Apr 25, 2013; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons (5) argues a call with umpire Jeff Kellogg (8) against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Jon Lester (4-0, 2.27 ERA) v/s Brandon Morrow (0-2, 5.27)
Game 2: Clay Buchholz (5-0, 1.19 ERA) v/s Mark Buehrle (1-1, 6.35)
Game 3: Ryan Dempster (1-2, 3.30 ERA) v/s TBA

Game 1 sees a resurgent and healthy Lester taking on forever-waiting-on-potential Morrow. I like the guy, I think he works hard and is a true team player but we are now into our fourth year of muddling and befuddling Morrow. His stuff is filthy but so is his pitch count. If he can bring himself down in pitch count and ease off on the walks (19:9 K/BB ratio), the potential for Cy Young stuff is there. But the bright side is John Lester, with the sparkling ERA and record seems to hit a bump in his last start, issuing 6 walks and 3 earned in just over 6 innings. If he is falling into the same Lester as last year then perhaps the Blue Jays could take this one.

Game 2 is a match up of perhaps the biggest surprise so far in Buchholz and perhaps the biggest pitching disappointment in Buehrle. Buchholz has not gone less than 7 innings all season. A 3:1 K/BB and a WHIP of 1.01 are the makings of an early Cy Young candidate. Buchholz has always had the potential. Is this the year he finally puts it all together? On the other end, is this the beginning of a sharp decline for Buehrle. A WHIP of 1.52 and a collective BAA of .306 is high, even for a guy who is prone to giving up lots of hits. He can’t seem to bear down and is prone to the big inning so far. Is this just a fluke? This would be a great way of proving the value of his contract. Beat their best when you are not performing at your best.

For Game 3, Ryan Dempster has done fairly well so far. Many thought he would have a sharp spike in ERA coming over to the AL from the NL but his .187 BAA has been amazing and he has struck out between 7 and 10 batters in every start so far. Strikeouts carry a lot of weight in this division and unless we curb our free swinging ways this could be a feast for Dempster. There is no starter listed as of yet for the good guys. Johnson is scheduled but they are still monitoring his progress from tricep tightness. With an off day yesterday it may mean bumping J.A. Happ up a notch to fill the spot. I have no problem with this as he has been the steadiest contributor in the rotation.

Line-Ups:

The following are the probable line-ups for both squads.

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. DH: Rajai Davis
2. SS: Munenori Kawasaki
3. RF: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
5. LF: Melky Cabrera
6. C: J.P. Arencibia
7. CF: Colby Rasmus
8. 3B: Brett Lawrie
9. 2B: Maicer Izturis

Boston Red Sox:

1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
2. RF: Daniel Nava
3. 2B: Dustin Pedroia
4. DH: David Ortiz
5. 1B: Mike Napoli
6. LF: Mike Carp
7. C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
8. 3B: Will Middlebrooks
9. SS: Stephen Drew

The lineup needs some semblance of stability. With Brett Lawrie working his way back in the majors and Jose Bautista seemingly over his back issues, this would be the perfect time to pull a Cito and set the lineup for a few weeks and let the players sink or swim. Fiddling with the roster has done nothing so try the other approach. With the MLB ranking of 27th in both pitching and fielding perhaps a different methodology would work…that and perhaps working the count (see Rasmus, Colby and Arencibia, J.P.).

Boston has been nothing short of amazing so far but this crew is a starter injury or Pedroia injurya away from a free fall. Can John Farrell do what Bobby Valentine couldn’t? So far the numbers speak for themselves (all numbers are MLB ranking): 3rd in Team BA, 2nd in slugging, 2nd in OPS, 6th in ERA and 1st in BAA. Them some fine numbers them is.

The Final Word:

It is great to see EE performing better as of late and thank goodness for Lawrie at third. I almost forgot how slick he was around the bag and his throwing arm is mint. Reyes and Lawrie will be a dynamite left side for the nest few years. We are getting hits here and there, home runs here and there but ultimately it is both the offence and the starting pitching that is performing below par. The starters seem to be straightening out a bit so there is hope there. Where is the hope for a team that ranks 27th in OBP, 28th in BA, 28th in WHIP, 3rd in hits allowed and 6th in walk allowed. At this pace we could challenge for worst statistical team in franchise history…but we all know there is nowhere to go but up right?

Sep 6, 2011; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos talks to media before the game against the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 14-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

In season, we saw the arrival of Colby Rasmus and the first number retired in team history: Roberto Alomar‘s number 12. We may not have been too competitive on the field but the fans bought into AA’s plan to build for 2013 and beyond. To be sustainable. He brought the minor league system from 25th best to 3rd best according to Baseball America. He drafted well and the prospect pool started to deepen. We, as fans, were hoping for the best but realistic that to fix what J.P. Ricciardi had left would take some time. A new philosophy always needs to bleed into the fabric of a team over time. So the 2011 Home Opener was a celebration of not only a new season but a new feel to our beloved Blue Jays.

Date: April 1, 2011
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
Game: Minnesota Twins vs. YOUR Toronto Blue Jays
Weather:…there is no weather inside a dome…ain’t figured that out yet? Hehe

We would see the maturing process of Ricky Romero reach it’s pinnacle in 2011 as he is named the number 1 starter for this team. With Romero and Brandon Morrow we saw two fixtures in the rotation. The next three were a mish mash of Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Henderson Alvarez, Jesse Litch et al. The offence seemed primed for a great season with Jose Bautista blowing the cover off the ball, Adam Lind showing early promise and Brett Lawrie looking to impress. The pieces were falling into place at certain positions.

The game was a laugher from the start. We tallied fours runs in the first off a resurgent Carl Pavano and added six more before the start of the sixth. Romero was tossing donuts and looking every bit the number 1 he was designated to be. He would go 6.1 innings, 3 runs given up but only 1 earned and 7 strikeouts. Add to that the killer night of J.P. Arencibia (3-4, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, including 2 home runs). The game was well in hand as we trounced the Twins 13-3.

Coming off the type of surprise season the team had in 2010 this looked to be a great omen…an omen that went in the crapper as we finished 81-81…a mediocre line but underneath that failure to win were the seeds being planted of a winning team. We just needed to be patient. With a few more moves over the off-season this looked like a team being built properly, with no excuses. All we needed was to wait…

Sep 22, 2012; Flushing, NY,USA; New York Mets starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (43) reacts in the dugout during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PREWIRE

Throughout the last week or so I have been posting some games from yesteryear that make me all gooey and warm inside. No-hitters, Pennant Clinchers…days of rampant optimism. I felt that surge coming back but Alex Anthopoulos has me insides feeling like a fresh baked cake still warm wit da fudge all seething out…but I digress…

This off-season now shows to be a cunning 3 part trilogy of pure skill. He really is a ninja in a nice suit with a flare for the dramatic. This trilogy was a mere month and a half long starting with the swift yet deft signing of Maicer Izturis to eradicate the mess left by Kelly Johnson. That was like the sweet and subtle opener where a little surprise hooks you into watching how the first act will unfold.

The second act is usually larger. More complex. It shows you the bare core of intentions and either corrals your faith or destroys it. With the acquisitions from Florida we imported character and talent in exchange for the unknown. We chose the road less traveled (Yes I meant to infer that). We needed a change. AA flowers us with Melky Cabrera. We crave more action so the second act ends with the epic battle for R.A. Dickey.

AA has set up a rather enticing climax leading into the third act. Bringing all of the aspects into a grand finale you could hope for. But if past experiences and talent level is any indication, the final act shall be almost worth waiting 20 years for. If you were excited by the end of the second act, the third will be an astounding amalgamation of the first two acts.

With the relative inaction of the AL East teams in terms of high profile moves and a desperately-seeking-winner fan base in Toronto, AA has risen to the top of the sporting world mountain in Toronto. He saw an opening and as he has always maintained he had the resources to go for it when the time was right. That time is now.

Underneath the astounding change of our beloved Blue Jays is still a firm foundation of prospects with legitimate chances to become major league ready. A completely different story is being harnessed from kids like D.J. Davis, Aaron Sanchez, A.J. Jimenez and Anthony Gose. They are drafting the next trilogy as AA keeps acquiring assets to build a long term contender. If we lose Josh Johnson after the year I would hope one of Drew Hutchison, Kyle Drabek or even Dustin McGowan may be ready to step in…we have more possibilities because this team is built to contend for the next three years. Prime years for most of the guys.

So when the third act begins and your heart is palpitating from all the excitement remember to stand up and cheer this year. Let’s remind the team what it is like to play in a city brimming with optimism and hope. It feels like our year…doesn’t it?

Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

With the other half of the Jays’ squad playing against the Red Sox in Dunedin, the game against the Pirates was a great opportunity to see prospects from different minor league levels play in the same game.

After Yunel Escobar made a pair of great throws in the bottom of the first,  Adam Lind led off the top of the second with a groundout to Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison, who was able to throw him out despite bobbling the ball since it looked like Lind wasn’t hustling down the line as much as he could have.

David Cooper roped a long single to the corner in left field, where he stumbled slightly while motoring around first base, contemplating taking second. Later in the frame, Moises Sierra hit a “ground-rule double” that rolled down the left field line and into the bullpen by the entrance to the clubhouse, out of play. Despite the two hits, the Jays didn’t manage to score.

Kyle Drabek got the start for the Jays and, after tossing a 1-2-3 first that included a strikeout of leadoff hitter Alex Presley, he didn’t fare well in the second inning.

After getting ahead 1-2 to leadoff hitter Garrett Jones, Drabek pitched himself into a full count after two consecutive high balls but managed to strike him out swinging on a great fastball low and inside. In the next at-bat to Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez, though, Drabek got himself into another full count and paid for it, as Alvarez knocked a wind-carried, opposite-field solo home run to left to put the Pirates up 1-0.

Then, after giving up a deep double to Clint Barmes on an 0-2 pitch, Harrison ripped a double of his own to put the Pirates up 2-0. After a pickoff attempt from Drabek, Harrison stole third after Blue Jays catcher Travis d’Arnaud‘s throw was high and to left of the bag in foul territory. Drabek’s emotions might have been getting to him, as he walked Mike McKenry on five pitches to put runners on the corners. Since McKenry was the fourth consecutive batter to reach base in the inning, it prompted a mound visit for Drabek.

After he got a bit of a break with Pirates pitcher Jeff Karstens laying down a bunt to advance McKenry to second, Presley knocked an RBI single to left that only scored one, since McKenry was thrown out trying to score from second on a fantastic throw from Travis Snider and an equally great tag from d’Arnaud in a collision at home plate.

Promising right-hander Drew Hutchison came in to pitch the third where, after getting Jose Tabata to fly out to right he benefited from another great throw by Escobar to hit an outstretched Cooper at first base to get speedy Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen in a bang-bang play at the bag. After angrily staring straight ahead following the home run that he gave up to Jones, Hutchison struck out Alvarez swinging to end the inning.

The Jays put together a two-out rally in the top of the fourth, where Cooper drew a walk and advanced to second on a passed ball before Rajai Davis stroked a single to right. Cooper, hustling once again around third and thinking home the whole way, he was held up by the Jays’ third base coach. A walk from Sierra after being behind 1-2 set up a bases-loaded situation for Mike McCoy, who flew out to shallow center to end the threat, keeping the Jays off the scoreboard.

Outside of a double to Harrision, Hutchison pitched a scoreless bottom of the fourth, keeping the ball down in the zone and using primarily off-speed pitches. After a flyout to Sierra, he showcased his cannon of an arm, launching the ball to third base with only a short bounce amid “oohs” and “ahhs” from the crowd to prevent Harrison from tagging.

The Jays’ offense broke out in a big way in the fifth, with Brian Bocock hustling out a leadoff triple and scoring on a single from Escobar. Then, after Luis Valbuena came on as a pinch runner for Escobar, Snider hit a towering home run over the right field wall to make it a 4-3 game. Snider had looked great in BP, hitting five consecutive balls to deep right field and three over the fence, and it seemed to have rubbed off on him in-game because his home run was an absolute moon shot. D’Arnaud roped a double down the third base line before Lind singled him home to tie the game at four.

Travis d'Arnaud and Deck McGuire talk things over before getting started.

Deck McGuire came in for the bottom of the fifth, and he was looked the best out of the Jays pitchers on the day. He threw the ball low in the zone, keeping hitters honest with his circle changeup while bringing his fastball, which looked great. He was the victim of a great leadoff at-bat against Tabata, who kept fouling pitches off with the count 2-2 before slapping a single. As expected, Tabata stole second base, on a throw from d’Arnaud that was on line but too high, and McCoy had to jump to keep the ball from sailing into center field. The baserunner didn’t affect Mcguire, though, since he finished with a scoreless frame that included a strikeout of Jones looking at a perfectly-executed changeup.

It was more of the same from McGuire in the bottom of the sixth where, after giving up a leadoff single to Alvarez and another base hit, he ended the threat and kept the Pirates off the scoreboard.

Blue Jay hitters broke the 4-4 tie in the top of the seventh, when Yan Gomes, pinch-hitting for Lind, cranked a solo home run to center before Jonathan Diaz hit a double that scored two to put the Jays up 7-4. Scoring on the play was outfielder Jake Marinick, who had come on for Davis in the previous inning, and it was not only easy to spot just how big he is, but also how fast, since he came barreling around third to score.

Reliever Ryan Tepera warms in the bullpen.

Jays right-hander Ryan Tepera got touched for two runs in the bottom of the frame, after giving up a leadoff walk and a home run to Starling Marte. Marte, one of the top prospects in the Pirates organization, showed exactly why he is so highly-touted and was fun to watch. Speaking of fun to watch, Diaz, who impressed me with some slick defensive plays at third base over the weekend, made a great stop on a ball in the hole at second to rob Pirates hitter Matt Hague of a base hit.

After Valbuena knocked a solo home run in the eighth to give the Jays a two-run lead, Tepera was able to bounce back with a scoreless frame and Robert Coello worked around two hits in a scoreless ninth to preserve the Jays’ 8-6 lead and give them the victory.

Like I mentioned above, I was really impressed with how McGuire looked, especially since it was his first appearance of the spring. Home run to Jones aside, Hutchison looked good as well, keeping the ball on the outer half of the plate more often than not. It was also nice to see some of the young, big-bodied outfielders like Marisnick and Michael Crouse, plus the cannon that is Sierra’s arm.

- JM

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Kyle Drabek is looking to bounce back in 2012. (Daylife)

For Kyle Drabek, things have changed dramatically over the past 12 months. A year ago today, he was one of the favorites for the final two spots in the rotation behind Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil. He only further cemented his roster spot during Spring Training, where he put together a 2.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 14:1 strikeout to walk ratio in his 16 innings (four starts). Preseason prognostication had him pegged as one of the three top choices for American League Rookie of the Year, alongside pitchers Jeremy Hellickson of the Rays and Michael Pineda of the Mariners. One of the three put together a 2.95 ERA on his way to winning the aforementioned award. Another made the All-Star team. The third didn’t share the same success and compiled a 6.74 ERA across 29 starts between the Majors and Triple-A. I’m sure Blue Jays fans are well aware which of the three Drabek was.

How exactly does a team’s best pitching prospect – and one of the best pitchers in the entire minor leagues – completely implode in only a matter of months? This wasn’t simply rookie struggles. As Blue Jays fans saw in the first half of the season, this was a complete physical and mental breakdown. Before we can figure out what Drabek needs to do to avoid a similar fate in the upcoming season, we must first determine what exactly went wrong last season.

35.5% four-seam fastballs, 93.4 mph
29.4% two-seam fastballs, 93.1 mph
16.1% cut fastball, 91.2 mph
7.6% “slider”, 82.3 mph
6.9% changeup, 86.5 mph
4.4% curveball, 83.0 mph

The information above is the percentage of total pitches and average velocity of each of Drabek’s “six” pitches from his time in the Majors in 2011, via FanGraphs. I put both the terms “slider” and “six” in quotations, because in actuality, Kyle Drabek does not throw a slider. He throws three different types of fastballs – the traditional four-seamer, a two-seamer, and a cut fastball – as well as a power curveball and straight changeup. The “slider” that appears in his PitchFX data is really a mislabeled curveball, though to be fair, outside of velocity, it’s really nothing like his true spike curveball.

As you can see in the data from his start against the Minnesota Twins on April 2 – arguably his best start of the season – the only offspeed pitch he threw was the aforementioned power curveball. The curve sat between 80 and 86 mph, and had movement that agrees with the 1-7 arc he puts on the pitch. His best curveball of the evening had an incredible 12 inches of vertical break. Additionally, curveballs accounted for 16 of his 101 total pitches thrown, good for 15.8%.

It was a far different story in his start against the Boston Red Sox on June 12, his final start with Toronto before his demotion to Triple-A. In this game, he threw zero pitches that were classified as curveballs, and seven pitches that were classified as “sliders”. The pitches clocked between 81 and 86 mph, but had far different movement than the breaking ball that we saw in his dominant April debut. The best of these “sliders” had six inches of vertical drop, merely half of the break his spike curveball typically shows. He threw 91 pitches in the game, and with only seven breaking balls (7.7%), he clearly became overly reliant on his three fastballs and his changeup. Comparing these two starts is like comparing apples and oranges, because outside of the name on the back of the jersey, Drabek was not the same pitcher in June as he was in April.

So how exactly does a curveball get misclassified as a slider? The PitchFX system relies upon velocity and movement for their classification scheme, and as the year wore on, the action on Drabek’s curveball left the range of parameters predetermined for the pitch. As the breaking ball exits said range, the system is forced to reclassify it to the pitch type with the most commonalities in velocity and movement – in this case, a slider. With that being said, Blue Jays fans are likely far more interested in knowing what happened to Drabek’s curveball, the plus-plus pitch that made him the top prospect that he was.
In reality, the grips between the two pitches aren’t drastically different; it’s the arm slot that has the biggest effect. Pitchers who rely upon curveballs will usually work from an overhead arm slot. Such an arm slot allows the pitcher to get a steep downward plane on the ball, creating beautiful 12-to-6 action. Former Cy Young Award winner Adam Wainwright is a perfect example of this. In contrast, pitchers who rely upon sliders will typically work from more of a three-quarter arm slot. It allows them to get two-plane movement and tilt on the pitch, as Blue Jays fans saw when Dave Stieb regularly took the mound in Toronto.

The arm slot is particularly important for Drabek, since at 6-foot-1, he needs to have as high of a release point as possible to create a downward plane. As the season wore on, however, something happened that caused his arm slot to drop. Whether it was fatigue, injury, or simply mechanical flaws we may never know, but the lowered arm slot killed the vertical movement on his breaking ball, transforming it from a power curveball into a slurve. With the breaking ball lacking its usual sharp movement, Drabek began to shy away from it, throwing more and more fastballs and cutters in its place. His fastball command is mediocre at best, so as hitters realized they didn’t have to worry about the curveball, they simply stood at the plate and let Drabek work himself into hitters counts. The problem only worsened from there, as Drabek becomes increasingly reliant upon fastballs in these situations.

1-0: 67% FB | 2-1: 74% FB | 2-0: 85% FB | 3-1: 95% FB | 3-0: 100% FB

When a pitcher becomes dependent upon fastballs and, thanks to his command, is always in fastball counts, you have a problem. Hitters know what’s coming, and as we saw, the results aren’t pretty.

Beyond just the mechanical issues that worsened as the year wore on, one has to wonder how much of an effect being the only pitching prospect in the Roy Halladay trade had on Kyle Drabek. His fiery personality is well documented, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that both expectations and his ineffectiveness took an emotional toll, particularly as the failure began to compound itself. Through my personal observations, and I’m confident most would agree, Drabek looked like a defeated man in late May and early June prior to his demotion. In a recent article written by Steve Kornacki of the Globe and Mail, Drabek was quoted as saying “I was frustrated every inning, every game. And it did not help me; it hurt me.” He stepped onto the mound with no confidence, expecting failure. When a player has that mindset, failure really becomes the only option, as it’s near impossible to succeed at anything in life – let alone the competitive environment of professional sports – if you don’t believe in yourself.

The great part about Spring Training is that it’s a fresh start for everyone. Fixing his mechanics and becoming more consistent with his release point appears to have been the focus of Drabek’s offseason, as he has entered the spring focused on drills that will clean up his delivery. With more consistent and sound mechanics, the sharp break on his curveball should return. Not only will the breaking ball itself be much improved, but by throwing it more – perhaps 15-20% – he’ll keep hitters off balance, and his other pitches will see improvement as well. Working backwards and throwing the curveball in fastball counts would also be of great benefit to him, because as I mentioned, he’s become far too predictable in that regard.

Additionally, and perhaps even more importantly, Drabek is entering Spring Training 2012 under the radar. He’s more than two years removed from the Roy Halladay trade, and he’s no longer the top pitching prospect that is expected to immediately help lead the staff and contend for the American League Rookie of the Year award. He’s now just one of the guys, looking to perform well enough to contend for the fifth spot in the rotation. After such a disastrous 2011 season, expectations really couldn’t be lower, and that’s exactly what Drabek needs right now. Finding consistency with his mechanics and rebuilding his confidence aren’t going to happen overnight, and with the wealth of pitching talent Toronto now possesses, there’s no immediate pressure. Whether it’s as the fifth starter in Toronto or down in Double-A New Hampshire, Drabek will sort himself out, and when he does, he’ll be worth the wait.

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It shouldn’t have been shocking news. Every team in baseball has a payroll limit, just as the resources of every business are finite.

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The two chat about the upcoming winter caravan and the feeling amongst the Jays’ fan base both around the city and at the ballpark, with Farrell adding that “it’s an exciting time to be following the Blue Jays”. They talk about Farrell’s first year as manager, where he repeats, from an interview earlier in the year, that he needs to do a better job handling the bullpen and how it was difficult going from being in charge of 12-14 pitchers to a full 25-man roster.

Bullpen-wise, come spring training, Farrell feels that there are more defined roles unlike last year where it was a “by committee” approach. Farrell adds that Santos marks “where the blueprint really begins” and the organization has a clearer picture heading into the start of spring training. Farrell gets into specifics about how he can improve his handling of the bullpen next season, citing that things will be easier since there are more known commodities in the individual pitchers in the bullpen and that he better understands what their capabilities are .

“I ran from some guys when they didn’t perform as expected, and I think I need to trust the belief in them and ride them in some rocky times,” Farrell admitted, eventually adding that he was, at times, reluctant to go back to a guy right away if he didn’t pitch well the night before.

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The Blue Jays signed “soft-tossing-lefty” Aaron Laffey to a split contract yesterday. Laffey, 26, was non-tendered by the Royals earlier this month.

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Image courtesy of Cooperstown Dreams Park

Though Garza is, according to Epstein, “exactly the type of pitcher” that the Cubs would want to build around going forward, the 28-year-old would surely accelerate their rebuilding efforts by bringing back a bounty of prospects if he was traded. This has led to various “reports” linking the Blue Jays to the Cubs and Garza, with ESPN’s Jim Bowden even listing the Jays as the Chicago’s “best fit” in any trade scenario.

Considering the package of players that the Cubs parted with to get Garza in the first place — not to mention the weak pitching market right now — their asking price for him will be astronomical. Combine that with the fact that the Jays’ rotation will already be better in 2012 as-is, the prospects set to knock on the big-league door next season, and the deep list of available free agent starters to choose from next winter, and trading for Garza right now makes no sense for the Jays. (more…)