Jeff Mathis seems to be the only one guaranteed to be on the team as he signed a 2 year extension during the season. The Bluejays could also keep Arencibia and D’arnaud on the team to because D’arnaud can also play 1st base. The Bluejays could rotate the DH spot with Edwin Encarnacion, Arencibia, and D’arnaud. When EE plays first, D’arnaud or Arencibia would DH depending on who catches that day. When EE plays DH, D’arnaud would play 1st and Arencibia would catch.

If the Bluejays need to pinch run for whoever is catching that day they would have the luxury of a 3rd catcher in Jeff Mathis replacing them defensively instead of having to worry about moving players around to other positions to accommodate the pinch running. If Arencibia is catching and gets pinch run for while D’arnaud is playing 1st, D’arnaud could just take over as catcher and one of the bench players could take over at 1st. That’s a lot of versatility for one team to have.

Another great thing about the Bluejays having so much depth at one position is that one of their catchers could be used as trade bait.

Jeff Mathis seems to be the only guaranteed catcher to be on the team not only because of his contract but because back up catchers don’t have a lot of trade value. It is a possibility the Bluejays could use him as a “throw in” in a trade but realistically it’s hard to see any team not agreeing to a trade because the Bluejays refused to include Mathis.

J.P. Arencibia has 2 years of big league experience and despite low batting averages in both seasons he has shown the ability to hit for power in the big leagues with 23 home runs in his rookie season and 18 home runs in just 102 games in 2012. His low on base percentage and poor defensive skills could scare teams and lower his trade value though. When Arencibia has weeks where he is going well with the bat he can really carry a team which is more than you can say about most catchers.

Travis D’arnaud has no big league experience but he is considered the top catching prospect in all of baseball. As mentioned earlier he can also play 1st base. D’arnaud is also projected to be a much better player than J.P. Arencibia both offensively and defensively so believe it or not the Bluejays might actually be able to get more for him than Arencibia.

Whatever choice the Bluejays make with their catching situation whether it’s having versatility with three catchers or the traditional two they’re set up well at that position no matter what.

Jeff Mathis plays against the Orioles on April 24th (Keith Allison, Flickriver.com)

Once you pick your jaw up off the floor and finish scratching your head in a puzzled fashion, the Jeff Mathis extension does, sort of, make a lot of sense. If you somehow hadn’t heard, the Blue Jays have signed the veteran catcher to a two year extension covering 2013 and 2014, in which he’ll earn 1.5 million per year. The deal also includes a club option for 2015, valued at 1.5 million as well.

While Mathis hit .276/.339/.444 (.783 OPS) across parts of eight minor league seasons, it’s become resoundingly clear that the major league version of the catcher is a significantly worse hitter than that. In his 1507 major league plate appearances spanning eight years, he’s hit just .196/.256/.312 (.568 OPS). That’s historically bad, and a significant enough sample size that you can say, with the utmost confidence, he is who we thought he was. Mathis is actually having his best offensive season to date here in 2012, as his 76 wRC+ and .286 wOBA represent career highs. Both are still significantly below league average, which indicates just how bad he is at the plate.

Even so, the team didn’t acquire Mathis for his bat, they desired his ability to play defense and handle a pitching staff. According to a study done in 2011 by Mike Fast, formerly of Baseball Prospectus, Mathis has been above average at framing pitches every year from 2007 through 2011. Framing pitches, in short, is the catcher’s ability to trick an umpire into calling a ball a strike through, among other things, keeping a stiff wrist and subtly pulling your glove closer to the zone as you catch the ball. In total, he saved 19 runs across the five years, and when considering playing time, it came out as 7 runs saved per 120 games. Both figures are above average, but well behind the “elite” defensive catchers such as Jose Molina, who’s saved 73 total runs and 35 per 120 games over that timeframe.

His arm strength is above average, but throughout his career he’s been just league average at catching potential base stealers. Mathis has been significantly better this season, as with a 39% caught stealing rate he’s well above the league average of 26%. The reason behind this drastic change is difficult to surmise. A quick look at J.P. Arencibia’s defensive numbers show a similar trend, so it’s possible the abundance of left handed starters on the staff – who can inherently hold runners closer to first – has been the cause. Perhaps it’s a new technique that bench coach Don Wakamatsu taught the two catchers, but either way, history suggests he’s more of an average thrower than anything spectacular.

While with Los Angeles, Mathis learned under baseball guru Mike Scoscia. The Angels skipper spent 13 years in the major leagues, and was known for his defensive prowess behind the plate. As such, he did his best to impress his knowledge onto the catchers on his roster, and gave favor to those who showed an ability to handle a staff. Scoscia obviously saw that trait in Mathis, as year after year he stole plate appearances from the far superior player in Mike Napoli. As you can see in the table below, there was a method to his madness, as Mathis’ catcher ERA has been better than the team ERA in each of the six seasons he’s seen significant playing time. At this volume of innings, it’s not just a coincidence or statistical anomaly. I don’t know exactly what it means, but it’s definitely something.

The catcher vs team ERA of Jeff Mathis over his professional career (source: ESPN)

In summary, Mathis is a well below average hitter, an average thrower, and a well above average receiver. That’s not necessarily someone you want to pencil into the lineup for 120 games every year, but it’s the ideal skill set for a backup catcher, which is the role the Blue Jays have set in place for Mathis. It’s a huge positive for Toronto as well, as regardless of who the team decides upon for their starting catcher in 2013, they’ll be young, and the knowledge Mathis can pass on from the Scoscia tree of learning over the next two years has value beyond his personal statistics. Despite his offensive short comings, 1.5 million per year seems perfectly fair for both sides.

The question we can now ask is, who will be the Blue Jays starting catcher next season? It was a long shot to begin with, but the Mathis extension all but guarantees that J.P. Arencibia and Travis d’Arnaud will never be sitting in a major league dugout together in months not named September. d’Arnaud’s bat would be wasted at first base, while Arencibia simply doesn’t have enough contact in his swing to be acceptable at a non-catcher position. The Blue Jays number one prospect will be 24 on Opening Day, and with a .914 OPS in Double-A and .975 OPS in Triple-A over the past two years, it’s fair to say he has nothing left to learn down in the minor leagues. An offseason trade has become a necessity, as another year in Triple-A would do nothing for Travis’ trade value. Does the team go with the clubhouse leader and established starter in J.P. Arencibia, or with the top prospect with All-Star upside in Travis d’Arnaud?

Whoever the team decides to part with would likely be a piece in a trade for a starting pitcher. Miami, Pittsburgh, and the Cubs immediately come to mind as potential catcher-needy destinations, and each team has a starter the Blue Jays could and should be looking at, a pair of whom were caught in trade rumors at last month’s deadline. Josh Johnson (MIA) and Matt Garza (CHC) would each be excellent targets, particularly if the team sincerely wants to compete in 2013. James McDonald of Pittsburgh may be a more desirable target for the Blue Jays, however, as the right hander is under control through 2015. The Pirates may see him as a surplus, with former #1 overall pick Gerrit Cole not far away. As crazy as it sounds, this Jeff Mathis extension just made the offseason a whole lot more interesting.

March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop

All Jays fans would love to dream, as Jose Bautista has, of the Jays contending for a playoff spot in 2012. It’s definitely still viable, as no single team has pulled away from the pack enough to make it unlikely for any other team to catch that last playoff position in the American League. The Jays currently sit 3 GB of the last Wild Card spot. However, every team has to be honest with itself and wonder, out loud, if we are going to chase a playoff spot this season, what’s the best way to go about it?

For the Toronto Blue Jays of 2012, the answer is not definite, but is now leaning towards the “Go Young” way. The injuries the team has faced of late, along with the fact that it is faced with so many holes to fill in its lineup, really leaves little other choice.

Obviously, the main issues that have caused the Jays to slide back in the chase for a playoff spot are the multitude of injuries the team has been forced to deal with. The latest two injuries, Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie, really hurt the team most because they’re the first injuries to regular every day players, and they are so vital to the Jays scoring runs. (more…)

Francisco Cordero fires a pitch against the Rangers at Rogers Centre last night. (John E. Sokolowski-US PRESSWIRE)

Despite all of this, however, Cordero was one pitch away from a clean inning last night, when he pitched much better than the box score indicated.

To put the above comment into context, I am, by no means, Cordero’s biggest supporter, as I’m well aware of his diminshed average fastball velocity and the concerning drop in his strikeout rate from 12.2 whiffs per nine innings in 2007 compared to just 5.4 per nine in 2011. I wasn’t a fan of the Cordero signing in the first place, and back in January I wrote that I would have preferred the Jays give the eighth inning and high leverage situations to Casey Janssen, who had the best season of his career in 2011, instead.

But I’m cutting Cordero some slack for his performance last night which, for me, is bold. His line was this:

(BS, 2)(W, 1-1) 1.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K.

Rangers leadoff hitter Alberto Gonzalez took a first-pitch, 86 mph slider from Cordero for strike one before chopping a grounder foul to the third-base side on an identical 86 mph slider for strike two. Tossing the slider once again, this time a bit higher in the zone but on the outer half of the plate, Gonzalez weakly grounded out to a running Brett Lawrie for the first out of the inning.

Next up for the Rangers and pinch hitting for center fielder Craig Gentry was Adrian Beltre, who entered the game with a .321 average and .899 OPS, easily one of the best hitters on a loaded Rangers roster. After missing low and away with his first fastball of the inning, Cordero went back to his slider and dropped it on the inner half of the plate to even the count with a called first strike. Cordero found himself behind once again 2-1 after missing high with another fastball, but reared back to “blow” a 92 mph four seamer by Beltre on a foul tip for strike two. Then, in what I thought was his best pitch of the inning, Cordero struck out Beltre swinging on a fastball in the exact same location, on the outer half of the plate.

That brought up Ian Kinsler, Cordero’s final obstacle in closing out only his second perfect inning of the season. The Jays’ interim closer fed Kinsler a well-placed slider outside for a first-pitch strike — something that he’s only managed to do a career-low 48% of the time this season — before getting the call on a low and outside fastball to get ahead 0-2. The pitch was beautifully framed by Jays catcher Jeff Mathis (pictured below, post-frame), who stuck his glove to lift the pitch up ever so slightly.

Jeff Mathis frames a pitch from Francisco Cordero last night against the Rangers.

But after fouling off two good pitches and taking a low ball over the plate, Kinsler ripped a single to center to keep the inning alive in just a solid piece of hitting from the Rangers’ second baseman. All six of Cordero’s pitches in the at-bat were well placed, as five were in the strike zone and the other was a low-and-outside slider that Kinsler was coaxed into chasing.

We all know what happened next, though, as Elvis Andrus and Michael Young dropped bloop singles into right center to tie the game before Nelson Cruz grounded out to end the inning.

Cordero threw 16 of his 21 pitches (76%) for strikes, which was his highest percentage in any outing so far this season and against a Rangers squad that boasts the best offense in the Majors right now. Sure, Cordero is far from the same pitcher that he was in 2007 when he was with Milwaukee, but his performance last night was easily his most impressive of the year and there were some positives to take from it.

-JM

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Catching is an organizational strength for the Blue Jays right now. J.P. Arencibia is about to start his second full season as the starter at the major league level after a solid (though not spectacular) rookie season, Travis d’Arnaud is moving up to Triple-A with a good pedigree on both sides of the ball, and there’s A.J. Jimenez and Carlos Perez, among others, coming up behind them. Plus, Jeff Mathis is gainfully employed by the Blue Jays to back up Arencibia, for reasons that we have yet to determine.

In any case, it’s Arencibia and d’Arnaud that occupy the forefront of any backstop discussion for the Blue Jays. Arencibia is entrenched as the everyday catcher, and it’s assumed that d’Arnaud will promptly mash his way through Las Vegas and be knocking on the door at the Rogers Centre before too long, maybe even during this season. There’s already been some debate on the subject amongst Blue Jays fans: What should the Blue Jays do with these two talented young catchers?

As the spring is the time for idle speculation, let us present the options and, briefly, the case for each of them. I’ll start by putting a positive spin on it, and then look at it more realistically. I may or may not believe any of these things, but they’re all worth considering.

March 6, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher

1) Keep Arencibia

The Spin: Arencibia had a solid rookie season offensively with the Blue Jays. 23 HRs and 78 RBIs are nice stats from a catcher without a lot of experience at the major league level. A hand injury in June hampered his offensive output, and steadily decreasing offensive stats was an aftereffect of that injury. possibly showing some fatigue down the stretch as a young player getting used to the major-league grind. Also, Arencibia has a history of improving the second year at a level, which he did during his minor league career. His defense and handling of the pitching staff can only improve as well.

The Slam: The counting stats obscure a ghastly .282 on-base percentage. And though Arencibia admitted he should probably have taken some time off with the injuries, getting dinged up is a fact of life as a catcher. The major leagues are much more difficult than the minors, and  just because he improved drastically there doesn’t mean he will improve at a higher level.

March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Travis d

2) Keep d’Arnaud

The Spin: d’Arnaud is clearly the more talented of the two.  He had a monstrous split of .311/.371/.542 last year in Double-A New Hampshire last year. He was also named MVP of the Eastern League with the Fisher Cats, and voted the best defensive catcher as well (an oddity, given that Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense is alive and well). Given his history, he’s no more than a year away from being ready for a full-time job.

The Slam: He’s a prospect, and hasn’t proven anything at the major league level. The Blue Jays just broke in a rookie catcher last year, do they want to have to have the pitching staff break in another one so quickly? If the Blue Jays are ready to contend in 2013, will they want to make allowances for d’Arnaud’s adjustment to the bigs?

3) Keep both

The Spin: If d’Arnaud proves to be an asset at the major league level, why can’t we have both? They have the potential to be good offensive catchers. We could rotate them between catcher and first base/DH to keep them fresh. That way, neither get too tired, and we’re insulated from injury if one of them does go down.

The Slam: This is the kind of thing that works way better in theory than practice; in recent years, only Texas has really done this well (with Mike Napoli last year). That’s even more of a load for Toronto’s young catchers to either learn the first base position, or risk their catching skills not being sharp by playing another position or DHing so often. While teams start the year with a platoon, often, the hot hand ends up being played more, and in this case that would decrease the value of one of the two. Additionally, the offensive standards for first base and DH are much higher than catcher- if you think Adam Lind struggled, think of how Arencibia’s bat would play at that position. Yikes.

Thankfully, this is something the Blue Jays don’t need to decide today. We might see d’Arnaud if Arencibia gets injured (because otherwise, we’ll see Mathis, and no one with a functioning brain cell wants to see too much of THAT), so it’ll be what these two accomplish this year that determine the brain trust’s decision going forward. Given Anthopoulos’ love of trades, it’s more than likely he’ll turn one of them into another asset if he believes they’re both major-league capable, given the belief that the Blue Jays may contend in 2013.

I’ll throw it out there for comments, though. What do you all think? Is Arencibia the man going forward? Or will d’Arnaud unseat him?

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After Jose Molina signed with the Rays last week, it became clear that the Jays were going to have to acquire a new back up catcher through free agency or a trade. (more…)