREDICTION MACHINE.

Join me in the comments to bask in the glory of my clairvoyance (or rub in the fact that I’m dumb and the Jays are scuffling along again). Not reading this live? Well you can just send your rage at me by way of the Twitter machine (@travisb31)

News & Notes

The @bluejays have claimed LHP AARON LAFFEY off waivers from the New York Mets.

— Blue Jays-Official(@BlueJays) April 23, 2013

The Laff man is back! So there’s that…this is sure to cause some grumbles about contending teams not needing to tinker with their rosters this much, but really, this is just another attempt by Alex Anthopolous to exploit the waiver wire to add a little depth. Much ado about not a whole lot.

Toronto Blue Jays

SS Munenori Kawasaki (L)
DH Adam Lind (L)
RF Jose Bautista (R)
1B Edwin Encarnacion (R)
LF Melky Cabrera (S)
3B Brett Lawrie (R)
CF Colby Rasmus (L)
2B Maicer Izturis (S)
C Henry Blanco (R)

R.A. Dickey RHP

Baltimore Orioles

LF Nate McLouth (L)
3B Manny Machado (R)
RF Nick Markakis (L)
CF Adam Jones (R)
1B Chris Davis (L)
C Matt Wieters (S)
SS J.J. Hardy (R)
2B Ryan Flaherty (L)
DH Nolan Reimold (R)

Miguel Gonzalez RHP

Things That Are Happening

I’ll be posting updates of what’s happening throughout the game below. Also if someone sends a tweet I deem to be funny  or pertinent enough to the conversation, I’ll embed it right in the post (because I can that’s why).

Jun 06, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Brandon Morrow (23) reacts after getting the last Chicago batter out in the ninth inning at US Cellular Field. The Toronto Blue Jays defeat the Chicago White Sox 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

The rotation order is certainly not set in stone as it can change from month to month and from week to week. If that order is the one the Blue Jays decide to start the season with it gives you a sense of what they hope it will accomplish.

R.A. Dickey will mess up hitters timing with his knuckleball. A day after facing Dickey, Brandon Morrow’s fastball will look like its 118 mph to a hitter. Mark Buehrle will be counted on to eat up innings in the middle of the rotation whether the bullpen needs some rest or not. Usually not a lot is asked of a fourth starter so by that logic if Josh Johnson is even close to being the Josh Johnson of 2012 or better he’s more than doing his job. Ricky Romero was awful last season. The Jays are banking on it being just one down year. If Ricky can have a repeat of any of his seasons other than 2012 he’ll be a stud as far as fifth starters go. Then Dickey will be counted on to eat innings (a bit of an understatement) after Ricky. The circle then just continues the same way.

It’s fun to think of a possible rotation order for the Jays to start the season with, even though it’s bound to change as the season progresses. If the Blue Jays were to really start the season on fire and kept winning then you don’t change it. Of course that’s a best case scenario.

Sept 15, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (right) talks with catcher Rob Brantly (19) before their game against the Cincinnati Reds at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to think of many teams with stacked offenses. Heck there’s teams that could have better offenses than the Blue Jays (LA Angels, Detroit Tigers).

However when you look at the Blue Jays starting rotation you see 5 starters that all have the potential to pitch 200 innings in a season. Unless I just haven’t been watching baseball long enough or have a bad memory the only other team I can think of that had 5 starters capable of pitching 200 innings is the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies. They had Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton but even they didn’t all pitch 200 innings that season.

Pitching 200 innings is very hard for any starter because they have to pitch deep into a lot of games and stay healthy and consistent. As hard as it is, all the Blue Jays starters are capable of it.

You can’t talk about the Blue Jays rotation and pitching 200 innings without talking about Mark Buehrle first. He’s pitched over 200 innings for 12 straight seasons. He’s going to be pitching in the AL East now where it won’t be as easy to eat up innings. Especially since he barely made it the last 2 seasons with 205.1 in 2011 and 202.1 in 2012 but we certainly know he’s capable of it.

R.A. Dickey made his big league debut in 2001 and has only been a full time starting pitcher since 2010. In each of the years he’s been a full time starter his inning totals has gone up from 174.1 in 2010 to 208.2 in 2011 to 233.2 in 2012. Dickey’s knuckleball doesn’t put a lot of strain on his arm and he’s been a starter for such a short time that it’s reasonable to believe that 2011 and 2012 were just the beginning and that he’ll be able to continue pitching 200 innings.

After Buehrle and Dickey it starts getting a little more questionable.

Ricky Romero had a big down season in 2012 and as a result only pitched 181 innings. However he did pitch 210 innings in 2010 and 225 in 2011. Those were also just his second and third seasons in the big leagues. If Romero can have a bounce back season in 2013 he’s definitely capable of hitting the 200 innings mark.

Innings pitched is far from being the most important stat for a starting pitcher as starters like Josh Johnson make painfully obvious. Johnson is arguably the Blue Jays best starter but because of his injury history has only cracked 200 innings in 2009 with 209. Even last season when he stayed healthy he just pitched 191.1. Johnson is just coming into his prime at age 29, so if he can stay healthy he doesn’t need that big an innings jump to get to 200 in 2013.

Brandon Morrow is the biggest wild card as far as pitching 200 innings goes because he’s never done it. He’s only been a full time starter for 3 seasons. In 2010 he was on an innings limit. In 2011 and 2012 Morrow dealt with injuries but he still managed 179.1innings in 2011 and 124.2 in 2012. Like Johnson, Morrow is young and coming into his prime so if he can stay healthy and make all his starts he should be capable of pitching 200 innings.

No one should expect all 5 Blue Jays starters to pitch 200 innings. No one would be upset if they all didn’t. Just knowing they’re all capable of it is more than enough.

Mar 4, 2012; Bradenton, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jesse Chavez (20) and catcher Travis d

Even if you’re on team common sense, if you have any knowledge of the Blue Jays prospects, chances are you were stunned when you found out that the Jays were giving up Travis D’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. At first you might have even agreed that it was an overpay. When you get over the initial shock of these 2 top Blue Jays prospects being traded and really look at the trade you start to realize the Blue Jays have really underpayed.

Like most trades it will take a few years to see which team won or if it worked out for both sides but as of right now this is a big steal for the Blue Jays.

One of the most overlooked things about this trade is that usually when you’re trading for an elite pitcher, let alone the last CY Young Award Winner you’re giving up 3 of your top prospects at the least and sometimes even 4. That involves taking even a bigger risk because 3 or 4 prospects obviously have a better chance of turning into something significant than just 2. Apparently the Mets didn’t get the memo on that and Blue Jays were lucky the Mets were happy with just 2 prospects.

Yes, Syndergaard was one of the Blue Jays top pitching prospects but he hadn’t even pitched above Low A in his career. Even the most advanced scouts have no idea if he’ll even be good enough to make it to the big leagues or what kind of player he would be in the big leagues. He’s still years away from the big leagues and needs lots of developing. Like any prospect in the low minors he was just one possible bad season away from losing all his hype and trade value. The odds of him turning into nothing are a lot better than him turning into something. The odds of him providing half as much value to the Blue Jays as R.A. Dickey will are slim to none.

Then there’s Travis D’Arnaud. The Blue Jays top prospect and one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball and the top catching prospect in all of baseball. There’s so much hype around D’Arnaud the Mets wouldn’t trade Dickey to the Blue Jays without getting him.

The Blue Jays for the first time in a long time are playing for the here and now. Travis D’Arnaud is not Matt Wieters, Joe Mauer or Buster Posey. He’s not a franchise player.

Travis D’Arnaud hasn’t played a full season at Triple A yet. He had a high strikeout rate and was very injury prone. Those are things that are a lot more noticeable when he’s not a prospect on your favorite team anymore. You add in the fact that catchers take longer than most position players to develop their hitting and you start to realize that as low a standard as JPA has set it would be unrealistic to expect D’Arnaud to be significantly better than JPA right away. D’Arnaud was also supposed to just be a great hitter for a catcher not just a great hitter in general. Great hitting for a catcher is usually a lot less than what you’d get from every other position on the diamond. His offensive contribution would hardly be big enough for any Jays fan to cry about losing.

Yes D’Arnaud COULD eventually develop into an above average catcher but if you checked recently above average starting pitching is what wins championships not above average catchers.

R.A. Dickey could very well regress dramatically and end up just being a wasted roster spot while D’Arnaud and Syndergaard turn into All Stars. As of right now The Mets got a Low A starter whose career has barely started and a catcher that could hit better than most catchers which isn’t a very high standard to begin with. While the Blue Jays got the reigning National League CY Young Award Winner whose been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons. If that’s not a huge underpay nothing is.

Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PREWIRE

In a move that has solidified the Blue Jays’ Full-All-Star-Caliber-Potential starting rotation, the Blue Jays have traded prospects Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra to the Mets in return for Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Vancouver-born Mike Nickeas. In addition, the Toronto Blue Jays have extended Dickey to a 2 year/$24M extension with a 2016 club option worth $12M and a $1M buyout. Dickey is slated to make $5M for his 2013 season.

This will be a tough pill to swallow for a lot of Blue Jays fans as the acquiring price is pretty high, but it may be the best move if the Jays really want to contend for the World Series championship within the next few years. While Dickey may not extend for the Jays, he is a proven Cy Young pitcher coming off a 2.95 ERA over the last three years. He is not a fluke, and there should not be a concern with overall AL numbers, as he didn’t not predominantly use his knuckleball in his early career. In fact, over the past 3 years against AL opponents Dickey has a 1.77 ERA, 77 Strikeouts and 2 Complete Games over 71 innings. While those numbers represent about a third of a season over three years, it’s fair to say that Dickey can be great in the AL East.

The biggest concern is the prospect price that Anthopoulos has paid to net Dickey. Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard represent Toronto’s top two prospects, and will be an awful lot to give up for a short term player in Dickey, a backup catcher in Thole and a minor league catcher.

A simple way of approaching it is that back in 2009 Roy Halladay was traded for Kyle Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Taylor. Taylor was traded for Brett Wallace, who in turn was traded for Anthony Gose. Essentially the Blue Jays would be trading one Cy Young pitcher in Roy Halladay for Dickey, while retaining Gose and Drabek and giving up Syndergaard. The main difference is that the Blue Jays are acquiring the Cy Young caliber talent at a time where the team is ready to compete in the post season. Adding Dickey to a rotation that already included Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero could possibly set up Toronto to have the best starting five in the entire MLB.

Yes, Syndergaard and d’Arnaud are very coveted prospects, but at the same time that is exactly what they are; prospective major leaguers. Neither player has spent any time in the majors, making it very difficult to promise the greatness that they are projected to be. We’ve seen first hand former top Blue Jays pitching prospect Kyle Drabek struggle mightily in the majors, sporting a career 5.93 K/9 (fairly below average), 5.77 BB/9 (absolutely terrible) and a 5.34 ERA over 167 innings of work at exactly replacement level production. Syndergaard may sport equal or better prospective “stuff” in the minors, but he also has a ways to go. According to Baseball Prospectus, he is projected to be a high-end no. 2 starter but is a high risk with “some effort in the delivery; secondary offerings need grade jump for ceiling”. He will need some more time to develop and needs to face better talent at higher organizational levels. d’Arnaud seems be ready to go next year and is better ready for major league level talent, but we’d have to see how he reacts to pitchers making adjustments against him before the Mets can call him Gary Carter 2.0.

There are also concerns that Dickey will regress in pitching quality as he approaches his 40′s. What makes him different from most other pitchers, however, is that Dickey is a knuckleballer who doesn’t have a UCL. Throwing the knuckleball requires a tight grip on the ball to restrict any rotation of the ball at release point, essentially pushing the ball at a high speed. That type of almost effortless release can have Dickey pitching well into his 40′s, and depending on how the rest of his body holds up, possibly even longer.

Another very important note is the value of the contract that Dickey signed. At 2 years/$25M the Jays get almost a steal of a deal if he stays at mid value over the last 3 years. With Ryan Dempster signing a 2 year/$26.5M deal, Anibal Sanchez signing a 5 year/$80M deal and relievers Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League signing 3 year/$21+M contracts, the Jays are getting a very good deal based on how many more wins Dickey brings to the team.

What should also come into account is the fact that even with the loss of these prospects that the Jays have traded, the team still has a mid-range farm system. Even with Syndergaard, d’Arnaud, Justin Nicolino, and Jake Marisnick leaving the team, the Blue Jays still have Aaron Sanchez, Sean Nolin, D.J. Davis, Roberto Osuna, Daniel Norris, Marcus Stroman, Matt Smoral, Alberto Tirado, Franklin Barreto and many more prospects in their farm system, developing to be ready sometime in the future, with some slated to replace current Blue Jays post-2015.

It’s more than evident that the Blue Jays have completely re-branded their team in what can safely say is their biggest off season in team history. They look to increase their win total by a lot more than their 2012 total of 73. Their starting rotation looks like this: R.A. Dickey/Josh Johnson/Mark Buehrle/Brandon Morrow/Ricky Romero. Their batting order looks like this: Jose Reyes (S), Melky Cabrera (S), Jose Bautista (R), Edwin Encarnacion (R), Adam Lind (L), Brett Lawrie (R), Colby Rasmus (L) J.P. Arencibia (R) and either Emilio Bonifacio or Maicer Izturis (both switch hitters). The Blue Jays are slated to spend $115.6M in payroll for 2013, as projected by James G. The team has lost a lot of their top prospects. The year 2013 will set up either one of the most joyous baseball seasons if the Jays do well, or set the fans up for one of the most disastrously painful seasons if the team fails to meet their high expectations.

April cannot come any sooner.