While I’m not going to try and predict which order Kyle will have the names, but the theme, so far, has Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard as the two top arms in the system, Roberto Osuna making the largest jump (to fourth on both the tagged lists above), and Daniel Norris highly rated despite his ugly 2012 counting stats.

Sanchez and Syndergaard were part of the much ballyhooed piggy backing system put in place for the first half of Lansing’s season in an effort to manage their innings.  With both moving to Dunedin (and hopefully eventually New Hampshire) in 2013, I thought it was worth a post attempting to predict who would take the Lansing 3′s place next season.

(as an aside, I haven’t written anything on The Trade, because I can’t make up my mind how I feel about it.  One thing I am quite sure of though, is the fact that Justin Nicolino, the third member of the Lasing 3,  will be the most valuable major leaguer of the four prospects given up in the deal.  I don’t think Blue Jays fans will have to wait long, 2014 maybe, before we get to see what we’re missing)

Below is a table of last year’s piggy backers and their innings jump from 2011:

* Missed time through injury, limiting his 2012 innings somewhat

** From University of Florida

*** Traded to Miami Marlins

I was admittedly surprised by the big 3′s lack of movement last year, but it is obviously an organizational philosophy for the Jays to build up the arm strength of their teenage pitchers at one level.  As the first stop for full season ball, Lansing are the beneficiaries of this thinking.  Now that Sanchez and Syndergaard (we’ll disregard the two new Miami Marlins) are both in their twenties, there is a very real chance we see them pitch over at least two levels, possibly even three, in 2013.

So, with the Jays theory of arm preservation (let’s hope it works out better in the future) in mind, who is destined for a full season with the Lugnuts in 2013?

I think, with a fair amount of confidence, the first name we can put on the list is Roberto Osuna.  In 2011, over two levels, Osuna

Roberto Osuna winds and fires for the C’s. Photo courtesy of the Vancouver Sun vancouversun.com

struck out more than 25% of the hitters he faced while maintaining a WHIP close to 1.  He is ready for the challenge that the Midwest League will present.  Osuna could possibly test the rigidity of Toronto’s development curve if he pitches well in 2013.  As he will only be eighteen in February, if he were a North American high school player, this is technically his draft year.  Meaning he would probably be starting out with the Gulf Coast Jays.  Instead, he is entering his third season of pro ball.  If he dominates at A ball, the Jays would be hard pressed to keep him there until he turns twenty.  I’ve written about this before, so won’t delve too deeply into it again, but as both Hulet and Sickels agree, Osuna is physically very mature for his age.  Provided there are no arm issues next season, I think the Jays will stray from their comfort zone and look to have him begin in Dunedin during his aged nineteen season.

The second name I have on Lansing’s team sheet is Daniel Norris.  A highly regarded prep arm, some even suggested that Norris should begin his first year of pro ball in Lansing.  That didn’t happen.  And, unfortunately, the expected dominance of rookie ball didn’t materialize either.  Despite the unpleasantness of the 2012 statistics, Norris did flash a plus fastball.  Listening to one of his Vancouver starts, it was the control of his breaking pitches that let him down.  Hitters were able to sit fastball and even at the lower levels, they generally won’t miss if they know what is coming.  Obviously, this issue becomes more pronounced the further up the ladder you climb, but if he shows a better feel for his changeup and curve in spring training I believe he’ll be given the chance at full season ball.

As my further picks are a bit conservative, we’ll begin with the table:

Taylor Cole looks out of place age wise but after taking two years out of baseball to complete a church mission, he is effectively 21 in ‘baseball years’.  Next season will be his third in pro ball and after jumping innings from 33.2 in ’11 to 66.1 as per above, he falls into the category of someone that should piggy back to ensure he completes a full season.  His peripherals in Vancouver were excellent last season, putting up a .80 WHIP, 0.0 HR/9, and 3.35 SO/BB.  After touching the low 90s with his fastball in high school, he now sits in the upper 80s.  Something that will need to improve as he moves up the ladder.  Right now, he relies on pinpoint control.

Deivy Estrada is probably the one I’m the least confident about and I could have easily slotted in Jeremy Gabryszwski here but I went for the experience factor.  Estrada is about half a year older than JG and will be entering his fifth year of pro ball.  Averaging right around 50 innings per year it is time for him to step up to the 80 to 90 range to see if a starting role is his future.  He did get knocked around a bit in the Appalachian league last year, but his FIP was below his ERA and BABIP was high-ish so Jays management may look past the stats to see what he can do.

Javier Avendano is a bit of a wild card in that he threw over one hundred innings last season.  He could go one of two ways next season.  Either be a starter right off that bat, without a piggy backing partner.  Or, he could piggy back with either Osuna or Norris.  He would effectively be the long man in that relationship, throwing five or six innings to his partners three.  Either way, his 2012 season with Vancouver has earned him a shot at A ball in 2013.

I would have loved to include highly rated prospects such as Alberto Tirado and Matt Smoral on this list, but I think the Jays inherent protectiveness of their younger arms ensures that these guys begin the year in Bluefield.  Tirado, like Osuna, is a 17 year old international free agent.  Unlink Osuna, however, he still has a lot of growing to do, so he will be wrapped in cotton wool while his physical development continues.

Smoral probably has the physical tools to start in Lansing, but after having missed all of 2012 to a foot injury, his innings will be capped in the upcoming season.  I do believe he will move up a level or two, provided he pitches well of course, but it won’t be until 2014 when we see him in full season ball.  As he will be only twenty in two years, he has the time to recover from the injury at his own pace.

At the end of the day, I don’t believe I’ve ever predicted with 100% accuracy what the Jays management are going to, but any way you slice it, a small town in central Michigan is, once again, going to be privy to some exciting pitching prospects.

Apr 1, 2011; Toronto, ON, Canada; Two new banners are displayed above the scoreboard to honor Hall of Fame inductees former general manager Pat Gillick (not pictured) and second baseman Roberto Alomar (not pictured) before the Toronto Blue Jays game against the Minnesota Twins at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Twins 13-3. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

The only man in the history of this organization who had the temerity (darn pg-13) to change the face and culture of the team. Remember when we referred to Pat Gillick as “Stand Pat”? Then he traded an all-star shortstop and power hitting first basman for our so far only hall of famer and the man who hit the biggest home run in the history of our franchise. That deal launched the Jays into bona fide contenders for a world championship. This is the deal in which AA has truly turned the face of the franchise from “future” to “now”. This is the deal that should shut the naysayers up about our lack of moves, Rogers being tight-fisted with the money, our perceived lack of direction.

Did we give up too much future for the present? I applaud AA for dipping into our bountiful plethora of prospects to do this deal. There are 4 potential all-stars heading over there. That had to be tough when they are “your guys”. One of the pitchers we are getting has a history of injury almost on par with his excellence on the mound. How will Reyes work out on turf?

All these questions and more will swirl in the minds of die-hard and fair weather fans alike. Perk up the banal fodder of conversation around the water cooler. Something to truly seize the sporting landscape and drawing in more fans just for the immensity and breadth of this deal. It is a deal that will be talked about for the rest of the history of the Blue Jays franchise…for better or worse. This is no guarantee folks but it is as close to going all in as a GM can get.

This is the final push we have been pining for since Gord Ash. Alex took his time, checked the landscape and came up with this whopper. We waited over a year and a half for Gillick to pull the trigger…we waited longer for this powder keg to explode. In time I will break this down but for now I just want to revel in the moment. That sense of history that this potentially could be. With another tweak (Lind + Catcher for Left Fielder maybe?) and better luck from the injury gods this could truly be a World Series calibre team.

I know when I see a young failing sapling I will think about our new starting five and the hall of fame shortstop that I will have the pleasure to watch going forward…oh and McDonald’s coffee…yummy.

On the hitting side, SCOUT reads like a version of wRC+ yet using only home run, walk, and k rates.  I did expect to see Kevin Pillar on the list, considering he was not only the Midwest League MVP, but for those sabermetricians out there, was also second in the league in wRC+.  I’m trying to compare the numbers between those on the list and Kevin and have to admit, am not sure exactly why he didn’t get in.  He has a lowish walk percentage and didn’t hit a ton of home runs.  But still, I don’t have the exact calculations, will hopefully add as a postscript.

Fangraphs then remakes their list with players who are twenty-one and under, explaining that relative to A-ball would still be considered as prospects.   With Pillar an old twenty three, he would have been considered a non-prospect in relation to the league.

Things are more positive for the Lugnut pitchers as both Noah Syndergaard (sixth) and Justin Nicolino(ninth) rank in the top 10

Justin Nicolino photo courtesy of baseballinstinct.com

of those that started over half  of their appearances. This was too be expected after the excellent seasons posted by two of the three members of the ‘Lansing Big Three’.  Aaron Sanchez struggled with his command, especially after coming back from his injury, posting a 5.08 BB/9 which would have kept him off the list.

There was also a true top ten which included both relievers and starters.  Only two players made both, and both are ranked very highly by those that do prospect rankings.  Depressingly one of them, Dylan Bundy, is in the Orioles organization.  So, while Blue Jays fans, myself included, look wistfully to the future, Orioles fans are:

1) dreaming, realistically, of a wild card spot

2) watching Baseball America’s pre-2012 11th rated prospect Manny Machado put up reasonable numbers in thirty-six games as a twenty year old in the major leagues (this while the Jays top rated shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria puts up a negative WAR in a fairly similar sample size, and our starting shortstop uses his face as a sandwich board for hate messages)

3) following Baseball America’s pre-2012 10th rated prospect Dylan Bundy, as he blows through 3 minor league levels at age 19.  There is a very real chance he is given a late season call-up next year.

Will Blue Jays fans see any of the Lansing Big 3?  No.  When does 2014 start?

(as the first post-script, in relation to the sandwich board comment above.  Yunel Escobar’s press conference went off as expected.  It was a ‘joke’ that wasn’t intended to cause any harm.  That’s pretty much the explanation that was expected.  Still doesn’t make it right.  Both from Yunel, who is obviously very naive if he honestly thought putting something like that on his face wouldn’t be construed, at least by some quarters, as being offensive.  I’m guessing he isn’t so naive, and he made a very stupid mistake, and is now looking to get out of it as best he can.  And from the Blue Jays players and staff who didn’t stop Yunel from taking the field with the offensive messages.  I don’t believe it is within John Farrel’s remit to baby-sit all his players and do uniform checks before they all take the field, but someone, anyone should have spotted the messages and stopped him.)

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Dunedin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

The alarming splits I mentioned were the pitcher’s respective starter versus reliever numbers, and they’ve only become worse since I wrote that article. Including his most recent game on June 8th, Syndergaard has produced like the elite pitching prospect he is while starting, with a 0.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. When coming out of the bullpen, however, he has pitched like an on-the-verge-of-release non-prospect, with a 9.00 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. The reverse is true with his partner Anthony DeSclafani, and all of the astonishing numbers can be viewed in the table below.

The starter versus reliever splits for Noah Syndergaard and Anthony DeSclafani

I had been monitoring these splits for some time, but given the sample size and the fact I haven’t been able to actually see the pitchers in person, I decided to hold back on writing the article. This changed last week, when Curt Rallo released a feature piece about Noah Syndergaard on MiLB.com. Hidden in the final paragraph were a couple of quotes that drew my attention and confirmed my suspicions.

It’s kind of frustrating, but at the same time, I know there’s a goal, there’s a plan that the Blue Jays have for me,” Syndergaard said of alternating starts and relief outings. “I’m OK with it, but I definitely feel more comfortable starting. I still haven’t figured out the relieving role. It would be a lot easier to acclimate to my routine if I was a starter every five days. The first few relief appearances, it was tough to get my arm loose, but I feel that I have a set routine going and get my arm loose.

It makes sense, when you really think about it. Noah Syndergaard is a very large man that stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 200-plus pounds. He’s been a starter for his entire pitching career, and it probably takes a while for him to get that big body loose. When working in relief, you warm up with the rest of your team during pregame, but then sit around for an hour or two before it’s your turn to come in and pitch, at which point you have five to ten minutes to get yourself ready. The starting pitcher has a vastly different routine, as over the course of nearly an hour he’ll stretch, play catch, long toss, throw in the bullpen, and then finally warm up on the mound.

I asked Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, the Lugnuts primary radio announcer, whether he saw any noticeable differences, velocity or otherwise, when Syndergaard was starting versus relieving. He didn’t believe there were any velocity variations, but noted that Syndergaard often appeared off rhythm during his relief appearances. Jesse described how he would be breezing through the outing, but once he got in trouble, things would pile up, making him very susceptible to big innings. From my perspective, that sounds like someone who can’t find a good feel for their pitches.

As I mentioned earlier, the reverse is true for Syndergaard’s partner, 2011 draft pick Anthony DeSclafani. With the University of Florida, DeSclafani pitched almost exclusively in relief over his sophomore and junior seasons, totaling 39 relief appearances against only eight starts. His fastball/slider combination is much more suited to the bullpen, and with the seemingly endless amount of starting pitching depth ahead of him, one has to seriously doubt DeSclafani’s future is long for the rotation.

So we have two pitchers –- one a long-term starter, the other a long-term reliever -– both of whom are struggling in their opposite roles. At what point does the Blue Jays front office put the kibosh on this experiment? I have little doubt that they are aware of these shocking splits, likely even more so with Syndergaard’s recent comments. I do understand wanting to have DeSclafani throw starter innings, as it builds arm strength and allows him to develop his secondary pitches at an advanced rate. The question is, why not have Syndergaard start every turn, and have DeSclafani finish his games? Both would remain in the roles they find most comfortable, and both would receive the necessary innings to progress development. There’s a point at which simply ignoring a problem becomes negligence, and while I’m sure the Blue Jays have the absolute best intentions behind this arrangement, I’m beginning to wonder whether this “learning exercise” has become more of a problem than a solution.

Wins/Losses: 32-27 | Streak: L3 | 3rd in PCL Pacific South division (6.0 GB)

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Reno Aces 8, Las Vegas 51s 1 – LP: Richmond (5-4, 5.84)

The 51s’ offense managed just six singles and the Aces scored seven unanswered runs as Las Vegas dropped their third consecutive game to Reno 8-1 on Tuesday night at Cashman Field.

Hitting:

Adeiny Hechavarria and Vladimir Guerrero hit back-to-back, one-out singles in the bottom of the first and both advanced into scoring position on a fielding error, but the 51s were only able to score the one run, on an Adam Lind groundout. After that, their only other opportunity to plate a run came with runners on first and second with two outs in the bottom of the fourth inning.

After joining the 51s over the weekend from Advanced-A Dunedin, Guerrero went 3-for-17 (.176) with one double (but only one strikeout) in his first four Triple-A games of the season, while Lind, is hitting .415 (17-for-41) in his last 10 games but has just one extra-base hit — a double back on May 30 — over that span.

Pitching:

51s starter Scott Richmond lasted just four innings, giving up six runs (five earned) on 10 hits with one walk and three strikeouts. Richmond had a tough time getting out of the first inning, as a pair of two-out singles around an Adam Lind fielding error led to an unearned run, and a wild pitch on a swinging strikeout loaded the bases to continue the frame. What ultimately hurt Richmond, though, was a four-run second, where the first five batters all reached base via three singles, a walk and a double. He retired three of his next four batters to end the inning, but the damage was already done.

Clint Everts, making his third appearance since being assigned to the 51s from Double-A New Hampshire on May 27, gave up one unearned run and allowed three hits in two innings. After a fielding error by 51s left fielder Ricardo Nanita led to the run in the fifth inning, Everts benefited from a great play by his catcher, Travis d’Arnaud, to throw out Reno second baseman Taylor Harbin trying to steal second base. Left-hander Bill Murphy mopped up the game’s final three innings, allowing just one run on one hit that scored on two ground outs in the top of the ninth.

Wins/Losses: 21-35 | Streak: L2 | 6th in EAS Eastern division (11.0 GB)

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Richmond Flying Squirrels 1, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 0 – LP: Pino (1-3, 3.28)

Starter Joel Carreno‘s strong outing wasn’t enough, as the Fisher Cats’ bats fell silent to hand them a 1-0 loss to the Richmond Flying Squirrels on Tuesday night at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium.

Hitting:

Just like Triple-A Las Vegas, all of New Hampshire’s hits were singles. Mike McDade and Brian Bocock each went 1-for-3 and drew a walk, though Bocock was caught stealing for the first time this season in the  bottom of the third. The Fisher Cats’ only scoring chance came in the first inning, when Ryan Goins and McDade roped back-to-back, two-out singles but catcher Sean Ochinko grounded into a force out.

After drawing a walk in the third and another in the fourth, New Hampshire didn’t have another baserunner until Bocock’s leadoff single in the bottom of the ninth, which was wasted after a foul bunt strikeout and a double play ended the game.

Pitching:

Carreno was handed the hard-luck loss despite pitching his best game of the season, where he scattered just two hits over a season-high seven innings. Unfortunately one of those hits was a two-out solo home run in the third inning, but apart from that, Carreno faced the minimum amount of batters. He did not issue a walk for the first time in five Double-A starts this season, and out of his six strikeouts, five were of the swinging variety. Right-hander Scott Gracey kept it a 1-0 game with two perfect innings of relief.

Wins/Losses: 39-19 | Streak: W4 | 1st in FSL North division (7.5 GM Lead)

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Dunedin Blue Jays 7, Palm Beach Cardinals 1 - WP: Nolin (7-0, 2.43)

After scoring four runs in the second inning, the D-Jays added three more in the sixth to take the opener of a four-game series against the Palm Beach Cardinals 7-1 on Tuesday night at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium.

Hitting:

DH/first baseman Gabe Jacobo continued to impress, going 2-for-4 in the leadoff spot with a two-run home run in the second inning to bring his season total to five. Kevin Nolan, Marcus Knecht, Kenen Bailli and Kevin Ahrens each hit a double, and the D-Jays finished 4-for-12 with runners in scoring position. Also, in addition to throwing out a baserunner, catcher Jack Murphy finished with three RBI on the night thanks to a sacrifice fly in the second and a two-run single in the sixth.

Pitching:

After giving up a leadoff home run to start the game, Dunedin starter Sean Nolin settled in, allowing just six hits and one walk in 5 2/3 shutout innings the rest of the way. After two singles opened the top the top of the fourth inning and eventually led to runners on the corners with two outs, Nolin was able to induce a fly out in foul territory to end the inning. He gave up back-to-back, two-out singles in the fifth and also got some help from reliever Dustin Antolin in the sixth when a runner on third was stranded, but it was still a great outing. The start earned Nolin his seventh win of the season and improved his record to 7-0.

Outside of the walk he issued after replacing Nolin in the sixth, Antolin earned his seventh hold of the season in lights-out fashion, tossing 2 1/3 scoreless innings without allowing a hit.

Making his first appearance of the season with Dunedin, right-hander Drew Permison induced three groundouts in a scoreless ninth inning. Permison, assigned to Dunedin just before the game, spent the bulk of last season closing games for the Vancouver Canadians before a late-season call-up to the Lansing Lugnuts.

Wins/Losses: 40-17 | Streak: W2 | 1st in MID Eastern division (9.5 GM Lead)

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Scheduled off-day

Wins/Losses: 24-23 | Streak: L2 | 3rd in PCL Pacific South division (8.0 GB)

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Nashville Sounds 7, Las Vegas 51s 6 – F/10 – LP: Hoey (0-2, 4.66)

After blowing an early 4-0 lead and clawing back to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth, the Las Vegas 51s ultimately fell to the Nashville Sounds, 7-6 in 10 innings on Thursday night.

Hitting:

Slugging catcher Travis d’Arnaud led the 51s’ offense with two solo home runs, and now has seven homers in his last 10 games to go along with a .310 average and 1.055 OPS over that span. Adam Lind also got in on the party, belting a two-run shot in the first inning for his third home run in five games with the 51s since being optioned to Triple-A over the weekend.

Leadoff hitter Anthony Gose went 3-for-5 with a double and stole his Pacific Coast League-leading 17th base of the season. He extended his hitting streak to eight games, hitting .437 (14-for-32) over that span.

Pitching:

51s starter Aaron Laffey lasted seven innings for the second time in as many starts and allowed five runs (three earned) on seven hits. It was also Laffey’s second consecutive start without issuing a walk and recording five strikeouts. His main mistake came in the third inning, when he surrendered a two-out, three-run home run to Sounds left fielder Brooks Conrad, who later shifted to first base when 2011 Blue Jay Corey Patterson made a pinch hit appearance with the game on the line (he flied out).

Jerry Gil gave up a go-ahead run on two hits in the top of the eighth and closer Chad Beck loaded the bases with two outs in the bottom of the ninth but managed to keep the game tied. Jim Hoey was tagged with the loss after  giving up the game-winning run in the top of the tenth via a RBI groundout.

Wins/Losses: 18-27 | Streak: W1 | 5th in EAS Eastern division (9.5 GB)

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New Hampshire Fisher Cats 8, Portland Sea Dogs 2 – WP: Pino (4-1, 3.18)

After breaking a 1-1 tie in the bottom of the second inning, the Fisher Cats erupted for five runs in the fourth to go on to top the Sea Dogs 8-2 on Thursday night at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium. After losing both games of a doubleheader on Wednesday, the win gave New Hampshire a split in their four-game series against Portland.

Hitting:

New Hampshire’s newest members, second baseman Brian Bocock and catcher Sean Ochinko, were influential in the win. Bocock, playing in only his fourth game with the Fisher Cats after being on the 7-day disabled list since Opening Day, doubled his hit total on the season with a 3-for-5 night that included a double and three RBI. Bocock has certainly made the most of his four games since being activated from the DL, as he’s drawn three walks and stolen a base as well. Ochinko, called up from High-A Dunedin after it was announced that A.J. Jimenez would undergo Tommy John surgery, had a season-high three hits, including his first two doubles in a Double-A uniform.

Leadoff hitter Ryan Goins continued his hot May, going 3-for-5 to extend his hitting streak to six games. Goins, 24, has hit safely in nine of his last 10 contests and is currently hitting .379 (33-for-87) with an .882 OPS in 21 games this month. Switch-hitting left fielder John Tolisano went 1-for-4 with a walk and two RBI.

Overall, the Fisher Cats pounded out eight runs on 13 hits, 10 of which were singles, and had more walks (6) than strikeouts (5).

Pitching:

After giving up a season-high seven runs (six earned) in his last outing on May 18, Fisher Cats starter Yohan Pino rebounded nicely, allowing only a pair of earned runs on seven hits across solid strong innings. After back-to-back two-out doubles plated a run in the first inning, Pino did not have an opposing runner advance past second base until the sixth, when he served up a solo home run to Sea Dogs’ first baseman Reynaldo Rodriguez. Home runs have been a problem for Pino, as he’s given up at least one in five of his eight starts this season. Even though the Venezuela native only struck out three over seven innings on Thursday, it was only the second time this season where he hasn’t issued a walk.

Fernando Hernandez tossed two scoreless innings of relief, allowing only an eighth-inning single while striking out two. The single was the first hit he allowed since May 9, and he has now tossed 8 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings since then.

Wins/Losses: 30-17 | Streak: W1 | 1st in FSL North division (5.0 GM Lead)

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Dunedin Blue Jays 4, Jupiter Hammerheads 3 - WP: Marek (1-0, 9.00) S: Barnes (15)

After Jupiter tied things up at 3 in the top of the eighth, the D-Jays answered with the go-ahead run in the bottom half of the inning, topping the Hammerheads 4-3 at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium on Thursday. With the win, Dunedin halted their season-high losing streak at two games, and, just like the Fisher Cats, the win earned them a split of their four-game series with Jupiter.

Hitting:

Left fielder Marcus Knecht continued to show that he’s turning the corner, going 2-for-2 with a triple, a pair of walks and a RBI. Over his last 10 games, the Canadian is now 11-for-37 (.297) with three home runs, 10 RBI, five walks, and a 1.008 OPS. Leadoff hitter Gabe Jacobo has been on an even bigger tear as of late, as his 2-for-4 performance brought his average up to .295 on the year and he now has a .349/.370/.651 slash line over his last 10 games, including seven doubles and his first two home runs of the season.

Dunedin first baseman Jon Talley quietly went 2-for-3 with a walk, and Ryan Schimpf went 1-for-4, tying a season-high with two RBI while setting a new season-high with three strikeouts.

Pitching:

Dunedin starter Sean Nolin lasted only 5 1/3 innings in his shortest outing since May 3, but allowed only one earned run on three hits while striking out four. While the three hits were the second-fewest that he’s allowed in a start this season, Nolin issued a season-high four walks; one each in the game’s first four innings. After giving up a one-out single to Jupiter first baseman Mark Canha in the sixth, Nolin was pulled in favor of Dayton Marze, who induced a ground out but gave up a two-out double that scored Canha and charged the run to Nolin.

28-year-old reliever Stephen Marek, making his first outing of the season after being transferred from Triple-A Las Vegas without appearing in a single game, picked up the blown-save win after a successful double steal from the Hammerheads scored the game-tying run in the eighth inning.

D-Jays closer Danny Barnes pitched around a Schimpf fielding error and a double in a scoreless ninth to record his Florida State League-leading 15th save of the season. The game’s final out was recorded in dramatic fashion at home plate via an outfield assist, Dunedin right fielder Kenen Bailli to third baseman Kevin Ahrens to catcher Jack Murphy.

Wins/Losses: 33-13 | Streak: W2 | 1st in MID Eastern division (8.5 GM Lead)

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Lansing Lugnuts 5, Dayton Dragons 2 – WP: Rollins (4-0, 2.64) S: Meyer (16)

Thanks to some timely hits and a few gifts from Dayton’s pitching staff, the Lansing Lugnuts were able to beat the Dragons 5-2 on Thursday night. The win was Lansing’s ninth-straight over Dayton this season.

Hitting:

Though the Lugnuts’ five runs were enough to give them the victory, they had countless opportunities to add more. In addition to drawing 12 walks, Lugnuts hitters left 16 runners on base and went just 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position.

Leading the charge was cleanup-hitting shortstop (wait, what?) Andy Burns, who went 3-for-4 with a double, a walk and a RBI. I was thoroughly impressed with Burns on both sides of the ball when I was down in Lansing in early May, and all the 21-year-old has managed to do in the 10 games since then is hit .294 (10-for-34) with four doubles, one triple, two home runs, seven RBI, seven walks and a 1.092 OPS. After dabbling at second and third base earlier in the season, an injury to Opening Day shortstop Chino Vega has given Burns the chance to play almost everyday at short, and he has certainly made the most of it.

Chris Hawkins, hitting third, went 3-for-5 to bring his average up to a team-high .321, K.C. Hobson went 1-for-2 with a RBI and three walks, and Kenny Wilson hit a single and drew a pair of walks.

Speaking of walks, Lugnuts leadoff hitter and second baseman Jonathon Berti went 0-for-3 but drew a pair of free passes, and went on to steal his league-leading 21st base of the season. He’s been caught six times in 27 tries as well, for a very respectable 77% success rate.

Pitching:

Lugnuts starter David Rollins bounced back from his shortest outing of the season against Fort Wayne on May 18 to scatter three hits in five strong innings. He allowed one earned run and one walk while striking out four, in an outing similar to his April 27 start against Kane County. Lugnuts catcher Carlos Perez erased Rollins’ leadoff walk in the first with a great inning-ending throw to third base, and three singles in the third plated Dayton’s only run of the game, but Rollins was dialed in apart from those few small miscues. He retired the final seven batters he faced, including three strikeouts in the fourth inning.

Aleson Escalante earned his first hold since being shipped to the Lugnuts from extended spring training on May 11, Javier Avendano registered his seventh hold of the season with a scoreless eighth around a hit and two walks, and Ajay Meyer got the save with two strikeouts in a perfect ninth. The save was Meyer’s 16th of the season, seven more than the next closest pitcher for the Midwest League lead.

- JM

Wins/Losses: 21-21 | Streak: W1 | 3rd in PCL Pacific South division (8.0 GB)

Las Vegas 51s 5, Memphis Redbirds 3 - WP: Laffey (2-5, 5.04)

Aaron Laffey tossed his first complete game since 2007 and was supported with some timely hits as the Las Vegas 51s went on to defeat Memphis Redbirds 5-3 on Saturday.

Hitting:

Taking a page from the Blue Jays, the 51s scored four of their five runs via the long ball. Chris Woodward belted a two-out, two-run homer in the second inning to put Vegas up early, while Travis d’Arnaud broke a 3-3 tie in the eighth with a two-run shot of his own, his third home run in two games. Woodward had a nice day at the plate overall, adding a game-tying RBI double in the fourth inning to finish 2-for-3 with a walk and three RBI.

While Woodward and d’Arnaud had the 51s’ only extra base hits, the rest of the lineup churned out a whopping 10 singles, with Anthony Gose, David Cooper, Ricardo Nanita and Danny Perales all hitting two each.

Pitching:

Baseball is truly unpredictable, and that was demonstrated on Saturday when 51s starter Aaron Laffey went the distance to earn just his second win of the season. Entering play with a 5.80 ERA, Laffey allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits in nine innings, with five strikeouts and no walks. It was the left-hander’s first complete game in almost five years, as his last one came in 2007 when he pitched for the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons in the Indians organization.

After a throwing error in the middle of the fourth, Laffey retired the next 14 consecutive batters, striking out the side in the ninth inning as well.

Wins/Losses: 16-24 | Streak: L2 | 5th in EAS Eastern division (8.5 GB)

Trenton Thunder 3, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 1 - LP: McGuire (3-1, 3.29)

New Hampshire’s bats were non-existent once again in their second loss to Trenton in as many nights, falling 3-1 on Saturday.

Hitting:

After managing one run in the series opener on Friday, the Fisher Cats responded with just one run again on Saturday. When you do that, it’s hard to win ball games.

New Hampshire’s lone tally came from a John Tolisano home run in the sixth, and he was the only Fisher Cat to have a multi-hit game, also hitting a single and drawing a walk. Four other Fisher Cats each added a single, but it was an ugly night offensively for New Hampshire, who managed one run on six hits.

Pitching:

Fisher Cats starter Randy Boone lasted just one third of an inning, allowing one earned run on three hits to get handed the loss. Reliever Aaron Loup came in to strand a runner at third, and only allowed one hit in 2 2/3 scoreless innings with four strikeouts.

Danny Farquhar gave up crucial runs in the fourth and fifth innings on four hits, while Fernando Hernandez kept New Hampshire close with three perfect innings. Ronald Uvideo tossed a scoreless ninth around two hits and a walk.

Wins/Losses: 27-15 | Streak: L1 | 1st in FSL North division (5.0 GM Lead)

Bradenton Marauders 3, Dunedin Blue Jays 0 - LP: Magnuson (0-4, 5.59)

The Marauders broke a scoreless tie with three runs in the seventh and D-Jays’ bats fell silent, losing to Bradenton 3-0 on Saturday at McKechnie Field.

Hitting:

It was the third time this season that Dunedin was held off the scoreboard, and D-Jays hitters managed just four hits in this one. First baseman Gabe Jacobo was the lone bright spot, going 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles to extend his hitting streak to five games. He’s now hit safely in seven of his last eight games, but has just a .214/.313/.333 slash line over his last 10.

Leadoff hitter Ryan Schimpf went 1-for-3 with a single and a walk, while designated hitter Jon Talley hit a single for his 16th hit in his last 10 games. After hitting .313 with an .879 OPS in April, Talley has torn the cover off the ball in May, hitting .409 with a 1.010 OPS in 11 games.

Pitching:

Dunedin starter Sean Nolin continued to impress, tossing a six-inning gem, but regrettably had nothing to show for it. The left-hander struck out eight, did not issue a walk, and allowed only four hits. Between the second and third innings, Nolin struck out five of the six batters he faced.

Rehabbing reliver Trystan Magnuson, who spent all of 2011 at the Triple-A level and was taken off the Jays’ 40-man roster this week, gave up a season-high three earned runs in one inning of work to take the loss.

Called up from extended spring training, right-hander Bryan Longpre made his D-Jays debut, striking out a pair in a scoreless eighth.

Wins/Losses: 30-12 | Streak: W3 | 1st in MID Eastern division (6.5 GM Lead)

Lansing Lugnuts 2, Lake County Captains 1 – WP: McFarland (1-0, 0.00)

Despite managing just two hits in the game, two key unearned runs helped the Lugnuts defeat the Captains 2-1 on Saturday. With the win, Lansing became the first team in the Midwest League to reach 30 wins.

Hitting:

On a night where the Lugnuts offense was out-hit 10-2, baserunners were obviously scarce. The Lugnuts trailed 1-0 until the top of the sixth inning, when a bunt and a wild pitch advanced leadoff hitter Kellen Sweeney, who reached on a fielding error, to third. Kevin Pillar cashed Sweeney in with a sacrifice fly to tie the game at 1, before Chris Hawkins roped a single to center for the Lugnuts’ first hit. Andy Burns, who has really impressed me this season, doubled to left field to score Hawkins, which wound up being the game-winning run.

Pitching:

Lugnuts starter Marcus Walden allowed one earned run on seven hits in four innings with two walks and three strikeouts to settle for the no-decision. Blake McFarland earned the win with four shutout innings of relief, allowing only three hits and two walks while striking out three. Closer Ajay Meyer tossed a perfect ninth to record his league-leading 14th save of the season.

-JM

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Each pitcher has his strengths and weaknesses, which left a lot of room for personal bias and gut feelings to creep into the rankings. To get an idea of just how variant the order was, below is a chart of the pitchers and their rankings in each of the respective lists.

The only two with identical orders were Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus and myself, and just for the record, my list was released over a month earlier. The most obvious trend is that Sanchez consistently ranked low, and only Keith Law of ESPN placed him within baseball’s top 100 prospects. The worst ranking was by the aforementioned Mr. Goldstein, who added “He’s still a high-ceiling arm, but he will need more work than was anticipated.” Statistically speaking, it made sense – Sanchez did not have a very good 2011 season, but my goodness, how rapidly things can change in only a few months.

Drew Hutchison is in the show while Daniel Norris still awaits his short season assignment in extended spring training, putting the three Lansing pitchers, Syndergaard, Nicolino and Sanchez, on a level playing field. They have been pitching in a piggyback system, where one pitcher starts their scheduled game and pitches his three or four innings, and is then immediately followed by the other pitcher who throws the same number of innings in the same game. Syndergaard has been pairing with a 2011 draft pick, Anthony DeSclafani, while Sanchez and Nicolino have been pitching in tandem.

After an offseason in which he was the most heavily scrutinized, the 2012 season has been all about Aaron Sanchez. Speaking in terms of both statistics and recent scouting reports, he has been the most impressive of the trio, and could easily find himself soaring up mid-season prospect lists.

The most obvious question is, what has changed?

People may be quick to suggest that he’s finally resolved his glaring command issues, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. His 4.70 walks per nine innings this season is actually higher than it was in 2011, when he walked 4.31 batters per nine innings. The biggest change, at least through the first six weeks of the season, has been his ability to completely overpower hitters. His strikeout rate of 10.96 batters per nine innings is exceptional, and has helped Sanchez to a microscopic .111 opposing batting average. That number is obviously unsustainable –- his BABIP is only .182 –- but both his current season (2.27 GO/AO) and historical (2.90 in 2010, 1.60 in 2011) ground ball rates suggest he should always be well above average in that respect, and it speaks to how much life he has on pitches

The next question should be, how has he changed?

The scouting reports on Sanchez have always been based around one word: projection. When he was selected by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 2010 draft, he was a rail thin high school kid, standing 6-foot-3 and weighing a meager 170 pounds. His fastball sat in the 88-91 range with the highest readings coming in at 93 mph, and the curveball Sanchez threw was considered only an average offering. Despite this, Sanchez was the type of pitcher scouts drool over in high school, as they knew his body had so much more to offer. Projection.

Sanchez got into a handful of games in late 2010, but didn’t truly get some exposure until the summer of 2011, when he made his debut with Toronto’s newest affiliate, the Bluefield Blue Jays. He had already beefed up a few pounds, and it was evident on the mound. His fastball was beginning to sit in the low 90’s, and touched as high as 95 mph. His curveball was significantly improved as well, showing tight rotation and hard, late break. Sanchez’ curve was even rated as the best in the system by Baseball America, a notable feat given that six of the top seven arms in the system (according to my rankings) throw a curveball.

He has taken things a step further in the first two months of 2012, with multiple reports, including one by Toronto General Manager Alex Anthopoulos himself, stating that Sanchez was now being clocked as high as 97 mph on his fastball. In an April 26th “Scouting Notebook” over at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein backed up that report, stating that Sanchez has been the most impressive of the Lansing trio, throwing his fastball 91-97 mph and showing a plus curveball. Now bulked up to 190 pounds, projection is becoming reality.

Prospect rankings are extremely fluid, so it’s not unusual for a hot or slow start to a season to cause a player to move up or down in the minds of writers. Sanchez still has legitimate flaws, but it’s quite obvious that he’s more than just the team’s fifth best pitching prospect as I gave him credit for last winter. In fact, if I were to re-rank the aforementioned five pitchers, I might boost Sanchez as high as second. His fastball is only a step behind Noah Syndergaard’s, but his curveball is significantly better. I wouldn’t rank Sanchez as the top arm on the farm, as I feel Norris has done nothing to lose the title I bestowed upon him in December. Four months from now, however, the story could be very different. Once September rolls around, Sanchez will have roughly 120 innings of data, and Norris will have finally made an extended professional debut. If the scouting reports from August are as glowing as the versions we’re hearing now, it’s very feasible that Sanchez could be Toronto’s new top pitching prospect, something I would have had a very hard time believing only a couple of months ago.

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That trip came last week, when I was able to take in four Lugnuts games from Monday to Thursday, with Nicolino and Sanchez scheduled to pitch on the Thursday night. I had kept last Friday open in the event of a postponed game while I was down there, but both hurlers pitched on Thursday as planned. Here’s what I noted about Nicolino, and I’ll have a separate article coming on Sanchez.

Note: The velocities mentioned below were an average of a nearby scout’s gun and the stadium gun, which was unreliable at times as it consistently read 2-3 mph higher or didn’t give a reading at all. I did bring my gun with me, but for whatever reason I discovered very quickly into the first game on Monday that it didn’t pick up accurate readings from a variety of different seating locations, so I was forced to improvise for the rest of the trip.

Nicolino, like Sanchez, entered last Thursday’s game without having allowed a single run so far this season, but with Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos in attendance, he finished his outing having allowed three earned runs on a season-high six hits with four strikeouts. He didn’t necessarily have his best stuff, but I still walked away quite impressed.

Nicolino’s smooth, repeatable delivery was noticeable, and confirmed the work that he has put in to iron out his mechanics since pitching with Vancouver last year. His fastball was 89-93 mph, touching 94 on the stadium gun once, and he commanded it to both sides of the plate, running it inside to right-handers. He dazzled with his plus changeup at times, ranging from 82-86 but consistently sitting 83-84, both up and down in the zone. His sweeping 75-79 mph curveball worked well against left-handers and he threw it with good wrist action that caused a sharp 2-8 break. He did throw the curve for strikes, but his command could have been better as he missed the zone more often that not with it, especially outside to left-handed hitters.

Getting the start, Nicolino managed to erase a leadoff single in a scoreless first inning with a heads-up pickoff throw 1-3-6 in his third toss over to first base. Outside of a missed swing with his changeup, he stuck primarily with his fastball during the inning.

In a scoreless second, Nicolino mixed up his pitches a lot more, and his polish became much more evident; he faced four hitters in the frame and took little time to color me impressed. The first thing that stood out was the way he handled Bowling Green leadoff hitter Todd Glaesmann, a right-handed hitter. After throwing a 90 mph fastball down the middle for a called first strike, he switched to his curveball, which was ruled high and inside for a ball. Then, instead of throwing a different pitch, Nicolino went right back to his curveball and placed the offering a hair less inside to get the strike call, before inducing a weakly hit grounder that resulted in an infield single.

The second thing that impressed me that inning wasn’t that Nicolino not only got ahead 0-1 on each of the final three batters of the inning, but that he did so using three different pitches. He threw a 91 mph fastball down the middle to Cameron Seitzer, an 84 mph changeup over the plate to Josh Sale, and a 79 mph inside curveball to Joel Caminero, all for strikes. Facing Caminero with two out, Nicolino toggled exclusively between his curveball and changeup to eventually strike him out swinging. Lugnuts No. 2 broadcaster Keaton Gillogly tweeted a few weeks about how Nicolino’s nasty changeup lives up to the hype, and after seeing it in a game situation first-hand, I certainly agree.

The third inning was really the only spot where Nicolino got into a bit of trouble, where two weak runs were scored on him. After he fielded a chopper to the mound but couldn’t get the runner in time on his throw, a first-pitch single and a double steal quickly put runners on second and third with nobody out. A sacrifice fly and a ground out quickly put two outs on the board but two runs as well, before Nicolino struck out left-handed hitter Jeff Malm swinging on an inside fastball to end the frame.

Leading off the top of the fourth, Nicolino struck out Glaesmann on six pitches: 90 mph fastball outside (ball), 83 mph changeup high (swinging strike), 90 mph fastball outside (swinging strike), 92 mph fastball (foul), 91 mph fastball inside (ball) and an 82 mph changeup low (swinging strike three). After getting his next hitter to ground out, it looked as though Nicolino was going to have a routine 1-2-3 inning. But the next batter, Josh Sale, hammered a 1-0 pitch all the way into a parking lot across the street in right field for a solo home run. It came on a fastball, and was the first home run that Nicolino had surrendered in his pro career.

A single and an error from Lugnuts third baseman Andy Burns quickly put runners on first and second, but Nicolino struck out Bowling Green’s Tyler Goeddel swinging to end the threat. After tossing a first-pitch strike with a fastball, Nicolino impressed me once again by going to his curveball in a jam and throwing it for consecutive strikes.

After his latest start on Tuesday, Nicolino now has a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings for the Lugnuts this season. He’s given up 25 hits over that span, including 12 in his last eight innings, but also has 27 strikeouts to just three walks for a 9:1 ratio.

Even not at his best, Lugnuts left-hander Justin Nicolino was impressive. (KEVIN W. FOWLER, Lansing State Journal)

- JM

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Walden limited the Hot Rods to just two hits in his outing, with four strikeouts and two walks. Although he did not give up a run in his five innings, the right-hander didn’t have his best stuff, frequently missing outside to left-handed hitters with his fastball and operating almost exclusively on the right side of the plate all night.

After stranding a runner on third base in the second inning, Walden ran into some trouble in the third. A fielding error from Lugnuts first baseman K.C. Hobson and a walk put runners on first and second with nobody out, but Walden managed to get a fly out on a ground ball that should have resulted in an inning-ending double play. Hobson dove to stop a hard grounder and threw to get the runner at second, but the throw to first wasn’t in time and the inning was kept alive. Covering first on the play, Walden made a nice scoop on the short throw from Lugnuts second baseman Jon Berti to prevent a run from scoring.

Walden then issued an ill-timed walk to standout Rays prospect Drew Vettleson to load the bases, but induced a grounder to end the inning unscathed. He calmed down after that, however, retiring five consecutive Hot Rod hitters en route to two shutout innings.

After scoring two runs in the third inning, the Lugnuts’ offense broke out in the fifth, capitalizing on Bowling Green’s mistakes. After a single, stolen base, passed ball and two walks quickly loaded the bases, a groundout from Berti scored the first run of the inning before leadoff hitter Kenny Wilson scored on another passed ball to put the Lugnuts up 4-0.

Lansing Lugnuts reliever Blake McFarland throws in the eighth inning of the Lugnuts' 7-3 win over Bowling Green on Wednesday.

That brought up Carlos Perez, who has been quite aggressive at the plate recently, swinging at first pitches and getting behind in counts during multiple at-bats. In what should have been an inning-ending flyout, Hot Rods left fielder Josh Sale lost the ball in the sky and it dropped for a double, scoring two more runs for the Lugnuts.

Lansing shortstop Andy Burns continued to impress during this homestand, hitting a long double in the sixth inning off the left field wall that was just short of being his fifth home run of the season. He made some great defensive plays as well, including an impressive running throw on a grounder behind the mound.

The Lugnuts send “Sancholino” — their impressive pitching tandem of southpaw Justin Nicolino and right-hander Aaron Sanchez — to the mound tomorrow, with Nicolino opening the contest at 7:05 p.m.

-JM

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