1. RHP Joel Carreno (LAS): 1-0, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Apr 8, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Joel Carreno (34) delivers in the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

It’s very difficult for any pitcher to place first on a hot sheet with only one start, and even more so early in the year when pitches and innings are heavily restricted. Despite this, Carreno takes the crown as the hottest Blue Jays prospect in the first 10 days of the season. Beyond simply the statistics – which are mighty impressive for anyone – Carreno earns the No. 1 spot thanks to the environment and circumstances in which he pitched this week. As everyone is well aware, Carreno made the start for the Blue Jays third game of the year against Cleveland, and for all intents and purposes, performed admirably. After the game, he was demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas. While this was apparently “the plan all along”, no one made Carreno aware of it, and for obvious reasons he was heartbroken upon hearing the news. Carreno didn’t sulk, however, instead turning in perhaps the best start of his entire minor league career. What is most impressive about the start is that he made it for Las Vegas. Through the first 11 games, the staff has a 6.33 team ERA, ranking 15th out of the 16 Pacific Coast League teams. In that environment, five shutout innings suddenly becomes that much more impressive.

2. RF Justin Jackson (NH): 30 AB, .400/.455/.567 (1.021 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 SB, 3/5 BB/K

It’s been an up and down career for the 2007 first round pick. Once heralded as the shortstop of the future thanks to an excellent glove and a promising bat, Jackson has since been moved down the defensive spectrum while seeing his offensive potential continue to go unfulfilled. While the sample size is extremely small at only 9 games, Jackson has gotten off to a tremendous start in 2012. His game has been very well rounded, as evidenced by his four extra base hits, four stolen bases, and three walks to only five strikeouts. In total, he has reached base in seven of the nine games he has played in. Now 23 years old, he’ll need to sustain this hot start if he wants to have a future as a major league utility man, as he’s not far from being overtaken by younger and more talented prospects.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 2-0, 11.2 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 K

Nolin has made two starts already this season, but the second start alone would have earned him a spot on the first Blue Jays hot sheet of the year. Nolin opened the year with six shutout innings, allowing four hits and striking out two. For an encore, he took his dominance to another level. Nolin pitched five and two-thirds innings on April 12th, allowing only three base runners (all hits) and striking out an astounding eleven batters. Just for good measure, he induced six groundouts against only one fly out. Between the two starts, Nolin is up to nearly 12 innings of shutout ball. If his goal was to draw some attention to himself in a rotation that includes top prospects Asher Wojciechowski and John Stilson, it’s certainly working.

4. SS Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS): 42 AB, .381/.409/.500 (.909 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 2/11 BB/K

After struggling for nearly two full years between High-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire, Hechavarria received a late-season promotion to Las Vegas in 2011. He hit the cover off the ball, to the tune of a .968 OPS and 10 extra base hits in only 108 at-bats. Many people, myself included, were quick to point to both small sample size and the Vegas effect. To the surprise of most, Hechavarria has picked up where he left off, and it might be time to seriously consider the possibility that he’s finally taken a step forward offensively. Hechavarria is the only middle infield prospect in Toronto’s upper minors, so the fact he’s finally showing a pulse at the plate is a very good sign for the club.

5. C Carlos Perez (LAN): 33 AB, .303/.378/.455 (.833 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 4/7 BB/K

The final spot on the hot sheet came down to Perez and his Lansing teammate, outfielder Chris Hawkins. While Hawkins had the better offensive week, I chose to give the nod to Perez due to the adversity he faced entering the season. After playing like a man possessed in his three years of short season ball, Perez failed to live up to expectations in his full season debut in 2011. His performance declined significantly, and his playing time in the second half followed suit. Now, in his second year with the Lugnuts, Perez has to prove last season was the fluke, not the three years prior. His first week-plus of the 2012 season was very reminiscent of his previous success, and for many players, a hot start is all you need to regain lost confidence and go on a lengthy tear.

Travis Snider Watch: 38 AB, .421/.476/.763 (1.239 OPS), 4 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, 4/6 BB/K

As long as he’s a member of the Toronto Blue Jays organization, you will find me steadfast in the corner of Travis Snider. A fact that some fans may too easily forget is that, while the system is in much better shape now than it has been in a decade, Travis Snider is still the best single prospect we’ve had since Roy Halladay was a minor leaguer. He was rushed to the major leagues as a 20 year old in September 2008, and has become a frequent flyer between Toronto and Las Vegas since. In the three years since his debut, he has accumulated 726 major league at-bats and 522 minor league at-bats – not exactly a recipe for success for an elite prospect.

I won’t argue he’s been extremely streaky when with Toronto, but that’s to be expected with young players – he’s still only 24 – particularly when their managers appear to derive pleasure from jerking them in and out of the lineup. What can be said with certainty, however, is that Snider will never be able to make the necessary adaptations to big league calibre pitchers while marooned in Triple-A. He has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, as evident by his insane start to the 2012 season. Snider should have been the Opening Day starter in left field, but another week of dominance combined with continued lackluster play by Eric Thames could result in a swap of roles far sooner than most expected.

Honorable mentions: Sam Dyson (DUN), John Stilson (DUN), Justin Nicolino (LAN), Drew Hutchison (NH), Chris Hawkins (LAN)

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Anthony Gose, meanwhile, has been in the spotlight ever since he was traded to the Jays in return for Brett Wallace. With the success of Wallace in Houston (.290/.374/.413), many fans have amped up their opinions that the Jays may have lost out in this trade. I vehemently disagree with them, and will point to the recent ever increasing success of Anthony to prove my point. (more…)

There are many surprises, and many expected performances. One note, before we begin, is that the Jays traded 2B Niuman Romero (26) to the Phillies in return for Future Considerations. He only had 25 ABs with Las Vegas this season (his only one within the Jays organization) which makes his stay with the Jays really brief.

Aside from that bit of news, here’s what I’ve noticed:

The 10 Hottest Jays Hitting Prospects (more…)

In what I hope to have as a daily update for you, the minor league recaps are designed to not only keep you up to date with everything concerning the Jays’ affiliates, but also to provide it all in one quick and easy place, saving you the hassle of sifting through team websites, box scores, and standings.

Check back tomorrow morning for Fisher Cats and Lugnuts rundowns of games being played tonight.

(more…)

image courtesy of Gary W. Green of the orlandosentinel.com

#43: Justin Nicolino

19 years old / 6’3″ 160 lbs

Born: November 22nd 1991 in Orlando, Florida

Bats Left   Throws Left

High School Team: University High School (wore #11)

College: N/A

Drafted: by the Jays in the 2nd rd, 80th overall, of the ’10 First-Year Player Draft. Signed for a reported $615,000 and his deal also includes the Jays paying for his education. He was signed away from a verbal commitment to playing College ball for Virginia.

Wears: #77 for the GCL Blue Jays

(more…)

Brett Cecil has had plenty of time to prepare and watch the Phillies hit, so hopefully he took the right notes. I really do like how Cito set up the lineup yesterday, although I’m not sure it will last. Batting Lind and Hill lower in the lineup gives them more RBI opportunities and is definitely the change of pace both needed to get back on track and motivated.It’ll be interesting to see if he uses a similar lineup today. (more…)

It’s great to see that Travis started the year off on the right foot. If he stays hot until mid-season, he should easily be able to get a promotion to AA.

POSITION CHANGES ALERT

As we all know, the Jays will soon have Adeiny Hechevarria in the minors and this has altered their long term plans for some minors players. They also had Justin Jackson and Tyler Pastornicky playing at the same level, meaning that something had to give. Well, here’s what that squad has done to deal with these issues:

• John Tolisano has been moved from 2B to 3B;
• Tyler Pastornicky remained at SS; and
• Justin Jackson moved from SS to 2B.

Now, that was just 1 game, so it doesn’t mean that it will remain this way as the season goes on, but it does make some sense that both Pastornicky and Jackson get accustomed to moving around the infield so that they fit as utility players down the road. Also, Tolisano’s power fits better at 3B and he has the arm to play the position, so that also deepens the Jays depth at a very weak internal position.

I’ll update this situation as the season wears on and will update my top prospects rankings when this setup has been used consistently.

1 – Gustavo Pierre, 18 yrs old, 6’2″ 183 lbs, signed as an international FA for $750,000 in July 2008

Almost everyone you will talk to who know Jays prospects very well will tell you that they expect Gustavo to move to 3B before he reaches MLB. Still, since he hasn’t played any other position yet as a pro, I have decided to include him on both my 3B and SS list because the Jays do have the option to use him in either role depending on what they have on the team and in terms of what they have as up-and-coming prospects. Gustavo is still too young to evaluate well, but he has shown some real potential in all areas of his game. He hits the ball with authority, with 18 extra base hits out of his 45 total hits in a short season, and also accumulated a decent .431 SLG. He hits RHP (.278) a lot more consistently than LHP (.195), not unusual for young hitters, so learning to hit lefties is definitely on his list of things to improve on. He also needs to learn how to walk, with only 3 walks and 45 strike outs in 2009. At 17 yrs old in the GCL, Gustavo did better than fellow international signed Balbino Fuenmayor who has progressed immensely since that time. Therefore, I consider Gustavo‘s first season a moderate success that he can build on in 2010. He should be the SS for the Lansing squad in 2010 and if  all things go as planned, he should develop a lot of power and confidence as he grows stronger and more experienced.

2 - Justin Jackson, 21 yrs old, 6’1″ 186 lbs, drafted in 1st rd (45th overall) of the 2007 draft

Justin was part of what became one of the most active drafts in Jays history, when they had 7 picks in the first 2 rounds of the draft and actually signed them all. Most of them (Kevin Ahrens, Trystan Magnuson, Eric Eiland, and John Tolisano) have disappointed in development thus far, with Brett Cecil and J. P. Arencibia being the possible exceptions to those high picks. Justin had some injury woes in 2009, so that season was pretty much lost in terms of development. His stats reflect that with a .200 average versus RHP, .213 average overall, and way too many strike outs with 87 strike outs in 249 AB. More worrisome were his .269 SLG and .321 OBP, which are much lower than his 2008 levels of .368 SLG and .340 OBP. He did manage to steal just as many bases in almost half the ABs, taking 17 and getting caught only 4 times in 2009. Despite mediocre offense and a fair amount of errors each season, Justin has been pushed up to the next level and set up to fail because of it. I really do hope they let him begin the season in HiA Dunedin in 2010 and don’t push him up to AA. If he’s ever going to make it to the show and be an impact player, he needs to learn how to hit consistently and to get on base. I have a feeling Justin‘s injuries hurt his performance, and also believe that he was trying too hard to be a power bat, which hurt his chances to get on base. With his steal potential and overall abilities, Justin should be concentrating on hitting for average and letting the power happen on its own over time as he grows stronger. Hopefully Justin gets a full healthy season under his belt in 2010 and he could make it to AA by year’s end if things go well.

3 - Tyler Pastornicky, 20 yrs old, 5’11″ 170 lbs, drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft

If it wasn’t for the injury woes that Justin Jackson endured and Gustavo Pierre‘s intriguing hitting potential, Tyler would have topped this list by far. He’s that pesky type of player that drives opposing teams nuts because he can hurt you in many ways. The biggest way he can hurt you is wit his dazzling speed, which he used to steal 57 bases in 2009. I always like to add those to the doubles total in order to get a taste of what a player’s impact really is, and if you add those 57 steals to his doubles count Tyler had 71 doubles. Now that’s an impact player. He gets on base a lot more than Justin, with a .331 OBP and struck out 57 times to his 42 walks in 2009, which is pretty good for such a young player. His fielding percentage is on par with Justin‘s at .951, but I’ve always believed that faster players have lower percentages simply based on their range and the number of opportunities that it adds to their totals. Tyler ended the year in HiA Dunedin, where Justin Jackson should begin the season, so there lies the dilemma, to send him to AA or send Justin instead. If it were me making the decision, Tyler needs to be pushed a little and go to AA instead of Justin. I’ll update this scenario at the beginning of the season, but if they send Justin to AA it could seriously hurt his chances of ever developing confidence, where as sending Tyler would provide the Jays with a better look at what they have in-house in terms of close-to-immediate help at the position. Tyler‘s definitely my favorite SS in the minors for the Jays, still, I have to respect Justin‘s and Gustavo‘s overall potential.

4 – Mike McCoy, 28 yrs old, 5’9″ 171 lbs, Acquired off waivers Colorado, was originally drafted by STL in the 34th rd of 2002 draft

Although he’s a little old to be considered a prospect, the Jays are lacking so much depth at the SS position that I decided to include him on the list. In this recent post, I looked at the immediate impact Mike McCoy could have for the Jays in 2010 and how he could end up being the bench king for the squad. Not only does he had extensive experience at all positions, but he has varying tools that the Jays desperately need in order to be successful in 2010. He has speed, something the Jays have lacked for a very long time, with 40 SB in 2009 in AAA. He gets on base a ton, proven by his .405 OBP in AAA last season. He fields every single position he plays at above average and can also fill the lead off hole in the lineup the Jays currently have. I’ll even go as far as to say this: if Mike McCoy has a very strong spring and proves he deserves to play every day, the Jays could wind up trading Alex Gonzalez earlier than any of us believe they would in 2010. He has the potential to be the 2010 version of Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones, a player who just needed a chance to prove he can play in MLB. I certainly hope he gets that chance and does well, as he could set up the table for Aaron Hill and company very well. He should begin the year on the Jays bench if he does well in spring, if not it’ll be a return to AAA.

5 - Ryan Goins, 22 yrs old, 5’10″ 170 lbs, drafted by the Jays in the 4th rd of the 2009 draft

You can catch the 2009 MLB draft video of Ryan here. Goins hit 14 doubles, 10 HRs, had a .357 average, and maintained a .404 OBP in his 2008 college season at Dallas Baptist University. From there, he upped his performance to 22 HRs and a .371 average in 2009 before the draft, when he was listed as a second baseman. The Jays drafted him and have had him play SS ever since in part due to his very strong and accurate arm. He played on 3 teams for the Jays in 2009, but oddly enough did not show any power at all during the season, while holding his own average wise with a .297 average in Auburn in 101 ABs. He seemed to struggle a little more in Lansing, with a .198 average and .258 OBP in 81 ABs, but should improve on that in 2010. There’s no question that Ryan has overall potential to become a good and perhaps slightly above-average SS, but he lacks the overall package to make him a top-rated SS right now. When asked about Goins before the draft, Baseball America’s Jim Callis said the following: “Still don’t think he’s a top-five-rounds guy. He has a plus-plus arm but he’s a below-average runner, so he’s going to have to be an offensive second baseman. He can hit, but the ball flies out at Dallas Baptist. I like him, but he might be only the fourth best college projected second baseman in this draft, behind Shaver Hansen (Baylor), Brodie Greene (Texas A&M) and Brock Holt (Rice).”

The biggest question the Jays have to decide on is who plays where in 2010. If Pastornicky and Jackson are to fill the SS position at HiA and AA, which one of Pierre and Goins gets the call in LoA? It’s either a call of allowing Pierre to spend one more season in the GCL and keeping Goins in LoA, or in moving Pierre to 3B and allowing both to play in LoA as a result. I believe the Jays are ready to move Pierre to 3B, so I vote for the latter option.

Short stops in the system who didn’t make the cut: Manuel Mayorson (AAA), Luis Sanchez (AA), Daniel Arcila (DSL), Alvaro Blanco (DSL).