Oct 23, 2011; Arlington, TX, USA; MLB former player Frank Thomas before game four of the 2011 World Series between the Texas Rangers and the St. Louis Cardinals at Rangers Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Tired of losing, we perused the papers and that new fangled intranet to see just what JP had in store. To build off of what was a pretty decent 2006 season and hopefully turn the tides and be that man to lead us into the playoff promised land. Except this is the year of the Vernon Wells contract. The Tomo Ohka, John Thomson, Victor Zambrano debacle in the rotation. B.J. Ryan was lost to injury. Dustin McGowan pitched the most starts in a season he ever would and Frank Thomas came here to DH and pad his stats and launch Hall of Fame clinching HR number 500. We lose reliable Ted Lilly to to Cubs and replace him with Ohka?? This was going to be a strange season in Blue Jays land…and a very lucrative year for the medical community as 12 different players succumbed to injury. It was a wild year in all the ways you wouldn’t want it to be.

Date: April 9, 2007
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
Game: Kansa City Royals vs. YOUR Toronto Blue Jays
Weather:…likely better than Minnesota….

We would send up the enigma that is A.J. Burnett to the mound against Odalis Perez?? I smell a whoopin’…and I smelled right people. Odalis and some guy named Jason Stanridge combined to surrender 8 earned runs in 4 innings. Burnett, on the other side of the coin, pitched a good above average game giving up 1 earned with 3 walks and 5 Ks. Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo and Victor Zambrano finished them there Royals. They stepped up and protected the integrity of the club that had been starting to sway a bit. The difference with Gibbons is that he loves to let the kids play (from the Bobby Cox school of knockdowns). 9-1 was the final as we out hit them Royals 14-4.

It would key a brutal season where people dropped like flies from injury, infighting is just a waste. I would rather converse….but maybe that’s the old school talking. I should have said cheque…lol. Thank goodness the debacle of ’07 is over…but not the end of the debacle…just where would you like me to put it?

Mar 4, 2012; Bradenton, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jesse Chavez (20) and catcher Travis d

Even if you’re on team common sense, if you have any knowledge of the Blue Jays prospects, chances are you were stunned when you found out that the Jays were giving up Travis D’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. At first you might have even agreed that it was an overpay. When you get over the initial shock of these 2 top Blue Jays prospects being traded and really look at the trade you start to realize the Blue Jays have really underpayed.

Like most trades it will take a few years to see which team won or if it worked out for both sides but as of right now this is a big steal for the Blue Jays.

One of the most overlooked things about this trade is that usually when you’re trading for an elite pitcher, let alone the last CY Young Award Winner you’re giving up 3 of your top prospects at the least and sometimes even 4. That involves taking even a bigger risk because 3 or 4 prospects obviously have a better chance of turning into something significant than just 2. Apparently the Mets didn’t get the memo on that and Blue Jays were lucky the Mets were happy with just 2 prospects.

Yes, Syndergaard was one of the Blue Jays top pitching prospects but he hadn’t even pitched above Low A in his career. Even the most advanced scouts have no idea if he’ll even be good enough to make it to the big leagues or what kind of player he would be in the big leagues. He’s still years away from the big leagues and needs lots of developing. Like any prospect in the low minors he was just one possible bad season away from losing all his hype and trade value. The odds of him turning into nothing are a lot better than him turning into something. The odds of him providing half as much value to the Blue Jays as R.A. Dickey will are slim to none.

Then there’s Travis D’Arnaud. The Blue Jays top prospect and one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball and the top catching prospect in all of baseball. There’s so much hype around D’Arnaud the Mets wouldn’t trade Dickey to the Blue Jays without getting him.

The Blue Jays for the first time in a long time are playing for the here and now. Travis D’Arnaud is not Matt Wieters, Joe Mauer or Buster Posey. He’s not a franchise player.

Travis D’Arnaud hasn’t played a full season at Triple A yet. He had a high strikeout rate and was very injury prone. Those are things that are a lot more noticeable when he’s not a prospect on your favorite team anymore. You add in the fact that catchers take longer than most position players to develop their hitting and you start to realize that as low a standard as JPA has set it would be unrealistic to expect D’Arnaud to be significantly better than JPA right away. D’Arnaud was also supposed to just be a great hitter for a catcher not just a great hitter in general. Great hitting for a catcher is usually a lot less than what you’d get from every other position on the diamond. His offensive contribution would hardly be big enough for any Jays fan to cry about losing.

Yes D’Arnaud COULD eventually develop into an above average catcher but if you checked recently above average starting pitching is what wins championships not above average catchers.

R.A. Dickey could very well regress dramatically and end up just being a wasted roster spot while D’Arnaud and Syndergaard turn into All Stars. As of right now The Mets got a Low A starter whose career has barely started and a catcher that could hit better than most catchers which isn’t a very high standard to begin with. While the Blue Jays got the reigning National League CY Young Award Winner whose been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons. If that’s not a huge underpay nothing is.

Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The sixth part of the series will look at right handed pitchers, a position where Toronto has one of the strongest and deepest systems in all of baseball. I narrowed the list down to just six pitchers, but I could have gone on for at least twelve to fifteen without scraping the bottom of the barrel if I had enough time and clever classifications.

• Top right handed pitcher prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Kyle Drabek
• Right handed pitchers in 2012 Top 30: 12
• Right handed pitcher WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Roy Halladay (14.9), Brandon Morrow (9.6)

The King in the North

Noah Syndergaard – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
8-5, 103.2 IP, 81 H, 30 ER, 3 HR, 31 BB, 122 K
2.60 ERA (2.21 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, 10.59 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 2.16 GO/AO

Jays’ pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

For the second straight year, Noah Syndergaard takes the crown as the best right handed pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system. While it may come as a shock to some, it’s something I’ve been confident in for a long time. People were quick to point out his rough start to the season, even labeling him as “overhyped”, but I as wrote a number of times in varying degrees of detail, the piggybacking system the Blue Jays implemented early in the year was holding him back. Once he was unleashed from those chains and restrictions, his potential was unveiled. In the 19 games he started, Syndergaard had a 1.47 ERA (1.66 FIP) and 0.89 WHIP to go along with a 10.17 K/9. He was scoffed at as a signability pick when the Blue Jays selected him in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft, but with just two years of professional development he’s proven to be a whole lot more than that; he’s on the verge of being one of the better pitching prospects in baseball.

Syndergaard isn’t too far off from what I believe to be the ideal pitching prospect, if there is such a thing. First and foremost, he has the size and build that is capable of throwing 200 to 220 innings year after year. Syndergaard stands 6-foot-5 with a broad and muscular upper body. His lower half is a step or two behind strength wise, and I think it would be wise for him to add ten to twenty pounds onto his listed weight of 200 over the offseason. Pitchers are one of the few positions in all of sports where a “big ass” is beneficial. Syndergaard takes full advantage of his height, utilizing a high 3/4 arm slot to create a steep downward plane on his pitches. His delivery is loose and easy, and he repeats his mechanics well. He’s also a Texan, which is something I’ve come to appreciate in baseball players. Syndergaard has a commanding presence and a fighter’s mindset both on the mound and off the field, always seeking out ways to improve his game.

His physical maturity has a direct correlation with the improvement of his stuff, as through his first few years of high school, Syndergaard was rail-thin and struggling to touch 90 miles per hour. Since adding mass, his fastball has risen three full grades, from fringe average to arguably plus-plus. Syndergaard’s four seam fastball sits in the 93-96 mph range with ease, and has shown the capability of touching 97, 98, and even 99 miles per hour when he reaches back for some extra juice. His two seam fastball is a notch behind in velocity, sitting in the low 90’s, but shows much better life. Syndergaard will bore the pitch in on the hands of right handed batters, and run it away from left handed hitters. He mixes and matches the two pitches well, which is important for a fastball-reliant pitcher like Syndergaard.

The rest of Syndergaard’s arsenal is still in the development stage. His primary breaking ball is a 12-6 curveball that he throws in the 78-82 mph range. He generates plenty of swings and misses, but has had trouble consistently finding tight movement. Syndergaard began to work in a slider as the season wore on, and the early signs are encouraging. Thrown in the mid-to-high 80’s, the pitch meshes well with his arm slot, as it has two-plane movement as opposed to the frisbee-like sliders thrown by pitchers with lower arm slots. Syndergaard’s fourth pitch is a circle changeup with arm side fade. It has nice drop when thrown in the low-to-mid 80’s, but can get a little firm when thrown any harder than that. The arm speed on the pitch is good, and he disguises it well when his two seam fastball is working.

Command remains elusive to Syndergaard, as he’s still mostly a control pitcher. For someone who only turned 20 at the end of August, that’s more than acceptable. His stuff has allowed him to get away with a lot of things early in his career, but High-A, where he’ll open the 2013 season, could be a different story. It’s one of the bigger jumps in the minor leagues, and Syndergaard will be receiving a full workload for the first time in his career. He’ll need to learn how to pitch when he doesn’t have his best stuff, which is a process every pitcher must go through. Even if there are a few bumps in the road this season, the strides he’ll make with command and pitchability will be huge for his career in the long run. Needless to say; I’m excited.

Question Mark

Aaron Sanchez – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
8-5, 90.1 IP, 64 H, 25 ER, 3 HR, 51 BB, 97 K
2.49 ERA (3.41 FIP), 1.27 WHIP, 9.66 K/9, 5.08 BB/9, 2.22 GO/AO

In terms of raw stuff, Aaron Sanchez is the top pitching prospect in the system, and one of the best in baseball. Unfortunately, there’s a lot more to pitching than just stuff (though it’s awesome to have), which is why, for me, Sanchez takes a back seat to Noah Syndergaard and falls into the Question Mark category. The former supplemental first round pick has two glaring issues that will determine how successful he can or will be in the future; durability and command – or lack thereof, and both problems were on display during the 2012 season. Sanchez dealt with forearm soreness during July, and while he only missed two weeks worth of games, that’s not something you want to see with a 20 year old. He also visibly tired as the season wore on as well, resulting in arm drag and poor command. In his 90.1 innings, he walked 51, hit seven batters, and threw six wild pitches.

The durability concerns are based upon his lanky frame, as at 6-foot-4, he weighs just 190 pounds. His limbs are long and lean, with lots of room for added mass all over. Of the Lansing (soon to be Dunedin) Three, the organization will definitely need to take it the slowest with Sanchez. His inning jump was the smallest, but he was clearly the most impacted, and anything beyond a 30-inning hike in 2013 could prove to be damaging in the long term. The mechanics are clean, as he’s balanced and smooth in the delivery, and follows through with very easy arm action from the 3/4 arm slot. His lack of strength in his lower half has a negative impact on the consistency of his mechanics, as once he begins to tire his pitching base weakens and his release point falls apart. When this happens, the command problems I mentioned above really begin to creep up.

The stuff truly is dynamite. Sanchez’ fastball is on the same level as Syndergaard’s, sitting in the 92-96 mph range and touching as high as 98 miles per hour. The pitch has natural sinking action, and can explode on hitters because of the deceptively easy action in his delivery. It’s already at least a plus caliber pitch, and with improved mechanics (leading to more consistent life) it should settle in as an easy plus-plus offering. His curveball is the best breaking ball in the system, with similar future grades to his fastball though it’s a step behind at present. Sanchez uses his long arms to generate a tight spin rotation on the pitch, giving it great depth and break. He does an excellent job of getting both called and swinging strikes in the zone, but he’s still learning how to make hitters chase down and in the dirt. Sanchez has continued to work on the changeup he really only began using at the professional level, and it’s still below average. He has good arm speed on the pitch which aids with deception, but he’s still trying to smooth out the fade required for swinging strikes.

The recurring theme is his lack of command, which is why he receives the Question Mark label for me. Sanchez can get the ball into the zone, sometimes, but even when he does, he has little feel for where the pitch is going. If he could more precisely locate his pitches, his stuff would play up so much better. A lot of his struggles in the second half came as the result of consistently poor location, as the only area he appeared capable of hitting was the upper part of the plate. Sanchez has the athleticism and baseball acumen to resolve these problems, but it’s most certainly going to be a process, and a slow one at that. Remain patient, because more so than any other player in the system, if Sanchez gets himself right, he has absolute superstar written all over him.

On the Rise

Roberto Osuna – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
2-0, 43.2 IP, 32 H, 11 ER, 2 HR, 15 BB, 49 K
2.27 ERA (2.79 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, 10.10 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, 1.08 GO/AO

Osuna delivers a pitch for the Vancouver Canadians (Image courtesy Battersbox.ca)

I’m not sure any Blue Jays prospect made a bigger splash during the 2012 season, so Osuna fits the On the Rise moniker perfectly. When Toronto signed the then-16 year old Osuna, he was pitching for the Diablos Rojos del Mexico in the Mexican League, which is a remarkable feat considering that many feel the league is roughly the equivalent of Triple-A baseball. He (or his rights-holding team, anyways) received a 1.5 million dollar signing bonus in July 2011, and Osuna was thrown right into the fire this past summer. Not only did he makes his debut stateside, he skipped the Gulf Coast League altogether, starting his career with Bluefield. After four starts and three relief appearances with the club, Osuna received a promotion to Low-A Vancouver where he finished the year with five starts. His Vancouver debut on July 28th, however, was the organization’s best start of the season; Osuna pitched five shutout innings, allowing just one hit and one walk, while striking out an incredible 13.

Despite no discernible physical development, Osuna’s stuff has taken a significant leap forward over the past year. His fastball has risen to the 91-94 mph range consistently, and Osuna has shown the ability to gear up for some 96 miles per hour heat when required. One of his greatest strengths is his fastball command, which is arguably the most important trait for a young pitcher to learn, and likely the main reason he’s been able to dominate hitters well above his age group. Furthermore, he’s already excelling in pitchability, as he adds and subtracts from his fastball to mess with timing and keep his opposition off balance.

He mixes and matches even further with a split-change that carries plus potential. The offspeed pitch is thrown in the 77-82 mph range, giving it excellent velocity separation while showing both break and deception as he maintains arm speed through the release. There’s isn’t a complete consensus on what Osuna throws for a breaking ball, as while some classify it as a curveball or slurve, others have labeled the pitch a slider because of the bite and two-plane movement. Whatever you want to call it, the pitch rounds out Osuna’s arsenal well, and could become above average as he’s already shown he’s comfortable throwing it in most counts and against both lefties and righties.

Osuna has a sturdy build at 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, which is why many have labeled him as lacking projection. While he’s unlikely to burst up another two inches and add 20 pounds, he’s proven over the past year that improvements in mechanics and baseball acumen can be far more important to development than just physical projection. Osuna has a legitimate mid-rotation starter ceiling, and the next step in the quest to reach that goal will be Lansing. It’s expected he’ll be on a tight leash innings-wise just like Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Nicolino were last season, but Osuna could reach the majors as a 20 year old if things unfold as the Blue Jays hope.

Dream on Me

Adonys Cardona – 2012 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
0-1, 15.2 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 1 HR, 10 BB, 20 K
6.32 ERA (3.58 FIP), 1.60 WHIP, 11.49 K/9, 5.74 BB/9, 1.25 GO/AO

Adonys Cardona warms up during Spring Training 2012 (Image via MLBProspectPortal.com)

When the Blue Jays signed Adonys Cardona as an International Free Agent in the summer of 2010, they gave him the largest bonus ever for a Venezuelan player; 2.8 million. That’s how highly the organization thought of the right hander, and why they remain high on him even after a derailed season. Cardona made his debut as a 17 year old in the summer of 2011, appearing in 10 games in the Gulf Coast League. He showed impressive stuff, racking up 35 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. In a bit of a surprise move, he was re-assigned there this past summer. There were rumors he was dealing with arm soreness in the spring, and those reports appear to have been actualized as he appeared in just eight games, totaling 15.2 innings. Even with the apparent setback, he’ll still be just 19 years old on Opening Day, and Cardona has more than enough raw talent to catch up to some of the more highly touted arms in the system.

Like nearly every potentially elite pitching prospect, Cardona is armed with a promising fastball. Over the past two years it’s risen from the 86-90 range up to the 90-95 mph range consistently. The fastball has good life and he commands it well given his age. One of the most promising aspects with Cardona’s fastball is the potential growth to come. He’s still a string bean at 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds, and while he doesn’t have the broadest of frames, there’s plenty of room for some physical maturity.

Cardona throws a curveball, but at present it’s struggling to be an average pitch. The offering has hard, late break, but it’s easy to pick up out of his hand, particularly when his release point is early. His overhand arm slot really benefits the vertical drop of the pitch, so if he can improve his mechanical consistency and match his release point to his fastball, the curveball could be above average. Cardona’s third pitch is a changeup that he’s shown surprising feel for. His quick and easy arm action really aids in the deception, as the pitch is difficult to distinguish from his fastball. Like most young pitchers, Cardona is still working on balancing firm and fade, as he will occasionally throw the changeup too hard. Control of the offspeed pitches hasn’t been as much of a problem as command, where Cardona is still below average.

Under normal circumstances, when a pitcher has two years of short season ball under his belt, you expect him to make the leap to a full season club in his third year. Unfortunately, that’s not going to be the case with Cardona. He’s fallen so far behind innings-wise that he definitely needs a third year in short season, though hopefully it will be with Bluefield or Vancouver. Once he gets back on track, health permitting, you can start thinking about Lansing in 2014, and so on. For now, the best course of action is the safe one, and that sees Cardona attempting to build his arm strength up to 40-50 innings in 2013.

The Bullpen Guy

Marcus Stroman – 2012 team(s): Low-A Vancouver, Double-A New Hampshire
3-0, 19.1 IP, 16 H, 7 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 23 K
3.26 ERA (2.89 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 10.71 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 1.92 GO/AO

Stroman pitching for the Orleans Firebirds in the Cape Cod League during the 2011 season (Image via JaysProspects.com)

The Blue Jays selected Marcus Stroman with the 22nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, which was quite a coup when you consider that Baseball America ranked him as the 10th best available talent. Teams likely shied away from the right hander for two related reasons: his size, and his undefined role. Stroman stands just 5-foot-9 while weighing 185 pounds, which is hardly the ideal body type for a pitcher. As such, even though he did work as a starter for Duke during his college days, most feel his future is in the bullpen. While serving as Team USA’s closer in the summer of 2011, he pitched 8.1 shutout innings, allowing no hits, just one walk, while striking out 17. Clearly, he’s comfortable in the role. Unfortunately for Stroman and the Blue Jays organization, he received a 50 game suspension late in the season for a “performance enhancing drug”, which cut his year short and will delay his debut in 2013.

Working in the bullpen, Stroman has two pitches that already grade as at least plus, which is why, among others, Keith Law of ESPN felt that he could have been pitching in games in Toronto this past September, suspension be damned. His fastball plays up in short bursts, as while he sat 92-94 mph in the rotation, he ramps up to the 93-96 mph range in the bullpen, while touching as high as 98 miles per hour. One of Stroman’s strongest traits is that despite his diminutive build, he maintains velocity extremely well. The fastball has impressive arm side run and sink, but he has more control than command of it at this point, leading him to occasionally catching too much of the plate.

Stroman’s highest rated offering is his slider, which was arguably the best breaking ball in the 2012 draft. It has excellent depth and sharp, hard biting break while clocking in the 82-84 mph range. It’s his go-to pitch, and for good reason, as he has excellent command of the slider and can throw it both in and out of the zone against both lefties and righties. Stroman has begun to throw a cutter more often, which at 86-90 mph is nice middle ground between his two best pitches. It bores in on the hands of left handed batters, while breaking away and out of the swing plane of right handed batters. He rounds out the arsenal with a solid, mid 80’s changeup that benefits from his quick arm action. It’s a little firm, as its vertical drop isn’t quite where you want it.

The starter versus reliever debate with Stroman will continue until the Blue Jays come out and share their intentions, which with this front office, isn’t likely to happen anytime soon. I think the bullpen role is the correct one, but unlike most people I don’t see him as a closer type. The effort in Stroman’s delivery could prevent him from ever throwing 200 innings in a season, but I can’t peg him in as a 60 inning guy either. I’d like to see the Blue Jays utilize him in a hybrid reliever role, where he’d receive the innings of a long man, but would pitch in high leverage scenarios. A team’s most dire situation is rarely with no outs in the ninth, and having a pitcher like Stroman capable of coming in during the 6th or 7th inning with runners on and shutting the opposition down for two or three frames would be incredibly valuable. It was a role many talked about with Tim Lincecum when he was drafted, and while he had an extremely high peak, the starting rotation has clearly worn him down at just 28.

Remember the Name

Alberto Tirado – 2012 team(s): GCL Blue Jays, Rookie-Bluefield
3-2, 48.0 IP, 32 H, 14 ER, 0 HR, 17 BB, 39 K
2.63 ERA (2.89 FIP), 1.02 WHIP, 7.31 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 1.35 GO/AO

Alberto Tirado (Image via BlueJays.scout.com)

The hype train has quickly picked up on this young Dominican, as he’s gone from under the radar prospect to the middle of the spotlight in just a few months. Tirado was signed as 16 year old during the 2011 International Free Agency period, and received a rather ho-hum bonus of just 300 thousand dollars. The Blue Jays clearly had their projection goggles on, however, as Tirado has long levers and a thin, athletic frame. His delivery is just as promising, as he uses his lower half well and his arm action is very loose and easy. Since signing, he’s continued to grow and add muscle, which has seen a noticeable augmentation in his stuff.

Previously struggling to register 91 on the gun, Tirado is now comfortably sitting between 91 and 94 miles per hour and commanding it well. He’s touched as high as 95 and 96, but consistent readings at that level may not come for another year or two. Coming in from a low 3/4 arm slot, the pitch has a bit of natural cutting action away from right handed batters. Tirado complements the fastball with a power slider that shows late break on two planes and serious depth. The slider has superseded a once promising curveball, a pitch the Blue Jays organization clearly feels is less conducive to success with his arm slot. He completes the arsenal with a changeup that is surprisingly advanced, and uses it to put away left handed batters.

Tirado finished his debut season with three starts for Bluefield, but the more important number is the 48 total innings he threw. Whether he starts with Bluefield or Vancouver next season, Tirado should be looked upon to consistently throw five innings or 70 pitches per outing in order to further build his arm strength and prepare for full season ball in 2014. If Tirado performs as well as we hope and expect next June and July, I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds himself in the Midwest League at some point in August.

Despite all this, those of us sitting comfortably in our temperature controlled offices, houses, and apartments expect the players to have consistently strong seasons from the beginning of April through to the end of August. In reality, it rarely happens. Hot streaks and cold streaks are the normality, with players hoping when all is said that the hot will outweigh the cold. Listed below are eight players. The first four are Blue Jays prospects who overcame the conditions and battled through the season, coming on at their strongest in the second half. The second group of Blue Jays prospects are those who got off to a hot start, but failed to carry it through to the end of the season.

The pre- and post-All Star designations are based upon the individual league that the prospects played in. For example, the Midwest League All Star break is in late June, while the Eastern League All Star break takes place in early July. For players who split the season between two minor league levels, the separation is from the level at which they were playing when they experienced the All Star break. As short season players have no first half, they’re omitted from consideration for this article.

Second Half Studs

The prospects with the best second half, with images courtesy the US Presswire, The Girl's Guide to the Blue Jays, Sports Road Trips, and Ward Perrin of Canada.com

RHP Noah Syndergaard (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 3-2, 43.2 IP, 44 H, 19 ER, 3 HR, 15 BB, 57 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.75 K/9
• Post All-Star: 5-3, 60.0 IP, 37 H, 11 ER, 0 HR, 16 BB, 65 K, 1.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.75 K/9

Noah Syndergaard opened the year pitching in tandem with Anthony DeSclafani. They alternated who started the game and who relieved, and as I wrote in detail months ago, Syndergaard didn’t handle pitching out of the bullpen very well whatsoever. As such, it’s no surprise that once he was freed from the clutches of relief work in the second half, his numbers really took off. His 65 post All-Star strikeouts were the third most in the Blue Jays system, behind Javier Avendano and Justin Nicolino, though both pitchers had a significant inning advantage. The word “overhyped” was starting to get thrown around in prospects circles when Syndergaard’s ERA was sitting around the 4.00 mark, but his downright filthy second half performance should cement his position as an elite pitching prospect. The jump from Single-A to High-A is significant, so Syndergaard will need to have a focused offseason if he hopes to have another dominant season for Dunedin – and possibly New Hampshire – in 2013.

3B Gustavo Pierre (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 52 AB, .135/.224/.250 (.474 OPS), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 6/16 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 226 AB, .279/.321/.451 (.772 OPS), 13 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 5 SB, 10/63 BB/K

Gustavo Pierre opened the 2011 season with Lansing, but after hitting .187/.244/.262 in 56 games while playing porous defense at shortstop, he was demoted down to Bluefield. He finished the year very strongly, but when assignments came this spring, Pierre’s was to extended spring training instead of full season ball. Thanks to injuries and the poor performance of another player on this list, however, he got a second chance with the Lugnuts at the end of May. The season quickly became reminiscent of 2011, as through his first 15 games he had an unsettling .474 OPS. The team stuck with him this time, and it paid off in the second half, as Pierre was one of the Lugnuts’ most consistent hitters in July and August. The decrease in stress from shifting down the defensive spectrum to third base likely helped substantially, as while the 20 year old is still extremely raw in the field, his body type is much better suited to the hot corner.

RHP Danny Barnes (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 17 SV, 27.2 IP, 28 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 28 K, 2.28 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.11 K/9
• Post All-Star: 17 SV, 23.2 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 35 K, 0.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 13.31 K/9

After a dominant full season debut with Lansing in 2011, I ranked Barnes as the Blue Jays’ 29th best prospect; not an insignificant honor for a relief pitcher in such a deep system. Things didn’t get off quite so well with Dunedin in the first half of 2012. Sure, the ERA was sexy and he was piling up saves, but the strikeout rate was well down from 2011 (13.50 K/9), and way too many runners were getting on base. The way he was pitching, an implosion seemed inevitable. Something happened around the All-Star break though, as in the second half of the season Barnes pitched like a man possessed. His strikeout rate returned to its previous level of dominance, and he allowed just 13 base runners in 22 games. Barnes’ stellar finish to the season guarantees a Double-A assignment next spring, with the major leagues a distinct possibility in the not so distant future.

3B Kellen Sweeney (Single-A Lansing, Low-A Vancouver)

• Pre All-Star: 117 AB, .188/.314/.222 (.536 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 21/27 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 268 AB, .220/.319/.347 (.666 OPS), 15 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 5 SB, 37/50 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney was the sleeper pick amongst many Blue Jays fans entering the 2012 season. He was a second round pick in the 2010 draft, but thanks to a late contract agreement and a serious wrist injury in 2011, he had appeared in just 27 games through his first two seasons. The team knew they needed to get the 20 year olds career moving in the right direction, so they handed him a bold Lansing assignment. It didn’t take long to realize Sweeney wasn’t ready, as he was simply awful through the first two months of the season. Gustavo Pierre took his roster spot, and Sweeney was sent to extended spring training to await short season ball. He has been significantly better with Vancouver in the second half, with his OPS improving each month from June through August. Sweeney should prepare himself for a second crack at the Midwest League next spring, because a lot will be riding on his performance.

Second Half Duds

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 285 AB, .256/.338/.439 (.777 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 10 SB, 26/61 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 204 AB, .240/.293/.343 (.636 OPS), 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 14 SB, 11/39 BB/K

Jake Marisnick had a very strong start to the season in High-A Dunedin. While the numbers were down compared to his breakout 2011 season with Lansing, he was still at or around the .800 OPS mark for much of his time in the Florida State League, which is quite an accomplishment. The FSL is a notoriously difficult place to hit, and Marisnick’s performance was accentuated by the painful-to-watch struggles of the corner outfielders to his left and right. Things went substantially downhill after a promotion to the Eastern League, as at times Marisnick looked completely overmatched. If not for a strong closing week, his second half OPS would have been below .600. He still has all the tools in the world and is looked upon very favorably in the scouting community, but he will have a chance at statistical redemption when he represents the Blue Jays in the Arizona Fall League later this year.

RHP Aaron Sanchez (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 6-0, 47.0 IP, 24 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 28 BB, 53 K, 0.77 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.15 K/9
• Post All-Star: 2-5, 43.1 IP, 40 H, 21 ER, 3 HR, 23 BB, 44 K, 4.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.14 K/9

Fluff pieces were aplenty about Aaron Sanchez in the first half, and I was guilty of more than a few. The above line makes it readily apparent why – he truly was filthy. The scouting reports were just as glowing, as scouts were more than willing to label Sanchez’ curveball as one of the best in minor league baseball. His 97 mph capable fastball is pretty nice, too. Control and command have always been the question with Sanchez, and they became a big problem in the second half, particularly on the command end. His walk rate remained similar, but the pitches entering the zone weren’t going exactly where he wanted. Instead of pounding down like he did in the first half (.156 opponents average, 2.76 GO/AO, 0 HR), his location drifted upwards, leading to a huge increase in hitability (.252 opponents average, 1.82 GO/AO, 3 HR). Sanchez’ failure to finish his pitches suggests this is a case of fatigue, as the right hander threw just 54.1 innings in 2011. While the second half numbers are disappointing, the experience should better prepare him for yet another workload increase next season.

RHP John Stilson (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 5-1, 76.1 IP, 75 H, 24 ER, 2 HR, 29 BB, 64 K, 2.83 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.55 K/9
• Post All-Star: 0-3, 28.0 IP, 35 H, 21 ER, 6 HR, 13 BB, 27 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 8.68 K/9

John Stilson was one of the biggest question marks in the farm system entering the season, and the Blue Jays’ handling of the right hander supplied few answers. Stilson suffered a serious shoulder injury in his final college season, and there were doubts he’d be able to start the year on time. He did, and the team pushed him right into the High-A rotation where he had an excellent first half. The strikeout rate was merely average, but for a player making his professional debut, the results were more than satisfactory. Stilson received a mid-June promotion to Double-A, where things quickly unraveled. The move to the bullpen at the beginning of August likely tied in to an innings cap, so perhaps the drop in performance was fatigue related. Stilson will return to New Hampshire to open 2013, and if the Blue Jays have any sense about them, it will be in a permanent relief role. It speaks volumes when a college pitcher struggles to reach the 100 inning plateau in the minor leagues.

LF Marcus Knecht (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 219 AB, .228/.328/.438 (.766 OPS), 16 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 31/72 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 233 AB, .193/.277/.343 (.620 OPS), 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB, 19/74 BB/K

A 3rd round pick in the 2010 draft, Marcus Knecht established himself on the prospect radar with a big season for Lansing in 2011, particularly for his combination of power (199 ISO) and plate discipline (12.7% walk rate). He joined the aforementioned Marisnick in Dunedin, with high expectations. Like Marisnick, Knecht had a solid albeit unspectacular first half. His batting average plummeted due to a soaring strikeout rate, but his power and plate discipline kept his overall batting line respectable. Things got worse in the second half, as not only did his contact rate take yet another step backwards, but his usually strong accessory statistics fell flat as well. The overall season line is rather unsightly, as Knecht was just barely able to keep his on base percentage above the .300 mark. While a Double-A assignment next spring isn’t out of the question, his second half was so poor that the Blue Jays might decide Knecht needs to prove himself capable of hitting High-A pitching for a couple of months.

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 0-0, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

On August 31st, Noah Syndergaard pitched the second best game of any Blue Jays minor leaguer this season, with the best being Roberto Osuna’s late July 13-strikeout gem. Facing South Bend for the fourth time this season, the hitters failed to take advantage of their extended looks, as just one out was recorded outside of the infield grass. The other 14 came by way of strikeout or ground out, a masterful performance from beginning to end. In total, Syndergaard allowed just one base runner, a first inning single by Tom Belza. The game finished off a fabulous second half of the season, as since the Midwest League All Star break in late June, Syndergaard has a microscopic 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Those who are thinking Aaron Sanchez is easily the top pitching prospect in the system may want to have a second look.

2. C Yan Gomes (LAS): 32 AB, .406/.444/.656 (1.100 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 3/7 BB/K

When Yan Gomes was called up to Toronto the first time, he had a number of big hits and really helped the team when it needed it most. The other call-ups, however, didn’t go nearly as smoothly. In total, Gomes produced a .165/.225/.316 batting line in 33 games for the big club, and often times the swings were just as ugly as the box score suggested. The minor leagues were a different story, as this week capped off a breakout season for the Brazilian. He had at least one hit in each of his eight games, and showed his usual extra base power with two doubles and two home runs. Gomes has done enough over the last two seasons to show he can hit upper level minor league pitching, the next step is proving he’s not just another quad-A player.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 1-0, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Sean Nolin has not received the credit due to him for his monster 2012 season. He had yet another dominant outing on August 30th, allowing just one run on three base runners in six innings while striking out seven, earning the win. While pitcher win/loss records are useless in terms of analysis, the outing pushed Nolin’s mark to 10-0 on the season, which certainly looks nice on paper. What’s ever better, however, is his 2.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Additionally, his peripheral values (9.59 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9) suggest he’s been pitching to his talent and not just getting lucky, leading to a very strong fielding independent pitching number of 2.77. Backing up that value is his 3.16 FIP from the 2011 season, indicating we have a very real prospect on our hands.

4. CF Jake Marisnick (NH): 37 AB, .351/.359/.595 (.924 OPS), 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 1/3 BB/K

Without a doubt, Jake Marisnick had the most disappointing season of any Blue Jays prospect. I ranked him as the second best in the system over the winter, and was certainly expecting more than the .719 OPS he produced between the Florida State League and Eastern League. At least he finished the season on a positive note, as after failing to appear on the hot sheet for two months, his late August performance earned him a spot on the final list of the year. Marisnick played in eight games this week, and had two base hits in six of them. The walks were down – as they were for his entire stay with the Fisher Cats – but he finally displayed some of the power that allowed him to bust onto the scene for the Lugnuts last season. With New Hampshire long eliminated from post season action, Marisnick can take some time and prepare himself for the Arizona Fall League, where the environment and his hitting ability should combine to produce some gaudy numbers.

5. SS Ryan Goins (NH): 29 AB, 10 H, .345/.441/.552 (.993 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 5/6 BB/K

At 24 years old Goins isn’t much of a prospect, but he’s done enough over the past two seasons to receive a mention when he has one of the best weeks of his career. He filled up the stat sheet, showing good plate discipline, solid power, and surprising speed – his three stolen bases this week alone bested his 2011 total of two. Goins’ slash lines over the past two seasons have been eerily similar, as in 2011 while playing for the D-Jays, he hit .284/.340/.404 (.745). This season, with New Hampshire, he concluded the year with a .289/.342/.403 (.745) line. He doesn’t have strong enough tools to play regularly in the major leagues, but with a strong 2013 season he might be able to carve out a niche as a Mike McCoy type player, either with Toronto or somewhere else.

6. 1B Mike McDade (LAS): 23 AB, .348/.464/.522 (.986 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 5/6 BB/K

Back and healthy after a trip to the disabled list earlier this month, McDade had a very strong week in limited playing time. Unlike the other hitters on the list who saw action in seven or eight games, McDade played in just six, but did enough in those games to earn the final spot on the final hot sheet of the season. He proved a couple of things with his 2012 performance; first, that he’s probably better than a lot of us gave him credit for, and second, that even with an uptick in performance he still doesn’t hit enough to be a major league first baseman. It’s a shame, as McDade has solid power, an average bat, and is strong defensively, but the rule of first basemen is harsh and unforgiving – and rightly so. If you’re dreaming on a first base prospect who might have an OPS upwards of .800 in his prime years, you’re probably doing the baseball thing wrong.

March 8, 2011; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop

There are certain decisions that teams and managers make that make you shake your head some times. It seems to me that for the second time since he’s been a Blue Jays player, Adeiny Hechavarria has been set up for failure by this organization. With little regard for how his mental state of mind, they’ve thrown him to the wolves, likely to send him down with a burst confidence level that may take a while to rebuild.

What am I talking about? First, it was the language. The Jays let Hechavarria down was when they failed to have a translator with him when he began his minors career with the Jays in HiA Dunedin. At the time, he was 21 years old and in a new country for the first time. He couldn’t speak the language of the land, and had to feel isolated. In baseball terms, the result was little interaction between a non-Spanish speaking coaching staff in Dunedin and Hechavarria. In plain English, he was left out to dry. After a .193/.217/.292 start over 167 PA, someone in the organization finally took note of it, spread the news, and got him promoted to AA, where the coaching staff did speak Spanish. The result? A much improved .273/.305/.360 line despite playing against better competition

The second instance of letting Hechavarria down just happened over the weekend. Having NEVER played 3B as a professional player, he was called up from AAA to play the position. While he didn’t make any errors on the day, he had to feel out of place playing in a new location he’d never seen, a new position he’d never played, and in a spot in the lineup (9th) that he rarely if ever hit from. Talk about setting a player up for failure. He struck out twice and walked once in his ABs on the day and didn’t look entirely lost over his last few ABs. But, in my estimation, leaving him at SS would have allowed him to concentrate a lot more on hitting and getting through the day at the plate instead of taking on the pressure of fielding the hot corner.  (more…)

Jun. 23, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton (10) during the fourth inning against Chicago Cubs at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-US PRESSWIRE

Justin Upton is on the trade block… again. During the 2010 offseason, news leaked that Arizona might be willing to part with their franchise cornerstone, and the baseball world tied itself in a knot trying to figure out where he was going and for what. The team obviously never received an offer they deemed fair, as they held on to Upton and he responded with a career best year, producing a 139 OPS+ and being worth 5.7 or 6.4 WAR, depending upon whether you prefer the Baseball Reference or Fangraphs calculation. As a 23 year old, he was named an All Star, won a Silver Slugger Award, and finished fourth in MVP voting. He was one of the most exciting and talented players in baseball.

Now, just past the midpoint of the 2012 season, Arizona is once again shopping their right fielder. His performance has fallen off substantially, hitting only .273/.353/.401 through 289 at-bats. With a .324 wOBA, 97 RC+, and 1.2 WAR, even the advanced metrics can’t find many positives from his season. In short, he’s been a roughly league average player. Upton’s struggles have carried over to the team, as Arizona entered the break with a 42-43 record, four games back of the first place Dodgers. Just last year the Diamondbacks won 94 games to take the NL West – the second place Giants were eight games back – and despite a similar roster they haven’t been able to find their groove.

Back in June, the Diamondbacks managing partner Ken Kendrick had some harsh words for Upton, saying:

“He’s certainly not the Justin Upton that he has been in the past and that we would expect of him,” Kendrick said. “He’s 24 years old and it’s time for him to be a consistent performer and right now this year he’s not been that.”

It’s not common for an owner to call out any players, let alone his star player, and for good reason. Such comments can create a divide in the locker room, and come contract negotiation time, players won’t forget being publicly embarrassed. Imagine how things would have gone if the Rogers conglomerate had come out in late April and said Jose Bautista isn’t doing enough, despite literally carrying the team on his back last season. The fan backlash would have been palpable, and trade demands would have likely hit the airwaves shortly thereafter. Thankfully, nothing stupid was said, and as Jose always does, he rediscovered his stroke and is beating down the world one fastball at a time.

Back to Upton, if Arizona is foolish enough to make their franchise player available, you have to imagine the Blue Jays would be (or have been) one of the first to make a call. Upton is exactly the type of player Alex Anthopolous covets; young, athletic, dynamic, and under control (through 2015). The salary is not inconsequential, as over the final three years of the deal, Upton will earn 38.5 million, plus the remainder of this year’s 6.75 million. Given the team’s reluctance to hand elite free agents more than five years, the front office should be more than able to swallow three years at a high (but reasonable) salary.

Thanks to the Arizona beat reporters –- namely Nick Piecoro -– we at least have some idea what Kevin Towers, the Diamondbacks general manager, might be seeking in trade. Piecoro suggests the team is looking for a third baseman, shortstop, or top of the rotation starter. The first two requests make a ton of sense for Arizona. Between Ryan Roberts (258 PA), Cody Ransom (58 PA), Josh Bell (56 PA), and Geoff Blum (23 PA), the Diamondbacks have received a grand total of 0.0 WAR from their third basemen. At shortstop the team has Stephen Drew, but he only just returned from a long trip on the disabled list, and has free agency firmly in his sights. As a Scott Boras client there’s little doubt he’s going to test the waters, and recent comments made by the team suggest they’re not overly enthusiastic about bringing him back.

Despite possibly shipping their starting right fielder, outfield isn’t a pressing concern for the Diamondbacks. Between Chris Young, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel, and top prospects A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton, the team could fill the void for the at least remainder of the year, before re-evaluating the position in the offseason. The top of the rotation starter request is a little less obvious, as despite losing Daniel Hudson to Tommy John surgery this week, they still have a strong core in Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Wade Miley. The team’s top prospect Trevor Bauer recently joined the staff, and Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, and Andrew Chafin are continuing to develop in the minor leagues while all possessing big ceilings. Their desire for a pitcher is likely due to the old adage “You can never have enough pitching”, and given the ridiculous amount of arm injuries to strike baseball this year, it’s hard to fault them in that regard.

With all that being said, what do the Blue Jays have to offer? Third base is basically a non starter, as despite Justin Upton’s immense ability, there is literally a 0% chance Alex Anthopolous would include Brett Lawrie in a deal. In terms of talent, salary, and public relations, he’s far too valuable to this team. At shortstop, however, there appears to be a match. Adeiny Hechavarria is performing extremely well in Triple-A this year, and the Diamondbacks are said to be a fan of his abilities. Like Toronto, Arizona has their Triple-A affiliate in the Pacific Coast League, so they’re well aware of the environment and the effect it can have on hitters and pitchers respectively.

Adeiny Hechavarria at bat with the Las Vegas 51s. BRENDAN KENNEDY / TORONTO STAR

In addition to Hechavarria, the Blue Jays have plenty of pitchers with top of the rotation potential for Arizona to look at. From the Lansing trio, the Diamondbacks would likely be focused on Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez, as both have clearly taken a step ahead of the left handed Justin Nicolino. Down in Bluefield, Daniel Norris and Kevin Comer might interest them, but their proximity (or lack thereof) to the major leagues might be a debilitating factor.

Hechavarria and a pitcher would obviously be insufficient to peel Upton away, so the Blue Jays would need to add more. As much as it hurts, that likely starts with one of the elite centerfield prospects, Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick. They would likely favor Marisnick as he’s roughly a year and a half away, and as I mentioned, Arizona’s outfield need isn’t immediate. Gose should be ready within the next couple of months, and while he’s an elite defender, Arizona already has one of those in Chris Young. Both Young and Gose would lose a lot of value if shifted to a corner, so for the Diamondbacks, Marisnick is the more logical choice.

To round out the package, I’d offer Yan Gomes. He’s not in the Blue Jays top 30 prospects, but he could give Arizona some much needed offense from third base. Additionally, in the National League, his ability to play catcher, first base, and even some left field would be a huge positive. The Diamondbacks would like to contend again in 2013, and Gomes’ offensive spark and defensive versatility could fill a huge hole on their team until Matt Davidson, the team’s top third base prospect, is ready.

Would Jake Marisnick, Noah Syndergaard (or Aaron Sanchez), Adeiny Hechavarria, and Yan Gomes get the deal done with Arizona? Is it too much for the team to give up? The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks match up well, and I think an offer like this would be one of the best Arizona would receive. In addition to developing players for your own team, the other purpose of a farm system is to use in trade to acquire elite big league talent. As a prospect guy, losing these players would hurt, but for a player like Justin Upton, I’d make the deal. What do you think?

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 2-0, 11 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

Since mid-June, no one in the Blue Jays system has pitched better than Noah Syndergaard. Across his last five appearances – including two games this week – Syndergaard has allowed just 3 runs 25 innings, while striking out 29. He’s kept base runners to a minimum as well, with only 15 hits and 5 walks allowed. On July 8th he pitched 6 complete innings, which was a new career high for the big Texas right hander. After some early season inconsistency there was a lot of talk that Syndergaard had become overhyped and simply wasn’t as good as advertised, but the fact he’s been pitching at his best while finally getting stretched out with a starter’s workload speaks volumes about his true talent level. His switch from a curveball to a slider coincides with this incredible hot streak, and with such a powerful arm and 3/4 delivery the breaking ball does appear to suit him better. Syndergaard’s 80 strikeouts rank 5th in the Midwest League despite his inning total being between 15 and 35 lower than all the pitchers ahead and immediately behind him. He is a very real pitching prospect folks.

2. 2B Christian Lopes (BLU): 20 AB, .450/.476/.750 (1.226 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 1/4 BB/K

Lopes ranks on the hot sheet for the second time in three weeks thanks to a continual display of impressive power for a middle infielder. A thin Bluefield schedule limited him to five games this week, but he took full advantage of his playing time with four multi-hit efforts, each of which included one extra base hit. He completely filled up the stat sheet, with the aforementioned doubles and home run being complemented by a walk and a pair of stolen bases, his first two of the year. With Hechavarria not long for the minor leagues and Dickie Thon struggling badly over the past two years, Lopes could soon be in the discussion for Toronto’s top middle infield prospect.

3. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 27 AB, .407/.484/.704 (1.188 OPS), 0 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Anyone who is still simply attributing Hechavarria’s success to Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League is missing out on some legitimate and exciting development. Hechavarria played in seven games this week, and much like Christian Lopes down in Bluefield, he put up a nice variety of numbers across the board. His week was highlighted by his June 2nd game against Reno, as he went 3-for-5 with a pair of solo home runs. The season line is now up to .317/.367/.449, and while that obviously won’t translate to Toronto, it really doesn’t need to given his defensive proficiency. His .281/.326/.409 road slash line is probably a more accurate representation of his talent level at this point, and is a significant improvement upon the .687 OPS he produced last year in Double-A. If Hechavarria can generate a .700 OPS while hitting 9th in a major league lineup, he has boatloads of value.

4. LF Chris Hawkins (LAN): 28 AB, .464/.545/.607 (1.152 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 5/2 BB/K

Hawkins soared in April (.313 average, .767 OPS) and May (.327 average, .762 OPS), but completely fell apart in the month of June. He managed to hit only .160, and as a batting average dependent offensive player, his OPS plummeted to .437 for the month. After Jon Berti received a well deserved promotion to Dunedin, it appears as though Hawkins realized he need to shoulder the offensive load for the Lugnuts, as he came on extremely strong this week, including a pair of 4-for-4 games on the 6th and 8th. Hawkins produced a 174 ISO with Bluefield last season, and while the Midwest League is arguably the hardest place in all of minor league baseball to hit, his measly 76 ISO this season has been a gargantuan disappointment. It’s hard to argue his prospect stock has taken a bit of a hit this year.

5. C Yan Gomes (LAS): 23 AB, .304/.385/.739 (1.124 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, 3/3 BB/K

Gomes remains on fire as the trade deadline approaches, ranking on his second consecutive prospect hot sheet. He showed a lot of offensive diversification, with plenty of power, a trio of walks, and even a pair of stolen bases, tripling his season total. He’s actually hit better away from the friendly confines of Cashman Field, so prospective teams looking to find an offensive oriented catcher/third baseman can at least partially believe in the numbers he’s produced this year. If he remains within the organization, he could become a very valuable bench player for the Blue Jays. His catching background would allow the Blue Jays to play both Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia in the lineup at the same time, acting as a viable alternative should one of them suffer an injury during game action.

6. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 19 AB, .316/.409/.737 (1.146 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, 3/4 BB/K

The 2012 season has been a colossal disappointment for Sweeney, who I thought was poised for a breakout year after an injury riddled 2011. Sweeney opened the year with Single-A Lansing but was completely overmatched, hitting .179/.297/.207 in 43 games. The team pulled him back to extended spring training, where he worked at the complex until being assigned to Vancouver in mid-June. Sweeney started off just as poorly, with a .130/.311/.196 line in 14 June games, but has picked things up significantly here in July. His two home runs this week were his first since way back in August of 2010, and he’s continued to show his usual incredible plate discipline. I really hope this is a sign of things to come, as I’ve always felt Sweeney has far more talent than his statistics have suggested.

Honorable mention: Carlos Perez (LAN), Roberto Osuna (BLU), Santiago Nessy (BLU), Aaron Sanchez (LAN), Deck McGuire (NH), John Stilson (NH)

1. CF Dalton Pompey (VAN): 20 AB, .350/.500/.550 (1.050 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 6/4 BB/K

From the Vancouver Sun: Canadians centre-fielder Dalton Pompey fondly recalls watching Blue Jays such as Carlos Delgado play at the Rogers Centre. Photograph by: Les Bazso, PNG

When the short season rosters were announced earlier this month, it quickly became clear that Vancouver drew the short straw in terms of quality of prospects. While Bluefield and the Gulf Coast Blue Jays each have a dozen or more legitimate talents, you can count the number of Vancouver’s high ceiling prospects on one hand. A 2010 draft pick out of a Mississauga high school, Dalton Pompey may be the Canadians’ best. Pompey has been hitting out of the two-hole, and has acted as the team catalyst and table setter. He reached base 13 times in seven games, one of which was a pinch running appearance. Of those 13 times on base, Pompey scored seven runs, and while a lot of that must be attributed to his teammates, that’s exceptional efficiency.

2. RHP Joe Musgrove (BLU): 0-0, 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Bluefield has quickly become Lansing south, as they boast yet another pitching staff capable of making scouts drool. Musgrove may not have the depth of arsenal or pure ceiling of Daniel Norris or Kevin Comer, but it can’t be argued he’s the most polished and physically mature (6’5”, 230 lbs). Musgrove features a heavy sinking fastball, and he used it to perfection this week. Of his 24 outs recorded across two games, 19 came by way of the strikeout or groundout. That’s precisely the type of production you want to see from a pitching prospect. Similar to the Lansing group, the Bluefield starters have been pitching in tandem, with Musgrove’s partner being the team’s top pitching prospect, Daniel Norris.

3. CF Anthony Gose (LAS): 21 AB, .333/.461/.571 (1.032 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 SB, 5/7 BB/K

Gose finished the week with an 0-for-5 with four strikeouts on Saturday and a day off on Sunday, which isn’t exactly ideal for placement on the prospect hot sheet. Regardless, he did enough in his previous four games to earn a spot. After nearly two weeks without a stolen base attempt – whether the team dictated it or he was sore I couldn’t tell you – Gose finally got back on track this week, going a perfect 3-for-3. His performance at the plate was very well rounded, as in addition to the impressive .333 average, he went for extra bases on four of his seven hits, and drew five walks against seven strikeouts. Unfortunately for Gose, Colby Rasmus has center field in Toronto completely locked down.

4. CF Jake Marisnick (DUN): 22 AB, .318/.444/.545 (.989 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB, 5/4 BB/K

It’s been a disappointing season for Marisnick, who I ranked as the second best prospect in the system entering the year. Matters were compounded when he was forced to the disabled list with a minor injury, forcing him to miss roughly two weeks worth of games in May. Coming out of the FSL All Star break, he’s turned things around, including three straight multi hit efforts from Wednesday through Friday. Both his ISO and walk rate have remained nearly constant from his breakout 2011 season, so despite a deflated batting average, his year as a whole hasn’t been too bad.

5. 2B Christian Lopes (BLU): 17 AB, .294/.369/.882 (1.251 OPS), 0 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 2/5 BB/K

As a member of the Bluefield Blue Jays, Lopes finally made his long awaited professional debut this week, and he did not disappoint. He was only a 7th round pick in the 2011 draft, but his well above slot $800,000 signing bonus is much more indicative of his talent level. As a shortstop turned second baseman, he wasn’t drafted for his glove, he was selected because he can be an offensive force up the middle of the diamond, which he gave fans a taste of this week. In four starts and one pinch hit appearance, Lopes totaled only five hits, but four of them went for extra bases – two triples, two home runs. The result was a very slugging-heavy line, but it’s hard to deny a 1.251 OPS a spot among the system’s hottest prospects. He narrowly edged out teammate Art Charles, who had a similar offensive line, with defensive position giving Lopes the edge.

6. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 0-0, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

I wrote an article detailing how Syndergaard had been masterful in the rotation and awful in the bullpen, so it should come as a surprise to no one that in his first five inning start of the year, he had his best performance. 12 of his 15 recorded outs came by way of the strikeout or groundout, which as I mentioned with Musgrove, is an outstanding ratio to see from an elite pitching prospect. There are still rumblings that he’s overly reliant on his fastball due to an inconsistent curveball that only flashes, but if he’s finding this success working almost exclusively off one pitch, in my mind, that makes the performance even more impressive. If/when he can get his curveball to consistently solid-average, he could be a monster.

Honorable mention: Art Charles (BLU), Travis d’Arnaud (LAS), David Rollins (LAN), Chad Jenkins (NH), Asher Wojciechowski (DUN)