John Stilson was a third round back in 2011, and reached as high as Double-A in his debut season (Image courtesy the TexarkanaGazette,com)

Name: John Stilson

Position: Right Handed Pitcher

Date of Birth: 07/28/1990 (22)

Acquired: Selected in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft ($500,000 USD)

High School: Texas High School (Texarkana, TX)

College: Texas A&M

Height/Weight: 6’3”/200 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Ranked 25th on 2012 top 30 prospects list

2012 Statistics and Analysis

5-4, 104.1 IP, 110 H, 45 ER, 8 HR, 42 BB, 91 K
3.88 ERA (3.78 FIP), 1.46 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 1.00 GO/AO

The 2012 season was Stilson’s professional debut, and you can really break the year down into three segments. From April 5th through May 12th, Stilson was on a very strict pitch count. He was coming off a major shoulder injury, and as such the organization didn’t want to push him too hard. In those eight starts, he completed the fifth only once, allowing eight earned runs while striking out 25 in 29.1 IP (2.45 ERA). From May 18th through July 27th, the leash was eased out and Stilson would complete five innings in 11 of 14 starts. In those 64 innings, he allowed 30 earned runs while striking out 54 batters (4.22 ERA). Fatigue was clearly becoming an issue as he allowed 13 hits and nine earned runs over his final seven innings, so the Blue Jays allowed him to finish the season in the bullpen; the third segment. Making eight relief appearances, Stilson struck out 12 and allowed seven earned runs over 11 innings pitched (5.73 ERA). The numbers as a whole aren’t earth shattering, but when you attribute fatigue to some of his late season failings, the results are far more encouraging for the long term.

Scouting Report

Video (via Kevin Gray, graymatter11.com)

Delivery Mechanics

Throughout his college career, John Stilson had an extremely violent delivery. Not only was his arm action rough, his stride landed on the third base side of the mound, forcing him to throw across his body and cause even more strain on his arm. Since being drafted by the Blue Jays, the organization’s minor league coaches have made an effort to clean up his mechanics. Stilson’s stride is squarer to the plate, and while his arm action is improved, it still has visible effort. The alterations did have negative impacts, however, as Stilson’s velocity has fallen back a notch and the more traditional release point has taken away from some of his deception.

Pitch Arsenal Breakdown

Depending upon who you ask, John Stilson either has three or four pitches. The first two are very clear, as they’re the right hander’s top two offerings. He features a plus calibre fastball that sits between 91 and 94 miles per hour while in the rotation. In short stints out of the bullpen it’s a grade better, as Stilson will consistently work around the 95 mph mark and touch even higher. His best gun reading came during college while serving as the Aggies closer, as the big Texan hit 99 mph. The fastball has average movement as it’s more of a traditional four-seamer than a two-seamer or sinker, but he’s always commanded it quite well.

Stilson’s strikeout pitch is a low-to-mid 80’s changeup that has received equally impressive reviews. The offspeed pitch has a tremendous amount of sink, and while it has lost some deception with Stilson’s more streamlined mechanics, he still has the requisite arm speed to keep hitters off balance. The changeup is already very impressive, and like the fastball, it has the potential to be a plus pitch. When you combine these two pitches with a competitive and fiery demeanour, it quickly becomes apparent why most feel John Stilson would be a highly effective late inning reliever.

If he is to remain a starter, he’ll need to make improvements in the breaking ball department, and this brings us back to the three/four pitch question. He’ll throw two breaking balls at very different velocities – one in the high 70’s, the other in the mid 80’s – and while some classify the pitches as distinctly separate offerings (a curveball and slider), others argue that it’s simply one slurve-type pitch that Stilson will manipulate to do different things depending upon the situation. Regardless of what you want to call the breaking ball, it’s noticeably behind the fastball and changeup in development, consistency, and command. The best future grade I’ve seen on the pitch is average, but if Stilson remains in the bullpen (where he belongs), it’s a rather moot point.

Projection

John Stilson has the raw stuff to be a solid mid-rotation starter, but durability concerns will likely keep him in the bullpen where he has the perfect world projection of an upper echelon closer.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

The injury concerns reared their ugly head late in 2012, as after originally being assigned to the Arizona Fall League to represent the Blue Jays, Stilson was pulled off the roster just before games started because of lingering arm soreness – over a month after his last official appearance. Assuming he has progressed past that soreness, Stilson should return to New Hampshire in the spring where he concluded last season with 50 innings. I suspect he’ll be returning to the rotation as well, as the Blue Jays have become known for giving pitching prospects every opportunity to prove they can stick in the rotation before demoting them to relief duties.

There’s an old baseball adage that “an arm only has so many bullets”, and I feel like the organization is wasting too many of Stilson’s by attempting to start him in what will inevitably look like an act of futility. Max effort pitchers like Stilson have a place, and it’s at the back end of a major league bullpen. If Toronto made the change this spring, he could be contributing at the major league level in the second half of 2013. If they continue with the starter experiment, we’re looking at a 2014 debut, and by the time he arrives there will be another 150-plus innings of wear and tear on the shoulder. Stilson’s developed arsenal and proximity to the show make him medium risk, but as long as the Blue Jays keep up this starter’s charade, the risk is medium-high.

In addition to the Blue Jays content, there are a few other prospects to keep an eye on with the Rafters. Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin of the Nationals are legitimate top prospects, as are Matt Davidson of the Diamondbacks and Trayce Thompson of the White Sox. However, as this is a Blue Jays website, the focus will rightfully be on Toronto’s contributions. Below is a breakdown of the seven players Toronto has chosen to send, as well as some expectations of the role they make play and the success they may or may not have.

RHP Deck McGuire (Double-A)

5-15, 144.0 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 62 BB, 97 K, 5.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.06 K/9

Deck McGuire was Toronto’s 1st round pick in the 2010 draft (RENE JOHNSTON/TORONTO STAR)

Deck McGuire is both the least and most surprising amongst the Blue Jays contributions to the Arizona Fall League. On one hand, he had, from beginning to end, arguably the worst season of any pitcher in the minor league system this year. With that in mind, sending him to get some extra work in seems like a good opportunity to enter the offseason in a positive frame of mind. On the other hand, the Arizona Fall League is probably the least pitcher friendly environment in all of North American baseball. Not only is it played at high altitude in the southwestern US, but teams often send top hitting prospects on the cusp of a major league promotion there as a final dress rehearsal. Ergo, while sending McGuire to get extra work may seem like a good idea, the possibility of him getting absolutely shelled and taking a step backwards confidence-wise is very real. His flyball-heavy tendencies thus far in his minor league career don’t help my concerns either.

RHP John Stilson (High-A, Double-A)

5-4, 104.1 IP, 110 H, 45 ER, 8 HR, 42 BB, 91 K, 3.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.85 K/9

Admittedly, seeing John Stilson assigned to the Salt River Rafters was a bit of a shock for me. He is coming off a fairly heavy workload in his first professional season, particularly considering the question marks surrounding a shoulder injury at the end of his college career. What this assignment tells me is that the Blue Jays plan to move forward with the relief role for Stilly, which, as I’ve voiced a number of times, I feel is the right course of action. In terms of both quality of stuff and career longevity, the bullpen is the logical choice. We won’t know for sure until games get underway and box scores start to pile up, but the team may be preparing him for a mid-2013 debut as a late inning fireman.

RHP Sam Dyson (High-A, Double-A)

4-2, 74.0 IP, 73 H, 25 ER, 3 HR, 20 BB, 38 K, 3.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.62 K/9

The Sam Dyson selection makes a whole lot of sense. He has a splash of major league experience (2 games), and very likely will be counted on to contribute at some point during the 2013 season. Those 74 innings were also the first of his career thanks to some injury difficulties in previous years, so any added work would have to be looked upon as a bonus for the 24 year old. Additionally, Dyson is not the type of arm you worry about in the Arizona Fall League for two reasons. First, his ceiling is, at best, a 7th or 8th inning reliever, and more likely the former. While you always care about the confidence level of a prospect, you’re more willing to take risks with the bullpen guy than the future top of the rotation starter. The second reason is his groundball tendencies, as he had a 3.09 GO/AO ratio between Dunedin and New Hampshire last season. Heavy sinkers are the best way to combat the thin air environment.

RHP Ryan Tepera (High-A, Double-A)

8-6, 95.1 IP, 109 H, 58 ER, 7 HR, 49 BB, 71 K, 5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 6.70 K/9

With the Blue Jays required to send four pitchers to the Fall League, chances were high at least one of them was going to be an org guy. Ryan Tepera falls into that category this year. It’s nothing new, as last season the Blue Jays sent Wes Etheridge as their fourth pitcher, and in 2010, it was Matt Daly. Tepera was a 19th round pick by the Blue Jays back in 2009, and in his four years the highest level he has reached was Double-A here in 2012. The results have been subpar, and now 25, a major league future is beyond doubtful. Tepera’s role in the organization is to collect innings where needed and protect the valuable young arms from excessive workloads. He could be in a similar position with the Rafters as well.

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A, Double-A)

489 AB, .249/.321/.399 (.719 OPS), 29 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 24 SB, 37/100 BB/K

Jake Marisnick is the only true elite talent the Blue Jays have chosen to send to Arizona this fall, and he likely has redemption on his mind after a subpar second half performance. After a promotion to Double-A, Marisnick’s numbers fell across the board. His contact rate sunk; as did his walk rate and power. The only positive from his second half numbers was a spike in stolen base numbers, but his bat skills are far more important to me than his athleticism at this point in his development. As I’ve mentioned, high elevation and low quality pitchers make the Arizona Fall League an ideal environment for hitters, and with Marisnick’s inherent talent, the 21 year old should be poised for a smashing performance. Anything less could be considered a serious disappointment.

SS Ryan Goins (Double-A)

546 AB, .289/.342/.403 (.745 OPS), 33 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 47/78 BB/K

With nine infielders on the roster, Ryan Goins is unlikely to see a ton of playing time. I expect Chris Owings will be the primary starter at shortstop for the Rafters, but Goins’ defensive versatility should allow him to squeak in some games at second base as well. The 24 year old doesn’t have the flashy tools, but he has a sound approach at the plate and can hold his own in the field. He’s not going to be a star and is unlikely to even be a steady regular, but Goins is the type of guy who would fit in extremely well as the 25th man on the roster for somebody. These at-bats could prove valuable, as with four years of minor league service under his belt as a former college draft pick, Ryan Goins should be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

OF Kevin Pillar (Single-A, High-A)

499 AB, .323/.374/.439 (.813 OPS), 28 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 91 RBI, 51 SB, 40/70 BB/K

Kevin Pillar is the only player on the list who didn’t play in Double-A this season, but at 23 years old, he’s in a similar age bracket to most. He got off to a great start with Lansing, hitting .322 with an .841 OPS in 86 games. That earned him a promotion to Dunedin, and while he hit .323 there, the secondary numbers dropped off dramatically. Pillar’s walk rate dropped from 9.3% to 2.8%, and his isolated power dropped 37 points as well. All told, his OPS slipped to .754 in 42 games. While the Arizona Fall League is thin on pitching prospects, there are plenty of crafty minor league veterans who could take advantage of Pillar’s underdeveloped game. As such, he’s been classified as a “taxi squad” roster player, meaning he can only be active on Wednesdays and Saturdays. The Blue Jays appear to be setting Pillar up for more of a learning experience than a test.

I wouldn’t classify the list as underwhelming, but it’s missing a certain catcher whom I had both hoped and expected to see assigned. Travis d’Arnaud tore up his knee in late June, and at the time it was suggested he was looking at roughly an eight week recovery. That would have placed him at a late August or early September return, which isn’t particularly ideal for a prospect. The Triple-A season would be coming to a close, and it would be cruel to expect d’Arnaud to make his major league debut coming off a knee injury with no rehab assignment.

I can’t remember if it was ever said by General Manager Alex Anthopolous, but at the time it was widely speculated that d’Arnaud would finish his season in the Arizona Fall League, allowing him to recover some lost at-bats and better prepare himself for a possible starting assignment next spring. The fact he was held off the roster suggests two possible scenarios, neither of which makes me feel particularly good.

The first is that the knee injury has taken longer to recover from than initially expected. That would be extremely bad, as catchers are required to squat for brutally long periods of time every day, which is hard on the knees to say the least. It would also be yet another knock against d’Arnaud in the injury prone department, as in just the last few years he’s dealt with recurring back issues as well as a torn thumb ligament. Some level of durability is expected of catchers, and if this knee problem is lingering, one would have to seriously question d’Arnaud’s long term future behind the plate.

The second scenario is less worrisome but just as frustrating. By holding a healthy d’Arnaud out of the Arizona Fall League, the team would be all but handing the starting catcher job to J.P. Arencibia. While once could argue that d’Arnaud has done nothing at the major league level and shouldn’t simply be handed the starting job, one could also point out that Arencibia has a .272 on-base percentage in 229 career games. I was hoping to see a fair competition in spring training for the starting job, but if this is the accurate scenario, we appear headed for another Travis Snider / Eric Thames situation: a “competition” that is decided before it even starts.

Despite all this, those of us sitting comfortably in our temperature controlled offices, houses, and apartments expect the players to have consistently strong seasons from the beginning of April through to the end of August. In reality, it rarely happens. Hot streaks and cold streaks are the normality, with players hoping when all is said that the hot will outweigh the cold. Listed below are eight players. The first four are Blue Jays prospects who overcame the conditions and battled through the season, coming on at their strongest in the second half. The second group of Blue Jays prospects are those who got off to a hot start, but failed to carry it through to the end of the season.

The pre- and post-All Star designations are based upon the individual league that the prospects played in. For example, the Midwest League All Star break is in late June, while the Eastern League All Star break takes place in early July. For players who split the season between two minor league levels, the separation is from the level at which they were playing when they experienced the All Star break. As short season players have no first half, they’re omitted from consideration for this article.

Second Half Studs

The prospects with the best second half, with images courtesy the US Presswire, The Girl's Guide to the Blue Jays, Sports Road Trips, and Ward Perrin of Canada.com

RHP Noah Syndergaard (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 3-2, 43.2 IP, 44 H, 19 ER, 3 HR, 15 BB, 57 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.75 K/9
• Post All-Star: 5-3, 60.0 IP, 37 H, 11 ER, 0 HR, 16 BB, 65 K, 1.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.75 K/9

Noah Syndergaard opened the year pitching in tandem with Anthony DeSclafani. They alternated who started the game and who relieved, and as I wrote in detail months ago, Syndergaard didn’t handle pitching out of the bullpen very well whatsoever. As such, it’s no surprise that once he was freed from the clutches of relief work in the second half, his numbers really took off. His 65 post All-Star strikeouts were the third most in the Blue Jays system, behind Javier Avendano and Justin Nicolino, though both pitchers had a significant inning advantage. The word “overhyped” was starting to get thrown around in prospects circles when Syndergaard’s ERA was sitting around the 4.00 mark, but his downright filthy second half performance should cement his position as an elite pitching prospect. The jump from Single-A to High-A is significant, so Syndergaard will need to have a focused offseason if he hopes to have another dominant season for Dunedin – and possibly New Hampshire – in 2013.

3B Gustavo Pierre (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 52 AB, .135/.224/.250 (.474 OPS), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 6/16 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 226 AB, .279/.321/.451 (.772 OPS), 13 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 5 SB, 10/63 BB/K

Gustavo Pierre opened the 2011 season with Lansing, but after hitting .187/.244/.262 in 56 games while playing porous defense at shortstop, he was demoted down to Bluefield. He finished the year very strongly, but when assignments came this spring, Pierre’s was to extended spring training instead of full season ball. Thanks to injuries and the poor performance of another player on this list, however, he got a second chance with the Lugnuts at the end of May. The season quickly became reminiscent of 2011, as through his first 15 games he had an unsettling .474 OPS. The team stuck with him this time, and it paid off in the second half, as Pierre was one of the Lugnuts’ most consistent hitters in July and August. The decrease in stress from shifting down the defensive spectrum to third base likely helped substantially, as while the 20 year old is still extremely raw in the field, his body type is much better suited to the hot corner.

RHP Danny Barnes (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 17 SV, 27.2 IP, 28 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 28 K, 2.28 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.11 K/9
• Post All-Star: 17 SV, 23.2 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 35 K, 0.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 13.31 K/9

After a dominant full season debut with Lansing in 2011, I ranked Barnes as the Blue Jays’ 29th best prospect; not an insignificant honor for a relief pitcher in such a deep system. Things didn’t get off quite so well with Dunedin in the first half of 2012. Sure, the ERA was sexy and he was piling up saves, but the strikeout rate was well down from 2011 (13.50 K/9), and way too many runners were getting on base. The way he was pitching, an implosion seemed inevitable. Something happened around the All-Star break though, as in the second half of the season Barnes pitched like a man possessed. His strikeout rate returned to its previous level of dominance, and he allowed just 13 base runners in 22 games. Barnes’ stellar finish to the season guarantees a Double-A assignment next spring, with the major leagues a distinct possibility in the not so distant future.

3B Kellen Sweeney (Single-A Lansing, Low-A Vancouver)

• Pre All-Star: 117 AB, .188/.314/.222 (.536 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 21/27 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 268 AB, .220/.319/.347 (.666 OPS), 15 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 5 SB, 37/50 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney was the sleeper pick amongst many Blue Jays fans entering the 2012 season. He was a second round pick in the 2010 draft, but thanks to a late contract agreement and a serious wrist injury in 2011, he had appeared in just 27 games through his first two seasons. The team knew they needed to get the 20 year olds career moving in the right direction, so they handed him a bold Lansing assignment. It didn’t take long to realize Sweeney wasn’t ready, as he was simply awful through the first two months of the season. Gustavo Pierre took his roster spot, and Sweeney was sent to extended spring training to await short season ball. He has been significantly better with Vancouver in the second half, with his OPS improving each month from June through August. Sweeney should prepare himself for a second crack at the Midwest League next spring, because a lot will be riding on his performance.

Second Half Duds

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 285 AB, .256/.338/.439 (.777 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 10 SB, 26/61 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 204 AB, .240/.293/.343 (.636 OPS), 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 14 SB, 11/39 BB/K

Jake Marisnick had a very strong start to the season in High-A Dunedin. While the numbers were down compared to his breakout 2011 season with Lansing, he was still at or around the .800 OPS mark for much of his time in the Florida State League, which is quite an accomplishment. The FSL is a notoriously difficult place to hit, and Marisnick’s performance was accentuated by the painful-to-watch struggles of the corner outfielders to his left and right. Things went substantially downhill after a promotion to the Eastern League, as at times Marisnick looked completely overmatched. If not for a strong closing week, his second half OPS would have been below .600. He still has all the tools in the world and is looked upon very favorably in the scouting community, but he will have a chance at statistical redemption when he represents the Blue Jays in the Arizona Fall League later this year.

RHP Aaron Sanchez (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 6-0, 47.0 IP, 24 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 28 BB, 53 K, 0.77 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.15 K/9
• Post All-Star: 2-5, 43.1 IP, 40 H, 21 ER, 3 HR, 23 BB, 44 K, 4.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.14 K/9

Fluff pieces were aplenty about Aaron Sanchez in the first half, and I was guilty of more than a few. The above line makes it readily apparent why – he truly was filthy. The scouting reports were just as glowing, as scouts were more than willing to label Sanchez’ curveball as one of the best in minor league baseball. His 97 mph capable fastball is pretty nice, too. Control and command have always been the question with Sanchez, and they became a big problem in the second half, particularly on the command end. His walk rate remained similar, but the pitches entering the zone weren’t going exactly where he wanted. Instead of pounding down like he did in the first half (.156 opponents average, 2.76 GO/AO, 0 HR), his location drifted upwards, leading to a huge increase in hitability (.252 opponents average, 1.82 GO/AO, 3 HR). Sanchez’ failure to finish his pitches suggests this is a case of fatigue, as the right hander threw just 54.1 innings in 2011. While the second half numbers are disappointing, the experience should better prepare him for yet another workload increase next season.

RHP John Stilson (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 5-1, 76.1 IP, 75 H, 24 ER, 2 HR, 29 BB, 64 K, 2.83 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.55 K/9
• Post All-Star: 0-3, 28.0 IP, 35 H, 21 ER, 6 HR, 13 BB, 27 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 8.68 K/9

John Stilson was one of the biggest question marks in the farm system entering the season, and the Blue Jays’ handling of the right hander supplied few answers. Stilson suffered a serious shoulder injury in his final college season, and there were doubts he’d be able to start the year on time. He did, and the team pushed him right into the High-A rotation where he had an excellent first half. The strikeout rate was merely average, but for a player making his professional debut, the results were more than satisfactory. Stilson received a mid-June promotion to Double-A, where things quickly unraveled. The move to the bullpen at the beginning of August likely tied in to an innings cap, so perhaps the drop in performance was fatigue related. Stilson will return to New Hampshire to open 2013, and if the Blue Jays have any sense about them, it will be in a permanent relief role. It speaks volumes when a college pitcher struggles to reach the 100 inning plateau in the minor leagues.

LF Marcus Knecht (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 219 AB, .228/.328/.438 (.766 OPS), 16 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 31/72 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 233 AB, .193/.277/.343 (.620 OPS), 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB, 19/74 BB/K

A 3rd round pick in the 2010 draft, Marcus Knecht established himself on the prospect radar with a big season for Lansing in 2011, particularly for his combination of power (199 ISO) and plate discipline (12.7% walk rate). He joined the aforementioned Marisnick in Dunedin, with high expectations. Like Marisnick, Knecht had a solid albeit unspectacular first half. His batting average plummeted due to a soaring strikeout rate, but his power and plate discipline kept his overall batting line respectable. Things got worse in the second half, as not only did his contact rate take yet another step backwards, but his usually strong accessory statistics fell flat as well. The overall season line is rather unsightly, as Knecht was just barely able to keep his on base percentage above the .300 mark. While a Double-A assignment next spring isn’t out of the question, his second half was so poor that the Blue Jays might decide Knecht needs to prove himself capable of hitting High-A pitching for a couple of months.

1. CF D.J. Davis (BLU): 29 AB, 9 H, .310/.394/.552 (.946 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 SB, 3/7 BB/K

D.J. Davis was Toronto's number one pick in the 2012 draft (Image courtesy PerfectGame.org)

The Blue Jays number one pick in last June appears to have taken a real liking to Bluefield. Since being promoted up from the Gulf Coast League in mid-August, Davis has filled up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. This week was no different, as he reached base in each of his seven games, and reached at least twice in five of those seven. With his on-base percentage sitting at a lovely .394 for the week, his legs took over, as Davis racked up four more stolen bases, giving him a total of 24 in 55 games. That’s roughly a 70 stolen base pace over the course of a full season. That’s what scouts call 80 speed. The most pleasant part of Davis’ debut has been the power, as while few called him a slap hitter out of the draft, no one suggested a 148 ISO in year one either. Davis has done just that, with 18 extra base hits, including five home runs.

2. RHP Javier Avendano (VAN): 1-0, 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 15 K

Why is Javier Avendano still pitching in the Northwest League? His two starts this week continued a trend of dominance that dates back over a month. Since the 16th of July, Avendano has allowed just four earned runs in 47 innings – a 0.77 ERA. The peripherals have been just as strong, as he struck out 55 and walked just 13. He’s second in the league in ERA and WHIP, and first in strikeouts – twenty ahead of the second place pitcher, Victor Sanchez of the Mariners, who is a top prospect in his own right. Avendano has proven himself in both Lansing and Vancouver, and if I had some input on the minor league decision making, he would have been promoted to Dunedin a month ago. Avendano has been the Northwest League pitcher of the week for two weeks running, and given the numbers above, a third consecutive title is likely headed his way.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 0-0, 9 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 11 K

Last week’s hottest prospect slips to third place this week, due mostly to some shaky command in his August 25th start. Less important than the three walks was his pitch count, as Nolin threw 81 in just four innings, forcing the manager to pull him earlier than we all would have liked. This late in the minor league season, with nearly every pitcher nursing a bit of arm soreness, there was no reason to send him out for the fifth after four stressful innings. Even so, his August 20th start was more than enough to give him a high ranking, as he struck out eight Binghamton batters in five innings, allowing just one run on four hits. With the playoffs well out of reach, the Fisher Cats have just eight days left in their season. Nolin is probably looking at one more start, and at just 4.2 innings shy of 100 for the year, you know he’d love to reach the century mark.

4. 3B Kellen Sweeney (VAN): 25 AB, .320/.452/.400 (.852 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 6/3 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney is having the best month of his young career, and is showing Blue Jays fans the talent that made him a second round pick back in the 2010 draft. Sweeney has continued to do what he does best, reaching base in 20 of 24 August games. It hasn’t just been walks, as he’s hit and even hit with some authority. Sweeney has 26 hits in those 24 games, 10 of which have gone for extra base hits. In total, his August slash line is up to .292/.388/.461, which is exceptional production from the hot corner. His overall Vancouver line has risen up to respectability, sitting at .232/.339/.382 through 63 games. A month ago, it was looking like Sweeney was going to fall off my top 30 prospect list altogether, but he’s done enough here in August to tread water and earn himself another look in 2013.

5. RHP John Stilson (NH): 0-0, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

All season I have been pushing the “John Stilson to the bullpen” card, and after a short stint on the disabled list earlier this month, the Blue Jays have finally responded. Stilson simply doesn’t have the mechanics or durability to pitch 200 innings year in and year out – the risk of shoulder aggravation is too great. The 2011 third round pick seems to have taken to the relief role quite well, as in his five total appearances (seven innings), Stilson has allowed just eight base runners and one run, while striking out nine. He even earned his first career save on August 17th – the first of many, I hope. While closing for Texas A&M his stuff played up extremely well, and if that has carried over to pro ball, the Blue Jays could have a very electric reliever on their hands.

6. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Nicolino has appeared on five consecutive hot sheets, which speaks volumes about the type of season the left hander has had down in Lansing. I can’t say enough about the reliability of Nicolino, as since being moved exclusively to the rotation on June 11th, he’s pitched at least four innings in every game, and at least five in 12 of his last 13 starts. In the statistical age we currently live in, durability often gets overlooked, but there’s something to be said for a pitcher who can go out every fifth day and give your team a good chance to win. The fact Nicolino has found this consistency at just 20 years of age makes it that much more impressive. With another week left in the season, plus the playoffs, Nicolino could easily find himself approaching 130 innings before all is said and done. It’s not an insignificant jump (he had just 61 innings in 2011), but as he doesn’t throw max effort on every pitch, the Blue Jays obviously feel Nicolino has the type of arm that can handle such a workload without substantial risk.

7. 2B Christian Lopes (VAN): 24 AB, .375/.423/.417 (.840 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB, 1/4 BB/K

Without a doubt, Christian Lopes has been the star hitter of short season ball in the Toronto organization. He skipped the Gulf Coast League and debuted with Bluefield, and after 49 exceptional games there, he received the promotion the Vancouver. Lopes hasn’t skipped a beat since setting foot on Canadian soil, as he has two or more hits in three of his five games for the club. Between the two levels, his overall season line is a well rounded .290/.347/.478. The Blue Jays may well have found their long term answer at second base, the problem is, at just 19 years old, Lopes is at least a few years away.

Honorable mention: Marcus Knecht (DUN)

June 6, 2010; Miami, FL, USA; Texas A

On August 25th, 2011, I wrote an article entitled “Introducing John Stilson, Pick #108 in the 2011 Draft“. I still don’t believe you’ll find one article out there that will tell you any more than that about the man that seems to be getting very close to being “next in line” for a Jays promotion. In fact, if you simply type “John Stilson” into Google, you don’t see his Texas A&M page, his draft page from MLB.com, or a Baseball America article about him. You get the article linked above! Therefore, I encourage you to read through it and check out all linked articles within that piece if you’re interested in getting to know this great Jays prospect as much as possible.

I came away very impressed with what the Jays got with that pick and was ecstatic that they’d take that big a risk to get an upside arm (due to the injury risk). Late in that article, I stated the following:

“Between him and Sam Dyson, the Jays will have some fast-moving pen prospects moving through the system, even if both carry health questions with them.” (more…)

1. RF Moises Sierra (LAS): 25 AB, .560/.577/1.160 (1.737 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 1/2 BB/K

Mar 4, 2012; Bradenton, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Moises Sierra (74) catches a fly ball hit by Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Jake Fox (not pictured) during the sixth inning at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

A couple of weeks ago, Travis d’Arnaud went on a tear, batting .500 in 20 at-bats, and smashing four home runs. At the time, I said -– with confidence –- that no other Blue Jays player would have a better week over the rest of the season. Well, it took Moises Sierra only 14 days to make me look like an idiot, as his 1.737 OPS this week bested d’Arnaud’s 1.724 OPS, taking over the title of most dominant performance of the year. He had multiple hits in five of his six games played, but the driving force behind his number one ranking was his June 1st performance against Tuscon. Sierra went 3-for-5, with each hit going for a home run, and tallying five RBI. Just for good measure, on the very next day, he went 4-for-4 with another two extra base hits (1 double, 1 home run). The performance has drawn the attention of the front office, with Alex Anthopolous stating in a recent interview that Sierra could be the next call-up from Las Vegas, even ahead of the aforementioned Vlad the Impaler.

2. 3B Yan Gomes (LAS): 27 AB, .370/.393/.852 (1.245 OPS), 7 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 1/6 BB/K

Gomes got a cup of coffee with the major league club earlier this month, and more than held his own. The .227 batting average wasn’t exactly beautiful, but he swung the bat with authority, and didn’t look overmatched with big league pitch sequencing — all while he was playing a defensive position he was new to (third base), on a surface he’d never played on (field turf). Not a bad debut. Since his demotion, he’s picked up where he left off, and comes in as the second hottest prospect in the system. Gomes had 10 hits this week, and an incredible nine of them went for extra bases –- good for a crazy 482 ISO. Along with Sierra, Gomes should be in contention for the call-up when the Blue Jays finally conclude their ridiculous 8 man bullpen experiment, as his defensive versatility (3B, 1B, C) and offensive spark is something the team desperately needs right now.

3. CF Anthony Gose (LAS): 32 AB, .375/.429/.531 (.960 OPS), 1 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4 SB, 3/9 BB/K

Anthony Gose has become a bit of a mainstay on the prospect hot sheet, as after a horrible April he got his season on track in a big way during the month of May. The .364/.431/.554 batting line is impressive enough, but it’s even better when you look at how he got there. Gose struck out only 23 times in 29 May games, after striking out 33 times in 24 April games. For someone with legitimate contact concerns, that’s an excellent sign. The power still hasn’t shown up, as after slugging 16 bombs for New Hampshire in 2011, Gose is on pace for only seven this season. That would be less shocking if he were in the International League, but the Pacific Coast League is very conducive to power, as his 51s teammates have regularly shown. Regardless, the improvements with the bat far outweigh any decrease in power, and while a promotion before September doesn’t appear to be in the cards, Gose is making himself a strong case for a starting spot in Toronto’s 2013 Opening Day outfield.

4. RHP John Stilson (DUN): 2-0, 10 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Toronto selected Stilson in the third round of the 2011 draft, a first round talent who fell because of a significant shoulder injury. He’s come back from that injury strong, and is having a very nice professional debut. Stilson hasn’t been overpowering, but for someone recovering from a significant injury after bouncing between the rotation and bullpen in college, his results are more than acceptable. His success this week can actually be traced back as far as mid-May, as Stilson has now pitched five innings in four consecutive games. Across those 20 innings he’s allowed only 22 base runners and 7 earned runs while striking out 18. I still fear for his long term health as long as he’s in the rotation, and feel he’s better –- and more valuable –- in the bullpen. I understand the reason he’s starting though, as in 2012 alone he’ll pitch two or three seasons worth of relief innings, and for pitcher development, innings and building arm strength are very important.

5. C Travis d’Arnaud (LAS): 26 AB, .346/.393/.538 (.931 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 2/5 BB/K

Travis d’Arnaud’s two week reign as the system’s hottest prospect is over, but he still finds a spot on the list, coming in at number five. He has continued to hit the ball extremely well, but he wasn’t going to hit four home runs per week forever. That type of production is unsustainable. With Jesus Montero, Yasmani Grandal and Devin Mesoraco all playing in the major leagues, d’Arnaud is the best catching prospect still in the minors. It’s not close, either. If d’Arnaud were on nearly any other team, he would have usurped the starting catcher by now, but Toronto has held steadfast with J.P. Arencibia. Arencibia’s bat hasn’t taken the step forward many had hoped –- particularly in the area of plate discipline –- but his work with the young pitchers and within the clubhouse isn’t something that can be brushed aside. d’Arnaud has reportedly been taking reps at first base recently, and while that won’t be a long term move, it could give the team the short term flexibility to see how d’Arnaud’s bat plays in Toronto without forcing either catcher into a bench role.

Honorable mention: Adeiny Hechavarria (LAS), Casey Lawrence (DUN)

So after digesting the wealth of Jays knowledge now at the stadium, I made it a priority to talk to LaCava after Tuesday’s game to see if he would be willing to answer a few questions before the end of my trip. I was actually taken aback at how nice and accommodating he was, as he was willing to answer questions right then and there. We made small talk and briefly discussed Rollins, who LaCava said conceals the ball while working at a quick pace, and Anthony DeSclafani, who he called “another Blue Jays special” before bringing up Shaun Marcum.

I had left my recorder up in the press box, though, so after discussing a few other tidbits, I was going to have to connect with LaCava later in the trip for the interview instead, which turned out to be just prior to Thursday’s game. Considering the amount of front office staff in attendance, not to mention that Lugnuts manager John Tamargo Jr. was absent for the first two games of the week, LaCava was, as expected, very, very busy on this trip with things to do and so many people to talk to. I’d like to sincerely thank Mr. LaCava for giving me the time of day amid his hectic schedule not just once but twice, and for being so gracious in his responses as well.

I really enjoyed hearing his insight to the questions below, and I hope you do as well. My questions are in bold, with LaCava’s answers in plain text.

Sticking with Lansing first-off, a guy like Justin Nicolino, obviously he has the plus change and a good curveball too. Fastball velocity, though, is it an issue at all? Or do you see him adding a couple of ticks to it?

“Well, I think there’s more in there. He’s just turned 20, or he’s turning 20, and physically there’s still some growth, if you look at him he’s got more future growth I think. Already he’ll show you 92, he doesn’t pitch at 92, but his velocity’s creeping up since he signed, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a little bit more fastball. Not that he needs it, because honestly with the angle that he pitches at, the changeup, and the improving curveball, we think he’s got the weapons to be one heck of a starting pitcher in the big leagues right now, even if he doesn’t get more velocity.

Speaking of weapons, Aaron Sanchez. In terms of that changeup, that third pitch, how’s it coming along?

“We think it’s going to be the third plus pitch that he has. Fastball velocity it keeps getting better, and movement, and angle, and command of it just continues to get better and better. His breaking ball is an out pitch, it’s a knockout curveball, and his changeup is, at times, plus also. So that’s three out pitches we think, and he’s just 19.

It’s pretty easy to get excited about him.

“Oh yeah, yeah. We think he’s got a great future.”

Keeping with the Lansing starters, how did the whole piggybacking concept come to fruition this season?

“Well piggybacking’s been done in the past in other organizations, especially with younger pitchers. It’s a way to get a five-month season out of pitchers who normally, if you just let them go full go, would run out of innings by, at the latest, mid-July. We’re trying to get them into a mindset of going five months which is a full minor league season — ultimately we want them to go six months — and to protect them during their teenage years where they’re being asked to do more and they’re still growing, they’re still physically growing. It’s our way of making sure we do the right things by them from a health standpoint.”

Going all the way down the ladder to the Gulf Coast League, a guy like Griffin Murphy, the top prep left-hander of the 2010 draft, he’s not getting talked about much with guys like Nicolino and Daniel Norris in the system right now. How’s he coming along?

“I haven’t seen him since spring training, but in the spring it looked like there had been some improvement, the velocity was starting to get back into that 90 range. Right now it’s just more of an opportunity and waiting. The guys that we wanted to come here we deemed were more ready for this level, and we haven’t really sat down and done the short-season rosters yet, but I’m hopeful that he’s going to, obviously, be a part of one of those teams.”

Jacob Anderson and Dwight Smith Jr., they get lumped together a lot. Can you expand a bit on each player individually?

“Well they’re very different. I mean Jacob is 6’5″ and a longer muscle guy, and Smitty is more of a compact, stronger-type build. Anderson’s got future physical development, and Smith does too, but not as much projection on the body. So physically, there are big differences. Smith we feel is going to be able to play center field, so we’re going to have him do that, and Anderson will be on a corner, and it looks like it’s going to be right field. So he’s got enough for a right field arm.”

A guy like Adonys Cardona, there’s a ton in there, he’s just starting to get noticed it seems. Do you think that’s because he’s an international signing and because of his age?

“Yeah, he’s that much younger, he’s two years younger than these guys here [in Lansing]. He’s 18, and these guys are turning 20 at some point, 19/20. He’d be a junior at high school here in the States. He’s just a little under the radar but he’s got just great potential. He’s got an extremely quick arm, a very, very athletic body that’s projectable as well. He’s got a chance to throw really hard some day. He already, as a 17-year-old, was throwing 94 and even 95, so we think he’s got a really bright future as well.”

With rookie league numbers, the consensus is to not read too much into them and take them with a grain of salt. At what point or level, if at all, do the Blue Jays pay attention to a player’s statistics?

“I think we certainly look at the numbers in the low levels too, but obviously the further away from the major leagues, the less the numbers mean. You can go back to amateur baseball, for instance, you go to a high school game, and we don’t really know how to evaluate numbers in high school baseball. But certainly at the major league level, at the other end of the spectrum, it is what it is: a guy’s numbers are his numbers, and you just work backwards. The further away from the major leagues, the harder the numbers are to predict in future performance, but you can still gather information. I think we’re probably more concerned by bad numbers than we are impressed with good numbers.”

With the draft coming next month, how do you feel about it both talent-wise and having five selections in the first 60 picks?

“Well Andrew Tinnish, our scouting director, is the point man on the draft. Alex, myself and Perry Minasian, our pro scouting director, have seen some players from the draft for Andrew, but I don’t really have the pulse on it like I would like to, to really comment on the strength of it and things like that.”

I was talking to C.J. Ebarb about John Stilson, and he said that Stilson wants to almost cut your throat out when he’s on the mound because he’s just that fierce. He’s starting right now in Dunedin, is that the long-term plan or vision for him, to give it his all as a starter?

“With all the kid pitchers we get, we’d like to at least explore starting just to see, because starters are so much more valuable than relievers. If you can get 200 innings as opposed to 60, those 200-inning guys are so hard to find, so you want to make sure that you explore that. We think Stilson has the weapons to start, and we’re going to give him a chance. We’re going this year and we’re going to evaluate him periodically, but so far so good.”

I heard Michael Crouse had a very good spring. I was only down there for a week, but there were whispers that he had a great spring overall. Can you give an update on him?

“I haven’t seen him yet, in fact going there next, but obviously Michael is a talented kid. It’s only been six weeks down there so it’s really hard to put a lot of stock into such a small sample, but obviously I look forward to seeing him when I get there. He had such a good year here, and we expect him to do the same down there.”

To me, he just screams upside.

“Yeah, he’s a toolsy, very talented kid. He can run, he can throw, he’s got power, and he’s getting better each day, he’s rapidly improving. From the day he signed to this point, he’s come a long way.”

Shifting up to Vegas, Yan Gomes has started to play third base. Has he boosted his stock, especially given his versatility?

“Yeah he definitely has. He’s put himself on the map, on the radar so to speak. We’ve been blessed to have all this catching with J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, [A.J.] Jimenez, [Carlos] Perez, and you’ll hear about [Santiago] Nessy, who was a kid in the Gulf Coast League last year. Yan has just kind of flown under the radar but he had a really nice spring training, a great camp, and we felt like he deserved to go to Triple-A and that he earned the opportunity to go to Triple-A. But with Travis there we didn’t know how to get him the playing time, and he had played a little bit of corner infield in the past, so we felt that we could have him do that and get more at-bats in, and then when Travis has a day off he gets some catching as well. So it was two-fold, one to increase his versatility, and the other to get him more playing time in Triple-A.”

Is the hitting environment in Las Vegas frustrating from a developmental perspective when it comes to evaluating a player’s progress?

“Ideally you’d like it to be more of a fairer environment, for both hitters and pitchers. In this case it’s tough on our pitchers and a little easier on our pitchers, but there are ways to normalize the numbers. Our guys up in the office, [Baseball Information Analyst] Joe Sheehan and [Assistant General Manager] Jay Sartori, they’re always trying to, I guess, translate what happens in Vegas and normalize the numbers. They only play half their games there, so we do get the benefit of seeing them in other places. It certainly favors the hitters there, there’s no question about that, but the league’s been out there forever and Vegas has been a minor league affiliate for a long, long time, and the cream of the crop will come to the top, right?”

Also, after the interview and while sharing a quick elevator ride, Santiago Nessy was brought up again (I forget how). I asked about some of the whispers that the young catcher could eventually move out from behind the plate given his body type, and LaCava quickly dismissed that, stressing that Nessy’s future is behind the plate and that “he’s not going anywhere”.

- JM

Highlights include a pair of wins in Las Vegas, a walk-off win in Dunedin and good pitching, as usual, from Lansing.

 Wins/Losses: 12-16 | Streak: W2 | 3rd in PCL Pacific South division (9.0 GB)

May 2: Las Vegas 51s 12, Reno Aces 4 – WP: Chavez (4-1, 2.38)

After already being ahead by three runs and scoring five more for good measure in the top of the ninth inning, the 51s topped Reno 12-4 on Wednesday night in the third game of a four-game set.

Hitting:

Outside of the 15 runs that the 51s’ offense scored on April 28, the 12 they put up against Reno was their biggest offensive showing in three weeks.

Left fielder Danny Perales exploded for a season-high four hits and four RBI, including his first home run of the season in the second inning. Cleanup hitter Moises Sierra finished 3-for-5 with three singles, a walk and an RBI, Travis d’Arnaud went 1-for-5 with a double and a walk, Yan Gomes hit a pair of singles and Ricardo Nanita hit a bases-clearing, three-run double in the ninth.

After drawing a pair of walks Tuesday night, Anthony Gose, hitting second behind Adeiny Hechavarria, drew three walks and went 1-for-2. Gose managed to rack up three RBI as well after hitting a sacrifice fly in the fourth, a RBI single in the sixth (advancing to second on the throw and promptly stealing third, his ninth bag of the year) and drawing a bases-loaded walk in the seventh.

Pitching:

51s starter Jesse Chavez was effective yet again as he limited Reno’s offense to just one earned run on three hits in 5 1/3 innings with two walks and six strikeouts to earn the win.

Though he pitched out of the bullpen for the Jays in spring training and has been a reliever for almost his entire professional career, Chavez has quietly been putting together a solid campaign as a starter for Las Vegas and could very well be on the radar to be called up to make a spot start for the Jays in the event of an injury. The California native how has a rotation-best 2.38 ERA in six starts with 21 hits and 36 strikeouts in 34 innings. The right-hander has allowed one earned run or less in each of his last three starts, and opposing hitters have managed a mere .175 average off of him so far this year.

Robert Coello gave up three earned runs on three hits with two walks while recording just two outs in relief, but Ryota Igarashi continued to impress, this time with three strikeouts in 1 2/3 scoreless innings. Chad Beck notched his second save of the season despite issuing three walks.

May 3: Las Vegas 51s 5, Reno Aces 4 – WP: Korecky (1-0, 3.50) S: Loup (1)

After scoring four runs in the first, the 51s were able to curb a late Reno rally at three to squeak away with the 5-4 victory and series win on Thursday night.

Hitting:

With some help from a throwing error from Aces third baseman Taylor Harbin, the 51s enjoyed a four-run first inning after hitting four singles and drawing a walk.

With his RBI single with the bases loaded that inning, Yan Gomes extended his hitting streak to six games. He’s hit safely in nine of his last 10 games including five multi-hit contests, and hit .385 with eight extra-base hits and a 1.147 OPS over that span. After playing third base on Tuesday and first base on Wednesday, Gomes returned behind the plate to his most familiar position at catcher for his third position in three days, and his versatility, combined with offensive performance, has to be opening eyes down in Las Vegas.

All seven of Las Vegas’ hits were singles on this unspectacular offensive night, with second baseman Ruben Gotay having the best game with a single, two RBI, a walk and two stolen bases.

Pitching:

The Blue Jays called up Joel Carreno a few days ago and since it was his night to pitch on, 51s reliever Andrew Carpenter opened the contest instead and tossed two scoreless innings. Bill Murphy allowed one earned run on four hits in three innings, Bobby Korecky earned the win after allowing no runs in two innings, and Chad Beck earned his third save of the season with a perfect ninth.

Left-handed reliever Evan Crawford, who was optioned by the Blue Jays to Triple-A earlier this week, allowed three earned runs on three hits with two walks in two thirds of an inning in his first appearance with the 51s.

Wins/Losses: 11-15 | Streak: L2 | 5th in EAS Eastern division (7.0 GB)

May 2: Reading Phillies 4, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 2 – LP: Wright (0-1, 3.18)

After scoring a pair of runs early, the Fisher Cats gave up four unanswered runs as they fell to Reading 4-2 on Wednesday night.

Hitting:

It was a quiet night for New Hampshire’s bats, as their six hits were split evenly across six different hitters. Justin Jackson plated both runs with his triple in the second inning, while catcher A.J. Jimenez hit his third double of the season. Left fielder Brad McElroy went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts, but he saved a run in the top of the ninth with an outfield assist on a throw to the plate.

Pitching:

Fisher Cats starter Ryan Tepera lasted only three innings and issued three walks, but allowed only a pair of earned runs on four hits. Reliever Matt Wright allowed one unearned run in two solid innings of work, but was handed the tough-luck loss after Reading center fielder reached base on a throwing error, stole second, and scored the go-ahead run on a double.

Right-hander Fernando Hernandez allowed one hit and struck out two in a pair of scoreless innings, while Danny Farquhar gave up one earned on three hits in 1 2/3 innings.

Sidearm left-hander Aaron Loup continues to thrive in his somewhat lefty specialist role, as he recorded one out in the eighth and now has not allowed a run in 13 1/3 innings this season thanks to the movement on his fastball and curveball.

May 3: Reading Phillies 8, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6 – LP: Uviedo, 1-1, 2.84)

After taking a 5-0 lead by the end of the third inning, the Fisher Cats’ bullpen gave up the go-ahead runs in a late rally from Phillies as New Hampshire fell to Reading 8-6 on Thursday night for their third loss in the four-game series.

Hitting:

The Fisher Cats got things started right away in the first, when Ryan Goins led off with a single and Jonathan Diaz walked. First baseman Mike McDade promptly knocked in the first run with a single, before Brian Van Kirk chipped in a RBI single of his own later in the frame to put New Hampshire up 2-0.

The Fisher Cats extended their lead in the third inning, when Diaz reached base after being hit by a pitch and McDade followed that up with a two-run homer to right field, his second of the season. After Mark Sobolewski reached on an error and stole second, Van Kirk, who finished 3-for-4, cashed him in with a double for his second RBI of the game.

Pitching:

Making his third Double-A start, right-hander Casey Lawrence finished two outs shy of a quality start after he was pulled in the sixth following a leadoff single and a fly out. Matt Daly came on in relief and quickly allowed a pair of singles around a wild pitch that let Lawrence’s runner score. Overall, Lawrence was charged with three earned runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings with no walks and three strikeouts.

Daly also walked a batter and was charged with an earned run of his own, so he was pulled in favor of Aaron Loup after failing to record an out. Loup got his fourth hold of the year with a scoreless inning of work, before Clint Everts allowed his first run of the season and Ronald Uviedo allowed three runs (two earned) late in the game to get tagged with the loss.

Wins/Losses: 20-7 | Streak: W2 | 1st in FSL North division (6.0 GM lead)

May 2: Dunedin Blue Jays 6, Clearwater Threshers 4 – WP: Barnes (1-0, 2.25)

After tying the game with a two-run seventh inning, the D-Jays scored two more in the bottom of the ninth to walk off with the 6-4 victory over Lakeland on Wednesday night at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium.

Hitting:

Ryan Schimpf was the hero in this game, twice! The 24-year-old smacked a two-out, two-run home run in the bottom of the seventh to tie the game, and then with one out and a runner on, smacked his second two-run homer of the game to right field that put the Jays ahead to walk off with the win. Schimpf has hit three home runs in his last five games and 10 of his 18 hits this season have been for extra bases, so the 5-foot-9, 181-pound second baseman has been showcasing some unexpected power as of late.

Kevin Nolan was the only other Dunedin Jay to record a multi-hit game, hitting two singles with a walk and a RBI.

Pitching:

Dunedin starter John Stilson was capped at three innings in a strong performance, allowing one earned run on three hits with one walk and three strikeouts. His only mistake came in the third inning when he surrendered a two-out solo home run to Lakeland third baseman Nick Castellanos, who currently leads the ALL of the minor leagues with a .426 batting average. The homer was the first one off Stilson this season, and the right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his six starts.

May 3: Dunedin Blue Jays 5, Lakeland Flying Tigers 3 – WP: Nolin (4-0, 2.76) S: Barnes (10)

After giving up a run in each of the first three frames, the D-Jays were able to hold Lakeland off the scoreboard for the final six innings to hang on for a 5-3 on Thursday night.

Hitting:

Dunedin’s offense was out-hit 14-7, with catcher Jack Murphy going 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBI. Michael Crouse roped a two-run double, Marcus Knecht went 2-for-4 with a double, and Kevin Nolan hit a double of his own while also stealing his fourth base of the season. Both Knecht’s and Nolan’s doubles were their eighth on the year.

Pitching:

Going up against Lakeland starter and Detroit Tigers top prospect Jacob Turner, Sean Nolin put together another solid outing for Dunedin and improved to 4-0 on the season. He gave up three runs (two earned) on nine hits in five innings, with four strikeouts and one walk.

Dayton Marze allowed two strikeouts and struck out one in 1 1/3 scoreless innings, Boomer Potts walked the only batter he faced, and Scott Gracey collected three strikeouts in 1 2/3 innings. Danny Barnes, one of my personal favorites, allowed two hits in a scoreless ninth to earn his 10th save of the season.

Wins/Losses: 19-8 | Streak: L1 | 1st in MID Eastern division (3.0 GM lead)

May 2: Great Lakes Loons 7, Lansing Lugnuts 1 – LP: DeSclafani (2-1, 3.32)

Held in check by Great Lakes starter Jarrett Martin, the Lugnuts couldn’t get anything going offensively and ultimately fell to the Loons 7-1 on Wednesday night.

Hitting:

The Lugnuts managed only one run on five hits, though three were of the extra base variety. Andy Burns and Kevin Pillar each slapped doubles, while Kenny Wilson hit his second home run of the season in the ninth inning to plate the only run of the game for Lansing and break the shutout.

Pitching:

Throwing a season-high four innings, Lugnuts starter Anthony DeSclafani ran into trouble early when he gave up a leadoff single, threw a wild pitch, and committed a throwing error on a grounder to put runners on the corners with nobody out. Another single, error (from Burns), and double followed that sequence, putting Great Lakes up 2-0 in the process. A ground out and double play swiftly ended the inning, but without allowing another run to score to put the Lugnuts in a 3-0 hole early.

Though DeSclafani had 1-2-3 innings in the second and fourth, he ran into more trouble in the third, when a single and double scored another run. A passed ball from catcher Carlos Perez and a walk put runners on the corners once again, but DeSclafani induced a pop out to end the threat, finishing the night having allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits with one walk and one strikeout. It was the third time this season that DeSclafani had been scored on in an outing.

Noah Syndergaard came on in relief and was close to recording another dominant, run-free outing. After giving up a leadoff single in the fifth, Syndergaard struck out the side swinging before stranding a runner in a scoreless sixth. Then, after retiring the first two batters he faced in the seventh, Syndergaard got the next batter to pop up into foul territory along first base, but Pillar ended up dropping the ball and the inning continued.

That proved to be costly, as Syndergaard served up a two-run home run followed by a single and double that scored three runs in total. After getting his fifth swinging strikeout of the night to end the inning, Syndergaard finished the night having allowed three runs (all unearned) on five hits with one walk, five strikeouts and a home run.

May 3: Lansing Lugnuts 6, Great Lakes Loons 5 – WP: Champlin (2-1, 3.71) S: Meyer (10)

In a wild, back-and-forth affair that saw the lead change four times and neither team lead by more than one run, the Lugnuts were able to come out on top with the 6-5 victory over Great Lakes on Thursday night.

Hitting:

Hitting second in the order for only the second time this season, left fielder Chris Hawkins paced the Lugnuts offense with a 3-for-5 showing that included a double and a RBI. The double was the Lugnuts only extra-base hit, but first baseman K.C. Hobson chipped in with a RBI single and Carlos Perez also recorded a RBI despite going 0-for-4.

The Lugnuts continued to be active on the base paths, as second baseman Jonathon Berti swiped two bags to bring his season total to 10, right fielder Kevin Pillar stole his ninth bag of the year, and Hawkins also chipped in with a theft, his fourth of the season. Two of the four bags that the three Lugnuts combined to steal were thefts of third base.

Pitching:

Left-handed Lugnuts starter David Rollins didn’t seem to have his best stuff but still put together a good outing. Although he gave up a season-high three runs, only two were earned and he allowed just three hits in 3 2/3 innings. Keeping up with his impressive strikeout totals, the Texas native fanned five, bringing him to 31 in 27 innings so far this season (10.3 K/9).

Kramer Champlin earned the win after allowing a pair of earned runs on three hits and a walk in 2 1/3 innings, while lefty Tyler Ybarra earned his third hold of the season after getting four strikeouts in two strong innings. Stud closer Ajay Meyer struck out the side around a base hit in a scoreless ninth to earn his Midwest League-leading 10^th save.

-JM

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There has been a shift in developmental philosophy since Alex Anthopolous took over the decision making responsibilities, and without a doubt the farm is better for it. While the previous regime focused on polished college pitchers, Anthopolous has instead turned his eyes towards the high school ranks, where above everything else, projection is the name of the game. The risks are far greater -– Blue Jays fans may forever remember the day Tyler Beede chose Vanderbilt over Toronto’s multi-million dollar offer –- but in only two years under this new philosophy, the rewards are already coming to fruition. Unsurprisingly, the top five fastballs in the system all belong to pitchers drafted in the last two years.

The fastballs will be ranked on three qualities -– velocity, movement, and command –- with both present and potential ratings given in the parentheses.

Photograph provided by W. Sanders Photography - Wes Sanders

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (Plus present, plus-plus potential)

The number one fastball in the system resides in the arm of Noah Syndergaard, a fact that has become undisputable at this point. In reality, Syndergaard throws two different types of fastballs –- a four and two seamer –- with a near even split in frequency thrown. At 6’5” and 200 lbs, generating velocity is not a problem. The four-seam fastball sits at 94-95 mph, rarely falling below 93 mph and regularly touching 97-98 mph. The two-seam fastball is a few miles per hour slower, but has far better movement, showing tremendous arm-side run. Syndergaard’s command of the pitch is just average at this point, and is the only aspect holding the pitch back from plus-plus status. However, at just 19 years of age, there’s plenty of time for him to get a better feel for location and unlock the vast potential of the pitch.

2. RHP Aaron Sanchez (Fringe plus present, fringe plus-plus potential)

Sanchez narrowly beat out Daniel Norris for the second best fastball in the system, but that has as much to do with the lack of professional data on Norris as it does the abilities of Sanchez. After being drafted as the epitome of projectability, Sanchez has already begun to fill out his frame, and the results are encouraging. Now up to 190 pounds, the fastball is sitting in the low 90’s and touching 95 mph consistently. With another 10 to 20 pounds of muscle on his frame –- on which there is ample room to grow –- those numbers could spike to sitting 93-95 mph and touching 97 mph. The pitch has natural run and sink, giving him excellent groundball tendencies. Sanchez’ biggest fault is his control – or lack thereof. He has arguably the worst command out of all Toronto’s high upside arms, and will need to find consistency with his mechanics for the pitch to fully develop.

3. LHP Daniel Norris (Fringe plus present, plus-plus potential)

As previously mentioned, there’s no professional data on Norris, and furthermore, scouting reports on the young lefty in his high school days depicted a lot of inconsistency. The biggest culprit may be the mechanics of his delivery, as they’re unnecessarily complicated and difficult to repeat. Velocity and command suffered the most from the inconsistent mechanics. On his good days, Norris has excellent fastball command and sits 92-95 mph, touching the high 90’s. On his bad days, however, he was more of a 90-92 mph pitcher who peaked at 94 mph. That’s impressive for any pitcher, even more so when the velocity is coming from a left hander. Movement is big part of Norris’ fastball, as he has heavy run and sink on the pitch. With improved mechanics, Norris could challenge Syndergaard for the best fastball in the system one year from now.

4. RHP John Stilson (Plus present, fringe plus-plus potential)

You might wonder why Stilson’s fastball ranks only fourth in the system with such impressive ratings for both present and potential. There are two reasons. The first: Stilson is a bullpen arm. In a relief role, pitchers are able to empty the tank and give max effort on every pitch, boosting the velocity a notch or two. This effect has been observed with Stilson, as he served as both a starter and a closer with his college team, Texas A&M. In the rotation, Stilson sat 92-95 mph. In the bullpen, it was upper 90’s. The second reason is his injury history, and the possibility he may never regain his stuff. Stilson’s college career was cut short by a serious shoulder injury, and almost a year later he’s still not 100% recovered. He has above average command with some nice late bite, which when combined with the relief velocity gives the pitch fringe plus-plus potential, health permitting.

5. LHP Justin Nicolino (Above average present, plus potential)

Nicolino has the worst present velocity on the list, sitting only 89-92 mph and touching 94 mph. On the other hand, he has excellent movement on the fastball, and easily the best command of the group. Also working in Nicolino’s favor is his projectability. Those velocity readings were taken during the 2011 season in which he weighed in the 160-170 pound range. He appears significantly stronger this spring, which could result in a velocity spike as soon as this season. As he continues to grow and mature –- he’s still only 20 years old -– Nicolino could see his fastball begin to sit in the 91-94 mph range and touch 96 mph, which is at least a plus calibre pitch from the left side.

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Below is everything I could gather about the Jays 108th pick, John Stilson.

Introducing Pick #108: John Jacob Stilson (more…)