In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The second part of the series will look at the corner infield positions. I have combined both first and third base because, in reality, true first base prospects are few and far between. Systems are lucky to have one, and creating a list of four or five would be near impossible. As such, the corner infield positional primer is going to be focused on the third base position, where Toronto has a wealth of talent in the lower levels. Baseball America ranks power as the number one priority in a third base prospect, and that’s something this list has plenty of. Like the catcher position, speed is deemed the least important, as the defensive plays a third baseman makes are reaction based, not range based. The middle three tools in order of important are hitting, fielding, and arm strength, though Major League Baseball front offices appear to be shifting towards the defensive priorities.

• Top corner infield prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Brett Lawrie
• Corner Infielders in 2012 Top 30: 3
• Corner Infield WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Edwin Encarnacion (7.7), Scott Rolen (6.2)

The King in the North

Mitch Nay – 2012 team: N/A

Mitch Nay poses at the 6th annual Power Showcase, representing Arizona in the home run derby that took place in Chase Field.

In reality, as he has zero professional at-bats under his belt, Nay should fall into the Remember the Name or On the Rise categories. Unfortunately, as last year’s top third base prospect took a huge step backwards in 2012, a void has been created that Nay is being thrust into. The Blue Jays drafted Nay near the end of the supplemental first round of the 2012 draft, agreeing to terms with the 58th overall pick to a contract that included an above-slot one million dollar bonus. Playing for Hamilton High School down in Arizona, Nay started off the year very slowly, with scouts of the belief he was trying to do too much for his team. As he settled down, he picked things up substantially leading up to the draft, earning the Gatorade Player of the Year award for Arizona, and receiving a first-to-second round draft grade.

Nay has a very wide base at the plate, and despite having ample length at 6-foot-3, he has a bit of a crouched stance. He stands slightly open to see the pitcher better, and holds his hands low. Nay has a substantial stride as he prepares his swing, and the huge power ceiling becomes evident when he follows through with excellent bat speed. He spins his hips well, boosting his power to the pull side, but the raw strength in Nay’s 195 pound frame allows him to go the opposite way with authority as well. Like many power hitters, he’s giving a little up in terms of plate coverage, and pitchers began to pick up on that during his high school career. They began to throw him more breaking balls and offspeed pitches, forcing Nay to make adjustments. He did just that, as with a 4.30 GPA in high school, he’s a smart kid who can recognize and resolve things quickly. Blue Jays fans will need to hope that he can maintain a healthy enough average to allow his game-changing power to come into play.

His defensive future is a little less clear, as while he has a great arm, he’s not overly athletic. Nay’s lateral quickness is acceptable, but his straight line speed is below average. He has a chance to stick at third base if he can improve his first step, but if not, a move to one of the outfield corners may be in store down the road. Scouts believe he could handle right field well thanks to his arm strength, but he’s a much more valuable prospect at third base. Given the Blue Jays history with handling high school hitters, Nay is all but guaranteed to see a low level short season assignment when he makes his debut in 2013. He won’t turn 20 until next September, and while that allows the Gulf Coast League to be a possibility, the organization appears to have found a nice launching pad for prospects down in Bluefield. High school draft picks who sign too late to play in their draft years have almost exclusively been assigned to Bluefield the following year, and I expect Nay to follow suit next season.

The Question Mark

Matthew Dean – 2012 team: Rookie-Bluefield
167 AB, .222/.282/.353 (.635 OPS), 8 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 3 SB, 12/60 BB/K

Dean played for the Bluefield Blue Jays during the 2012 season (Image from Bleacher Report)

While Dean was just a 13th round pick in the 2011 draft, the slot wasn’t indicative of his true talent level. As a high school hitter with plenty of tools and a strong college commitment, many teams shied away when a bold move was in order. He continued to fall, at which point many front offices likely began to wonder if other teams knew something they didn’t about his signability, and round after round they continued to take a pass. That ended with Toronto, who, after selecting him, agreed to terms on a deal that included a signing bonus worth 737,500 dollars. Under the old draft regulations, that bonus is roughly in line with a 2nd round pick, which is where most draft pundits had him ranked based upon talent. With such a significantly over-slot deal, the Commissioner’s Office held back the contract announcement until deadline day, delaying Dean’s professional debut until this past summer.

“Colossally underwhelming” may be too feeble of a phrase to describe that debut, as Dean was completely overmatched for much of the year. The season started out on a positive note, as he hit .290/.389/.484 in nine June games. While perhaps a tad above what even the most optimistic fan could have hoped, it was roughly in the ball park for the type of production people thought he was capable of. Last winter I predicted a .290/.350/.480 line for Dean’s Bluefield season, and I was feeling pretty good about myself, at least until the calendar flipped to July. During Summer’s peak, Dean plummeted, with a .239/.280/.423 slash line in 21 July games. Contact became an increasing problem, as he struck out 27 times against just three walks. His confidence appeared to take a hit, as he closed out the year with a dismal .169/.229/.215 line in August.

Making contact was always a bit of a long term question mark for Dean, but to see those troubles become so emphatic in just Rookie ball is a bit disheartening. He meets the traditional third base profile quite well, as he generates a lot of power from his swing, grading out by most scouts as a plus tool thanks to unquestionable bat speed and an uppercut swing. He starts from a very even and level stance, with his feet square to the pitcher and a sound base in the box. Dean has just the slightest of toe taps for timing, which is a bit surprising given that many power-first hitters like to gear up with a big leg lift. He does have some bat wrap prior to his swing, which is something hitters do to sell out for more power. The drawback is that in lengthens your swing and makes you more susceptible to good breaking balls or high velocity fastballs, something the stat line above suggests may have taken place.

Dean has some defensive chops, as he played a lot of shortstop for his Texas high school. His lack of speed forced the move to third, but he carried over a plus caliber throwing arm. The transition is still a work in progress, as he’s learning how much less time he has a third base and how important the first step is. Dean’s 2013 assignment will be interesting, as the Blue Jays surely know how crippling it can be to have a prospect repeat a short season league. Despite his poor performance as the season rolled on, the organization is almost forced to push Dean up to Vancouver. Another bad season could all but seal his status as a non prospect.

On the Rise

Gustavo Pierre – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
278 AB, .252/.302/.414 (.716 OPS), 14 2B, 8 3B, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 8 SB, 16/79 BB/K

Pierre, playing third base for the Lansing Lugnuts during the 2012 season (Image courtesy Tavora of “The Girl’s Guide to the Blue Jays”)

Gustavo Pierre was signed as an International Free Agent out of the Dominican Republic back in July of 2008. He received a substantial signing bonus of 700 thousand dollars, and while he has flashed potential, his career to date has been filled with frustrations. The 2012 season was Pierre’s second visit to Lansing, as after a brutal first half in 2011, he was demoted to Bluefield where he closed out the season. His second go-around started just as poorly, as he managed a futile .187 average through his first 22 games in May and June. The team stuck with him this time, and he rewarded them with a .276/.319/.458 slash line in the season’s final three months, carrying the offense for extended periods of time. Age is often neglected when discussing Pierre, as while it feels like he’s been in the system forever, he won’t turn 21 until after Christmas, and has always been young for the levels he’s played.

Pierre was originally signed as a shortstop, but his ever increasing size made the chances of that being a long term option slim to none. His defensive actions sped up the need for a move, as he simply didn’t have the grace or smoothness required to be an acceptable shortstop. Minor league fielding numbers are next to useless, but his 87 errors in 181 career games at shortstop speak volumes about his struggles. Pierre is still very raw, but his play style and physique match up much better over at the hot corner. While he had Tommy John surgery back in 2008, his arm strength has since returned to him, and making throws across the diamond has not been an issue thus far.

Pierre’s real potential lies in his bat, and if he can eventually reach his offensive capabilities, any defensive woes will be long forgotten. He has the ideal body size at 6-foot-2 and 185 lbs, and he has the quick twitch muscles that are so often found in baseball’s superstars. He’s long, lean, and athletic, and takes advantage of that on the offensive side of the ball. Pierre’s stance is very quiet, and he holds his hands high as he prepares for the ball. He keeps his weight on his back foot, but after tapping his lead foot for timing, his weight transfer is severely lacking. Often times he looks like he’s swinging off his back foot, which makes any kind of power generation extremely difficult. Pierre also has issues with breaking balls, as he can get over-eager and accidentally allow his front shoulder to fly open. Mechanical adjustments are absolutely needed – and likely were being implemented as the season wore on – but there is some serious power potential.

While you can’t ignore the first half numbers, Pierre did enough in the second half to warrant a promotion to Dunedin next spring. It will be a real test for him, as he’ll be expected to build upon the success he found this past summer. The environment won’t be much of a reprieve either, as the Florida State League has proven to be very pitcher-friendly.

Steady ‘til Stuck

Kellen Sweeney – 2012 team(s): Single-A Lansing, Low-A Vancouver
385 AB, .210/.318/.309 (.627 OPS), 17 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB, 58/77 BB/K

Vancouver Canadians third baseman Kellen Sweeney works on the call to the pitcher during practice at Nat Bailey Stadium. Photograph by: Ward Perrin

I don’t want to say I’m emotionally invested in Kellen Sweeney, but he had such a rough start to his career that I couldn’t help but pull for him this season. Unfortunately, the production didn’t match my enthusiasm, as the former second round pick stunk it up over the first two months of the season. While playing for Single-A Lansing, Sweeney managed to hit just .179/.297/.207. While the walk rate was impressive, the contact and power numbers were abysmal. In 43 games, he totaled just two doubles and one triple, for a historically poor 28 ISO. For comparison, among Toronto’s regulars, Yunel Escobar had the lowest ISO at 91. Omar Vizquel, who is a 45 year old utility infielder, even bested Sweeney with a 46 ISO. That’s how little power he showed with the Lugnuts.

In reality, while he’s not a power hitter by any stretch of the imagination, he’s not that bad either. He showed as much after a demotion to Vancouver, where he had a much more respectable 138 ISO. Sweeney bats with an open, tight, and upright stance, holding his hands near the ear hole of his helmet. His body looks very stiff as he awaits the delivery, but as the pitch approaches he takes a lengthy stride forward and follows through with a level and controlled swing from the left side of the plate. He’s very patient in looking for his pitch, as he doesn’t have the raw bat speed to make a mid-swing correction if he guesses wrong. The bat speed and his thin frame combine to limit his power projection, though his athleticism and willingness to use the gaps should create plenty of doubles and triples to boost the slugging percentage. His baseball IQ and instincts are exceptional, and allow him to do things like advance from first to third on a single that don’t necessarily show up on stat sheets.

Those instincts also aid in his defensive play, as he has proven to be an above average defender at the reaction-driven hot corner. Arm strength is a bit of an issue with Sweeney, as like Pierre, he’s undergone Tommy John surgery in the past. Sweeney’s was done back in 2009, but even after three years of recovery his arm is still only a fringe-average tool. When looking at the whole package, it’s a bit curious why Sweeney is a third baseman at all, as his skill set jibes much better with the second base profile. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Blue Jays made such a move in the near future, as the system is significantly more clogged at third base than it is at second base. Getting a second chance did wonders for Gustavo Pierre, and I expect the Blue Jays to act accordingly with Kellen Sweeney. Injuries and poor results have stalled his development, so another disappointing showing at Lansing in 2013 could result in his career ending before it really even got started.

Despite all this, those of us sitting comfortably in our temperature controlled offices, houses, and apartments expect the players to have consistently strong seasons from the beginning of April through to the end of August. In reality, it rarely happens. Hot streaks and cold streaks are the normality, with players hoping when all is said that the hot will outweigh the cold. Listed below are eight players. The first four are Blue Jays prospects who overcame the conditions and battled through the season, coming on at their strongest in the second half. The second group of Blue Jays prospects are those who got off to a hot start, but failed to carry it through to the end of the season.

The pre- and post-All Star designations are based upon the individual league that the prospects played in. For example, the Midwest League All Star break is in late June, while the Eastern League All Star break takes place in early July. For players who split the season between two minor league levels, the separation is from the level at which they were playing when they experienced the All Star break. As short season players have no first half, they’re omitted from consideration for this article.

Second Half Studs

The prospects with the best second half, with images courtesy the US Presswire, The Girl's Guide to the Blue Jays, Sports Road Trips, and Ward Perrin of Canada.com

RHP Noah Syndergaard (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 3-2, 43.2 IP, 44 H, 19 ER, 3 HR, 15 BB, 57 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.75 K/9
• Post All-Star: 5-3, 60.0 IP, 37 H, 11 ER, 0 HR, 16 BB, 65 K, 1.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.75 K/9

Noah Syndergaard opened the year pitching in tandem with Anthony DeSclafani. They alternated who started the game and who relieved, and as I wrote in detail months ago, Syndergaard didn’t handle pitching out of the bullpen very well whatsoever. As such, it’s no surprise that once he was freed from the clutches of relief work in the second half, his numbers really took off. His 65 post All-Star strikeouts were the third most in the Blue Jays system, behind Javier Avendano and Justin Nicolino, though both pitchers had a significant inning advantage. The word “overhyped” was starting to get thrown around in prospects circles when Syndergaard’s ERA was sitting around the 4.00 mark, but his downright filthy second half performance should cement his position as an elite pitching prospect. The jump from Single-A to High-A is significant, so Syndergaard will need to have a focused offseason if he hopes to have another dominant season for Dunedin – and possibly New Hampshire – in 2013.

3B Gustavo Pierre (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 52 AB, .135/.224/.250 (.474 OPS), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 6/16 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 226 AB, .279/.321/.451 (.772 OPS), 13 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 5 SB, 10/63 BB/K

Gustavo Pierre opened the 2011 season with Lansing, but after hitting .187/.244/.262 in 56 games while playing porous defense at shortstop, he was demoted down to Bluefield. He finished the year very strongly, but when assignments came this spring, Pierre’s was to extended spring training instead of full season ball. Thanks to injuries and the poor performance of another player on this list, however, he got a second chance with the Lugnuts at the end of May. The season quickly became reminiscent of 2011, as through his first 15 games he had an unsettling .474 OPS. The team stuck with him this time, and it paid off in the second half, as Pierre was one of the Lugnuts’ most consistent hitters in July and August. The decrease in stress from shifting down the defensive spectrum to third base likely helped substantially, as while the 20 year old is still extremely raw in the field, his body type is much better suited to the hot corner.

RHP Danny Barnes (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 17 SV, 27.2 IP, 28 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 28 K, 2.28 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.11 K/9
• Post All-Star: 17 SV, 23.2 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 35 K, 0.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 13.31 K/9

After a dominant full season debut with Lansing in 2011, I ranked Barnes as the Blue Jays’ 29th best prospect; not an insignificant honor for a relief pitcher in such a deep system. Things didn’t get off quite so well with Dunedin in the first half of 2012. Sure, the ERA was sexy and he was piling up saves, but the strikeout rate was well down from 2011 (13.50 K/9), and way too many runners were getting on base. The way he was pitching, an implosion seemed inevitable. Something happened around the All-Star break though, as in the second half of the season Barnes pitched like a man possessed. His strikeout rate returned to its previous level of dominance, and he allowed just 13 base runners in 22 games. Barnes’ stellar finish to the season guarantees a Double-A assignment next spring, with the major leagues a distinct possibility in the not so distant future.

3B Kellen Sweeney (Single-A Lansing, Low-A Vancouver)

• Pre All-Star: 117 AB, .188/.314/.222 (.536 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 21/27 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 268 AB, .220/.319/.347 (.666 OPS), 15 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 5 SB, 37/50 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney was the sleeper pick amongst many Blue Jays fans entering the 2012 season. He was a second round pick in the 2010 draft, but thanks to a late contract agreement and a serious wrist injury in 2011, he had appeared in just 27 games through his first two seasons. The team knew they needed to get the 20 year olds career moving in the right direction, so they handed him a bold Lansing assignment. It didn’t take long to realize Sweeney wasn’t ready, as he was simply awful through the first two months of the season. Gustavo Pierre took his roster spot, and Sweeney was sent to extended spring training to await short season ball. He has been significantly better with Vancouver in the second half, with his OPS improving each month from June through August. Sweeney should prepare himself for a second crack at the Midwest League next spring, because a lot will be riding on his performance.

Second Half Duds

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 285 AB, .256/.338/.439 (.777 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 10 SB, 26/61 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 204 AB, .240/.293/.343 (.636 OPS), 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 14 SB, 11/39 BB/K

Jake Marisnick had a very strong start to the season in High-A Dunedin. While the numbers were down compared to his breakout 2011 season with Lansing, he was still at or around the .800 OPS mark for much of his time in the Florida State League, which is quite an accomplishment. The FSL is a notoriously difficult place to hit, and Marisnick’s performance was accentuated by the painful-to-watch struggles of the corner outfielders to his left and right. Things went substantially downhill after a promotion to the Eastern League, as at times Marisnick looked completely overmatched. If not for a strong closing week, his second half OPS would have been below .600. He still has all the tools in the world and is looked upon very favorably in the scouting community, but he will have a chance at statistical redemption when he represents the Blue Jays in the Arizona Fall League later this year.

RHP Aaron Sanchez (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 6-0, 47.0 IP, 24 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 28 BB, 53 K, 0.77 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.15 K/9
• Post All-Star: 2-5, 43.1 IP, 40 H, 21 ER, 3 HR, 23 BB, 44 K, 4.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.14 K/9

Fluff pieces were aplenty about Aaron Sanchez in the first half, and I was guilty of more than a few. The above line makes it readily apparent why – he truly was filthy. The scouting reports were just as glowing, as scouts were more than willing to label Sanchez’ curveball as one of the best in minor league baseball. His 97 mph capable fastball is pretty nice, too. Control and command have always been the question with Sanchez, and they became a big problem in the second half, particularly on the command end. His walk rate remained similar, but the pitches entering the zone weren’t going exactly where he wanted. Instead of pounding down like he did in the first half (.156 opponents average, 2.76 GO/AO, 0 HR), his location drifted upwards, leading to a huge increase in hitability (.252 opponents average, 1.82 GO/AO, 3 HR). Sanchez’ failure to finish his pitches suggests this is a case of fatigue, as the right hander threw just 54.1 innings in 2011. While the second half numbers are disappointing, the experience should better prepare him for yet another workload increase next season.

RHP John Stilson (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 5-1, 76.1 IP, 75 H, 24 ER, 2 HR, 29 BB, 64 K, 2.83 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.55 K/9
• Post All-Star: 0-3, 28.0 IP, 35 H, 21 ER, 6 HR, 13 BB, 27 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 8.68 K/9

John Stilson was one of the biggest question marks in the farm system entering the season, and the Blue Jays’ handling of the right hander supplied few answers. Stilson suffered a serious shoulder injury in his final college season, and there were doubts he’d be able to start the year on time. He did, and the team pushed him right into the High-A rotation where he had an excellent first half. The strikeout rate was merely average, but for a player making his professional debut, the results were more than satisfactory. Stilson received a mid-June promotion to Double-A, where things quickly unraveled. The move to the bullpen at the beginning of August likely tied in to an innings cap, so perhaps the drop in performance was fatigue related. Stilson will return to New Hampshire to open 2013, and if the Blue Jays have any sense about them, it will be in a permanent relief role. It speaks volumes when a college pitcher struggles to reach the 100 inning plateau in the minor leagues.

LF Marcus Knecht (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 219 AB, .228/.328/.438 (.766 OPS), 16 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 31/72 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 233 AB, .193/.277/.343 (.620 OPS), 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB, 19/74 BB/K

A 3rd round pick in the 2010 draft, Marcus Knecht established himself on the prospect radar with a big season for Lansing in 2011, particularly for his combination of power (199 ISO) and plate discipline (12.7% walk rate). He joined the aforementioned Marisnick in Dunedin, with high expectations. Like Marisnick, Knecht had a solid albeit unspectacular first half. His batting average plummeted due to a soaring strikeout rate, but his power and plate discipline kept his overall batting line respectable. Things got worse in the second half, as not only did his contact rate take yet another step backwards, but his usually strong accessory statistics fell flat as well. The overall season line is rather unsightly, as Knecht was just barely able to keep his on base percentage above the .300 mark. While a Double-A assignment next spring isn’t out of the question, his second half was so poor that the Blue Jays might decide Knecht needs to prove himself capable of hitting High-A pitching for a couple of months.

1. CF D.J. Davis (BLU): 29 AB, 9 H, .310/.394/.552 (.946 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 SB, 3/7 BB/K

D.J. Davis was Toronto's number one pick in the 2012 draft (Image courtesy PerfectGame.org)

The Blue Jays number one pick in last June appears to have taken a real liking to Bluefield. Since being promoted up from the Gulf Coast League in mid-August, Davis has filled up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. This week was no different, as he reached base in each of his seven games, and reached at least twice in five of those seven. With his on-base percentage sitting at a lovely .394 for the week, his legs took over, as Davis racked up four more stolen bases, giving him a total of 24 in 55 games. That’s roughly a 70 stolen base pace over the course of a full season. That’s what scouts call 80 speed. The most pleasant part of Davis’ debut has been the power, as while few called him a slap hitter out of the draft, no one suggested a 148 ISO in year one either. Davis has done just that, with 18 extra base hits, including five home runs.

2. RHP Javier Avendano (VAN): 1-0, 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 15 K

Why is Javier Avendano still pitching in the Northwest League? His two starts this week continued a trend of dominance that dates back over a month. Since the 16th of July, Avendano has allowed just four earned runs in 47 innings – a 0.77 ERA. The peripherals have been just as strong, as he struck out 55 and walked just 13. He’s second in the league in ERA and WHIP, and first in strikeouts – twenty ahead of the second place pitcher, Victor Sanchez of the Mariners, who is a top prospect in his own right. Avendano has proven himself in both Lansing and Vancouver, and if I had some input on the minor league decision making, he would have been promoted to Dunedin a month ago. Avendano has been the Northwest League pitcher of the week for two weeks running, and given the numbers above, a third consecutive title is likely headed his way.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 0-0, 9 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 11 K

Last week’s hottest prospect slips to third place this week, due mostly to some shaky command in his August 25th start. Less important than the three walks was his pitch count, as Nolin threw 81 in just four innings, forcing the manager to pull him earlier than we all would have liked. This late in the minor league season, with nearly every pitcher nursing a bit of arm soreness, there was no reason to send him out for the fifth after four stressful innings. Even so, his August 20th start was more than enough to give him a high ranking, as he struck out eight Binghamton batters in five innings, allowing just one run on four hits. With the playoffs well out of reach, the Fisher Cats have just eight days left in their season. Nolin is probably looking at one more start, and at just 4.2 innings shy of 100 for the year, you know he’d love to reach the century mark.

4. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 25 AB, .320/.452/.400 (.852 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 6/3 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney is having the best month of his young career, and is showing Blue Jays fans the talent that made him a second round pick back in the 2010 draft. Sweeney has continued to do what he does best, reaching base in 20 of 24 August games. It hasn’t just been walks, as he’s hit and even hit with some authority. Sweeney has 26 hits in those 24 games, 10 of which have gone for extra base hits. In total, his August slash line is up to .292/.388/.461, which is exceptional production from the hot corner. His overall Vancouver line has risen up to respectability, sitting at .232/.339/.382 through 63 games. A month ago, it was looking like Sweeney was going to fall off my top 30 prospect list altogether, but he’s done enough here in August to tread water and earn himself another look in 2013.

5. RHP John Stilson (NH): 0-0, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

All season I have been pushing the “John Stilson to the bullpen” card, and after a short stint on the disabled list earlier this month, the Blue Jays have finally responded. Stilson simply doesn’t have the mechanics or durability to pitch 200 innings year in and year out – the risk of shoulder aggravation is too great. The 2011 third round pick seems to have taken to the relief role quite well, as in his five total appearances (seven innings), Stilson has allowed just eight base runners and one run, while striking out nine. He even earned his first career save on August 17th – the first of many, I hope. While closing for Texas A&M his stuff played up extremely well, and if that has carried over to pro ball, the Blue Jays could have a very electric reliever on their hands.

6. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Nicolino has appeared on five consecutive hot sheets, which speaks volumes about the type of season the left hander has had down in Lansing. I can’t say enough about the reliability of Nicolino, as since being moved exclusively to the rotation on June 11th, he’s pitched at least four innings in every game, and at least five in 12 of his last 13 starts. In the statistical age we currently live in, durability often gets overlooked, but there’s something to be said for a pitcher who can go out every fifth day and give your team a good chance to win. The fact Nicolino has found this consistency at just 20 years of age makes it that much more impressive. With another week left in the season, plus the playoffs, Nicolino could easily find himself approaching 130 innings before all is said and done. It’s not an insignificant jump (he had just 61 innings in 2011), but as he doesn’t throw max effort on every pitch, the Blue Jays obviously feel Nicolino has the type of arm that can handle such a workload without substantial risk.

7. 2B Christian Lopes (VAN): 24 AB, .375/.423/.417 (.840 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB, 1/4 BB/K

Without a doubt, Christian Lopes has been the star hitter of short season ball in the Toronto organization. He skipped the Gulf Coast League and debuted with Bluefield, and after 49 exceptional games there, he received the promotion the Vancouver. Lopes hasn’t skipped a beat since setting foot on Canadian soil, as he has two or more hits in three of his five games for the club. Between the two levels, his overall season line is a well rounded .290/.347/.478. The Blue Jays may well have found their long term answer at second base, the problem is, at just 19 years old, Lopes is at least a few years away.

Honorable mention: Marcus Knecht (DUN)

1. RHP Anthony DeSclafani (LAN): 1-0, 17 IP, 15 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 14 K

Lansing right hander Anthony DeSclafani pitching for the University of Florida during the 2011 season (Rob Foldy, GaterCountry.com)

Since being separated from Noah Syndergaard, Anthony DeSclafani has flown under the prospect radar down in Lansing. Over the past two weeks, however, he’s been the most dominant arm on the staff. DeSclafani made three starts, and despite being fantastically dominant, the Lugnuts offense could only give him one win. He maintained his season long exceptional command, walking only two in his 17 innings, but displayed strikeout prowess we haven’t seen since he pitched in relief earlier this year. In July, DeSclafani struck out only 9 batters in 27 innings, a number he’s already bested in just three starts. He struck out seven on August 12th, which was the second highest total of his season (8, on May 17th). I still feel his ultimate future lies in the bullpen where his fastball/slider combination should allow him to flourish, but the fact the Blue Jays have kept him in the rotation to receive extra innings for development is a huge plus for the long term.

2. CF D.J. Davis (GCL): 25 AB, .240/.424/.440 (.864 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 SB, 5/11 BB/K

Toronto’s top pick in the 2012 draft has started his career off very smoothly. Davis’ athleticism was without question, but there was plenty to debate about his offensive game. He’s quelled some of those concerns early on, as he’s managed 11 extra base hits in 39 games as well as an acceptable .248 batting average. The speed has been as advertised, as with 18 stolen bases, he’s leading the Gulf Coast League. Complex league statistics are basically meaningless and should be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s good to see Davis having some success.

3. LF Marcus Knecht (DUN): 30 AB, .300/.417/.467 (.883 OPS), 5 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 SB, 3/9 BB/K

Knecht was the one of the three 2011 Lansing outfielders to make the jump to Dunedin this year, and was the median player in terms of production. Now in August, he’s the only of the three still with the team. Marisnick received his promotion to Double-A last month, while Crouse was demoted back to Single-A. The season has been a continuum of mediocrity for Knecht, as outside of a dominant May, he’s struggled to keep his OPS in the .700’s. His secondary stats (9.8 BB% and 182 ISO) have remained strong, but contact has been a serious issue, with his strikeout rate soaring to 28.9%. Knecht’s August has started with a bang; we’ll have to see if he can maintain it through to the end of the year.

4. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 41 AB, .268/.362/.488 (.850 OPS), 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 5/4 BB/K

Sweeney has been one of the system’s biggest disappointments this year, as many – myself included – were looking for him to take a big step forward. The Blue Jays were clearly onboard as well, as they assigned him to full season Lansing with only 25 career games under his belt. He was awful for the Lugnuts, and after a demotion he was even worse through his first few weeks in Vancouver. Sweeney has begun to turn things around, as with an .850 OPS to start August his overall Vancouver line is up to .212/.320/.364 (.684 OPS). His power has been far better than expected, particularly given the large dimensions of the park the Canadians play in, and the walks, as expected, are plentiful. There’s still a long way to go, but it’s good to see him finishing the year on a positive note.

5. RHP Javier Avendano (VAN): 2-0, 16 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 19 K

I still don’t really know what to make of Javier Avendano. He had four strong years in the Cardinals organization, and despite being just 21, they allowed him to be taken in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. With Toronto, Avendano opened the year in relief with Single-A Lansing, and performed very well. As a reward, the team decided to demote him to Vancouver, where he’s shifted to the rotation. The numbers improved, as evident by his dominance in August listed above, raising his season totals to a 1.53 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 10.60 K/9 through a career high 88.1 innings. His performance earned him the Northwest League pitcher of the week award. What the Blue Jays ultimately plan on doing with Avendano is a mystery, but he’s handled everything the team has thrown at him so far.

6. 2B Christian Lopes (BLU): 33 AB, .364/.364/.515 (.879 OPS), 5 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 0/3 BB/K

Lopes has been one of Bluefield most consistently productive hitters this season, which is significant given the insane prospect depth on the roster. His .813 OPS this year is better than that of Santiago Nessy (.730), Matt Dean (.657), Dickie Thon (.646), Dwight Smith Jr (.629), and Jacob Anderson (.603). A lot of that has been driven by his extra base power, as he’s first on the team in triples, and his doubles total (16) is twice the total of the team’s second highest player (Nessy, 8). Lopes was mostly overlooked when offseason prospect rankings were written, but should find himself in the top 30 this winter.

7. 1B Mike McDade (LAS): 45 AB, .356/.375/.511 (.886 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB, 2/5 BB/K

After being the lone offensive prospect in New Hampshire for much of the year, McDade finally received a promotion to Las Vegas. The problem is, d’Arnaud is injured, Snider and Thames were traded, and Gose, Sierra, Hechavarria, Cooper, and Gomes are in Toronto. Long story short, he’s once again in a very thin lineup. Big Mac has gotten off to a very hot start with the 51s, with five multi-hit games already in August. Unfortunately, McDade was placed on the minor league disabled list this week, so both his season – and the Las Vegas offense – take yet another blow.

8. RF Michael Crouse (LAN): 28 AB, .250/.364/.571 (.935 OPS), 0 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 5/8 BB/K

To say Crouse’s 2012 season has been a disappointment would be a colossal understatement. After producing an .827 OPS in the Midwest League last year – arguably the hardest of the minor leagues in which to hit – Crouse joined Knecht and Jake Marisnick in Dunedin, where he did next to nothing. In parts of three months, he maintained a batting average around the .200 mark with an on-base percentage below .300. Both his power and speed, which were superb last season, vanished. Even a demotion back to Lansing wasn’t enough to rekindle the spark – at least until this week. Crouse smashed three home runs, which is the greatest total of anyone on the hot sheet.

Honorable mention:
Jorge Vega-Rosado (BLU), Jesus Gonzalez (GCL), Justin Nicolino (LAN)

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 2-0, 11 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

Since mid-June, no one in the Blue Jays system has pitched better than Noah Syndergaard. Across his last five appearances – including two games this week – Syndergaard has allowed just 3 runs 25 innings, while striking out 29. He’s kept base runners to a minimum as well, with only 15 hits and 5 walks allowed. On July 8th he pitched 6 complete innings, which was a new career high for the big Texas right hander. After some early season inconsistency there was a lot of talk that Syndergaard had become overhyped and simply wasn’t as good as advertised, but the fact he’s been pitching at his best while finally getting stretched out with a starter’s workload speaks volumes about his true talent level. His switch from a curveball to a slider coincides with this incredible hot streak, and with such a powerful arm and 3/4 delivery the breaking ball does appear to suit him better. Syndergaard’s 80 strikeouts rank 5th in the Midwest League despite his inning total being between 15 and 35 lower than all the pitchers ahead and immediately behind him. He is a very real pitching prospect folks.

2. 2B Christian Lopes (BLU): 20 AB, .450/.476/.750 (1.226 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 1/4 BB/K

Lopes ranks on the hot sheet for the second time in three weeks thanks to a continual display of impressive power for a middle infielder. A thin Bluefield schedule limited him to five games this week, but he took full advantage of his playing time with four multi-hit efforts, each of which included one extra base hit. He completely filled up the stat sheet, with the aforementioned doubles and home run being complemented by a walk and a pair of stolen bases, his first two of the year. With Hechavarria not long for the minor leagues and Dickie Thon struggling badly over the past two years, Lopes could soon be in the discussion for Toronto’s top middle infield prospect.

3. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 27 AB, .407/.484/.704 (1.188 OPS), 0 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Anyone who is still simply attributing Hechavarria’s success to Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League is missing out on some legitimate and exciting development. Hechavarria played in seven games this week, and much like Christian Lopes down in Bluefield, he put up a nice variety of numbers across the board. His week was highlighted by his June 2nd game against Reno, as he went 3-for-5 with a pair of solo home runs. The season line is now up to .317/.367/.449, and while that obviously won’t translate to Toronto, it really doesn’t need to given his defensive proficiency. His .281/.326/.409 road slash line is probably a more accurate representation of his talent level at this point, and is a significant improvement upon the .687 OPS he produced last year in Double-A. If Hechavarria can generate a .700 OPS while hitting 9th in a major league lineup, he has boatloads of value.

4. LF Chris Hawkins (LAN): 28 AB, .464/.545/.607 (1.152 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 5/2 BB/K

Hawkins soared in April (.313 average, .767 OPS) and May (.327 average, .762 OPS), but completely fell apart in the month of June. He managed to hit only .160, and as a batting average dependent offensive player, his OPS plummeted to .437 for the month. After Jon Berti received a well deserved promotion to Dunedin, it appears as though Hawkins realized he need to shoulder the offensive load for the Lugnuts, as he came on extremely strong this week, including a pair of 4-for-4 games on the 6th and 8th. Hawkins produced a 174 ISO with Bluefield last season, and while the Midwest League is arguably the hardest place in all of minor league baseball to hit, his measly 76 ISO this season has been a gargantuan disappointment. It’s hard to argue his prospect stock has taken a bit of a hit this year.

5. C Yan Gomes (LAS): 23 AB, .304/.385/.739 (1.124 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, 3/3 BB/K

Gomes remains on fire as the trade deadline approaches, ranking on his second consecutive prospect hot sheet. He showed a lot of offensive diversification, with plenty of power, a trio of walks, and even a pair of stolen bases, tripling his season total. He’s actually hit better away from the friendly confines of Cashman Field, so prospective teams looking to find an offensive oriented catcher/third baseman can at least partially believe in the numbers he’s produced this year. If he remains within the organization, he could become a very valuable bench player for the Blue Jays. His catching background would allow the Blue Jays to play both Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia in the lineup at the same time, acting as a viable alternative should one of them suffer an injury during game action.

6. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 19 AB, .316/.409/.737 (1.146 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, 3/4 BB/K

The 2012 season has been a colossal disappointment for Sweeney, who I thought was poised for a breakout year after an injury riddled 2011. Sweeney opened the year with Single-A Lansing but was completely overmatched, hitting .179/.297/.207 in 43 games. The team pulled him back to extended spring training, where he worked at the complex until being assigned to Vancouver in mid-June. Sweeney started off just as poorly, with a .130/.311/.196 line in 14 June games, but has picked things up significantly here in July. His two home runs this week were his first since way back in August of 2010, and he’s continued to show his usual incredible plate discipline. I really hope this is a sign of things to come, as I’ve always felt Sweeney has far more talent than his statistics have suggested.

Honorable mention: Carlos Perez (LAN), Roberto Osuna (BLU), Santiago Nessy (BLU), Aaron Sanchez (LAN), Deck McGuire (NH), John Stilson (NH)

Lansing starter David Rollins breezed through a clean first inning, with back-to-back swinging strikeouts and a first-pitch groundout to open the game. He then erased a one-out double in a scoreless second, where he battled through four foul balls from Whitecaps right fielder Jason Krizan before striking him out on the eighth pitch of the at-bat.

After Rollins retired the leadoff batter in the third, Whitecaps third baseman Colin Kaline skied a 2-2 pitch into the outfield for what should have been the second out of the inning. Instead, Lugnuts right fielder Markus Brisker dropped the ball and Kaline advanced to second on the play, which was ruled a hit and not an error. Then, the next batter, West Michigan center fielder Chad Wright, hit a hard grounder on a 3-1 pitch right to Lugnuts first baseman K.C. Hobson, who bobbled the ball and couldn’t get to the bag in time. Hobson was charged with the error, and instead of returning to the dugout following a 1-2-3 inning, Rollins faced runners on the corners with one out.

Both runners quickly scored after a RBI double and a sacrifice fly, but Rollins ended the inning himself when he cut off the throw to the plate and tagged Whitecaps second baseman Brandon Loy, who was trying to advance to third on the play.

The crippling blow against Rollins, however, came in the fifth, when Whitecaps shortstop Eugenio Suarez roped a two-run double down the left field line to give West Michigan its first lead of the game. That was Rollins’ only real mistake of the game, though, as he pitched better than the four runs (three earned) on his line suggest. The left-hander wound up settling for a no-decision, as reliever Brandon Berl came on in the ninth and allowed a Javier Avendano walk to score to hand Avendano the loss.

The Lugnuts’ offense opened the scoring early and never quit in the losing effort, regaining the lead midway through the game and nearly tying things up in the bottom of the ninth. The top of the lineup paced Lansing’s 12-hit attack, as struggling leadoff hitter Kenny Wilson broke out to go 3-for-5 with a triple and a RBI to improve to 9-for-33 (.273) with an .844 OPS in his last 10 games, while three-hitter Kevin Pillar also went 3-for-5 with a triple, a stolen base and two RBI.

After hitting ninth on Tuesday night and entering play with a .198 average, third baseman Kellen Sweeney found himself hitting in the two-spot for only the second time this season, a possible effort from Lugnuts batting coach and interim manager Kenny Graham to get him back on track. The move paid off, as Sweeney had his most productive game offensively this season, going 2-for-4 with a walk. It was Sweeney’s first multi-hit game of the season, and the way he managed to salvage his night was impressive after grounding out and striking out in his first two at-bats.

After working the count to 3-1 in the fifth, Sweeney hit a bloop single to right field to score Wilson and get his first RBI of the night. Two pitches later, he took off for second base and stole his first bag of the season before coming around to score on Pillar’s triple. Sweeney continued to show his patience at the plate in the seventh, as he drew a two-out walk — his 15th of the year — to prolong the inning.

The 20-year-old got on base with two outs again in the bottom of the ninth, when he singled home Wilson to cut the Whitecaps’ lead to 7-6. He also showed some heads-up, aggressive baserunning, advancing safely from first to third on a hard hit liner to right field. Sweeney has shown great all-around defense at the hot corner so far this season and has showcased his great eye at the plate but has yet to show anything offensively, so hopefully Wednesday night was a step in the right direction for him.

- JM

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Left-hander Justin Nicolino and right-handers Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez lead the starting rotation as perhaps the best top-three in the entire Midwest League. Joining them and not to be overlooked are 2011 draft picks Anthony DeSclafani and David Rollins, while the bullpen will feature 2011 Lugnut Brandon Berl as well as other intriguing arms like Jesse Hernandez, Blake MacFarland, Ajay Meyer and Tyler Ybarra, though Meyer and Ybarra could be starters periodically throughout the year as well.

Catching-wise, I’m somewhat surprised that Carlos Perez will be returning. Though he did have a down year for the Lugnuts in 2011 getting used to both the colder weather and full-season ball, I would have that he would have been promoted anyway to Dunedin given the departure of A.J. Jimenez.

Overall, there’s a great group of fielders, as notable prospects Chino Vega and Kellen Sweeney will man the left side of Lansing’s infield while Chris Hawkins and Kevin Pillar will patrol the outfield.

Here’s the full list:

Pitchers

RHP Javier Avendano

RHP Brandon Berl

RHP Kramer Champlin

RHP Anthony DeSclafani

RHP Jesse Hernandez

RHP Blake MacFarland

RHP Ajay Meyer

LHP Justin Nicolino

LHP Carlos Pina (DL)

LHP David Rollins

RHP Aaron Sanchez

RHP Noah Syndergaard

LHP Tyler Ybarra

Catchers

Carlos Perez

Pierce Rankin

Infielders

1B K.C. Hobson

1B Kevin Patterson

2B Jonathan Berti

3B Kellen Sweeney

3B Bryson Namba

3B/SS Andy Burns

SS Chino Vega

Outfielders

LF Christopher Hawkins

CF Kevin Pillar

CF Kenny Wilson

RF Markus Brisker

-JM

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Playing at 3,000-seat Bowen Field, Bluefield hitters enjoyed playing at the park and found that the ball flew off of their bats. Bluefield finished fifth out of the league’s ten teams with a .262 team batting average, fourth with a .339 team on-base percentage, and fourth with a .411 slugging percentage. They also finished first in triples (26), RBI (362), and walks (252).

Here’s a look at how each one of Bluefield’s position players fared in 2011, with quotes and details of how the players became part of the Jays organization. Players are listed by position and in order of the most games played there. For players who played multiple positions, they will be slotted under whichever position they played the most games at.

(more…)

“@johnmanuelba Would Leonys Martin be within the top 15 Jays prospects if signed?“

And he answered as follows: (more…)

#23: Shane Michael Opitz

Short Stop / 19 years old / 6’2″ 185 lbs

Born: January 10th 1992, in Centennial Colorado (just turned 19)

image courtesy of Reza A. Marvashti of The Denver Post

Bats Left   Throws Right

High School Team: Heritage High, Littleton Colorado

College: NA – committed to Nebraska before signing with the Jays

Drafted: in the 11thrd of the ’10 draft, 336th overall

Signed: for $225,000

Jersey Number: Oddly enough, no number is listed for Shane even though he did play for the GCL Blue Jays in ’10

Quick Facts: 

• His brother Jake spent 4 years at Nebraska (05-08) before signing with the Cubs
• He was All State as a Jr. in High School
• He made the 2010 Louisville Slugger High School All-American team, along with fellow Jays prospects Aaron Sanchez and Kellen Sweeney (more…)