Among my friends, my animosity for J.P Arencibia is well-known. It’s not that I dislike him as a person, I’m sure he’s a great guy; it’s just that he’s not very good at baseball. And seeing as how he plays for my favourite team, this is a bit of a problem for me. So I decided I was going to share my feelings on J.P. Arencibia and his overall lack of being good at baseball, but then my Blue Jays blogging brethren at Bluebird Banter beat me to it, and did a fine job with it. So could I let my grudge go, could I be at peace knowing there were others pushing the anti-Arencibia rhetoric? Absolutely not. But instead of just beating the J.P. sucks and this is why drum, I’ve decided to take a look at how J.P’s prodigious strikeout rate and utter disdain for walks looks in a historic context.

Before I get to that however, I will do J.P. the service of waxing poetically about him as a Toronto Blue Jay. Arencibia is representative of the dichotomy that is Toronto Blue Jays fans, he’s adored (generally by the more casual observer) and is the target of the wrath of those of us that put a great deal of emphasis on the little things, like production . J.P. seems like an affable enough guy, interacting with fans on Twitter, endearing himself to the media, hitting home runs, being a good-looking dude – but these are (mostly) things that do nothing to help the Toronto Blue Jays. These non-baseball related qualities that have made J.P. one of the least deserving “stars” in baseball cover up one major problem that I’ve already mentioned, Arencibia is not very good.

This brings us to now, and what I am labelling as JP’s historically inept 2013. Just how awful he has been is going largely unnoticed by a far too many Blue Jays fans for my liking. “Historically inept” is just hyperbole you say? Well yeah, but it’s also true. Through 42 games so far this season (not including Wednesday’s game) Arencibia has struck out 54 times, while walking just twice. His K:BB ratio is 27:1. You should pause here for a second to let that sink in. Arencibia is only walking once for every 27(!) times he’s struck out.

That sounds bad…but how bad is it really? Well let’s take a look! For ease of comparison’s sake I’m going to project those numbers over 130 games, approximately what J.P. will (unfortunately) end up playing this year. At his current pace he will strike out 167 times, and walk just 6 times.

Not once, ever, in the history of baseball has a player struck out over 100 times without walking at least 10. NEVER! In fact, only 14 times in the history of the game has a player struck out over 100 times and walked less than 20 times!

If we look at the current Zips projections, Arencibia is expected to finish the season with 155 strike outs and 20 walks. If we give him the benefit of the doubt (can he really increase his walk rate 5 fold for the rest of the season though?) he still merits inclusion on our list of 14, JP’s projected K:BB ratio would actually rank second, his 7.75:1 squeaks in just behind Juan Encarnacion’s ugly 8.07:1

Table via Baseball-Reference’s Play Index

Looking at this table makes Arencibia’s early season escapades that much more unbelievable. The worst ever K:BB ratio is currently held by Juan Encranacion at just over 8:1 and J.P. is currently sporting a rate of 27:1? Yikes.

I am fully aware that strikeouts and walks don’t mean everything, but the sheer ridiculous ratio that J.P. currently sports, combined with his lowly triple slash of .224/.239/.462 (even that buoyed by his ridiculous and unsustainable April power surge), make for one ugly hole in the line up.

What does this all mean for Mr. Arencibia? Well not much. The Blue Jays traded catcher of the future (and likely present given J.P.’s struggles) Travis D’Arnaud to the New York Mets as a part of the R.A. Dickey deal, and the next generation of Blue Jays catching prospects are seemingly a few years away. The Blue Jays did receive Josh Thole in the Dickey deal, and he’s currently raking for AAA Buffalo hitting .336/.411/.496 plus he has experience catching the Knuckleball.

But alas, it seems like the Blue Jays are committed to Henry Blanco as Dickey’s personal catcher, and just as committed (I wish I knew why) to Arencibia as the catcher every other day. So for the near future we will have to stick to our day dreaming of catching platoon in Toronto, and hope that the prodigious patience of teammates Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista (not to mention the sudden resurrection of patience in Adam Lind) somehow rub off on Aaron Cibia.

But in the meantime…who wants to see some dingers?

GIF compliments of me, cause I made it.

March 23, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia (9) hits a solo home run during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

J.P. Arencibia supposedly didn’t let this bother him. In every interview he did over the years he said he knew he was going to be the Blue Jays catcher.

He was right. Mainly because D’Arnaud had more trade value but it doesn’t matter how JPA was right as long he’s right!

When the Blue Jays acquired R.A. Dickey it was assumed that Dickey would have a personal catcher and that Arencibia would never catch him. Arencibia said he was going to work at catching Dickey and hopefully be able to catch him during the regular season. Again Arencibia’s confidence was brushed off.

Luckily for Arencibia, Dickey lives in the same place JP does, Nashville. They were able to work together during the offseason and Arencibia’s hard work payed off as he did a good job catching Dickey in the World Baseball Classic and in Spring Training. So much so that the Blue Jays announced that Dickey wouldn’t have a personal catcher after all and that Arencibia would get to catch Dickey, including opening day. Once again Arencibia was right.

When Arencibia isn’t getting traded or learning to catch a new starter he’s trying to prove he deserves to be the Blue Jays catcher of the future. In all seriousness it’s far from guaranteed.

A lot of Jays fans don’t want Arencibia to be the catcher of the future because as fun as homeruns are he still hasn’t shown the ability to get on base or to even be an adequate defensive catcher yet.

The thing is catchers take longer to develop offensively which could be the case for Arencibia. He really started heating up before his injury last season and he’s been tearing the cover off the ball in Spring Training for whatever that’s worth. And the fact that the Blue Jays feel he can catch Dickey tells you something about his progress playing defense.

Arencibia’s 27 years old now so he’s either going to get better soon or not. He’s either going to be the Blue Jays catcher of the future or the Jays are going to get someone better one of these years. The popular opinion would probably be that he’s not going to get better. But Arencibia hasn’t let popular opinion get in his way yet so why start now?

Jeff Mathis seems to be the only one guaranteed to be on the team as he signed a 2 year extension during the season. The Bluejays could also keep Arencibia and D’arnaud on the team to because D’arnaud can also play 1st base. The Bluejays could rotate the DH spot with Edwin Encarnacion, Arencibia, and D’arnaud. When EE plays first, D’arnaud or Arencibia would DH depending on who catches that day. When EE plays DH, D’arnaud would play 1st and Arencibia would catch.

If the Bluejays need to pinch run for whoever is catching that day they would have the luxury of a 3rd catcher in Jeff Mathis replacing them defensively instead of having to worry about moving players around to other positions to accommodate the pinch running. If Arencibia is catching and gets pinch run for while D’arnaud is playing 1st, D’arnaud could just take over as catcher and one of the bench players could take over at 1st. That’s a lot of versatility for one team to have.

Another great thing about the Bluejays having so much depth at one position is that one of their catchers could be used as trade bait.

Jeff Mathis seems to be the only guaranteed catcher to be on the team not only because of his contract but because back up catchers don’t have a lot of trade value. It is a possibility the Bluejays could use him as a “throw in” in a trade but realistically it’s hard to see any team not agreeing to a trade because the Bluejays refused to include Mathis.

J.P. Arencibia has 2 years of big league experience and despite low batting averages in both seasons he has shown the ability to hit for power in the big leagues with 23 home runs in his rookie season and 18 home runs in just 102 games in 2012. His low on base percentage and poor defensive skills could scare teams and lower his trade value though. When Arencibia has weeks where he is going well with the bat he can really carry a team which is more than you can say about most catchers.

Travis D’arnaud has no big league experience but he is considered the top catching prospect in all of baseball. As mentioned earlier he can also play 1st base. D’arnaud is also projected to be a much better player than J.P. Arencibia both offensively and defensively so believe it or not the Bluejays might actually be able to get more for him than Arencibia.

Whatever choice the Bluejays make with their catching situation whether it’s having versatility with three catchers or the traditional two they’re set up well at that position no matter what.

Jeff Mathis plays against the Orioles on April 24th (Keith Allison, Flickriver.com)

Once you pick your jaw up off the floor and finish scratching your head in a puzzled fashion, the Jeff Mathis extension does, sort of, make a lot of sense. If you somehow hadn’t heard, the Blue Jays have signed the veteran catcher to a two year extension covering 2013 and 2014, in which he’ll earn 1.5 million per year. The deal also includes a club option for 2015, valued at 1.5 million as well.

While Mathis hit .276/.339/.444 (.783 OPS) across parts of eight minor league seasons, it’s become resoundingly clear that the major league version of the catcher is a significantly worse hitter than that. In his 1507 major league plate appearances spanning eight years, he’s hit just .196/.256/.312 (.568 OPS). That’s historically bad, and a significant enough sample size that you can say, with the utmost confidence, he is who we thought he was. Mathis is actually having his best offensive season to date here in 2012, as his 76 wRC+ and .286 wOBA represent career highs. Both are still significantly below league average, which indicates just how bad he is at the plate.

Even so, the team didn’t acquire Mathis for his bat, they desired his ability to play defense and handle a pitching staff. According to a study done in 2011 by Mike Fast, formerly of Baseball Prospectus, Mathis has been above average at framing pitches every year from 2007 through 2011. Framing pitches, in short, is the catcher’s ability to trick an umpire into calling a ball a strike through, among other things, keeping a stiff wrist and subtly pulling your glove closer to the zone as you catch the ball. In total, he saved 19 runs across the five years, and when considering playing time, it came out as 7 runs saved per 120 games. Both figures are above average, but well behind the “elite” defensive catchers such as Jose Molina, who’s saved 73 total runs and 35 per 120 games over that timeframe.

His arm strength is above average, but throughout his career he’s been just league average at catching potential base stealers. Mathis has been significantly better this season, as with a 39% caught stealing rate he’s well above the league average of 26%. The reason behind this drastic change is difficult to surmise. A quick look at J.P. Arencibia’s defensive numbers show a similar trend, so it’s possible the abundance of left handed starters on the staff – who can inherently hold runners closer to first – has been the cause. Perhaps it’s a new technique that bench coach Don Wakamatsu taught the two catchers, but either way, history suggests he’s more of an average thrower than anything spectacular.

While with Los Angeles, Mathis learned under baseball guru Mike Scoscia. The Angels skipper spent 13 years in the major leagues, and was known for his defensive prowess behind the plate. As such, he did his best to impress his knowledge onto the catchers on his roster, and gave favor to those who showed an ability to handle a staff. Scoscia obviously saw that trait in Mathis, as year after year he stole plate appearances from the far superior player in Mike Napoli. As you can see in the table below, there was a method to his madness, as Mathis’ catcher ERA has been better than the team ERA in each of the six seasons he’s seen significant playing time. At this volume of innings, it’s not just a coincidence or statistical anomaly. I don’t know exactly what it means, but it’s definitely something.

The catcher vs team ERA of Jeff Mathis over his professional career (source: ESPN)

In summary, Mathis is a well below average hitter, an average thrower, and a well above average receiver. That’s not necessarily someone you want to pencil into the lineup for 120 games every year, but it’s the ideal skill set for a backup catcher, which is the role the Blue Jays have set in place for Mathis. It’s a huge positive for Toronto as well, as regardless of who the team decides upon for their starting catcher in 2013, they’ll be young, and the knowledge Mathis can pass on from the Scoscia tree of learning over the next two years has value beyond his personal statistics. Despite his offensive short comings, 1.5 million per year seems perfectly fair for both sides.

The question we can now ask is, who will be the Blue Jays starting catcher next season? It was a long shot to begin with, but the Mathis extension all but guarantees that J.P. Arencibia and Travis d’Arnaud will never be sitting in a major league dugout together in months not named September. d’Arnaud’s bat would be wasted at first base, while Arencibia simply doesn’t have enough contact in his swing to be acceptable at a non-catcher position. The Blue Jays number one prospect will be 24 on Opening Day, and with a .914 OPS in Double-A and .975 OPS in Triple-A over the past two years, it’s fair to say he has nothing left to learn down in the minor leagues. An offseason trade has become a necessity, as another year in Triple-A would do nothing for Travis’ trade value. Does the team go with the clubhouse leader and established starter in J.P. Arencibia, or with the top prospect with All-Star upside in Travis d’Arnaud?

Whoever the team decides to part with would likely be a piece in a trade for a starting pitcher. Miami, Pittsburgh, and the Cubs immediately come to mind as potential catcher-needy destinations, and each team has a starter the Blue Jays could and should be looking at, a pair of whom were caught in trade rumors at last month’s deadline. Josh Johnson (MIA) and Matt Garza (CHC) would each be excellent targets, particularly if the team sincerely wants to compete in 2013. James McDonald of Pittsburgh may be a more desirable target for the Blue Jays, however, as the right hander is under control through 2015. The Pirates may see him as a surplus, with former #1 overall pick Gerrit Cole not far away. As crazy as it sounds, this Jeff Mathis extension just made the offseason a whole lot more interesting.

Jul 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

Carlos Villanueva threw a very effective game yesterday, as he changed speeds constantly on the Red Sox and only made one big mistake to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the 2nd inning. Overall, he threw 101 pitches, 65 of them for strikes, and earned his 5th win (with no losses) of the season. To say that he, and Aaron Laffey, have stepped up in the wake of all of the injuries the Jays have faced of late is a major understatement. Both have been stellar, and deserve to be highlighted for their efforts.

Also important to note in this game was the inaugural appearances of both J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon. I don’t know about you, but watching both of those guys help Darren Oliver shut the door on the Red Sox after Villanueva’s stellar start was, well, soothing. Neither got into trouble at all, although Happ did get one friendly call from the umpire at 1B, and neither allowed a hit or a walk. Happ needed only 6 pitches to get 2 outs in the 7th, while Lyon needed only 11 pitches to close the game out in the 9th. (more…)

Here are some other fun facts from tonight’s game:

• After 1839 career plate appearances and 598 games, this was the first multi-homer game of Rajai Davis‘ career
• J.P. Arencibia set a new career-high with six RBI, surpassing his previous high of five set back on April 1, 2011 against Minnesota
• Tonight was just the 17th time in Arencibia’s career that he’s hit fifth in the order
• The Jays scored 14 runs, which were not only a season-high but their most since scoring 16 against the Yankees on July 14, 2011
• The Jays now have 11 home runs in their last three games, and their total of five tonight was their highest in one game since September 30, 2010
• Toronto entered play tied with the Cardinals for fourth in the Majors with 51 home runs, and after five tonight, they’re two back of the Yankees for third-most in the Majors
• All but one of the Jays’ 14 runs came from the bottom half of the batting order
• Yan Gomes homered in just his second MLB game, and after becoming the first Brazilian-born player to play in the Majors last night, he (obviously) became the first Brazilian player ever to hit a big league home run
• Tonight marked the third consecutive outing in which Ricky Romero has walked at least four batters
• Coming into tonight’s game, The Blue Jays pitching staff as a whole led the Majors with 151 walks. After eight more tonight, they still lead the Majors with 159
• As friend of the site @SMcEwen_eh pointed out to me on Twitter, this was the sixth game this season where Jays pitchers collectively issued eight walks
• The Jays’ bullpen entered the game tied for third-worst in the Majors with a collective WAR of zero. Allowing four unnecessary runs tonight certainly won’t help
• After losing the closer’s role, Francisco Cordero tossed his fourth consecutive scoreless inning

- JM

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Entering play on April 19, Arencibia boasted an ugly slash line of .063/.118/.156. He managed just a single and a home run in his first eight games of 2012 for a 2-for-32 clip with one walk. But since then, and somewhat lost in the Jays’ offensive struggles lately, has been a resurgence of sorts at the plate from the 26-year-old.

J.P. Arencibia has been hot at the plate recently. (Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE)

Entering tonight’s game with the Yankees, Arencibia’s average sits at .243, 180 points higher than it was almost one month ago to the day, and his current .699 OPS is a staggering 543 points higher than it was over that same span. While the Jays catcher managed to finish off April strong by going 10-for-32 with three doubles, it’s been his 11 games in May where we’ve seen his extra-base power return and his slugging percentage skyrocket.

So far this month, Arencibia is 13-for-39 (.333) and has managed a 1.007 OPS. He has two walks to five strikeouts, and six of his 13 hits have been for extra bases, including three home runs in his last 10 games; noteworthy considering he had a stretch of 18 contests in April without a homer.

In the last 30 days, Arencbia’s .324 average has been a team-high and his .890 OPS over that span has been second to only Edwin Encarnacion. More importantly, though, after striking out 13 times in his first 35 plate appearances, Arencibia has whiffed only 11 times in 76 plate appearances since then.

While the sample size is, of course, still small, the fact that Arencibia is cutting his strikeouts down because of a career-high contact rate is encouraging, and it should be interesting to keep an eye on him in the months to come.

- JM

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The day began at 10 a.m. at the media sign in gate, where John had arranged for my media credentials. This was where I met Lott for the first time.

A long time reader and admirer of his work (Lott began reporting on baseball for the Post in 2000), I was excited to get a first hand, up close look at how a professional baseball writer does his job. I was also lucky enough to have the opportunity to chat with Lott throughout the day, which allowed me to dip into his vast well of baseball reporting knowledge.

After dropping our stuff off in the press box, we headed down to the Jays locker room. Needless to say, this was quite an experience.

Blue Jays were scattered casually about the large open room. Music blared. The atmosphere was extremely relaxed.

Unfortunately, I was unable (read: unwilling) to snap any pictures in the locker room. It seemed inappropriate considering players were changing all around me. I was, however, able to get some audio clips.

The first player I encountered was J.P. Arencibia. Lott asked Arencbia a few questions and introduced me. Lott described Arencibia as “the media darling,” and it was easy to see why. Arencibia is even more charismatic and well spoken in person than on a television screen. He seemed confident, but not cocky, and gave well thought out, interesting responses to Lott’s questions.

Next up was Brandon Morrow.

Morrow was fresh off a fantastic start against the M’s (Sat. April 28: 6 IP/0 ER/9 K/5 H/0 BB). Lott asked him about his pitch selection and strategy this season.

I was surprised at how engaging Morrow was. On TV, I have found Morrow to be a bit stiff, and often monotone in his dealings with the media. In person, this couldn’t have been further from the truth. Morrow is clearly very analytical, and extremely intelligent.

Our next stop was John Farrell’s office, where about 10 reporters gathered for the managers’ pre-game media scrum. After Farrell finished answering questions, Lott was kind enough to introduce me to Farrell, who for his part, was quite friendly. I felt silly shaking Farrell’s hand, as it dwarfed mine. He is a much bigger man than I had previously realized.

From there, Lott and I headed to the Jays dugout, where we watched players stretch.

Distracted by all of the action surrounding me, I almost didn’t notice Alex Anthopoulos sidle up beside me on the bench. AA was quick to introduce himself (as if I didn’t know who he was!), before the media members in the area gathered around us. AA then answered questions for about half an hour, before Lott and I made our way back up to the press box.

Here is a short clip of Anthopoulos: Alex Anthopoulos: 4/29/12

The press box is a great place to watch a ball game. The view in nice (straight behind home plate), there are televisions for watching replays, a desk and internet hook ups for your laptop and an array of well known and respected reporters around. Here is a pic of my view.

After the game, I followed Lott down to a media room where Farrell briefly addressed a number of reporters. We then went back into the locker room where several of the games key players were scrummed (Brett Lawrie, Henderson Alvarez through an interpreter and Jeff Mathis).

And that was that. I headed home with an extra jump in my step from all of the day’s excitement.

I am extremely grateful to John Lott for generously agreeing to bring me along. I really couldn’t have asked for a better host, and I really learned a lot from just watching him do what he does so well.

Hope you all enjoyed my account of what was an incredibly memorable day!

-SB

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Arencibia’s tweet was influenced by the Blue Jays’ 7-3 win over the Rays last night, when he managed to hit the ball hard twice to third base and once to deep left field but finished the night 0-for-4, bringing his average down to .063 on the season.

- JM

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Catching is an organizational strength for the Blue Jays right now. J.P. Arencibia is about to start his second full season as the starter at the major league level after a solid (though not spectacular) rookie season, Travis d’Arnaud is moving up to Triple-A with a good pedigree on both sides of the ball, and there’s A.J. Jimenez and Carlos Perez, among others, coming up behind them. Plus, Jeff Mathis is gainfully employed by the Blue Jays to back up Arencibia, for reasons that we have yet to determine.

In any case, it’s Arencibia and d’Arnaud that occupy the forefront of any backstop discussion for the Blue Jays. Arencibia is entrenched as the everyday catcher, and it’s assumed that d’Arnaud will promptly mash his way through Las Vegas and be knocking on the door at the Rogers Centre before too long, maybe even during this season. There’s already been some debate on the subject amongst Blue Jays fans: What should the Blue Jays do with these two talented young catchers?

As the spring is the time for idle speculation, let us present the options and, briefly, the case for each of them. I’ll start by putting a positive spin on it, and then look at it more realistically. I may or may not believe any of these things, but they’re all worth considering.

March 6, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher

1) Keep Arencibia

The Spin: Arencibia had a solid rookie season offensively with the Blue Jays. 23 HRs and 78 RBIs are nice stats from a catcher without a lot of experience at the major league level. A hand injury in June hampered his offensive output, and steadily decreasing offensive stats was an aftereffect of that injury. possibly showing some fatigue down the stretch as a young player getting used to the major-league grind. Also, Arencibia has a history of improving the second year at a level, which he did during his minor league career. His defense and handling of the pitching staff can only improve as well.

The Slam: The counting stats obscure a ghastly .282 on-base percentage. And though Arencibia admitted he should probably have taken some time off with the injuries, getting dinged up is a fact of life as a catcher. The major leagues are much more difficult than the minors, and  just because he improved drastically there doesn’t mean he will improve at a higher level.

March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Travis d

2) Keep d’Arnaud

The Spin: d’Arnaud is clearly the more talented of the two.  He had a monstrous split of .311/.371/.542 last year in Double-A New Hampshire last year. He was also named MVP of the Eastern League with the Fisher Cats, and voted the best defensive catcher as well (an oddity, given that Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense is alive and well). Given his history, he’s no more than a year away from being ready for a full-time job.

The Slam: He’s a prospect, and hasn’t proven anything at the major league level. The Blue Jays just broke in a rookie catcher last year, do they want to have to have the pitching staff break in another one so quickly? If the Blue Jays are ready to contend in 2013, will they want to make allowances for d’Arnaud’s adjustment to the bigs?

3) Keep both

The Spin: If d’Arnaud proves to be an asset at the major league level, why can’t we have both? They have the potential to be good offensive catchers. We could rotate them between catcher and first base/DH to keep them fresh. That way, neither get too tired, and we’re insulated from injury if one of them does go down.

The Slam: This is the kind of thing that works way better in theory than practice; in recent years, only Texas has really done this well (with Mike Napoli last year). That’s even more of a load for Toronto’s young catchers to either learn the first base position, or risk their catching skills not being sharp by playing another position or DHing so often. While teams start the year with a platoon, often, the hot hand ends up being played more, and in this case that would decrease the value of one of the two. Additionally, the offensive standards for first base and DH are much higher than catcher- if you think Adam Lind struggled, think of how Arencibia’s bat would play at that position. Yikes.

Thankfully, this is something the Blue Jays don’t need to decide today. We might see d’Arnaud if Arencibia gets injured (because otherwise, we’ll see Mathis, and no one with a functioning brain cell wants to see too much of THAT), so it’ll be what these two accomplish this year that determine the brain trust’s decision going forward. Given Anthopoulos’ love of trades, it’s more than likely he’ll turn one of them into another asset if he believes they’re both major-league capable, given the belief that the Blue Jays may contend in 2013.

I’ll throw it out there for comments, though. What do you all think? Is Arencibia the man going forward? Or will d’Arnaud unseat him?

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