In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The fourth part of the series will look at the centerfield position. Centerfielders are my absolute favorite prospects to discuss, because more than any other position, they’re required to be proficient both at the plate and in the field. To prevent a move to an outfield corner, the centerfielder is required to be an exceptional defender. As such, Baseball America ranks fielding as the highest tool priority for the position. Speed is important as well, ranking third, as while having great reads and lines on balls is crucial, a certain level of athleticism is also required to give the player the necessary range. Arm strength is the least important tool, because as long as the player can run down fly balls heading towards the gap, teams can live with a lack of outfield assists. Hitting ability and power rank second and fourth respectively, which agrees with the suggestion that offense is just as important as defense when discussing a centerfield prospect. More so than any other position, when a centerfielder puts all the tools together, you can have a generational talent in the mold of a Ken Griffey Jr. or Mike Trout.

• Top centerfield prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Anthony Gose
• Centerfielders in 2012 Top 30: 3
• Centerfield WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Vernon Wells (5.2), Colby Rasmus (0.9)

The King in the North

Jake Marisnick – 2012 team(s): High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire
489 AB, .249/.321/.399 (.720 OPS), 29 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 24 SB, 37/100 BB/K

Jake Marisnick, pictured during Spring Training, has received the promotion to Double-A New Hampshire (John Lott / National Post)

Entering the 2012 season, Jake Marisnick was easily the best center field prospect in the Blue Jays system. Anthony Gose had a great season for Double-A New Hampshire, but Marisnick’s combination of tools and in-game production gave him a decisive edge. A year later, it’s a vastly different story. At least it was, until I realized Gose had surpassed the maximum at-bat threshold to retain his prospect eligibility. That made the decision a clear one once again, but for all of the wrong reasons. Jake Marisnick did not have a great season, and while he kept his head above water in the Florida State League, the elite pitching prospects of the Eastern League forced him under. His enormous success with Lansing during the 2011 season may have raised expectations unrealistically high a bit too soon, because in reality, we’re still seeing the transition from athlete to baseball player. Marisnick was 21 years old for the duration of the season, and many players his age are either in college or A-ball. Some struggles in the upper minors not only should be accepted, they should have been expected. Unfortunately, once the hype train gets going, it’s near impossible to stop.

If you look at his abilities on a baseball field, the reasoning behind the hype becomes readily apparent. When someone in sports describes a catalyst, they’re talking about a player like Jake Marisnick. He stands an imposing 6-foot-4, and with 200 pounds of lean muscle across his frame, he’s athleticism embodied. He has broad shoulders, and his legs are so long he looks like a gazelle once he gets underway. Marisnick takes excellent reads in the outfield, and uses his plus speed to cover a vast amount of outfield grass. His arm strength is yet another plus tool, totaling 10 outfield assists in 118 games last season – an excellent number for a centerfielder. In addition to having outstanding pure speed, Marisnick is an exceptional base runner as well. In 307 career minor league games, he’s been successful on 81% of his stolen base attempts (84/104), and frequently takes the extra base whether it be going first to third, or stretching a double into a triple.

What makes Marisnick a true five tool prospect is the potential in his offensive game. His rough summer in New Hampshire rubbed the shine off a little bit, but Marisnick still has the potential to be a dynamic, fear-inducing threat in the meat of the order of a playoff caliber lineup. He faces the pitcher with a slightly open stance and a very wide base, and readies himself quickly. Once he’s in the set position, Marisnick calms down, looking almost statuesque. He holds his hands just above the shoulders, and as the pitch is delivered, he strides forward, drops his hands, and quickly pulls them through the zone generating plus bat speed. His swing is line drive oriented, as he has enough raw power in his frame to avoid needing to cheat with an uppercut. Marisnick will take bad pitches and even borderline fastballs, but in his short time in New Hampshire he was overwhelmed by the quality of the breaking balls. It’s not a glaring concern, as it is all part of the transition from athlete to baseball player. Above average breaking balls are few and far between in the low minors, but in Double-A and above, they’re a requirement for survival.

After the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League where he’s currently playing, Marisnick will have the offseason to look over the tape of what happened in Double-A, and begin to make adjustments for the upcoming season. The last time he struggled with a late season promotion, he came back the next year to produce an .888 OPS and be named to four separate All-Star teams. Hopefully that maturity and focus will return to him, as big things will be expected when he returns to New Hampshire next spring.

Question Mark

Dwight Smith Jr – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
222 AB, .212/.279/.315 (.594 OPS), 9 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 29 RBI, 1 SB, 17/33 BB/K

Dwight Smith Jr. heading to the batting cage during minor league spring training, 2012 (Image via MLBProspectPortal.com)

When a team selects a high school hitter in the first round, they accept there’s going to be some risk involved. So when the Blue Jays selected Dwight Smith Jr. in the supplemental first round of the 2011 draft, they knew there were absolutely no guarantees. Working in their favor, however, was that Dwight’s father was a career .275/.333/.422 hitter across parts of eight Major League seasons. Having “baseball genes” is a huge bonus, as not only does the player have inherent physical abilities, but they grew up around the sport, making the transition from the amateur ranks into the professional game an easier adjustment. Thus far, that hasn’t been the case with Smith Jr. His contract with the team wasn’t finalized until deadline day, which when combined with a hamstring issue during his senior high school year, made it logical for him to sit out the remainder of 2011. Smith’s debut came with Bluefield (and later Vancouver) during the 2012 season where he struggled mightily, producing a sub-.600 OPS across 59 games. He’ll only be 20 years old on Opening Day 2013, but with such a strong outfield depth chart in the low minors, Smith needs to come back strong to avoid getting lost in the numbers.

The results were particularly disappointing when considering that an advanced bat was supposed to be his strongest trait. The plate approach showed up at least, as despite poor batting numbers, he maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, showing excellent zone control with two strikes. You can see how he focuses on that aspect of his game, as at the plate, he chokes up on the bat to ensure his swing is clean and quick to the ball. Even in a fresh count, you can see an inch or two of handle between his bottom hand and the knob of the bat. Additionally, Smith faces the mound with an open stance, further augmenting his ability to pick up and react to pitches. He’s a bit too active in the box for my liking, as he both wiggles his bat and sways back and forth from a crouched position. His timing mechanism is a huge front step, something he learned from his father and has used for years. After the stride, Smith Jr. follows through with average bat speed from a slightly uppercut swing plane. Despite a bit of a stocky frame he’s not a big power guy, with the tool grading out as average.

Smith isn’t fast, but he’s a good base runner thanks to a natural talent of reading pitchers. It’s much of the same in centerfield, as while he doesn’t have as much range as the other centerfielders on this primer, he has an excellent first step and takes highly efficient routes to the ball. His arm strength is fringe-average, but he makes up for it with plus level accuracy and a great release on his throws. The scouting report on Smith Jr. is usually based around the phrase “excellent instincts that play up average tools”, but he’s going to need to rely less on the former and more on the latter if he hopes to get his career moving in the right direction. Other than “short season ball” it’s hard to surmise where exactly he’ll open next year, as each of the next three centerfielders on this list will also be looking for playing time. It may come down to who looks the best during extended spring training,

On the Rise

D.J. Davis – 2012 team(s): Gulf Coast Blue Jays, Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
228 AB, .250/.355/.386 (.741 OPS), 10 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 25 SB, 27/70 BB/K

D.J. Davis was Toronto’s number one pick in the 2012 draft (Image courtesy PerfectGame.org)

When the Toronto Blue Jays selected D.J. Davis with the 17th overall pick in the 2012 draft, a kid named Corey Seager was still on the board (the Dodgers took him immediately afterwards with the 18th overall pick). For that, I may never forgive them, but in just under a half season worth of games this summer, Davis did enough to sooth some of the pain. There was a lot of criticism towards the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and its impact on amateur talent acquisition – and rightfully so – but one thing it did correctly was moving the draft signing deadline forward a month. From a macroscopic view, the Davis pick wasn’t particularly surprising, as under General Manager Alex Anthopoulos, the organization has made a clear shift in philosophy towards high tool athletes. The risk is certainly greater when you draft a player with a “developing” hit tool, but because of their athleticism there’s no doubt that the upside is significantly higher should they put the total package together.

Davis’ lack of polish is exemplified when looking at his swing mechanics, which appear to change between at-bats. Finding some consistency will be key moving forward, as it’s impossible to improve something if what you’re trying to improve upon is always in a state of flux. The raw talent is there, however, as regardless of his swing path it’s coming from, the bat speed is quite impressive. He starts from a narrow base, but takes a big stride forward as he transfers his weight. Davis has good hip rotation, but he’ll need to get his swing under control, as he’s prone to spinning on his heels. His hands are low and his bat is quick to the ball, as Davis understands his best weapon is his speed, not his power. His chances of success are much greater with a groundball or line drive than with a fly ball, especially when considering he’s a left handed hitter. He’s not without power, but Davis’ ceiling in that regard is limited by his slim 6-foot-1 frame.

Baseball America has compared his raw speed to that of Billy Hamilton – yes, the guy who stole a record 155 bases last season – but that seems a bit absurd to me. Davis has 80 caliber speed, sure, but when discussing Hamilton’s speed, many people rank him as a 90, which is literally off the scale. Regardless, Davis has the potential to be a 70+ stolen base guy, so long as he can maintain a healthy on-base percentage. Like the offensive aspect of his game, Davis’ defense is more raw than polish at this point. His speed allows him to make up for many mistakes, but he often has poor reads or takes an inefficient path to the ball – reminiscent of current Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis. Thankfully, D.J. just turned 18 in July, and has more than enough time to smooth things out and remain in centerfield. His arm strength is below average, but as I mentioned above, it’s the least important tool for a centerfielder.

It will be interesting to see how the centerfield depth chart in the low minor leagues unfolds, as four centerfielders will be fighting for three spots between Lansing, Vancouver, and Bluefield. The Blue Jays are likely to play it cautious with Davis, as while he has heaps of upside, he struck out 70 times in 60 games in short season ball last season. A second go-around with Vancouver should be in store, with the possibility of a late season promotion to Lansing if he proves himself capable.

Dream on Me

Anthony Alford – 2012 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
18 AB, .167/.250/.333 (.583 OPS), 0 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4 SB, 2/4 BB/K

Anthony Alford playing for his high school baseball team (Image courtesy PerfectGame.org)

According to Baseball America, Alford was rated as the 36th best player in the 2012 draft, but many teams didn’t even bother ranking him on their board. At the time, Alford had a strong commitment to play football at Southern Mississippi, and even went as far as to tell teams he wasn’t interested in playing baseball. We may never know if the front office had an inside scoop, but the Blue Jays chose to call his bluff, selecting him in the third round. When combining the football angle and the sheer number of high upside players Toronto chose in the first three rounds, few gave the Blue Jays much of a shot at landing the two-sport athlete. Come deadline day, however, the Blue Jays inked Alford to a professional contract worth 750 thousand dollars, with the kicker that they would allow him to play football for Nebraska in the fall. The contract received mixed reviews, as while some applauded the team for doing the near impossible, others felt it was a waste of money, as players who don’t focus solely on baseball often fall too far behind the development curve. We likely won’t know which side is correct for years, but there’s certainly no questioning the boldness of Anthopoulos and his draft team.

Alford’s athleticism is off the charts, and while his speed is a notch below that of D.J. Davis, his power upside is the highest of any of Toronto’s centerfield prospects. In terms of raw power it’s some of the best in the system, though players like Travis d’Arnaud have vastly superior in-game power thanks to years of baseball development. Standing 6-foot-1 and weighing in at 210 pounds, Alford has a muscular and highly toned build, a lasting benefit of his football career where he plays quarterback in an option style offense. At the plate, he has an open stance with his hands up by the ear hole of his helmet. When he swings, he taps his lead foot, keeps his front shoulder closed, then explodes through the ball with a short stroke and electric bat speed. Alford transfers his weight through the swing very well and has some uppercut, which helps create the plus power projection. It’s a shame he felt the need to play football, as with only a couple of years focusing on baseball he could be an offensive beast.

For a quarterback, Alford’s arm strength is surprisingly mediocre. I really expected more, but given that his football team utilizes him more for his legs than his arm (he’s thrown 89 times compared to 76 runs thus far this season), it’s understandable. His outstanding speed allows him to cover tons of ground, but like most high school outfielders he relies too heavily on his athleticism to make up for misreads. It’s something that Alford will need to work on, but unless he can improve it significantly, a move to left field may eventually be in store. Outfielders who take bad routes and have a weak arm simply can’t survive as centerfielders for long.

Given his poor personal numbers and Southern Mississippi’s 0-7 record thus far, one has to wonder if Alford is beginning to regret his decision. The Blue Jays would welcome him with open arms if he chose to play baseball fulltime, and it would certainly be a boon to his development. As it stands it’s certainly a unique situation, as while the organization wants him to get reps, preparation for the college football season begins in August. Another short season assignment might limit him to just a month’s worth of games, but is Alford ready for a full season league where he would play baseball for five months? I don’t have an answer, as I can’t recall the last time a baseball prospect was also playing college football. Needless to say it’ll be a situation to watch, as Alford has the physical tools that baseball scouts love to dream on.

Remember the Name

Dalton Pompey – 2012 team(s): Low-A Vancouver, Rookie-Bluefield, Single-A Lansing
70 AB, .286/.375/.429 (.804 OPS), 4 2B, 3 3B, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 5 SB, 10/14 BB/K

Dalton Pompey running fielding drills during minor league spring training, 2012 (Image via MLBProspectPortal.com)

The fifth and final name on the centerfield primer is Dalton Pompey, a native of Mississauga, Ontario. Pompey was drafted in the 16th round of the 2010 draft, and with a signing bonus of just 150 thousand dollars, he’s easily the lowest profile prospect on the list. He was extremely young at the time of his selection – just 17 years, 6 months old, which has allowed him to play in short season ball for parts of three years before he turns 20 later this winter. Pompey made his season debut with Vancouver – one of the few noteworthy prospects to begin the year there, but after a hot start that saw him hit .294/.442/.441 in 11 games, he went down with a broken hand. It was originally thought to be a season ending injury, but Pompey showed a lot of resolve to fight his way back and play in another nine games between Bluefield and Lansing to close out the season.

Coming out of the draft, many scouts labeled Pompey as a “tweener”, which is to say, he’s not fast enough for centerfield, and not strong enough to play an outfield corner. It’s hard to argue the latter, as at just 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds, Pompey’s build is more lean than muscular. He’s quickly dispelled the former, however, as in just 91 career games he has five triples and 32 stolen bases (at an incredible 91% success rate). The Blue Jays have tried him out in left field and right field in the past, but last season he moved to centerfield almost exclusively, making 17 of his 19 starts there. His speed allows him to cover a lot of ground, but he’s still a little rough around the edges when it comes to taking proper routes. He’ll need to continue to improve upon that, as his average arm couldn’t handle right field well, and it’s hard to establish yourself as left field prospect without monster offensive upside.

Pompey’s game isn’t solely based around speed, however, as the switch hitter is a legitimate threat at the plate. He’s not a tall player, but he uses his length well, standing high in the box with an open stance. His lower half is quiet, but his hands can get busy while he waits for the pitch. When the ball is delivered, he strides forward, pulls his hands back, and swings through with solid bat speed. One concern is that Pompey has some bat wrap, which can be a huge problem if not corrected. Bat wrapping leads to a longer swing, and while it can boost power, it drastically reduces swing timing and can be crippling against a smart pitcher who mixes speeds. One of his better traits is his plate approach, as Pompey is a mature pitcher who will wait for the pitch he wants. Unless he bulks up substantially – which might be unwise – his power is never going to be a plus tool. Pompey’s ultimate ceiling in that regard may be 10-15 home runs, but ample doubles and triples should help maintain a solid to above average isolated power.

The hamate injury really messed with Pompey’s development timeline, as he was on track for an August promotion to Lansing where he would have closed out the year in preparation for his full season debut in 2013. Even with the hiccup, he’s the most qualified of the four centerfield candidates listed on this primer to make the leap. The game action has been more limited than everyone would like, but he’s taken part in three years of fall instructional action (the end-of-summer equivalent of extended spring training), which is important for development and something none of the three prospects above him can boast. On an always talented Lansing squad, Pompey will definitely be one of the names to watch.

In addition to the Blue Jays content, there are a few other prospects to keep an eye on with the Rafters. Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin of the Nationals are legitimate top prospects, as are Matt Davidson of the Diamondbacks and Trayce Thompson of the White Sox. However, as this is a Blue Jays website, the focus will rightfully be on Toronto’s contributions. Below is a breakdown of the seven players Toronto has chosen to send, as well as some expectations of the role they make play and the success they may or may not have.

RHP Deck McGuire (Double-A)

5-15, 144.0 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 62 BB, 97 K, 5.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.06 K/9

Deck McGuire was Toronto’s 1st round pick in the 2010 draft (RENE JOHNSTON/TORONTO STAR)

Deck McGuire is both the least and most surprising amongst the Blue Jays contributions to the Arizona Fall League. On one hand, he had, from beginning to end, arguably the worst season of any pitcher in the minor league system this year. With that in mind, sending him to get some extra work in seems like a good opportunity to enter the offseason in a positive frame of mind. On the other hand, the Arizona Fall League is probably the least pitcher friendly environment in all of North American baseball. Not only is it played at high altitude in the southwestern US, but teams often send top hitting prospects on the cusp of a major league promotion there as a final dress rehearsal. Ergo, while sending McGuire to get extra work may seem like a good idea, the possibility of him getting absolutely shelled and taking a step backwards confidence-wise is very real. His flyball-heavy tendencies thus far in his minor league career don’t help my concerns either.

RHP John Stilson (High-A, Double-A)

5-4, 104.1 IP, 110 H, 45 ER, 8 HR, 42 BB, 91 K, 3.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.85 K/9

Admittedly, seeing John Stilson assigned to the Salt River Rafters was a bit of a shock for me. He is coming off a fairly heavy workload in his first professional season, particularly considering the question marks surrounding a shoulder injury at the end of his college career. What this assignment tells me is that the Blue Jays plan to move forward with the relief role for Stilly, which, as I’ve voiced a number of times, I feel is the right course of action. In terms of both quality of stuff and career longevity, the bullpen is the logical choice. We won’t know for sure until games get underway and box scores start to pile up, but the team may be preparing him for a mid-2013 debut as a late inning fireman.

RHP Sam Dyson (High-A, Double-A)

4-2, 74.0 IP, 73 H, 25 ER, 3 HR, 20 BB, 38 K, 3.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.62 K/9

The Sam Dyson selection makes a whole lot of sense. He has a splash of major league experience (2 games), and very likely will be counted on to contribute at some point during the 2013 season. Those 74 innings were also the first of his career thanks to some injury difficulties in previous years, so any added work would have to be looked upon as a bonus for the 24 year old. Additionally, Dyson is not the type of arm you worry about in the Arizona Fall League for two reasons. First, his ceiling is, at best, a 7th or 8th inning reliever, and more likely the former. While you always care about the confidence level of a prospect, you’re more willing to take risks with the bullpen guy than the future top of the rotation starter. The second reason is his groundball tendencies, as he had a 3.09 GO/AO ratio between Dunedin and New Hampshire last season. Heavy sinkers are the best way to combat the thin air environment.

RHP Ryan Tepera (High-A, Double-A)

8-6, 95.1 IP, 109 H, 58 ER, 7 HR, 49 BB, 71 K, 5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 6.70 K/9

With the Blue Jays required to send four pitchers to the Fall League, chances were high at least one of them was going to be an org guy. Ryan Tepera falls into that category this year. It’s nothing new, as last season the Blue Jays sent Wes Etheridge as their fourth pitcher, and in 2010, it was Matt Daly. Tepera was a 19th round pick by the Blue Jays back in 2009, and in his four years the highest level he has reached was Double-A here in 2012. The results have been subpar, and now 25, a major league future is beyond doubtful. Tepera’s role in the organization is to collect innings where needed and protect the valuable young arms from excessive workloads. He could be in a similar position with the Rafters as well.

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A, Double-A)

489 AB, .249/.321/.399 (.719 OPS), 29 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 24 SB, 37/100 BB/K

Jake Marisnick is the only true elite talent the Blue Jays have chosen to send to Arizona this fall, and he likely has redemption on his mind after a subpar second half performance. After a promotion to Double-A, Marisnick’s numbers fell across the board. His contact rate sunk; as did his walk rate and power. The only positive from his second half numbers was a spike in stolen base numbers, but his bat skills are far more important to me than his athleticism at this point in his development. As I’ve mentioned, high elevation and low quality pitchers make the Arizona Fall League an ideal environment for hitters, and with Marisnick’s inherent talent, the 21 year old should be poised for a smashing performance. Anything less could be considered a serious disappointment.

SS Ryan Goins (Double-A)

546 AB, .289/.342/.403 (.745 OPS), 33 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, 47/78 BB/K

With nine infielders on the roster, Ryan Goins is unlikely to see a ton of playing time. I expect Chris Owings will be the primary starter at shortstop for the Rafters, but Goins’ defensive versatility should allow him to squeak in some games at second base as well. The 24 year old doesn’t have the flashy tools, but he has a sound approach at the plate and can hold his own in the field. He’s not going to be a star and is unlikely to even be a steady regular, but Goins is the type of guy who would fit in extremely well as the 25th man on the roster for somebody. These at-bats could prove valuable, as with four years of minor league service under his belt as a former college draft pick, Ryan Goins should be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

OF Kevin Pillar (Single-A, High-A)

499 AB, .323/.374/.439 (.813 OPS), 28 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 91 RBI, 51 SB, 40/70 BB/K

Kevin Pillar is the only player on the list who didn’t play in Double-A this season, but at 23 years old, he’s in a similar age bracket to most. He got off to a great start with Lansing, hitting .322 with an .841 OPS in 86 games. That earned him a promotion to Dunedin, and while he hit .323 there, the secondary numbers dropped off dramatically. Pillar’s walk rate dropped from 9.3% to 2.8%, and his isolated power dropped 37 points as well. All told, his OPS slipped to .754 in 42 games. While the Arizona Fall League is thin on pitching prospects, there are plenty of crafty minor league veterans who could take advantage of Pillar’s underdeveloped game. As such, he’s been classified as a “taxi squad” roster player, meaning he can only be active on Wednesdays and Saturdays. The Blue Jays appear to be setting Pillar up for more of a learning experience than a test.

I wouldn’t classify the list as underwhelming, but it’s missing a certain catcher whom I had both hoped and expected to see assigned. Travis d’Arnaud tore up his knee in late June, and at the time it was suggested he was looking at roughly an eight week recovery. That would have placed him at a late August or early September return, which isn’t particularly ideal for a prospect. The Triple-A season would be coming to a close, and it would be cruel to expect d’Arnaud to make his major league debut coming off a knee injury with no rehab assignment.

I can’t remember if it was ever said by General Manager Alex Anthopolous, but at the time it was widely speculated that d’Arnaud would finish his season in the Arizona Fall League, allowing him to recover some lost at-bats and better prepare himself for a possible starting assignment next spring. The fact he was held off the roster suggests two possible scenarios, neither of which makes me feel particularly good.

The first is that the knee injury has taken longer to recover from than initially expected. That would be extremely bad, as catchers are required to squat for brutally long periods of time every day, which is hard on the knees to say the least. It would also be yet another knock against d’Arnaud in the injury prone department, as in just the last few years he’s dealt with recurring back issues as well as a torn thumb ligament. Some level of durability is expected of catchers, and if this knee problem is lingering, one would have to seriously question d’Arnaud’s long term future behind the plate.

The second scenario is less worrisome but just as frustrating. By holding a healthy d’Arnaud out of the Arizona Fall League, the team would be all but handing the starting catcher job to J.P. Arencibia. While once could argue that d’Arnaud has done nothing at the major league level and shouldn’t simply be handed the starting job, one could also point out that Arencibia has a .272 on-base percentage in 229 career games. I was hoping to see a fair competition in spring training for the starting job, but if this is the accurate scenario, we appear headed for another Travis Snider / Eric Thames situation: a “competition” that is decided before it even starts.

Despite all this, those of us sitting comfortably in our temperature controlled offices, houses, and apartments expect the players to have consistently strong seasons from the beginning of April through to the end of August. In reality, it rarely happens. Hot streaks and cold streaks are the normality, with players hoping when all is said that the hot will outweigh the cold. Listed below are eight players. The first four are Blue Jays prospects who overcame the conditions and battled through the season, coming on at their strongest in the second half. The second group of Blue Jays prospects are those who got off to a hot start, but failed to carry it through to the end of the season.

The pre- and post-All Star designations are based upon the individual league that the prospects played in. For example, the Midwest League All Star break is in late June, while the Eastern League All Star break takes place in early July. For players who split the season between two minor league levels, the separation is from the level at which they were playing when they experienced the All Star break. As short season players have no first half, they’re omitted from consideration for this article.

Second Half Studs

The prospects with the best second half, with images courtesy the US Presswire, The Girl's Guide to the Blue Jays, Sports Road Trips, and Ward Perrin of Canada.com

RHP Noah Syndergaard (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 3-2, 43.2 IP, 44 H, 19 ER, 3 HR, 15 BB, 57 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.75 K/9
• Post All-Star: 5-3, 60.0 IP, 37 H, 11 ER, 0 HR, 16 BB, 65 K, 1.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.75 K/9

Noah Syndergaard opened the year pitching in tandem with Anthony DeSclafani. They alternated who started the game and who relieved, and as I wrote in detail months ago, Syndergaard didn’t handle pitching out of the bullpen very well whatsoever. As such, it’s no surprise that once he was freed from the clutches of relief work in the second half, his numbers really took off. His 65 post All-Star strikeouts were the third most in the Blue Jays system, behind Javier Avendano and Justin Nicolino, though both pitchers had a significant inning advantage. The word “overhyped” was starting to get thrown around in prospects circles when Syndergaard’s ERA was sitting around the 4.00 mark, but his downright filthy second half performance should cement his position as an elite pitching prospect. The jump from Single-A to High-A is significant, so Syndergaard will need to have a focused offseason if he hopes to have another dominant season for Dunedin – and possibly New Hampshire – in 2013.

3B Gustavo Pierre (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 52 AB, .135/.224/.250 (.474 OPS), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 6/16 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 226 AB, .279/.321/.451 (.772 OPS), 13 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 5 SB, 10/63 BB/K

Gustavo Pierre opened the 2011 season with Lansing, but after hitting .187/.244/.262 in 56 games while playing porous defense at shortstop, he was demoted down to Bluefield. He finished the year very strongly, but when assignments came this spring, Pierre’s was to extended spring training instead of full season ball. Thanks to injuries and the poor performance of another player on this list, however, he got a second chance with the Lugnuts at the end of May. The season quickly became reminiscent of 2011, as through his first 15 games he had an unsettling .474 OPS. The team stuck with him this time, and it paid off in the second half, as Pierre was one of the Lugnuts’ most consistent hitters in July and August. The decrease in stress from shifting down the defensive spectrum to third base likely helped substantially, as while the 20 year old is still extremely raw in the field, his body type is much better suited to the hot corner.

RHP Danny Barnes (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 17 SV, 27.2 IP, 28 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 28 K, 2.28 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.11 K/9
• Post All-Star: 17 SV, 23.2 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 35 K, 0.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 13.31 K/9

After a dominant full season debut with Lansing in 2011, I ranked Barnes as the Blue Jays’ 29th best prospect; not an insignificant honor for a relief pitcher in such a deep system. Things didn’t get off quite so well with Dunedin in the first half of 2012. Sure, the ERA was sexy and he was piling up saves, but the strikeout rate was well down from 2011 (13.50 K/9), and way too many runners were getting on base. The way he was pitching, an implosion seemed inevitable. Something happened around the All-Star break though, as in the second half of the season Barnes pitched like a man possessed. His strikeout rate returned to its previous level of dominance, and he allowed just 13 base runners in 22 games. Barnes’ stellar finish to the season guarantees a Double-A assignment next spring, with the major leagues a distinct possibility in the not so distant future.

3B Kellen Sweeney (Single-A Lansing, Low-A Vancouver)

• Pre All-Star: 117 AB, .188/.314/.222 (.536 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 21/27 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 268 AB, .220/.319/.347 (.666 OPS), 15 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 5 SB, 37/50 BB/K

Kellen Sweeney was the sleeper pick amongst many Blue Jays fans entering the 2012 season. He was a second round pick in the 2010 draft, but thanks to a late contract agreement and a serious wrist injury in 2011, he had appeared in just 27 games through his first two seasons. The team knew they needed to get the 20 year olds career moving in the right direction, so they handed him a bold Lansing assignment. It didn’t take long to realize Sweeney wasn’t ready, as he was simply awful through the first two months of the season. Gustavo Pierre took his roster spot, and Sweeney was sent to extended spring training to await short season ball. He has been significantly better with Vancouver in the second half, with his OPS improving each month from June through August. Sweeney should prepare himself for a second crack at the Midwest League next spring, because a lot will be riding on his performance.

Second Half Duds

CF Jake Marisnick (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 285 AB, .256/.338/.439 (.777 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 10 SB, 26/61 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 204 AB, .240/.293/.343 (.636 OPS), 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 14 SB, 11/39 BB/K

Jake Marisnick had a very strong start to the season in High-A Dunedin. While the numbers were down compared to his breakout 2011 season with Lansing, he was still at or around the .800 OPS mark for much of his time in the Florida State League, which is quite an accomplishment. The FSL is a notoriously difficult place to hit, and Marisnick’s performance was accentuated by the painful-to-watch struggles of the corner outfielders to his left and right. Things went substantially downhill after a promotion to the Eastern League, as at times Marisnick looked completely overmatched. If not for a strong closing week, his second half OPS would have been below .600. He still has all the tools in the world and is looked upon very favorably in the scouting community, but he will have a chance at statistical redemption when he represents the Blue Jays in the Arizona Fall League later this year.

RHP Aaron Sanchez (Single-A Lansing)

• Pre All-Star: 6-0, 47.0 IP, 24 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 28 BB, 53 K, 0.77 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.15 K/9
• Post All-Star: 2-5, 43.1 IP, 40 H, 21 ER, 3 HR, 23 BB, 44 K, 4.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.14 K/9

Fluff pieces were aplenty about Aaron Sanchez in the first half, and I was guilty of more than a few. The above line makes it readily apparent why – he truly was filthy. The scouting reports were just as glowing, as scouts were more than willing to label Sanchez’ curveball as one of the best in minor league baseball. His 97 mph capable fastball is pretty nice, too. Control and command have always been the question with Sanchez, and they became a big problem in the second half, particularly on the command end. His walk rate remained similar, but the pitches entering the zone weren’t going exactly where he wanted. Instead of pounding down like he did in the first half (.156 opponents average, 2.76 GO/AO, 0 HR), his location drifted upwards, leading to a huge increase in hitability (.252 opponents average, 1.82 GO/AO, 3 HR). Sanchez’ failure to finish his pitches suggests this is a case of fatigue, as the right hander threw just 54.1 innings in 2011. While the second half numbers are disappointing, the experience should better prepare him for yet another workload increase next season.

RHP John Stilson (High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire)

• Pre All-Star: 5-1, 76.1 IP, 75 H, 24 ER, 2 HR, 29 BB, 64 K, 2.83 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.55 K/9
• Post All-Star: 0-3, 28.0 IP, 35 H, 21 ER, 6 HR, 13 BB, 27 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 8.68 K/9

John Stilson was one of the biggest question marks in the farm system entering the season, and the Blue Jays’ handling of the right hander supplied few answers. Stilson suffered a serious shoulder injury in his final college season, and there were doubts he’d be able to start the year on time. He did, and the team pushed him right into the High-A rotation where he had an excellent first half. The strikeout rate was merely average, but for a player making his professional debut, the results were more than satisfactory. Stilson received a mid-June promotion to Double-A, where things quickly unraveled. The move to the bullpen at the beginning of August likely tied in to an innings cap, so perhaps the drop in performance was fatigue related. Stilson will return to New Hampshire to open 2013, and if the Blue Jays have any sense about them, it will be in a permanent relief role. It speaks volumes when a college pitcher struggles to reach the 100 inning plateau in the minor leagues.

LF Marcus Knecht (High-A Dunedin)

• Pre All-Star: 219 AB, .228/.328/.438 (.766 OPS), 16 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 31/72 BB/K
• Post All-Star: 233 AB, .193/.277/.343 (.620 OPS), 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB, 19/74 BB/K

A 3rd round pick in the 2010 draft, Marcus Knecht established himself on the prospect radar with a big season for Lansing in 2011, particularly for his combination of power (199 ISO) and plate discipline (12.7% walk rate). He joined the aforementioned Marisnick in Dunedin, with high expectations. Like Marisnick, Knecht had a solid albeit unspectacular first half. His batting average plummeted due to a soaring strikeout rate, but his power and plate discipline kept his overall batting line respectable. Things got worse in the second half, as not only did his contact rate take yet another step backwards, but his usually strong accessory statistics fell flat as well. The overall season line is rather unsightly, as Knecht was just barely able to keep his on base percentage above the .300 mark. While a Double-A assignment next spring isn’t out of the question, his second half was so poor that the Blue Jays might decide Knecht needs to prove himself capable of hitting High-A pitching for a couple of months.

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 0-0, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Jays' pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard can match heat with the best of them at training camp in Duendin. (STEPH ROGERS photo)

On August 31st, Noah Syndergaard pitched the second best game of any Blue Jays minor leaguer this season, with the best being Roberto Osuna’s late July 13-strikeout gem. Facing South Bend for the fourth time this season, the hitters failed to take advantage of their extended looks, as just one out was recorded outside of the infield grass. The other 14 came by way of strikeout or ground out, a masterful performance from beginning to end. In total, Syndergaard allowed just one base runner, a first inning single by Tom Belza. The game finished off a fabulous second half of the season, as since the Midwest League All Star break in late June, Syndergaard has a microscopic 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Those who are thinking Aaron Sanchez is easily the top pitching prospect in the system may want to have a second look.

2. C Yan Gomes (LAS): 32 AB, .406/.444/.656 (1.100 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 3/7 BB/K

When Yan Gomes was called up to Toronto the first time, he had a number of big hits and really helped the team when it needed it most. The other call-ups, however, didn’t go nearly as smoothly. In total, Gomes produced a .165/.225/.316 batting line in 33 games for the big club, and often times the swings were just as ugly as the box score suggested. The minor leagues were a different story, as this week capped off a breakout season for the Brazilian. He had at least one hit in each of his eight games, and showed his usual extra base power with two doubles and two home runs. Gomes has done enough over the last two seasons to show he can hit upper level minor league pitching, the next step is proving he’s not just another quad-A player.

3. LHP Sean Nolin (NH): 1-0, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Sean Nolin has not received the credit due to him for his monster 2012 season. He had yet another dominant outing on August 30th, allowing just one run on three base runners in six innings while striking out seven, earning the win. While pitcher win/loss records are useless in terms of analysis, the outing pushed Nolin’s mark to 10-0 on the season, which certainly looks nice on paper. What’s ever better, however, is his 2.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Additionally, his peripheral values (9.59 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9) suggest he’s been pitching to his talent and not just getting lucky, leading to a very strong fielding independent pitching number of 2.77. Backing up that value is his 3.16 FIP from the 2011 season, indicating we have a very real prospect on our hands.

4. CF Jake Marisnick (NH): 37 AB, .351/.359/.595 (.924 OPS), 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 1/3 BB/K

Without a doubt, Jake Marisnick had the most disappointing season of any Blue Jays prospect. I ranked him as the second best in the system over the winter, and was certainly expecting more than the .719 OPS he produced between the Florida State League and Eastern League. At least he finished the season on a positive note, as after failing to appear on the hot sheet for two months, his late August performance earned him a spot on the final list of the year. Marisnick played in eight games this week, and had two base hits in six of them. The walks were down – as they were for his entire stay with the Fisher Cats – but he finally displayed some of the power that allowed him to bust onto the scene for the Lugnuts last season. With New Hampshire long eliminated from post season action, Marisnick can take some time and prepare himself for the Arizona Fall League, where the environment and his hitting ability should combine to produce some gaudy numbers.

5. SS Ryan Goins (NH): 29 AB, 10 H, .345/.441/.552 (.993 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 5/6 BB/K

At 24 years old Goins isn’t much of a prospect, but he’s done enough over the past two seasons to receive a mention when he has one of the best weeks of his career. He filled up the stat sheet, showing good plate discipline, solid power, and surprising speed – his three stolen bases this week alone bested his 2011 total of two. Goins’ slash lines over the past two seasons have been eerily similar, as in 2011 while playing for the D-Jays, he hit .284/.340/.404 (.745). This season, with New Hampshire, he concluded the year with a .289/.342/.403 (.745) line. He doesn’t have strong enough tools to play regularly in the major leagues, but with a strong 2013 season he might be able to carve out a niche as a Mike McCoy type player, either with Toronto or somewhere else.

6. 1B Mike McDade (LAS): 23 AB, .348/.464/.522 (.986 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 5/6 BB/K

Back and healthy after a trip to the disabled list earlier this month, McDade had a very strong week in limited playing time. Unlike the other hitters on the list who saw action in seven or eight games, McDade played in just six, but did enough in those games to earn the final spot on the final hot sheet of the season. He proved a couple of things with his 2012 performance; first, that he’s probably better than a lot of us gave him credit for, and second, that even with an uptick in performance he still doesn’t hit enough to be a major league first baseman. It’s a shame, as McDade has solid power, an average bat, and is strong defensively, but the rule of first basemen is harsh and unforgiving – and rightly so. If you’re dreaming on a first base prospect who might have an OPS upwards of .800 in his prime years, you’re probably doing the baseball thing wrong.

May 23, 2012; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Eric Thames (not pictured) bat and helmet on the ground after he batted against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

If anyone had any expectation of the Jays pulling themselves a little closer to a wild card spot while they took care of business against the Seattle Mariners, they were just flat out wrong. That was also my expectation, so I stand corrected along with you! The Jays were playing in a stadium that had a ton of people cheering them on, against a team that was well under .500, and against a team that was struggling to score runs. The Jays fell flat and are flying out of Seattle having been swept in a series they should have won.

The part that may sting most, however, is how Eric Thames was able to deliver a knock out punch and help his new team get the W. His 4th HR of the season was a no-doubter and drove in 2 RBI, the difference in this game. Watching him round the bases, I couldn’t help but cheer him on, just a little, with the hopes that the Jays would mount a comeback.

Carlos Villanueva was cruising at the start of this game, easily making his way through the first 3 innings but eventually made some mistakes that hurt him. This was his first loss of the season and could have been a win if the Jays were able to score a decent amount of runs. Of note was the fact that Brad Lincoln made his Jays debut and threw 1.1 scoreless innings, needing only 7 pitches to get the job done! (more…)

Jul 25, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder

If Alex Anthopoulos was trying to get the attention of Toronto’s fan base, he definitely succeeded yesterday when he dealt fan favourite Travis Snider to Pittsburgh in return for RHP Brad Lincoln, and then followed that up by dealing Eric Thames to Seattle in return for RHP Steve Delabar. To say that both deals took fans by surprise is a major understatement, and the majority really do seem angry about the returns, so far.

I can remember the fans, myself included, pondering which of Snider or Thames would grab hold of the LF job in Toronto. There was speculation on either side of the fence, and in reality, Snider did everything he had to do to get the win. Thames has struggled a little more to get going this year after he won the first shot at the job this season. I’d like to caution all Jays fans of the following: did you ever really think either player would block Jake Marisnick from getting a shot in Toronto? I don’t think so, because unlike Thames and Snider, Marisnick has 5 tools and a higher ceiling as a result. Therefore, it only made sense for the Jays to go out there and try to get what they felt was fair value for each left-fielder.

Before I go on, I’d like to caution everyone that there’s still a possibility of the Jays using their new acquisitions to get another trade done. For example, the Jays could use both newly acquired pitchers to get a trade for Justin Upton done. After all, the Diamondbacks have said that they want pieces that can help them win this year and what could be better than improving their pitching? The Jays can now afford to deal impending free agents like Brandon Lyon and Jason Frasor, as well as Darren Oliver, three veterans who could help a competing club make a run. It’s just one example that I could come up with, but for the purposes of this article, we’ll assume that this is it and will assess it as is in 2 different articles. First up….

Travis Snider vs. Brad Lincoln (more…)

July 20, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Colby Rasmus (28) congratulates left fielder Travis Snider (45) after scoring a run during the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-US PRESSWIRE

If you’re opinion is anywhere close to mine, you’re pulling with all of your mind for Travis Snider to break out and prove once and for all that he can slide into the lineup, hit 25 HRs or more a season and give you above average stats across the board. That’s where I believe most Jays fans stand, and as they – and fellow Jays players – watched him make his return to the lineup against the Red Sox, cheers, welcoming Tweets, and high-fives became the norm throughout the game as everyone seems to be pulling for the kid they used to call “The Franchise”.

I’d like to take you all back to 2007, when Travis Snider was beginning the high ride towards the majors. Baseball America’s Matt Eddy ranked him as the 2nd best Jays prospect that year, behind only Adam Lind and just ahead of Ricky Romero. Snider was coming off a .325/.412/.567 year at the rookie level where he hit 24 extra base hits (11 HRs) in only 194 ABs. Within that article, Eddy proclaimed correctly that:

He has the tools and desire to become an impact corner outfielder in the majors, and his bat should allow him to move more quickly than most high schoolers. (more…)

Jun. 23, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton (10) during the fourth inning against Chicago Cubs at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-US PRESSWIRE

Justin Upton is on the trade block… again. During the 2010 offseason, news leaked that Arizona might be willing to part with their franchise cornerstone, and the baseball world tied itself in a knot trying to figure out where he was going and for what. The team obviously never received an offer they deemed fair, as they held on to Upton and he responded with a career best year, producing a 139 OPS+ and being worth 5.7 or 6.4 WAR, depending upon whether you prefer the Baseball Reference or Fangraphs calculation. As a 23 year old, he was named an All Star, won a Silver Slugger Award, and finished fourth in MVP voting. He was one of the most exciting and talented players in baseball.

Now, just past the midpoint of the 2012 season, Arizona is once again shopping their right fielder. His performance has fallen off substantially, hitting only .273/.353/.401 through 289 at-bats. With a .324 wOBA, 97 RC+, and 1.2 WAR, even the advanced metrics can’t find many positives from his season. In short, he’s been a roughly league average player. Upton’s struggles have carried over to the team, as Arizona entered the break with a 42-43 record, four games back of the first place Dodgers. Just last year the Diamondbacks won 94 games to take the NL West – the second place Giants were eight games back – and despite a similar roster they haven’t been able to find their groove.

Back in June, the Diamondbacks managing partner Ken Kendrick had some harsh words for Upton, saying:

“He’s certainly not the Justin Upton that he has been in the past and that we would expect of him,” Kendrick said. “He’s 24 years old and it’s time for him to be a consistent performer and right now this year he’s not been that.”

It’s not common for an owner to call out any players, let alone his star player, and for good reason. Such comments can create a divide in the locker room, and come contract negotiation time, players won’t forget being publicly embarrassed. Imagine how things would have gone if the Rogers conglomerate had come out in late April and said Jose Bautista isn’t doing enough, despite literally carrying the team on his back last season. The fan backlash would have been palpable, and trade demands would have likely hit the airwaves shortly thereafter. Thankfully, nothing stupid was said, and as Jose always does, he rediscovered his stroke and is beating down the world one fastball at a time.

Back to Upton, if Arizona is foolish enough to make their franchise player available, you have to imagine the Blue Jays would be (or have been) one of the first to make a call. Upton is exactly the type of player Alex Anthopolous covets; young, athletic, dynamic, and under control (through 2015). The salary is not inconsequential, as over the final three years of the deal, Upton will earn 38.5 million, plus the remainder of this year’s 6.75 million. Given the team’s reluctance to hand elite free agents more than five years, the front office should be more than able to swallow three years at a high (but reasonable) salary.

Thanks to the Arizona beat reporters –- namely Nick Piecoro -– we at least have some idea what Kevin Towers, the Diamondbacks general manager, might be seeking in trade. Piecoro suggests the team is looking for a third baseman, shortstop, or top of the rotation starter. The first two requests make a ton of sense for Arizona. Between Ryan Roberts (258 PA), Cody Ransom (58 PA), Josh Bell (56 PA), and Geoff Blum (23 PA), the Diamondbacks have received a grand total of 0.0 WAR from their third basemen. At shortstop the team has Stephen Drew, but he only just returned from a long trip on the disabled list, and has free agency firmly in his sights. As a Scott Boras client there’s little doubt he’s going to test the waters, and recent comments made by the team suggest they’re not overly enthusiastic about bringing him back.

Despite possibly shipping their starting right fielder, outfield isn’t a pressing concern for the Diamondbacks. Between Chris Young, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel, and top prospects A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton, the team could fill the void for the at least remainder of the year, before re-evaluating the position in the offseason. The top of the rotation starter request is a little less obvious, as despite losing Daniel Hudson to Tommy John surgery this week, they still have a strong core in Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Wade Miley. The team’s top prospect Trevor Bauer recently joined the staff, and Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, and Andrew Chafin are continuing to develop in the minor leagues while all possessing big ceilings. Their desire for a pitcher is likely due to the old adage “You can never have enough pitching”, and given the ridiculous amount of arm injuries to strike baseball this year, it’s hard to fault them in that regard.

With all that being said, what do the Blue Jays have to offer? Third base is basically a non starter, as despite Justin Upton’s immense ability, there is literally a 0% chance Alex Anthopolous would include Brett Lawrie in a deal. In terms of talent, salary, and public relations, he’s far too valuable to this team. At shortstop, however, there appears to be a match. Adeiny Hechavarria is performing extremely well in Triple-A this year, and the Diamondbacks are said to be a fan of his abilities. Like Toronto, Arizona has their Triple-A affiliate in the Pacific Coast League, so they’re well aware of the environment and the effect it can have on hitters and pitchers respectively.

Adeiny Hechavarria at bat with the Las Vegas 51s. BRENDAN KENNEDY / TORONTO STAR

In addition to Hechavarria, the Blue Jays have plenty of pitchers with top of the rotation potential for Arizona to look at. From the Lansing trio, the Diamondbacks would likely be focused on Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez, as both have clearly taken a step ahead of the left handed Justin Nicolino. Down in Bluefield, Daniel Norris and Kevin Comer might interest them, but their proximity (or lack thereof) to the major leagues might be a debilitating factor.

Hechavarria and a pitcher would obviously be insufficient to peel Upton away, so the Blue Jays would need to add more. As much as it hurts, that likely starts with one of the elite centerfield prospects, Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick. They would likely favor Marisnick as he’s roughly a year and a half away, and as I mentioned, Arizona’s outfield need isn’t immediate. Gose should be ready within the next couple of months, and while he’s an elite defender, Arizona already has one of those in Chris Young. Both Young and Gose would lose a lot of value if shifted to a corner, so for the Diamondbacks, Marisnick is the more logical choice.

To round out the package, I’d offer Yan Gomes. He’s not in the Blue Jays top 30 prospects, but he could give Arizona some much needed offense from third base. Additionally, in the National League, his ability to play catcher, first base, and even some left field would be a huge positive. The Diamondbacks would like to contend again in 2013, and Gomes’ offensive spark and defensive versatility could fill a huge hole on their team until Matt Davidson, the team’s top third base prospect, is ready.

Would Jake Marisnick, Noah Syndergaard (or Aaron Sanchez), Adeiny Hechavarria, and Yan Gomes get the deal done with Arizona? Is it too much for the team to give up? The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks match up well, and I think an offer like this would be one of the best Arizona would receive. In addition to developing players for your own team, the other purpose of a farm system is to use in trade to acquire elite big league talent. As a prospect guy, losing these players would hurt, but for a player like Justin Upton, I’d make the deal. What do you think?

Jake Marisnick, pictured during Spring Training, has received the promotion to Double-A New Hampshire (John Lott / National Post)

In somewhat of a shocking early July move, the Blue Jays have promoted one of their top prospects, Jake Marisnick, from High-A Dunedin to Double-A New Hampshire. Entering the year, most of the prospect community placed Marisnick within the organization’s top two or three, and Baseball America recently named the centerfielder as the 37th best prospect in baseball on their midseason top 50 ranking. Of Marisnick, they said “Still refining his offensive approach while playing center, producing impressive power numbers for the FSL.”

The season has been a slight disappointment for Marisnick after he demolished the Midwest League in 2011 to the tune of a .320/.392/.496 slash line, but the fact that he’s managed an .800 OPS despite playing well below his potential is very encouraging and speaks volumes about the ultimate ceiling Marisnick may have. As Baseball America mentioned, Marisnick has shown plenty of power given the pitcher friendly environment of the Florida State League, with 18 doubles, 7 triples, and 6 home runs. Those extra base hits translate to a 188 ISO, which is actually a slight improvement upon his 2011 numbers despite being well behind his 14 home run pace.

The jump to Double-A will be a substantial challenge, as he’ll be facing pitchers predominantly in the 21-23 age bracket with at least a few years worth of experience under their belt. He’ll also be joining an offense that is significantly thinner than his Lansing and Dunedin teams of the past two seasons, so Marisnick may be forced to further develop his maturity and patience at the plate as opposing pitchers attempt to work around him. That test begins tonight, as Marisnick is officially leading off and playing centerfield against Portland.

The move is both exciting and interesting for Blue Jays fans, and it suggests that the scouts who have watched Marisnick play in Dunedin are far more impressed with his swing and approach than the story his statistics are telling. Luckily for us, Blue Jays fans have a strong presence in the New Hampshire area, so first hand reports on Marisnick could start trickling in as soon as tonight. By receiving the promotion now as opposed to next spring, Marisnick can get a feel for the upper minors pitching, and then spend the entire offseason focusing on improving the weaknesses in his game that the pitchers will inevitably expose. The learning experience is far more important than the numbers, so regardless of how well or poorly he plays over the final two-plus months of the year, this move is a very smart one.

1. CF Dalton Pompey (VAN): 20 AB, .350/.500/.550 (1.050 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 6/4 BB/K

From the Vancouver Sun: Canadians centre-fielder Dalton Pompey fondly recalls watching Blue Jays such as Carlos Delgado play at the Rogers Centre. Photograph by: Les Bazso, PNG

When the short season rosters were announced earlier this month, it quickly became clear that Vancouver drew the short straw in terms of quality of prospects. While Bluefield and the Gulf Coast Blue Jays each have a dozen or more legitimate talents, you can count the number of Vancouver’s high ceiling prospects on one hand. A 2010 draft pick out of a Mississauga high school, Dalton Pompey may be the Canadians’ best. Pompey has been hitting out of the two-hole, and has acted as the team catalyst and table setter. He reached base 13 times in seven games, one of which was a pinch running appearance. Of those 13 times on base, Pompey scored seven runs, and while a lot of that must be attributed to his teammates, that’s exceptional efficiency.

2. RHP Joe Musgrove (BLU): 0-0, 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Bluefield has quickly become Lansing south, as they boast yet another pitching staff capable of making scouts drool. Musgrove may not have the depth of arsenal or pure ceiling of Daniel Norris or Kevin Comer, but it can’t be argued he’s the most polished and physically mature (6’5”, 230 lbs). Musgrove features a heavy sinking fastball, and he used it to perfection this week. Of his 24 outs recorded across two games, 19 came by way of the strikeout or groundout. That’s precisely the type of production you want to see from a pitching prospect. Similar to the Lansing group, the Bluefield starters have been pitching in tandem, with Musgrove’s partner being the team’s top pitching prospect, Daniel Norris.

3. CF Anthony Gose (LAS): 21 AB, .333/.461/.571 (1.032 OPS), 3 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 SB, 5/7 BB/K

Gose finished the week with an 0-for-5 with four strikeouts on Saturday and a day off on Sunday, which isn’t exactly ideal for placement on the prospect hot sheet. Regardless, he did enough in his previous four games to earn a spot. After nearly two weeks without a stolen base attempt – whether the team dictated it or he was sore I couldn’t tell you – Gose finally got back on track this week, going a perfect 3-for-3. His performance at the plate was very well rounded, as in addition to the impressive .333 average, he went for extra bases on four of his seven hits, and drew five walks against seven strikeouts. Unfortunately for Gose, Colby Rasmus has center field in Toronto completely locked down.

4. CF Jake Marisnick (DUN): 22 AB, .318/.444/.545 (.989 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB, 5/4 BB/K

It’s been a disappointing season for Marisnick, who I ranked as the second best prospect in the system entering the year. Matters were compounded when he was forced to the disabled list with a minor injury, forcing him to miss roughly two weeks worth of games in May. Coming out of the FSL All Star break, he’s turned things around, including three straight multi hit efforts from Wednesday through Friday. Both his ISO and walk rate have remained nearly constant from his breakout 2011 season, so despite a deflated batting average, his year as a whole hasn’t been too bad.

5. 2B Christian Lopes (BLU): 17 AB, .294/.369/.882 (1.251 OPS), 0 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 2/5 BB/K

As a member of the Bluefield Blue Jays, Lopes finally made his long awaited professional debut this week, and he did not disappoint. He was only a 7th round pick in the 2011 draft, but his well above slot $800,000 signing bonus is much more indicative of his talent level. As a shortstop turned second baseman, he wasn’t drafted for his glove, he was selected because he can be an offensive force up the middle of the diamond, which he gave fans a taste of this week. In four starts and one pinch hit appearance, Lopes totaled only five hits, but four of them went for extra bases – two triples, two home runs. The result was a very slugging-heavy line, but it’s hard to deny a 1.251 OPS a spot among the system’s hottest prospects. He narrowly edged out teammate Art Charles, who had a similar offensive line, with defensive position giving Lopes the edge.

6. RHP Noah Syndergaard (LAN): 0-0, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

I wrote an article detailing how Syndergaard had been masterful in the rotation and awful in the bullpen, so it should come as a surprise to no one that in his first five inning start of the year, he had his best performance. 12 of his 15 recorded outs came by way of the strikeout or groundout, which as I mentioned with Musgrove, is an outstanding ratio to see from an elite pitching prospect. There are still rumblings that he’s overly reliant on his fastball due to an inconsistent curveball that only flashes, but if he’s finding this success working almost exclusively off one pitch, in my mind, that makes the performance even more impressive. If/when he can get his curveball to consistently solid-average, he could be a monster.

Honorable mention: Art Charles (BLU), Travis d’Arnaud (LAS), David Rollins (LAN), Chad Jenkins (NH), Asher Wojciechowski (DUN)