Johnson has played so poorly here, it’s nearly impossible for the team to consider bringing him back for the 2013 season. Even if he would agree to a much more team friendly contract, that Blue Jays need to move on. After such a colossally disappointing season, optics will be a very important aspect of the offseason. Not only does the team need to make upgrades, but they need to be visual to the casual fan. As the September attendance has shown, the new logo hype has worn off, and the historically successful spring is long forgotten. Three months of constant heartbreak and frustration will do that to a fan base. Admittedly, I’ve watched far fewer Blue Jays games here in August and September than I did in May and June. Part of that has been due to less free time in the evenings, but a lot of it has to do with me questioning why I would want to put myself through three hours of alternating waves of agony and anger. Kelly Johnson cannot play second base for this team in 2013. We need a fresh start.

Unfortunately, the options at second base are rather limited. Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano are or will be under long term contract, and honestly, I’d rather claw out my own eyes than see Pedroia in a Blue Jays uniform anyway. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are signed to significant deals, and as both play for a contender, they’re doubtful to be available in trade. Ben Zobrist has a much more favorable contract with three years and 20 million (including options) remaining after 2012, but that’s exactly why Tampa Bay wouldn’t want to move him. Jason Kipnis, Neil Walker, and Dustin Ackley would be my preferred targets, but the cost may be deemed prohibitive as all three are under team control for four-plus years.

The free agent market has even less to offer. If he’s willing to move to second base, Stephen Drew is the marquee name. He missed nearly a full year with the broken ankle he suffered last July, and has been dreadful since his return. Even so, teams would be foolish to forget the 5.1 WAR he produced in 2010, his last healthy season. If Drew is the upside play, Marco Scutaro is the safe play. He’s been resurgent since being freed from Colorado and joining the pennant race in San Francisco, and could be counted on for solid but unspectacular production. There’s little else beyond those two, as the next best options appear to be Kelly Johnson, Maicer Izturis, and Freddy Sanchez – not an inspiring group.

August 11, 2012; Toronto, ON, CANADA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Adeiny Hechavarria (3) throws out New York Yankees baseman Mark Teixeira (not pictured) at the Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-US PRESSWIRE

If the team can’t make an addition through the trade market or free agency, Adeiny Hechavarria appears to be the fallback option. He’s looked about how I expected; raw, but with some potential. There’s no questioning his defensive prowess, as his actions in the field have looked incredibly smooth. His throws across the diamond from third base have been both powerful and accurate, so second base would be a cake walk. Hechavarria has looked raw at the plate, but at least to me, he hasn’t looked wild. There’s a difference between swinging wildly and missing, and Hechavarria has fallen into the latter category. Pitchers have been challenging him in the strike zone and his swings have looked good, but he doesn’t yet have the hit tool to make contact at an average or above rate. This can be improved. As Hechavarria continues to work with coaches to learn what pitchers throw and their sequencing, he’ll have a better idea what’s coming and can time his swing better. One thing is for certain; if Hechavarria is with the Blue Jays in 2013, Chad Mottola needs to be as well. Scouts have noticed a significant improvement in swing mechanics since Hechavarria began working with Mottola late last season, and honestly, I don’t want Dwayne Murphy anywhere near him or Anthony Gose.

If you ranked all of the options for second base, Hechavarria would probably be between the middle and the bottom third. He obviously has less upside than guys like Kipnis and Walker, but at the same time, I’m confident he could out produce most of the free agents available in this thin crop. As I mentioned in my article on Moises Sierra, it comes down to how the Blue Jays decide to allocate their resources – and by that I mean both money and prospects. The team won’t be able to upgrade second base, left field, designated hitter, and two spots in the rotation entirely from outside the organization, some plugs will be filled from within. Adeiny Hechavarria isn’t the best option for second base, but he’s really not a bad one either.

March 8, 2011; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop

There are certain decisions that teams and managers make that make you shake your head some times. It seems to me that for the second time since he’s been a Blue Jays player, Adeiny Hechavarria has been set up for failure by this organization. With little regard for how his mental state of mind, they’ve thrown him to the wolves, likely to send him down with a burst confidence level that may take a while to rebuild.

What am I talking about? First, it was the language. The Jays let Hechavarria down was when they failed to have a translator with him when he began his minors career with the Jays in HiA Dunedin. At the time, he was 21 years old and in a new country for the first time. He couldn’t speak the language of the land, and had to feel isolated. In baseball terms, the result was little interaction between a non-Spanish speaking coaching staff in Dunedin and Hechavarria. In plain English, he was left out to dry. After a .193/.217/.292 start over 167 PA, someone in the organization finally took note of it, spread the news, and got him promoted to AA, where the coaching staff did speak Spanish. The result? A much improved .273/.305/.360 line despite playing against better competition

The second instance of letting Hechavarria down just happened over the weekend. Having NEVER played 3B as a professional player, he was called up from AAA to play the position. While he didn’t make any errors on the day, he had to feel out of place playing in a new location he’d never seen, a new position he’d never played, and in a spot in the lineup (9th) that he rarely if ever hit from. Talk about setting a player up for failure. He struck out twice and walked once in his ABs on the day and didn’t look entirely lost over his last few ABs. But, in my estimation, leaving him at SS would have allowed him to concentrate a lot more on hitting and getting through the day at the plate instead of taking on the pressure of fielding the hot corner.  (more…)

March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop

All Jays fans would love to dream, as Jose Bautista has, of the Jays contending for a playoff spot in 2012. It’s definitely still viable, as no single team has pulled away from the pack enough to make it unlikely for any other team to catch that last playoff position in the American League. The Jays currently sit 3 GB of the last Wild Card spot. However, every team has to be honest with itself and wonder, out loud, if we are going to chase a playoff spot this season, what’s the best way to go about it?

For the Toronto Blue Jays of 2012, the answer is not definite, but is now leaning towards the “Go Young” way. The injuries the team has faced of late, along with the fact that it is faced with so many holes to fill in its lineup, really leaves little other choice.

Obviously, the main issues that have caused the Jays to slide back in the chase for a playoff spot are the multitude of injuries the team has been forced to deal with. The latest two injuries, Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie, really hurt the team most because they’re the first injuries to regular every day players, and they are so vital to the Jays scoring runs. (more…)

Given his inconsistent history with Atlanta, it’s surprising that we haven’t seemed to hear more about Escobar’s struggles so far. From here, it’s a good thing, though; the Braves ran him out at the first sign of trouble, rather than looking at his history and writing off the struggles as a blip on the radar. The Blue Jays went out of their way to welcome Escobar to the organization when he was traded here in 2010 (perhaps that’s part of why we haven’t heard anything) and the club is continuing to take a thoughtful approach. But let’s take a look at the numbers and see what’s gone wrong so far.

We mentioned a .628 OPS for Escobar so far, compared to his more respectable .782 last year. His isolated power is currently .082, down from a career mark of .110, and his 3.79 groundball-to-flyball ratio is much lower than his career 2.14 mark. Watching him hit, we can see more ground balls and not as many balls driven into the gaps, which is what he needs to do to be successful. I was among those who were scratching their heads when John Farrell flipped him and Johnson in the order, because while getting KJ more at bats was a definite plus, I thought that, given what we had seen from him so far this season, Escobar would be a near lock for grounding into a double play with a man on first. Lyle Overbay‘s frustrating ground balls to second? Same idea, other side of the diamond.

Apr 29, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar (5) hits a double in the 7th inning against the Seattle Mariners at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Mariners 7-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Not only is Escobar not hitting for as much power, he’s not as patient as he has been in the past. His walk rate is at a paltry 5.3%, which is just over half of his career mark of 9.4%. As someone who hits early in the order, the Jays need him to be drawing walks and seeing more pitches, which is something he has done well previously. Yunel has typically been a very patient hitter, so it’s troubling to see that he’s not getting on-base as often. It could possibly mean that he’s pressing and feeling the frustration of not hitting as well. Additionally, his .274 BABIP is .274 compared to his career mark of .312 is not terribly low, but it’s still a slight variation from the norm, so we can’t write off any slow start to him being unlucky.

Thankfully, Escobar hasn’t brought any struggles at the plate into his play in the field. He has been dependable with his glove as usual, and his 13.4 UZR/150 backs that up. While that’s probably unsustainable, it’s still an excellent sign, and a big part of why the Jays have been continuing to play him every day. Defense is obviously still an organizational priority at that position, and continuing to play Escobar when he struggles to hit shows the value they place on it and allows him to relax and figure out his issues without looking over his shoulder — an issue that we’ve seen with other managers at other positions on the diamond.

Looking at the statistics, we can see that there are some unusual indicators from Escobar’s hitting so far. Fewer walks and less power suggest a player who might be pressing some at the plate, though perhaps it’s a normal monthly variation that we’d see over the course of a season (like, say, Escobar’s September last year). Personally, I’d say it’s still early yet to be very concerned about it. He’s 9-for-20 (.450) in his last five games with a 1.126 OPS, and he has hit safely in nine of his last 10 games, so he should return to his norm before long. The Blue Jays’ patient, measured approach with their players helps if one is inconsistent, and in a month or so, we’ll all forget this happened. If Escobar continues to struggle deeper into the season, then perhaps we can start to wonder if and when the much-hyped Adeiny Hechavarria will be ready to go.

What do you think? Should we worry about Yunel Escobar, or is it too early to be hitting the panic button?

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Apr 14, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Kelly Johnson (2) bats against the Baltimore Orioles at the Rogers Centre. The Orioles beat the Blue Jays 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Johnson was a free agent this past offseason, and after the market wasn’t quite as inviting as his agent may have hoped, he accepted the Blue Jays’ offer of arbitration to guarantee his return to the club for the 2012 season. In mid-January, the two sides agreed to terms on a one year contract worth $6.375 million, giving the Blue Jays a reliable second baseman for the season while also giving Johnson another crack at free agency as a 31-year-old. The deal didn’t come without some uproar, as fans less familiar with the Major League Baseball salary arbitration system pointed to his .222/.304/.413 (.717 OPS) slash line in 2011, and asked, rather loudly, how such a performance is deserving of such a significant salary.

Now three weeks into the season, the naysayers have been silenced, as Johnson has been the Blue Jays’ most productive hitter early on. While his .246 average entering Wednesday isn’t spectacular, he has been incredibly disciplined at the plate, with a team leading 18.4% walk rate – yes, ahead of even Jose Bautista. Power has always been a big part of Johnson’s game and that trend has continued, as his 213 ISO is second on the team, behind only Edwin Encarnacion. While it’s far too early to look at his defensive metrics for this season, he has passed the eye test with flying colors, emphasized by his ridiculous backhand glove flip to first base against the Royals last weekend.

In summary, he’s been really, really good. FanGraphs has Johnson at 0.8 WAR already, while Baseball Reference views him in an even brighter light, crediting him with 0.9 WAR. We are 10.5% through the season entering Wednesday’s game against Baltimore, which puts Johnson on pace for 7.6 WAR or 8.6 WAR, depending upon whose system you prefer. “On-pace” is often a silly phrase, particularly when extrapolating from such a small sample, but it can give an idea of how well a player has performed. 4-5 WAR is typical for an All Star-caliber season, while 7-8 WAR is the range for an MVP-type campaign. Early season disclaimers aside, any time a player on your favorite team is performing on that level, you have to take notice.

Such production is both a blessing and a curse for a team like the Blue Jays, who, by all accounts, are on the fringe of playoff contention, but may not necessarily see the promised land this year. As previously mentioned, Johnson is playing out a one-year contract, which means someone, Toronto or otherwise, will be paying for this performance next year and beyond. Without a doubt, the Blue Jays front office would have greatly preferred to see this production while under a team-friendly long-term contract or during a season in which postseason baseball was more of a guarantee.

If Johnson keeps up this pace, or something close to it (which, given his tremendous 2010 season, is very possible), what does Toronto do with him? It’s doubtful Johnson’s camp would have interest in working on an in-season extension so long as he continues to play as well as he has, so the Blue Jays appear to have two choices: trade him at the deadline if the team is out of contention, or keep him until the offseason and pay him on the highly competitive open market.

With the lack of talented second base prospects in the system, the trade deadline option seems like a rather poor idea on first glance. In reality, it comes down to timelines. If the Blue Jays’ front office feels like their window to contend for championships opens in 2014, perhaps they’re hesitant to give Johnson four years, as he’d be an expensive league-average player in the latter half of the deal when the team is seeking those playoff berths. If that is the shared belief of the front office, then a trade becomes more of a viable option. It’s impossible to suggest what kind of a return the team would get four months in advance, but it’s fair to say it would be substantial if he continues to produce like he has here in April.

If the Blue Jays prove to be legitimate contenders this season and either make, or only nearly miss, the playoffs, then the team is almost forced to make a genuine effort to re-sign Johnson, though nothing is guaranteed with the demands he could have and the competition from 29 other teams.

To get a better of idea of how much he might cost, we need to look at contracts given out to other above average second baseman over the past few seasons, and try and find the best comparables.

Seven recently signed contracts by second basemen, with WAR from FanGraphs, and contract information from Baseball Prospectus.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top five contracts given out were to players still under team control, as savvy front offices don’t usually let their elite talent reach the open market as free agents. Johnson’s situation is a bit different from most of the second baseman on the list though, as he has experienced a very inconsistent career, and is already on his third team, something no other player on the list can compare to. Kinsler is a consistent MVP-caliber player, while Infante and Hill were mostly average players before receiving those contracts, so the three should be quickly ruled out as comparables.

The remaining four deals averaged 4.75 years in length, but were also given out to players who averaged only 29.3 years of age. With Johnson entering his age 31 season in 2013, some of that length can be shaved off, with three years – or perhaps three years with an option – being more logical targets. The salary is highly dependent upon his total production – which we don’t yet know – but as an estimate, let’s says he slightly exceeds his career-best 2010 season, and finishes at 6.0 fWAR, the same number Brandon Phillips achieved before signing his mega deal. Phillips’ popularity in Cincinnati and historical success (he averaged 4.0 WAR in his six full seasons) earned him the length of the deal, but the annual salary of $12 million was due mostly to his huge 2011 season and is a number I feel would be a fair comparable for Johnson should he perform to the 6.0 fWAR estimate I placed upon him. While that number may seem awfully high, the baseball economy is on the rise, and teams aren’t afraid to spend money on talent.

Should the production continue, would a three-year, $36 million deal plus an option be too much for Alex Anthopoulos to pay? With Johnson’s inconsistent history it’s certainly a bit of a gamble, but if the team proves to be a contender, the lack of a viable in-house alternative almost forces his hand.

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According to SI’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter), Kelly Johnson has accepted the Jays’ arbitration offer and will return to Toronto in 2012, likely earning a raise on the $5.85 million he earned this past season.

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Aaron Hill (30) – $8M club option for ’12 and $8M club option for ’13 – Type B FA (more…)