Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher J.A. Happ is carted off the field after Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Desmond Jennings (not pictured) hit him in the head by a line drive during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

An injury like this may have been prevented if MLB instituted Kevlar caps for pitchers.

This is not the first time that the notion was looked at. A similar batted-ball-to-the-head incident occurred to Brandon McCarthy last September. A CT scan revealed that he had an epidural hemorrhage, brain contusion and skull fracture that required emergency surgery. The complications from a head injury in baseball almost lead to the third death in plays sustained during play in Major League Baseball. A 29 year old man’s life was that close to ending prematurely.

So why didn’t Major League Baseball change the rules to protect their players? While it’s true that pitchers did try out a Kevlar-lined cap in the offseason, ultimately they did not allow even the option whether or not to use it this season. This lack of comprehension is not new to the MLB.

As recently as July 2007, a coach was killed during play in a minor league game. Mike Coolbaugh was a first base coach for the Arkansas Travelers until that fateful July evening where he was struck in the head by a foul ball line drive. He was pronounced dead within an hour of the play. He was 35. In the very next offseason Major League Baseball instituted a rule change forcing base coaches to wear helmets, taking place at the beginning of Spring Training 2008.

The spitball was used as a pitch among the majority of Major League Baseball players in the early stages. Usually players would either spit saliva or tobacco juice to both add action to the ball and cover it in a dark tobacco matte, in order to hide the ball on the way to the plate. It was on August 1920 that shortstop Ray Chapman was playing against pitcher Carl Mays that the spitball was used in a lethal manner. Mays threw a spitball covered in tobacco in a poorly-lit Polo Grounds at twilight, hiding the ball from his  Chapman’s vision, plunking him in the head. He died 12 hours later in a hospital. He was 29, just like Brandon McCarthy was at the time of his injury. During the very next offseason, the spitball was banned from baseball, grandfathered in only by those active pitchers who played in the MLB before the ban took place.

Is a pitcher going to have to die while playing a Major League Baseball game before player safety is at the forefront of their objectives? Is someone’s life going to have to be cut down in their prime before they line all pitchers’ hats with Kevlar? Are we, as Blue Jays fans, going to be okay with our players getting injured in catastrophic ways as long as they don’t pay the ultimate price?

Ultimately, it comes down to the fact that this was an accident. Sometimes batted balls that hit the pitcher do little damage to the player, like what happened to Doug Fister during the World Series last year when he got hit in the head by a Gregor Blanco line drive. Happ was unlucky in his endeavor. Hopefully this will get a conversation going about whether or not pitching caps should be lined with $60 Kevlar inserts for all Major League Baseball and Minor League pitchers, or even give the option to the pitchers themselves. It would be wise for professional baseball to see the cost of life drastically outweigh the financial cost to protect their players.

Apr 5, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Josh Johnson (55) during their game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

If you remember Happ’s spot was the 5th spot in the rotation.

With Johnson taking Happ’s spot you could argue the 5th spot is now the 1st spot because starting Friday the Toronto Blue Jays rotation will have Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and Brandon Morrow pitching back to back to back.

That’s more like it.

The new rotation order helps the Blue Jays immediately because the one and only King Felix will be pitching for the Seattle Mariners on Friday. So the Blue Jays will have Josh Johnson pitching against him instead of Happ. Ace against ace is always better than ace against 5th starter.

The Mariners are also going to be the first victims of the Jays having their 3 best starters pitch 3 days in a row.

And don’t overlook the value of having R.A. Dickey pitching after Johnson. It’ll be hard for teams to make the adjustment from facing the power arm of Josh Johnson to facing Dickey’s knuckleball the next day.

The Blue Jays having nothing but aces on the mound for consecutive games can also help start win streaks or stop losing streaks a lot quicker.

The Jays big 3 in the rotation haven’t been at their best yet. That’s one of the reasons the Jays are 10-18. If they all start pitching like they’re capable of they should all pitch deep into games every night so the Blue Jays will be able to give the bullpen a lot of rest.

The rotation switch means Happ will pitch after Buehrle. In a perfect world you’d like to be able to split up the lefties but they’re both very different pitchers so it’s not like the Jays would be giving teams the same look back to back days. Buehrle and Happ can also keep games competitive and are capable of pitching deep into games which is all you can ask from your 4th and 5th starter.

Johnson will have to pitch after Happ now which doesn’t really give him any extra advantage the way Dickey and Morrow have an advantage because of the pitcher that starts the day before them. But whatever, Johnson can take advantage of the fact that he’s Josh Johnson.

Unfortunately the Blue Jays have 2 off days in the same week in the middle of the May so the rotation order is bound to have to be changed again soon. Hopefully the Jays can find a way to keep their 3 aces pitching back to back even with the off days. For however long it lasts it’s going to be fun seeing the Jays have Johnson, Dickey and Morrow pitching back to back to back.

It’s not going to be fun for the teams that have to face all the Jays aces on consecutive days.

Good luck to the rest of the Major League Baseball! You’re going to need it.

Sep 27, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero (24) looks on from the dugout against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Yankees 6-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t seem possible that there could ever be an “elephant in a room” that gets talked about a lot but here we are.

Ricky Romero was awful last year although he did manage a good start every now and then. He hasn’t been much better in spring training even though it’s almost impossible to judge a player from spring training. If you’ve been watching the Blue Jays before the 2012 season then you know Ricky is more than capable of being a 5th starter.

J.A. Happ seemed to be great during his time with the Blue Jays last season. I say seemed because it’s hard to say if he really looked great or if it just looked that way because the rest of the rotation was bad practically every game. Either way Happ can handle the role of 5th starter. He’s also looked much better than Ricky this spring training, again for whatever that’s worth.

The reason Happ’s not the Blue Jays 5th starter is that to most people, most importantly Blue Jays management Happ’s spring training performance and his 2 months with the Blue Jays don’t overshadow Ricky Romero’s career before 2012. If you’re a believer in the “what have you done for me lately” argument then it’s understandable that Happ would be your choice.

Then again there’s no debate that Ricky at his best is better than Happ at his best so the Blue Jays starting the season with Ricky is easily a risk worth taking.

If Ricky does show he shouldn’t be the 5th starter there’s always the possibility he could work through his problems properly in the minor leagues. If Ricky did get his act together in the minor leagues and became ready for a call up it would be like the Blue Jays acquiring a mid-rotation starter during the season.

Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

July 21, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

There have been many surprising performances from the Jays as a whole this season. I don’t think anyone expected Edwin Encarnacion to become the power house he is, and I doubt anyone guessed that Aaron Laffey would become a very important piece of the rotation for a good chunk of the season. But, if there’s one thing we all expected, it was for the Jays to lean heavily on Carlos Villanueva when the going got tough. And that’s exactly what has happened this season, as he continues to earn every single cent he’s making this season.

Carlos Villanueva is the chameleon of the Jays staff. So far in 2012, he has started 5 games, finished 9, and pitched in a total of 27, good for 61.2 innings. His stats over those innings? A 2.92 ERA, 1.281 whip, and a 6 – 0 record. He’s allowing a career low 7 hits per 9 innings, and is averaging 9.5 Ks per 9. Over his 5 games started, he has allowed 3 ER twice, 0 ER twice, and 2 ER once as he has worked at least 5 innings each time. Talk about earning your pay! (more…)

Jul 4, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher

Carlos Villanueva threw a very effective game yesterday, as he changed speeds constantly on the Red Sox and only made one big mistake to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the 2nd inning. Overall, he threw 101 pitches, 65 of them for strikes, and earned his 5th win (with no losses) of the season. To say that he, and Aaron Laffey, have stepped up in the wake of all of the injuries the Jays have faced of late is a major understatement. Both have been stellar, and deserve to be highlighted for their efforts.

Also important to note in this game was the inaugural appearances of both J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon. I don’t know about you, but watching both of those guys help Darren Oliver shut the door on the Red Sox after Villanueva’s stellar start was, well, soothing. Neither got into trouble at all, although Happ did get one friendly call from the umpire at 1B, and neither allowed a hit or a walk. Happ needed only 6 pitches to get 2 outs in the 7th, while Lyon needed only 11 pitches to close the game out in the 9th. (more…)

July 18, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Brandon Lyon (37) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the sixth inning at PETCO Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

On first glance, I have to admit that the Jays are sending a whole lot of talent over to the Astros in return for a pitching upgrade. It’s far more prudent, however, to look through the entire package before jumping to conclusions. For this year, I absolutely love this deal. It gives the Jays a #4 caliber pitcher who can chew up a lot of innings and support the current staff. The Jays also improve the pen a great deal by simply dealing Francisco Cordero, but get even better since they can replace him with Brandon Lyon. Finally, the Jays improve a great deal on the bench and in the OF with the replacement of Ben Francisco with Travis Snider. As I proposed yesterday, all of this makes the Jays younger, and much better for the remainder of 2012.

For this season, it’s no contest, the Jays flat out win this deal. But what about the ever after?

Before we touch on anything else, we need to know the age, cost, and controllability of each player.

To the Toronto Blue Jays: (more…)