In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The seventh and final part of the series will look at left handed pitchers, perhaps the most unusual position in all of baseball. As Barry Zito displayed during the MLB playoffs, when coming from the left side, smarts and deception can be just as valuable as raw stuff. Left handed pitchers almost always find themselves in demand, as even when they’ve seen their stuff significantly diminished, there’s always the lefty specialist role that every team needs to fill. The bane of Adam Lind, Randy Choate, is an excellent example, as despite racking up just 20-50 innings every year, he still finds a team willing to pay him a million dollars a year to do it. Hopefully, the left handed pitcher prospects in the Blue Jays system can be significantly better than LOOGYs, however.

• Top left handed pitcher prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Ricky Romero
• Left handed pitchers in 2012 Top 30: 3
• Left handed pitcher WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Ricky Romero (10.4), Brett Cecil/Scott Downs (3.6)

The King in the North

Justin Nicolino – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
10-4, 124.1 IP, 112 H, 34 ER, 6 HR, 21 BB, 119 K
2.46 ERA (2.54 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 8.61 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 1.64 GO/AO

Nicolino pitching for the Lansing Lugnuts in April 2012 (Image courtesy MLBProspectPortal.com)

NOTE: Just a day after writing this section, Nicolino was traded to the Miami Marlins. While he’ll no longer be under consideration for my top 30 prospects ranking starting next week, removing him would too drastically alter the shape of this primer. So, enjoy, Marlins fans?

Justin Nicolino was the picture of consistency last season. From April through the end of August, he appeared in five or six games each and every month, never missing a start. Furthermore, his month-by-month ERAs ranged from 0.00 (in April), to 4.28 (July). At his best, he was untouchable. At his worst, he was an average pitcher. You can break it down even further; after Nicolino was separated from Aaron Sanchez and given his own spot in the rotation on June 16th, he made 16 starts, and 15 of those 16 were for five innings or more. Beyond just the strength of his statistics, every time Nicolino took to the mound, he gave his team a good chance to win, and gave his bullpen some much deserved rest. From a 20 year old pitcher in Single-A, that’s remarkable.

The reasoning behind Nicolino’s surprising polish and maturity is simple; he learned how to be good when he was a bad pitcher. While Nicolino has good height at 6-foot-3, he doesn’t have a ton of muscle mass, weighing in around 170 pounds. Incredibly, that’s a significant improvement upon high school, when he may have cracked 150 pounds soaking wet. The 16/17 year old Nicolino was struggling to touch 85 miles per hour, so he forced himself to learn how to pitch, not just throw, far earlier than most prospects. He practiced changing speeds, moving balls out of the swing plane, doubling up on pitch and location, and scraping the edges of the plate for much needed called strikes.

It wasn’t until he turned 18 that he finally began to see some muscle development and bulk, and suddenly he was finding the high 80’s with relative ease. Now 20 years old, Nicolino can get his fastball up to 88-92 miles per hour consistently, while still maintaining the pinpoint control and command he learned when he was younger. The pitch has some arm side run to it, which helps make up for the presently solid-average velocity.

Nicolino’s best pitch is his changeup, which further protects his fastball and allows the velocity to play up even more. He throws it in the high 70’s (roughly 10-12 mph of separation from his fastball), and has excellent arm speed. It fades down and away from right handed batters with circle-changeup movement, and Nicolino has shown impressive feel for the pitch. It could be argued that the change is already a plus pitch on the Major League level, and could grade even higher as he continues to mature as a pitcher. Without question, it’s the best changeup in the system. Rounding out the repertoire is a curveball that has flashed above average potential with good break and tight rotation, but is still lacking consistent form.

His command and control is also the best in the system. Nicolino is an expert at pitch sequencing and his baseball intelligence is off the charts. After seeing batters, he quickly makes adjustments for their second and third plate appearances, using his strengths to target and expose their weaknesses. He’s going to find himself in Dunedin next spring, and he should continue to find success as he ascends the minor league level. A stop in New Hampshire next summer is all but guaranteed, and Nicolino is on track to be the first of the Lansing Three to see Toronto – perhaps as early as the summer of 2014.

The Question Mark

Daniel Norris – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
2-4, 42.2 IP, 58 H, 40 ER, 4 HR, 18 BB, 43 K
8.44 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.78 WHIP, 9.07 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 1.26 GO/AO

Norris pitching for the Bluefield Blue Jays in the summer of 2012 (Image via YourVanCs.com)

Just about everything that was said about Matt Dean and Jacob Anderson on the corner infield and corner outfield primers respectively can be repeated here. Norris was a 2011 draft pick who was signed to an above slot bonus (2 million). He made his professional debut with Bluefield in 2012, and despite receiving excellent grades across the board for his stuff, he crashed and burned in the Appalachian League. The difference is, with Dean and Anderson, they were very raw, and some early career struggles were expected. That’s not quite the case with Norris. In Tennessee, he pitched for the highly regarded Science Hill high school, and received a substantial amount of innings in a competitive environment. I was hoping/expecting he’d start his career in Lansing, but when I saw the Bluefield assignment, I thought he would breeze through short season ball. That didn’t happen, and given how hard and consistently the rookie league hitters pounded Norris, there are some serious questions about him moving forward.

The questions are less about the stuff and more about the mechanics, which were a problem during his high school career as well. Norris has a complex windup, which has lead to consistent inconsistency with the delivery. His timing gets thrown off and his pitching arm lags behind, leading to a late release point and pitches peppering the upper half of the zone. Norris is supremely athletic and an excellent student of the game, so if anyone can get past mechanical woes, it’s him. Norris works from a straight 3/4 arm slot, and while his arm action is good, there’s some effort there. It’s not enough that you need to start throwing the reliever label around, but it’s something to monitor, particularly if he undergoes velocity fluctuations like he did throughout 2012.

At times, Norris will pitch 89-92, while other times he’ll get it up to 93-95 miles per hour. Regardless of the pitch speed, the movement is excellent, as Norris will throw it with sink as well as with two-seam fastball action. When his mechanics are smooth he shows good fastball command, but when he falls apart, it goes downhill quickly. Norris has two potentially plus offspeed pitches in his curveball and changeup. The curve is thrown in the upper 70’s, and he has flashed some very tight spin and late break when mechanically sound. Other times it gets loopy, and he throws it in the dirt more often than not. The changeup was advanced coming out of high school and continued to improve despite his poor season overall. It has straight sink and is thrown between 80 and 83 mph, with sneaky arm speed. Norris will throw a slider as well, and it shows some tilt, but it can take away from his curveball as the two can start to blend together and act like a slurve.

The Blue Jays now find themselves in an interesting predicament with Norris. He was widely considered one of the top prep arms during the 2011 draft, and the idea of sending him out for a second year of short season ball must leave a very bad taste in the mouths of the development guys, poor numbers or not. The fact that he managed to throw over 40 innings and that his strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were strong may be enough for the front office to decide Single-A Lansing is the best course of action, and I completely agree. There are plenty of reasons to hold prospects back, but coddling a top arm because you spend a lot of money on him and his numbers weren’t great isn’t one of them. If Norris is as good as he was expected to be and that we all continue to hope he’ll be, he will figure things out. Wasting another year in short season isn’t going to accomplish anything.

On the Rise

Sean Nolin – 2012 team(s): High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire
10-0, 101.1 IP, 81 H, 23 ER, 7 HR, 27 BB, 108 K
2.04 ERA (2.91 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 9.59 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.93 GO/AO

Sean Nolin (RIGHT) poses with his Dunedin teammate, infielder Kevin Nolan, in June (Eddie Michels, Toronto Sun)

Back-to-back impressive seasons have moved Nolin firmly onto the prospect radar, as the continued refinement of his stuff and command have seen his profile rise from a potential number five starter or swing man, up to a potential number three or four starter. A sixth round pick back in that bountiful 2010 draft, Nolin had a shaky short season debut with Auburn, but made palpable strides with Lansing in 2011. He carried over that success to Dunedin (and subsequently New Hampshire) in 2012, and had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the organization. With New Hampshire eliminated from postseason contention, he returned to Dunedin to close out the year, starting the D-Jays’ final playoff game, a 3-0 defeat. The only negative of Nolin’s year was a strained back that cost him nearly two months between early June and late July.

Nolin has a big, durable frame at 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds, and he uses the strength in his lower half well through his delivery, as he drives towards the plate. His arm slot is overhand, which is further benefitted by his height, and makes it really surprising that Nolin has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his minor league career despite such a steep downward plane on his pitches. This is likely due to the fact that despite showing above average velocity (sitting 88-92, touching 93-94), his fastball doesn’t have very much natural movement. It’s the typical four-seam fastball that will have its vertical trajectory drop between one and three inches due to spin, whereas sinkers or two-seam fastballs will usually drop anywhere between four and eight inches.

The two offspeed pitches Nolin features, his changeup and curveball, both project to be solid-average to above average offerings with continued development. The curveball made huge strides during the 2012 season, as it has leapfrogged the changeup to become Nolin’s second best weapon. He’ll throw it in the mid 70’s, and it has a nice plane of break in generating plenty of swings and misses. The straight changeup is a close third, and at 77-80 miles per hour it has nice velocity separation from the fastball. The arm speed is pretty good, but Nolin can often throw it with a little too much firmness, weakening the sink and leaving it susceptible to left handed batters. The overall package is still more control than command, but Nolin made improvements last season, particularly with his fastball. At his age and size, there’s not much physical projection left, so further development will revolve around him continuing to learn how to pitch and commanding the offspeed stuff.

Having already pitched two years of full season ball, Nolin is on track to be the first of the next wave of arms to reach Toronto. With his well-rounded three pitch repertoire he should be ready to pitch in the big league rotation by early 2014, but if the Blue Jays are in the playoff hunt in late 2013, he could temporarily serve out of the bullpen in a lefty-punishing role (with Dunedin in 2012, he had a 37-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 28 innings against lefties). He may lack the ceiling of pitchers like Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, but he’s the only potentially above average starter in the system with experience at the Double-A level – where he’ll return to start the 2013 season. Hopefully the organization can avoid a repeat of 2012 where they prematurely promoted Drew Hutchison due to poor pitching depth at the major league level, as Nolin may make such a decision very appealing.

Dream on Me

Matt Smoral – 2012 team: N/A

Matt Smoral has all kinds of length (Image courtesy of Jim Olexa and Cleveland.com)

At 2 million dollars, Matt Smoral received the largest signing bonus of any Blue Jays selection from the 2012 draft, ahead of even Toronto’s top two picks, first rounders D.J. Davis and Marcus Stroman. There are two main justifications as to why Toronto was forced to hand over such a substantial bonus. The first is that, by ability, Smoral was a mid-first round talent (Baseball America ranked him 24th overall), and the only reason he fell was a foot injury suffered in April that required surgery. The second aspect is tied to the first, in that Smoral had every reason to pass on the Blue Jays offer and pitch in college. The foot injury damaged his value, and three years at a reputable program in North Carolina could boost him into potential top-5 pick status in 2015. The Blue Jays got the deal finished, and while the surgery eliminated any chance of a draft year debut, Smoral should be 100% ready when spring training rolls around in February.

Smoral’s size and repertoire have drawn some half hearted Randy Johnson comps, and while that’s really fun to think about, Smoral has a long, long (long) way to go before he should even be mentioned in the same breath as one of the best pitchers in baseball history. His height is the first thing you notice, as at 6-foot-8 (or 6-foot-7, depending upon who you ask), Smoral is the tallest guy in the room everywhere he goes. He’s got some solid mass at 225 pounds, but much of it is located in the lower half, whereas his arms and chest are still a little on the skinny side. As the 18 year old continues to physically develop, that should only further augment a fastball that already sits between 90 and 94 miles per hour – velocity that comes very easily to him. Smoral delivers the ball from a low 3/4 arm slot, which gives it some natural cutting action and creates a very difficult angle for hitters to pick up the ball from, particularly lefties.

The arm slot is extremely beneficial to his slider as well, and the breaking ball is already being called his best pitch. Future grades of plus and even plus-plus have been thrown on the 82-85 mph offering, as it’s extremely hard and has sharp break. Smoral will throw a low 80’s changeup, but thanks to his overpowering 1-2 combo it was seldom used in high school. He has good arm action on the pitch and it has late sink, but Smoral can occasionally have difficulties getting on top of the ball and leaves it up. He’s been known to throw a curveball as well, and he’s actually shown the ability to get some nice spin rotation on it, but the pitch takes a back seat to the power slider and is clearly his fourth pitch at this point. Smoral is very athletic for his size, and given the strides he’s made since the summer of 2010, scouts are very optimistic on his development moving forward.

If the front office’s decisions from 2012 are any indication, Matt Smoral is looking at a Bluefield assignment to open up his Blue Jays career. Smoral has upside for days, but given the layoff he’ll have had (it will be 14 months between competitive, non-intra-squad games) and the lack of innings he threw as a whole in 2012, the organization is going to play it safe. Much like Norris, Roberto Osuna, Joe Musgrove, Kevin Comer et al. last season, Smoral is likely to find himself paired with another pitcher, throwing 3-4 innings in a game every four or five days for at least the first part of Bluefield’s season. From there, if his foot is holding up, Smoral should see his workload expand, and may even find himself in Vancouver before the summer is finished. He’s a long way away, but at 6-foot-8, there’s a whole lot of pitcher to dream on here.

The Bullpen Guy

Griffin Murphy – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
1-2, 39.1 IP, 26 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 13 BB, 44 K
1.83 ERA (2.51 FIP), 0.99 WHIP, 10.07 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 1.03 GO/AO

Murphy pitching for his high school team, Redlands East Valley (The Press-Enterprise, Mark Zaleski)

Hey, remember that much talked about 2010 draft? Here’s yet another promising arm who joined the organization in it, with Murphy being selected in the second round and receiving an 800 thousand dollar signing bonus. While not a true reliever as of yet (he made just two starts against 15 relief appearances in 2012, many of which went for multiple innings), all signs point to Murphy eventually filling that role as he ascends the minor leagues. He falls into the numbers game, as while in some organizations he may be viewed as a potential back-end starter, there’s simply not going to be any room in Toronto’s rotation if/when he arrives. The Bluefield assignment was rather disappointing (he could have at least pitched in Vancouver to open the year, if not Lansing), but he made the most of his opportunity, with his season highlighted by a scoreless streak that eclipsed 25 innings.

As I touched on above, the reason why I feel Murphy will eventually move to the bullpen is due to a lack of room, not a lack of a viable third pitch. Quite the contrary, in fact, as between his fastball, curveball, and changeup, Murphy features three pitches with average to above average potential, and all have shown some impressive polish. His best offering of the three is his fastball, which has fringe-plus velocity from the left side, clocking in between 89-92 miles per hour, touching 93-94. The movement is merely average, but Murphy has excellent fastball command, locating the pitch safely on the corners both inside and outside.

Throwing from a high 3/4 arm slot, Murphy does his best to get on top of the ball and create a downward plane on his pitches, particularly his offspeed stuff. The curveball has 12-to-6 movement (or close enough), and has nice form and shape while being thrown in the mid 70’s. It has sharp break when he’s throwing it well, but when he fails to get on top of the ball it loops with an easy to pick up arc to the plate. He has good arm speed on the straight change, and the pitch shows solid sink at the plate. The command of the offspeed isn’t quite to the level of his fastball command, but still falls within the average range.

Murphy is more than ready for Lansing, and given that the organization will likely have the Lugnuts once again employ a piggyback system to open the year, he could prove to be a very valuable asset to have there in 2013. He’s in a similar boat to that of the recently departed Anthony DeSclafani, as while the bullpen is his best and likely eventual role, it’s easier for him to develop his pitches and command if he’s throwing 100 innings in a season instead of 50. The Blue Jays could piggyback Murphy with one of the younger arms they’re being very protective of – like a Roberto Osuna, for example – or simply use him as a long/swing man to throw multiple innings of relief a few times every week. With a full year of innings under his belt, Murphy could then be placed on the fast track, with a bullpen debut in Toronto as early as late 2014 not out of the question.

Remember the Name

Jairo Labourt – 2012 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
0-3, 38.0 IP, 38 H, 16 ER, 2 HR, 23 BB, 39 K
3.79 ERA (3.65 FIP), 1.61 WHIP, 9.24 K/9, 5.45 BB/9, 0.70 GO/AO

Like Alberto Tirado on the right handed pitcher primer, Jairo Labourt was an under the radar international signing, though he came a few months later in January of 2011. He was eligible to be signed in the previous July, but it wasn’t until his stuff improved a notch over the fall and winter that he really began to draw attention. The Blue Jays delivered the left hander a bonus worth 350 thousand dollars, and because he technically signed during the 2010 period, he was able to pitch that same summer. Working for the Blue Jays Dominican League affiliate, Labourt made 12 starts, throwing just over 36 innings while carrying a 2.23 ERA. He jumped stateside as an 18 year old this past summer, and showed both an uptick in velocity and strikeout rate. He’s very much still a work in progress, however, evident by the 5.45 walks per nine.

The 18 year old Labourt doesn’t have as much physical projection left as most Latin American pitchers, as at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, he’s already a fairly big and muscular guy. He’s athletic as well, which noticeably translates into his delivery. It’s very smooth and the mechanics are clean, but Labourt has struggled to consistently repeat the motions, which has lead to the control problems I mentioned above.

Labourt’s fastball has already flashed plus velocity, as while the pitch sits in the 88-92 mph range, it’s touching as high as 94. He attempts to play up the velocity even further by using a changeup, but it’s still very raw and can be picked up with relative ease. Unsurprisingly, he’s been pumped by right handed batters early in his career, as in 2012 alone he surrendered 30 hits and 14 walks in just 24.2 innings against them (5.11 ERA). He’ll need to significantly improve the pitch moving forward. Working in his favor, however, is an advanced curveball with tight spin and plenty of depth. It’s an excellent chase pitch, and has been a big factor in his above average strikeout rate thus far in his career.

It’s probable the Blue Jays will continue to move things along slowly with Labourt, so Bluefield appears to be the most appropriate destination in 2013. His inning totals have been satisfactory thus far, but with Labourt now 18 and entering his third year in short season ball, I expect the reins will be loosened slightly, with perhaps more four and five inning starts. The organization would likely prefer to see him work his way into the 50-plus innings range next year, allowing for a full season assignment in 2014 without too many workload restrictions. His stuff from the left side makes him a name to follow, and if he can harness in some of that control, he could make some serious waves next summer and beyond.

Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

1. CF D.J. Davis (BLU): 29 AB, 9 H, .310/.394/.552 (.946 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 SB, 3/7 BB/K

D.J. Davis was Toronto's number one pick in the 2012 draft (Image courtesy PerfectGame.org)

The Blue Jays number one pick in last June appears to have taken a real liking to Bluefield. Since being promoted up from the Gulf Coast League in mid-August, Davis has filled up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. This week was no different, as he reached base in each of his seven games, and reached at least twice in five of those seven. With his on-base percentage sitting at a lovely .394 for the week, his legs took over, as Davis racked up four more stolen bases, giving him a total of 24 in 55 games. That’s roughly a 70 stolen base pace over the course of a full season. That’s what scouts call 80 speed. The most pleasant part of Davis’ debut has been the power, as while few called him a slap hitter out of the draft, no one suggested a 148 ISO in year one either. Davis has done just that, with 18 extra base hits, including five home runs.

2. RHP Javier Avendano (VAN): 1-0, 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 15 K

Why is Javier Avendano still pitching in the Northwest League? His two starts this week continued a trend of dominance that dates back over a month. Since the 16th of July, Avendano has allowed just four earned runs in 47 innings – a 0.77 ERA. The peripherals have been just as strong, as he struck out 55 and walked just 13. He’s second in the league in ERA and WHIP, and first in strikeouts – twenty ahead of the second place pitcher, Victor Sanchez of the Mariners, who is a top prospect in his own right. Avendano has proven himself in both Lansing and Vancouver, and if I had some input on the minor league decision making, he would have been promoted to Dunedin a month ago. Avendano has been the Northwest League pitcher of the week for two weeks running, and given the numbers above, a third consecutive title is likely headed his way.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 0-0, 9 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 11 K

Last week’s hottest prospect slips to third place this week, due mostly to some shaky command in his August 25th start. Less important than the three walks was his pitch count, as Nolin threw 81 in just four innings, forcing the manager to pull him earlier than we all would have liked. This late in the minor league season, with nearly every pitcher nursing a bit of arm soreness, there was no reason to send him out for the fifth after four stressful innings. Even so, his August 20th start was more than enough to give him a high ranking, as he struck out eight Binghamton batters in five innings, allowing just one run on four hits. With the playoffs well out of reach, the Fisher Cats have just eight days left in their season. Nolin is probably looking at one more start, and at just 4.2 innings shy of 100 for the year, you know he’d love to reach the century mark.

4. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 25 AB, .320/.452/.400 (.852 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 6/3 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney is having the best month of his young career, and is showing Blue Jays fans the talent that made him a second round pick back in the 2010 draft. Sweeney has continued to do what he does best, reaching base in 20 of 24 August games. It hasn’t just been walks, as he’s hit and even hit with some authority. Sweeney has 26 hits in those 24 games, 10 of which have gone for extra base hits. In total, his August slash line is up to .292/.388/.461, which is exceptional production from the hot corner. His overall Vancouver line has risen up to respectability, sitting at .232/.339/.382 through 63 games. A month ago, it was looking like Sweeney was going to fall off my top 30 prospect list altogether, but he’s done enough here in August to tread water and earn himself another look in 2013.

5. RHP John Stilson (NH): 0-0, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

All season I have been pushing the “John Stilson to the bullpen” card, and after a short stint on the disabled list earlier this month, the Blue Jays have finally responded. Stilson simply doesn’t have the mechanics or durability to pitch 200 innings year in and year out – the risk of shoulder aggravation is too great. The 2011 third round pick seems to have taken to the relief role quite well, as in his five total appearances (seven innings), Stilson has allowed just eight base runners and one run, while striking out nine. He even earned his first career save on August 17th – the first of many, I hope. While closing for Texas A&M his stuff played up extremely well, and if that has carried over to pro ball, the Blue Jays could have a very electric reliever on their hands.

6. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Nicolino has appeared on five consecutive hot sheets, which speaks volumes about the type of season the left hander has had down in Lansing. I can’t say enough about the reliability of Nicolino, as since being moved exclusively to the rotation on June 11th, he’s pitched at least four innings in every game, and at least five in 12 of his last 13 starts. In the statistical age we currently live in, durability often gets overlooked, but there’s something to be said for a pitcher who can go out every fifth day and give your team a good chance to win. The fact Nicolino has found this consistency at just 20 years of age makes it that much more impressive. With another week left in the season, plus the playoffs, Nicolino could easily find himself approaching 130 innings before all is said and done. It’s not an insignificant jump (he had just 61 innings in 2011), but as he doesn’t throw max effort on every pitch, the Blue Jays obviously feel Nicolino has the type of arm that can handle such a workload without substantial risk.

7. 2B Christian Lopes (VAN): 24 AB, .375/.423/.417 (.840 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB, 1/4 BB/K

Without a doubt, Christian Lopes has been the star hitter of short season ball in the Toronto organization. He skipped the Gulf Coast League and debuted with Bluefield, and after 49 exceptional games there, he received the promotion the Vancouver. Lopes hasn’t skipped a beat since setting foot on Canadian soil, as he has two or more hits in three of his five games for the club. Between the two levels, his overall season line is a well rounded .290/.347/.478. The Blue Jays may well have found their long term answer at second base, the problem is, at just 19 years old, Lopes is at least a few years away.

Honorable mention: Marcus Knecht (DUN)

1. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Sean Nolin (RIGHT) poses with his Dunedin teammate, infielder Kevin Nolan, in June (Eddie Michels, Toronto Sun)

This week’s hottest prospect earned himself a promotion to Double-A New Hampshire thanks to a season long hot streak that culminated in his dominant performance on the 14th of August against Brevard County. The 6-foot-5 left hander struck out 10 batters in five innings, allowing four hits and zero walks. A pair of runs crossed the plate, but both were unearned due to some shoddy High-A defense behind him. An early June injury sidelined Nolin for the better part of two months, but his overall season numbers of a 2.19 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.38 K/9 across 86.1 innings is highly impressive. When combined with his breakout numbers in the Midwest League back in 2011, we have a very real prospect on our hands. Nolin doesn’t have the stuff to be a top, or even middle of the rotation starter in the major leagues, but he’s establishing himself as a durable pitcher with a solid #4/5 starter ceiling.

2. 3B Gustavo Pierre (LAN): 20 AB, .450/.500/.700 (1.200 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 2/6 BB/K

Pierre opened the season in extended spring training, but after Kellen Sweeney struggled mightily for the Lugnuts over the first two months, Pierre received the bump to Lansing and has progressively improved as the year wore on. In the months he’s received significant playing time, his OPS has increased from .544 in June, to .769 in July, to finally .952 here in August. The 20 year olds overall season line has risen to .260/.317/.414, a vast improvement over the .187/.244/.262 he produced for Lansing in the first half of 2011. Originally a shortstop, historically bad defensive numbers forced a move to third base, where, while still extremely raw, he appears to have settled in. The offensive tools have always been prevalent; harnessing them has always been the problem. After two consecutive years of poor showings, he’s finally displaying the ability that made him a top IFA in 2008.

3. LHP Griffin Murphy (BLU): 0-0, 6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

There is no hotter pitcher in minor league baseball over the past month. Dating back to July 11th, Murphy has pitched 25 innings, and has allowed a total of zero earned runs. Over his last 10 appearances, his ERA is 0.00. In those innings he’s allowed just nine hits and eight walks, while striking out 30. The dominance was exemplified last night, as in his first start for Bluefield – taking the place of recently departed Kevin Comer – he pitched 4.1 innings, allowed zero runs on one hit, and struck out seven. The biggest detractor against Murphy is his age, as the left hander is 21 years old and will turn 22 before next season begins. When I named him the 27th best prospect in the system over the winter, I hoped for a Vancouver or Lansing assignment to accelerate his development and put him on a more ideal timeline. That didn’t happen, and given his numbers, rookie-class Bluefield obviously wasn’t challenging enough. The season is running out of games, but a promotion to Lansing for the playoff run could do wonders for his future with the club.

4. C Santiago Nessy (BLU): 20 AB, .350/.435/.650 (1.085 OPS), 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 3/6 BB/K

With Carlos Perez now a member of the Houston Astros, a void has been created in the low minors for a top catching prospect. Nessy appears to have filled that spot, as after I named him a sleeper prospect entering the year, he’s gone on to produce a .252/.318/.458 slash line for Bluefield. For a catcher, that’s exceptional production. Power has been the calling card for the young Venezuelan, which isn’t particularly surprising given his 6-foot-2, 230 lbs frame. As a highlight of that tool, Nessy hit a home run in four consecutive games between August 11th and August 16th. His eight home runs are first on the team, while his eight doubles are tied for second. The catcher won’t turn 20 until December, and is looking at a Single-A Lansing assignment next year if everything goes to plan. Losing Perez hurts, but Nessy has established himself as a solid replacement in the system.

5. 1B Art Charles (VAN): 21 AB, .333/.440/.714 (1.154 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Power continues to be the defining tool of Art Charles, as even a promotion to the wider dimensions of the Northwest League parks have been unable to contain him. His ISO with the Canadians sits at 245, which is exceptional even for a first baseman. The biggest drop in performance since his promotion has been his walk rate, as entering this week he had just four base-on-balls in 16 games after walking 33 times in 31 games for Bluefield. Charles resolved that problem this week, as in addition to his usual power (two doubles, two home runs), he walked four times while striking out just five times. With the graduation of David Cooper and the low ceiling of Mike McDade, one could argue that Art Charles is now the top first base prospect in the system; though that’s more an indictment of the positional depth than it is a complement to Charles.

6. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Aaron Sanchez has cooled off and been injured. Noah Syndergaard has struggled to find innings as he approaches his season limit. Meanwhile, Justin Nicolino keeps on rolling. His start this week was his eighth consecutive outing of five-or-more innings. His 109.1 innings this year are tied with Anthony DeSclafani for first on the team, while his WHIP is tied for first among starters. His six strikeouts against Fort Wayne on the 17th gave him 107 total punchouts on the year, which moved him into the team lead. I have mentioned before that Nicolino’s ceiling is obviously below that of Sanchez and Syndergaard, but his performance this season has proven that his floor is easily the highest, as he’s become the most durable and reliable of the trio.

7. RHP Danny Barnes (DUN): 0-0, 3 SV, 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

I stretched the list to seven this week solely so I could include Danny Barnes. The Princeton grad (yes, the same Princeton that Carlton Banks attended on The Fresh Prince of Bel Air) has been a dominant reliever since the Blue Jays made him a 35th round pick in the 2010 draft. He transitioned into the closer role for Dunedin this year, and has excelled to the tune of a 1.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 11.02 K/9 in his 49 innings. Barnes made four appearances this week, in which he didn’t allow a run and earned three saves. His 32 saves on the year are first in the Florida State League by a mile, as the second place reliever, Chris Rearick of the Tampa organization, has just 20. As a four year college senior he’s always been a bit old for the level he’s pitched at, but Barnes absolutely has a middle relief or setup-type ceiling.

Honorable mention: Javier Avendano (VAN), OF Kevin Pillar (DUN)

1. 1B Art Charles (BLU): 19 AB, .421/.607/1.000 (1.607 OPS), 1 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 9/4 BB/K

This week

Art Charles had himself a week, though, to be fair, he’s really having himself a season. After closing out the week on Sunday with another home run, Charles has seen his OBP and SLG rise to .459 and .576 respectively, both jaw dropping numbers. What’s even more impressive (or foreboding, if you’re a pessimist) is that he’s produced those numbers despite only a .235 average. I suggested earlier this month that a hot start would earn him a promotion, and the promotion has been received. Charles is on his way to Vancouver, where he’ll likely finish the 2012 season. It could actually boost his contact numbers, as the Northwest League traditionally has large parks with tons of room for fielders to cover. The expanded dimensions shouldn’t hurt his power numbers too much, as at 6-foot-6 and 220 lbs, Charles isn’t really a paint-scraper kind of guy.

2. LF Eric Arce (BLU): 15 AB, .333/.474/1.000 (1.474 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, 4/9 BB/K

Arce had a crazy professional debut last season, as in just 55 games he set a GCL Blue Jays record with 14 home runs. His 2012 season didn’t get off to nearly as hot of a start, with a .179/.385/.214 line in June. Arce picked things up this week, as on Monday and Tuesday he went a combined 4-for-7 with a double and three home runs. Those big games resulted in, yes, the second 1.000 slugging percentage week on the hot sheet, as Arce joined Art Charles in leading the Bluefield offense. Of his 10 outs recorded, 9 were strikeouts, resulting in a comically high .833 BABIP this week. Arce didn’t receive a ton of attention as a 25th round pick in the 2011 draft, but he is quickly making a name for himself as a power hitter despite his diminutive stature (5-foot-9).

3. 1B David Cooper (LAS): 33 AB, .455/.500/.758 (1.258 OPS), 7 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 3/5 BB/K

When putting together the hot sheet, Cooper was one of the first names I came across, and I thought for sure he was going to be the week’s number one. Seven doubles in seven games is a pretty ridiculous number, especially when you consider Cooper’s usual outstanding contact rate. Unfortunately for him, the two Bluefield sluggers went ham this week. Dating back to last week Cooper is riding a nine game hit streak, but he did most of his damage in the past seven games. In those seven, he had two hits three times, three hits once, and a four hit game to close out the week. Even his two 1-for-5 games were solid, as he notched an extra base hit in each. Adam Lind has performed surprisingly well since his recall, leaving the future of David Cooper in serious doubt.

4. RHP Marcus Stroman (VAN): 1-0, 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Upon agreeing to terms with the Blue Jays, the 2012 first round pick was assigned to Vancouver where he was expected to get his feet wet for a couple of weeks before eventually moving to Double-A to face competition more suitable for his talent level. The first week didn’t go so well with four earned runs in just 1.1 innings, but Stroman turned things around dramatically last week. He made a pair of two inning appearances, on the 18th and 22nd, and allowed only one base runner between the two outings. He didn’t walk anyone, and 50% of his outs came by way of the strikeout. He’s likely not long for the Northwest League, and another dominant outing or two this week could push him to New Hampshire before the end of the month.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 2-0, 11.1 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 15 K

His ERA isn’t the most attractive thing to look at, but his complete dominance over the strikezone was worthy of some recognition. If you go back as far as July 5th, Nicolino has 27 strikeouts against only one walk. Despite this, he’s allowed 26 hits and 13 earned runs in just 21.1 innings over that time frame. It’s a very unusual trend, as when a pitcher starts showing improved strikeout and walk rates, you usually expect the hits and earned runs allowed to dry up a bit. It’s been the reverse for Nicolino, as he actually found more success earlier in the year when he was striking out fewer batters. While the reasoning behind this is difficult to surmise, it likely has to do with the increased exposure to lineups. As opposed to going three or four innings and facing hitters once or twice, he’s now pitching five or six innings and facing the same hitters two or three times. They’re learning he’s around the strikezone, so they’re swinging with more frequency and aggression. As crazy as it sounds, Nicolino might need to start throwing fewer strikes.

6. RF Moises Sierra (LAS): 24 AB, .333/.385/.583 (.968 OPS), 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 2/6 BB/K

Sierra appears to be the forgotten man in Las Vegas despite producing a solid all around season. Snider was the obvious choice for a promotion, but if the team needed two outfielders, Moises Sierra really should have been the second. His numbers aren’t spectacular in the context of the Pacific Coast League, but it’s hard to knock an .847 OPS with near equal performances against left handed and right handed pitching. Additionally, as a near-24 year old with seven years of minor league experience, it is/was time for the organization to see what they have in the Dominican outfielder. His two home runs week brought his season total up to 16, which is tied for 7th in the PCL. I really hope he receives a promotion by September at the latest, as Sierra has definitely earned it.

Honorable mention: Noah Syndergaard (LAS), Jake Marisnick (NH), Chase DeJong (GCL), Roberto Osuna (BLU), Chad Jenkins (NH)

Addendum: Dunedin right handed pitcher Jesse Hernandez nearly threw a no-hitter on Friday night, getting to two strikes on his final batter before finally giving up his first hit of the game. Due to his soaring pitch count, Hernandez wasn’t even able to finish the game. It wasn’t a junky, high walk / low strikeout game either, as Hernandez was dominant from the start with 12 strikesouts against only 1 walk. He’ll be turning 24 years old in a month, and with no dominant pitch he’s less a prospect and more an organizational guy. Even so, such an excellent game is worthy of some recognition, and a hat tip to Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey) for the reminder.

1. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (DUN): 1-0, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Asher Wojciechowski won his 5th straight decision on Wednesday night in Jupiter (Jim Goins, via MiLB.com)

I called out Wojcechowski on the hot sheet over a month ago, going as far as to suggest he needs to be converted to relief sooner rather than later. While I obviously had no impact, he’s coincidentally responded with the best stretch of his young career. Over his last six starts he’s allowed 1, 2, 0, 0, 2, and 0 earned runs respectively, good for a 1.23 ERA. The current period of success has been accentuated by the gem he pitched on July 11th, as 16 of his 21 outs came by way of strikeout or groundout. There’s been a lot of talk around the Blue Jays fan base that some of the Lansing pitchers, namely Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, need to be challenged at the next level. If the team determines that to be true, Wojciechowski could be one of the guys moving up to make room in the rotation. As a 23 year old former college arm, the team needs to see what he’s capable of.

2. CF Anthony Gose (LAS): 14 AB, .357/.500/.714 (1.214 OPS), 0 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 4/4 BB/K

After wowing the world with his a jawdropping catch in the Futures Game over All-Star weekend, Gose picked up where he left off with the 51s. The break limited him to only four games, so while the 1.214 OPS is mighty impressive, the counting stats were simply too lacking to take the crown as this week’s hottest player. The home run numbers have surprisingly dropped off, but with 10 triples on the season, he’s already surpassed his 2011 total. The doubles aren’t far behind, as he’s two back of his 2011 number with nearly two months left to play. The most surprising decline in performance has been on the base paths, as after stealing 70 bases last year (reaching the 70+ plateau for the second time in three years), Gose has stolen just 29 this year, only on pace for a total in the low 40’s. Not listed above are his three caught stealing this week – again, in only four games – which makes five consecutive caught stealing since he last found success on June 25th. Opportunity hasn’t been the issue, as his on base percentage is 27 points higher than last season. Very puzzling.

3. CF Dwight Smith Jr. (BLU): 17 AB, .353/.389/.647 (1.036 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 1/1 BB/K

Making his first appearance on a hot sheet this season is Dwight Smith Jr., a supplemental first round pick from the 2011 draft. He was literally my final cut when I wrote my top 30 prospects last winter, and it was really no fault of his. Smith’s professional contract wasn’t finalized until August 15th, too late for him to play in any affiliated games last season. When I’m trying to squeeze two or three players into the back end of the rankings, I tend to favor prospects with some professional experience, so in this case, Moises Sierra got the nod. Smith missed the first few games of Bluefield’s season with an injury, but has played really well since getting on the field. His hot streak goes beyond the four games within this timeframe, as over his past 10 he’s hitting .293/.383/.463, which is exceptional for short season ball.

4. RHP Jeremy Gabryszwski (BLU): 0-0, 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

The very talented Bluefield staff is working through some issues right now, as in addition to poor weather reaping havoc on their pitching schedule, they haven’t been nearly as sharp in the early going. Despite being listed as active, neither Joe Musgrove nor Tom Robson have pitched in a couple of weeks. Picking up the slack has been Gabryszwski, as he’s produced three consecutive quality outings for the team. His July 14th start was both his longest and his best, as he went five innings without allowing any runs to score. Gabryszwski is one of the less heralded arms from the bountiful 2011 draft, but has a nice fastball/slider/changeup repertoire. His biggest issues have been inconsistency with his stuff and an elbow problem, but a healthy, productive 2012 season could quell some of those concerns. With a 1.89 ERA through 19 innings, he’s off to a good start.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

It’s been a while since Nicolino made the hot sheet, as while Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez have made huge strides since being fully stretched out, he has stalled. As hitters are seeing him for a second and third time, they’re picking up on his stuff, resulting in 26 hits allowed in 20 post-All Star break innings. The stuff has still been there, with 23 strikesouts, as has his exceptional command, with only 3 walks allowed. This may be exactly what Nicolino needed to further his development, as he’s going to need to improve his physicality in order to succeed against more advanced and disciplined hitters in the upper minors. This taste of adversity should serve as a resounding message to Nicolino that he will need to hit the gym hard this offseason and add a solid 10-20 pounds of muscle to frame. There’s no doubting his changeup and the curveball is coming along nicely, but the added strength could boost his fastball up by a grade and better keep hitters honest.

6. RHP Deck McGuire (NH): 0-0, 6.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

No, you don’t need to check your vision. Deck McGuire has made a hot sheet. In actuality, McGuire hasn’t been that bad as of late, as he hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since June 7th. The problem is, most of those starts have been 5 or 6 innings allowing 2 or 3 earned runs, so the ERA isn’t dropped quite as quickly as I’m sure he’d like. The command has been solid and the strikeout rate has been okay, his biggest issue – like it was last year – has been the home run. With two more given up in this week’s start, he’s up to 16 in just 97.2 innings. That’s tied for the most in the Eastern League. As I mentioned, there have been some positives, as over his past two starts (dating back to last week), he has 17 strikeouts against one walk in just over 12 innings.

1. C Travis d’Arnaud (LAS): 25 AB, .360/.385/.800 (1.185 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 1/4 BB/K

March 17, 2012; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Travis d'Arnaud (15) catches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

We’ve honestly reached the point where I’m a little bored to rank d’Arnaud as the hottest prospect in the system, because over the past two months it’s become a bit redundant. He is absolutely killing it right now, and only two things can save Pacific Coast League pitching: an injury or a promotion. I’m hoping for the latter. He finished off the week with back to back 0-for-4’s, but his season line is still an otherworldly .335/.385/.602. When you look at those numbers, keep in mind he’s a catcher who has played in 60 of Las Vegas’ 70 games this year, very few of which have been DH appearances. I spent three weeks in Las Vegas / Nevada during the spring of 2011, and that heat can be brutal. I’m truly amazed he has played this well, and the Blue Jays are running out of excuses to hold back his promotion.

2. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

John Stilson earned a promotion to Double-A this week, and for a while I was wondering why Sean Nolin didn’t get the call. He had yet another dominating start this week, shutting down Clearwater for 6 innings, with the only run he allowed coming on a solo home run. He’s second in the Florida State League in ERA and WHIP, and third in strikeouts –- a step or two ahead of the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole, in all categories. The reason behind the lack of promotion appears to be an injury, as on June 17th Nolin was placed on the minor league disabled list, retroactive to June 15th. I haven’t been able to find any details on the injury, but here’s hoping it’s nothing major and he’ll be able to get back on the mound quickly following the All Star break.

3. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 27 AB, .407/.429/.556 (.985 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, 1/2 BB/K

Hechavarria had hits in each of his six games this week –- including three multi hit efforts –- extending his current hitting streak to 10 games. Without a doubt the PCL and Cashman Field are helping, but it would be foolish to say improvements to his swing haven’t played a part in the offensive surge. Between this year and last, Hechavarria has played 89 games for Las Vegas. He’s hit 348 in those games. Sample size is no longer at play here. Interestingly, the Blue Jays have had Hechavarria play some second base, with journeyman infielder Jonathan Diaz covering shortstop. One has to wonder if the team is preparing for life without Kelly Johnson, and if so, we could see the Cuban shortstop in Toronto as early as next month.

4. C Carlos Perez (LAN): 21 AB, .286/.423/.429 (.852 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 5/2 BB/K

The Carlos Perez that Blue Jays fans came to love in 2010 has finally resurfaced. After a down year across the board with Lansing in 2011, Perez has come on strong in his second go-around of the Midwest League. This week’s hot performance boosted his season line to .271/.353/.433 (.787 OPS), with a very Carlos Perez-like walk rate of 10.9%. Despite failing to receiving a nod for the All Star game, it could be argued he has been Lansing’s best hitter this season after Chris Hawkins has failed to live up to expectations. Perez could be in line for a second half promotion to High-A Dunedin, though it’s possible the team likes how he is working with the talented Lansing staff and will hold him back until they’re ready to move up. Regardless, it’s great to see the real Carlos Perez back swinging the bat.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 0-0, 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 9 K

Nicolino is the first of the four Lansing piggybackers to make two starts in a week, as after making a 4 inning appearance ahead of Aaron Sanchez on June 11th, he received his first five inning start on June 16th against Great Lakes. He wasn’t his best on the 11th, as despite striking out a season-high six and allowing no runs, he walked a season-high four batters. Things were normalized a bit in his second game of the week, as he walked only one while striking out three. Nicolino has been a huge part of Lansing’s first half success, as after a victory on Sunday afternoon, the team moved to 47-22, 9.5 games ahead of the second place team in the Eastern Division. The Lugnuts are now guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. Whether or not Nicolino will be around to pitch in the postseason is a different story.

Honorable mention: Moises Sierra (LAS), Anthony Gose (LAS), Noah Syndergaard (LAN), Anthony DeSclafani (LAN)

So after digesting the wealth of Jays knowledge now at the stadium, I made it a priority to talk to LaCava after Tuesday’s game to see if he would be willing to answer a few questions before the end of my trip. I was actually taken aback at how nice and accommodating he was, as he was willing to answer questions right then and there. We made small talk and briefly discussed Rollins, who LaCava said conceals the ball while working at a quick pace, and Anthony DeSclafani, who he called “another Blue Jays special” before bringing up Shaun Marcum.

I had left my recorder up in the press box, though, so after discussing a few other tidbits, I was going to have to connect with LaCava later in the trip for the interview instead, which turned out to be just prior to Thursday’s game. Considering the amount of front office staff in attendance, not to mention that Lugnuts manager John Tamargo Jr. was absent for the first two games of the week, LaCava was, as expected, very, very busy on this trip with things to do and so many people to talk to. I’d like to sincerely thank Mr. LaCava for giving me the time of day amid his hectic schedule not just once but twice, and for being so gracious in his responses as well.

I really enjoyed hearing his insight to the questions below, and I hope you do as well. My questions are in bold, with LaCava’s answers in plain text.

Sticking with Lansing first-off, a guy like Justin Nicolino, obviously he has the plus change and a good curveball too. Fastball velocity, though, is it an issue at all? Or do you see him adding a couple of ticks to it?

“Well, I think there’s more in there. He’s just turned 20, or he’s turning 20, and physically there’s still some growth, if you look at him he’s got more future growth I think. Already he’ll show you 92, he doesn’t pitch at 92, but his velocity’s creeping up since he signed, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a little bit more fastball. Not that he needs it, because honestly with the angle that he pitches at, the changeup, and the improving curveball, we think he’s got the weapons to be one heck of a starting pitcher in the big leagues right now, even if he doesn’t get more velocity.

Speaking of weapons, Aaron Sanchez. In terms of that changeup, that third pitch, how’s it coming along?

“We think it’s going to be the third plus pitch that he has. Fastball velocity it keeps getting better, and movement, and angle, and command of it just continues to get better and better. His breaking ball is an out pitch, it’s a knockout curveball, and his changeup is, at times, plus also. So that’s three out pitches we think, and he’s just 19.

It’s pretty easy to get excited about him.

“Oh yeah, yeah. We think he’s got a great future.”

Keeping with the Lansing starters, how did the whole piggybacking concept come to fruition this season?

“Well piggybacking’s been done in the past in other organizations, especially with younger pitchers. It’s a way to get a five-month season out of pitchers who normally, if you just let them go full go, would run out of innings by, at the latest, mid-July. We’re trying to get them into a mindset of going five months which is a full minor league season — ultimately we want them to go six months — and to protect them during their teenage years where they’re being asked to do more and they’re still growing, they’re still physically growing. It’s our way of making sure we do the right things by them from a health standpoint.”

Going all the way down the ladder to the Gulf Coast League, a guy like Griffin Murphy, the top prep left-hander of the 2010 draft, he’s not getting talked about much with guys like Nicolino and Daniel Norris in the system right now. How’s he coming along?

“I haven’t seen him since spring training, but in the spring it looked like there had been some improvement, the velocity was starting to get back into that 90 range. Right now it’s just more of an opportunity and waiting. The guys that we wanted to come here we deemed were more ready for this level, and we haven’t really sat down and done the short-season rosters yet, but I’m hopeful that he’s going to, obviously, be a part of one of those teams.”

Jacob Anderson and Dwight Smith Jr., they get lumped together a lot. Can you expand a bit on each player individually?

“Well they’re very different. I mean Jacob is 6’5″ and a longer muscle guy, and Smitty is more of a compact, stronger-type build. Anderson’s got future physical development, and Smith does too, but not as much projection on the body. So physically, there are big differences. Smith we feel is going to be able to play center field, so we’re going to have him do that, and Anderson will be on a corner, and it looks like it’s going to be right field. So he’s got enough for a right field arm.”

A guy like Adonys Cardona, there’s a ton in there, he’s just starting to get noticed it seems. Do you think that’s because he’s an international signing and because of his age?

“Yeah, he’s that much younger, he’s two years younger than these guys here [in Lansing]. He’s 18, and these guys are turning 20 at some point, 19/20. He’d be a junior at high school here in the States. He’s just a little under the radar but he’s got just great potential. He’s got an extremely quick arm, a very, very athletic body that’s projectable as well. He’s got a chance to throw really hard some day. He already, as a 17-year-old, was throwing 94 and even 95, so we think he’s got a really bright future as well.”

With rookie league numbers, the consensus is to not read too much into them and take them with a grain of salt. At what point or level, if at all, do the Blue Jays pay attention to a player’s statistics?

“I think we certainly look at the numbers in the low levels too, but obviously the further away from the major leagues, the less the numbers mean. You can go back to amateur baseball, for instance, you go to a high school game, and we don’t really know how to evaluate numbers in high school baseball. But certainly at the major league level, at the other end of the spectrum, it is what it is: a guy’s numbers are his numbers, and you just work backwards. The further away from the major leagues, the harder the numbers are to predict in future performance, but you can still gather information. I think we’re probably more concerned by bad numbers than we are impressed with good numbers.”

With the draft coming next month, how do you feel about it both talent-wise and having five selections in the first 60 picks?

“Well Andrew Tinnish, our scouting director, is the point man on the draft. Alex, myself and Perry Minasian, our pro scouting director, have seen some players from the draft for Andrew, but I don’t really have the pulse on it like I would like to, to really comment on the strength of it and things like that.”

I was talking to C.J. Ebarb about John Stilson, and he said that Stilson wants to almost cut your throat out when he’s on the mound because he’s just that fierce. He’s starting right now in Dunedin, is that the long-term plan or vision for him, to give it his all as a starter?

“With all the kid pitchers we get, we’d like to at least explore starting just to see, because starters are so much more valuable than relievers. If you can get 200 innings as opposed to 60, those 200-inning guys are so hard to find, so you want to make sure that you explore that. We think Stilson has the weapons to start, and we’re going to give him a chance. We’re going this year and we’re going to evaluate him periodically, but so far so good.”

I heard Michael Crouse had a very good spring. I was only down there for a week, but there were whispers that he had a great spring overall. Can you give an update on him?

“I haven’t seen him yet, in fact going there next, but obviously Michael is a talented kid. It’s only been six weeks down there so it’s really hard to put a lot of stock into such a small sample, but obviously I look forward to seeing him when I get there. He had such a good year here, and we expect him to do the same down there.”

To me, he just screams upside.

“Yeah, he’s a toolsy, very talented kid. He can run, he can throw, he’s got power, and he’s getting better each day, he’s rapidly improving. From the day he signed to this point, he’s come a long way.”

Shifting up to Vegas, Yan Gomes has started to play third base. Has he boosted his stock, especially given his versatility?

“Yeah he definitely has. He’s put himself on the map, on the radar so to speak. We’ve been blessed to have all this catching with J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, [A.J.] Jimenez, [Carlos] Perez, and you’ll hear about [Santiago] Nessy, who was a kid in the Gulf Coast League last year. Yan has just kind of flown under the radar but he had a really nice spring training, a great camp, and we felt like he deserved to go to Triple-A and that he earned the opportunity to go to Triple-A. But with Travis there we didn’t know how to get him the playing time, and he had played a little bit of corner infield in the past, so we felt that we could have him do that and get more at-bats in, and then when Travis has a day off he gets some catching as well. So it was two-fold, one to increase his versatility, and the other to get him more playing time in Triple-A.”

Is the hitting environment in Las Vegas frustrating from a developmental perspective when it comes to evaluating a player’s progress?

“Ideally you’d like it to be more of a fairer environment, for both hitters and pitchers. In this case it’s tough on our pitchers and a little easier on our pitchers, but there are ways to normalize the numbers. Our guys up in the office, [Baseball Information Analyst] Joe Sheehan and [Assistant General Manager] Jay Sartori, they’re always trying to, I guess, translate what happens in Vegas and normalize the numbers. They only play half their games there, so we do get the benefit of seeing them in other places. It certainly favors the hitters there, there’s no question about that, but the league’s been out there forever and Vegas has been a minor league affiliate for a long, long time, and the cream of the crop will come to the top, right?”

Also, after the interview and while sharing a quick elevator ride, Santiago Nessy was brought up again (I forget how). I asked about some of the whispers that the young catcher could eventually move out from behind the plate given his body type, and LaCava quickly dismissed that, stressing that Nessy’s future is behind the plate and that “he’s not going anywhere”.

- JM

1. C Travis d’Arnaud (LAS): 20 AB, .500/.524/1.200 (1.724 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, 1/2 BB/K

March 17, 2012; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Travis d'Arnaud (15) catches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

When a prospect puts together an OPS over 1.000 for the week, he’s rolling. The Las Vegas hitters have even provided a few 1.200+ OPS weeks already this season, and unsurprisingly, they ranked extremely high on their respective hot sheets. Travis d’Arnaud must be laughing, because if those are hot weeks, he’s an inferno right now. The numbers he compiled over his five games this week are not simply bordering on insanity, they are insanity. Even though it’s only May, I’m confident in saying no other player in the Blue Jays system will have a better week than what d’Arnaud produced here. He had 10 hits in 20 at-bats, which would be impressive enough on its own, but 60% of those hits went for extra base hits – resulting in an absurd 1.200 slugging percentage. d’Arnaud had a solid April with a .778 OPS, but most people were expecting more from the systems premiere prospect in such a hitter friendly environment. Well, he’s delivered in May, as these numbers boosted his monthly total to .317/.368/.635 (1.003 OPS). With both JP Arencibia and Travis d’Arnaud cruising on offense in their respective leagues, the Blue Jays are in a very enviable position.

2. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 12 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 16 K

Nolin made the first prospect hot sheet of the season, but hasn’t appeared since. It hasn’t been because he’s pitched poorly, as he’s allowed more than three runs in only one of his nine starts this season. He simply hasn’t produced any dominant outings since his 11 strikeout performance on April 12th. Things were different this week, as Nolin made two starts and struck out eight in each of them, while walking a grand total of zero batters. Not only did he own the strikezone, but balls put in play were swallowed up by his defense, resulting in an impressive 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP for the week. The 22 year old Nolin has completely overmatched the Florida State League thus far, and a promotion to New Hampshire may be on the horizon.

3. RHP Aaron Sanchez (LAN): 1-0, 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K

I recently wrote an article here at Jays Journal that detailed how far Sanchez has come since being selected in the Supplemental 1st round of the 2010 draft, and he continued his successful season with two more dominant appearances this week. The two games saw Sanchez throw a total of eight innings, in which he allowed only five base runners while striking out 10. Strikeouts have always been his calling card, but his ability to induce weak contact this season has been perhaps his most impressive feat. His groundout to flyout ratio has soared to 3.08 for the season, and is a testament to just how good the movement on his fastball is.

4. RHP Noah Syndergaard / Anthony DeSclafani (LAN): 1-0, 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

Unlike Sanchez and Nicolino, this duo has had its fair share of ups and downs. From late April through mid May, Syndergaard allowed nine runs (six earned) in 15.2 innings, while DeSclafani gave up another nine runs (seven earned). On May 17th, however, the two pitched the best they have since early April, combining to allow only one earned run in eight total innings, while striking out 11 batters for good measure. One interesting trend with this pairing is their starter/reliever splits:

Syndergaard (as starter): 16 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 21 K
Syndergaard (as reliever): 12.2 IP, 15 H, 5 ER, 8 BB, 17 K
DeSclafani (as starter): 14 IP, 25 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 9 K
DeSclafani (as reliever): 17 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 21 K

Throughout his entire (albeit brief) minor league career, Syndergaard has pitched almost exclusively as a starter, while the recently drafted DeSclafani served as the closer for the University of Florida. While the sample size is still small, it’s noteworthy how drastically different they have each performed in the roles. Even when the reliever knows in advance he’ll be pitching in the ballgame, the warmup is vastly different, and it’s possible a pitcher like Syndergaard needs the full pregame routine to loosen up his arm. For DeSclafani, a former reliever, he may be having a difficult time adjusting to slowly preparing himself, as opposed to simply relying upon adrenaline and quickly getting ready for an in-progress game. It will definitely be something to watch, at least as long as Lansing utilizes the piggyback approach.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 8 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Nicolino didn’t pitch at his best this week, which speaks volumes about how good he’s been not only this year (1.16 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), but his entire career (1.27 ERA, 0.89 WHIP). It’s actually amazing how little attention he’s drawn this season. The tandem of Nicolino and Aaron Sanchez threw three innings a piece a total of five times before making the jump to four inning appearances. Their May 20th game was their fourth appearance at that length, which, if the Blue Jays keep their development linear, would indicate the two will make only one more game together before their separation. With five inning starts for the rest of the season, the pitchers would be on pace for season totals of 120-125 innings, which is roughly where General Manager Alex Anthopolous indicated he’d like to see them finish.

Honorable mention: Casey Lawrence (NH)

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That trip came last week, when I was able to take in four Lugnuts games from Monday to Thursday, with Nicolino and Sanchez scheduled to pitch on the Thursday night. I had kept last Friday open in the event of a postponed game while I was down there, but both hurlers pitched on Thursday as planned. Here’s what I noted about Nicolino, and I’ll have a separate article coming on Sanchez.

Note: The velocities mentioned below were an average of a nearby scout’s gun and the stadium gun, which was unreliable at times as it consistently read 2-3 mph higher or didn’t give a reading at all. I did bring my gun with me, but for whatever reason I discovered very quickly into the first game on Monday that it didn’t pick up accurate readings from a variety of different seating locations, so I was forced to improvise for the rest of the trip.

Nicolino, like Sanchez, entered last Thursday’s game without having allowed a single run so far this season, but with Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos in attendance, he finished his outing having allowed three earned runs on a season-high six hits with four strikeouts. He didn’t necessarily have his best stuff, but I still walked away quite impressed.

Nicolino’s smooth, repeatable delivery was noticeable, and confirmed the work that he has put in to iron out his mechanics since pitching with Vancouver last year. His fastball was 89-93 mph, touching 94 on the stadium gun once, and he commanded it to both sides of the plate, running it inside to right-handers. He dazzled with his plus changeup at times, ranging from 82-86 but consistently sitting 83-84, both up and down in the zone. His sweeping 75-79 mph curveball worked well against left-handers and he threw it with good wrist action that caused a sharp 2-8 break. He did throw the curve for strikes, but his command could have been better as he missed the zone more often that not with it, especially outside to left-handed hitters.

Getting the start, Nicolino managed to erase a leadoff single in a scoreless first inning with a heads-up pickoff throw 1-3-6 in his third toss over to first base. Outside of a missed swing with his changeup, he stuck primarily with his fastball during the inning.

In a scoreless second, Nicolino mixed up his pitches a lot more, and his polish became much more evident; he faced four hitters in the frame and took little time to color me impressed. The first thing that stood out was the way he handled Bowling Green leadoff hitter Todd Glaesmann, a right-handed hitter. After throwing a 90 mph fastball down the middle for a called first strike, he switched to his curveball, which was ruled high and inside for a ball. Then, instead of throwing a different pitch, Nicolino went right back to his curveball and placed the offering a hair less inside to get the strike call, before inducing a weakly hit grounder that resulted in an infield single.

The second thing that impressed me that inning wasn’t that Nicolino not only got ahead 0-1 on each of the final three batters of the inning, but that he did so using three different pitches. He threw a 91 mph fastball down the middle to Cameron Seitzer, an 84 mph changeup over the plate to Josh Sale, and a 79 mph inside curveball to Joel Caminero, all for strikes. Facing Caminero with two out, Nicolino toggled exclusively between his curveball and changeup to eventually strike him out swinging. Lugnuts No. 2 broadcaster Keaton Gillogly tweeted a few weeks about how Nicolino’s nasty changeup lives up to the hype, and after seeing it in a game situation first-hand, I certainly agree.

The third inning was really the only spot where Nicolino got into a bit of trouble, where two weak runs were scored on him. After he fielded a chopper to the mound but couldn’t get the runner in time on his throw, a first-pitch single and a double steal quickly put runners on second and third with nobody out. A sacrifice fly and a ground out quickly put two outs on the board but two runs as well, before Nicolino struck out left-handed hitter Jeff Malm swinging on an inside fastball to end the frame.

Leading off the top of the fourth, Nicolino struck out Glaesmann on six pitches: 90 mph fastball outside (ball), 83 mph changeup high (swinging strike), 90 mph fastball outside (swinging strike), 92 mph fastball (foul), 91 mph fastball inside (ball) and an 82 mph changeup low (swinging strike three). After getting his next hitter to ground out, it looked as though Nicolino was going to have a routine 1-2-3 inning. But the next batter, Josh Sale, hammered a 1-0 pitch all the way into a parking lot across the street in right field for a solo home run. It came on a fastball, and was the first home run that Nicolino had surrendered in his pro career.

A single and an error from Lugnuts third baseman Andy Burns quickly put runners on first and second, but Nicolino struck out Bowling Green’s Tyler Goeddel swinging to end the threat. After tossing a first-pitch strike with a fastball, Nicolino impressed me once again by going to his curveball in a jam and throwing it for consecutive strikes.

After his latest start on Tuesday, Nicolino now has a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings for the Lugnuts this season. He’s given up 25 hits over that span, including 12 in his last eight innings, but also has 27 strikeouts to just three walks for a 9:1 ratio.

Even not at his best, Lugnuts left-hander Justin Nicolino was impressive. (KEVIN W. FOWLER, Lansing State Journal)

- JM

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