March 28, 2013; Clearwater, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after he scored a run during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Networks Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

But 2012 saw the Tampa Bay Rays continue to shine, the Baltimore Orioles becoming relevant again and the Yankees being the Yankees…winners. Boston took the year off but you know they could be in the hunt again with the bank roll they have to play with. The season did show glimpses of being the best offence in baseball. When Jose Bautista got hurt it signaled the end for this team. Edwin Encarnacion tried valiantly to carry the offense on his back but it wasn’t enough. Couple that with Ricky Romero‘s sudden fall from grace and you have a pretty decent team with horrid results.

Date: April 9, 2012
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. YOUR Toronto Blue Jays
Weather: Very Dome-y with girders seen in the sky….

Perhaps this heartbreaking loss was a sign of things to come. We led 2-1 going into the 9th. Henderson Alvarez went 6 solid, giving up one run. Our new power closer, Sergio Santos comes in and gives up 3 in the ninth to blow the save and give the Red Sox the lead. We couldn’t do the same against Alfredo “The Devil” Aceves. A last minute loss that truly was a precursor to the season to follow. True heartbreak…bring on 2013!

Staring at the screen as I throw out this last bit if history I must say it has been pretty cool. Sometimes we need more than our memories to remind us of all the craziness that has gone down with this Blue Jays organization. For all the ups and downs this team has been through, they have never really bottomed out. We seem to always have some semblance of competitiveness (don’t count the ’70s…we wuz just brand new, wee birds then).

That is the overlying factor I have taken from this experience. We, for the most part, play hard. Play a full nine innings. Not many mail it in and that says something about the culture that has always been a part of the Blue Jays brand. Success has been more fleeting than anything but it makes you appreciate exactly what it takes to win it all. We are lucky. We have two trophies. There are still many teams without even one.

So enjoy the Home Opener: 2013. Take in the grace, the spectacle that could be the beginning of another special Blue Jays season. I hope you truly immerse yourself in the game the way you used to…or have always wanted to. Let’s…Play…Ball.

Sep 6, 2011; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos talks to media before the game against the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 14-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

In season, we saw the arrival of Colby Rasmus and the first number retired in team history: Roberto Alomar‘s number 12. We may not have been too competitive on the field but the fans bought into AA’s plan to build for 2013 and beyond. To be sustainable. He brought the minor league system from 25th best to 3rd best according to Baseball America. He drafted well and the prospect pool started to deepen. We, as fans, were hoping for the best but realistic that to fix what J.P. Ricciardi had left would take some time. A new philosophy always needs to bleed into the fabric of a team over time. So the 2011 Home Opener was a celebration of not only a new season but a new feel to our beloved Blue Jays.

Date: April 1, 2011
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
Game: Minnesota Twins vs. YOUR Toronto Blue Jays
Weather:…there is no weather inside a dome…ain’t figured that out yet? Hehe

We would see the maturing process of Ricky Romero reach it’s pinnacle in 2011 as he is named the number 1 starter for this team. With Romero and Brandon Morrow we saw two fixtures in the rotation. The next three were a mish mash of Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Henderson Alvarez, Jesse Litch et al. The offence seemed primed for a great season with Jose Bautista blowing the cover off the ball, Adam Lind showing early promise and Brett Lawrie looking to impress. The pieces were falling into place at certain positions.

The game was a laugher from the start. We tallied fours runs in the first off a resurgent Carl Pavano and added six more before the start of the sixth. Romero was tossing donuts and looking every bit the number 1 he was designated to be. He would go 6.1 innings, 3 runs given up but only 1 earned and 7 strikeouts. Add to that the killer night of J.P. Arencibia (3-4, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, including 2 home runs). The game was well in hand as we trounced the Twins 13-3.

Coming off the type of surprise season the team had in 2010 this looked to be a great omen…an omen that went in the crapper as we finished 81-81…a mediocre line but underneath that failure to win were the seeds being planted of a winning team. We just needed to be patient. With a few more moves over the off-season this looked like a team being built properly, with no excuses. All we needed was to wait…

Much of the focus has been on who the Blue Jays should target this offseason to sure up those holes. While that’s obviously important, another aspect is what the Blue Jays should target this offseason, and by that I mean the contracts. Toronto has one of the best farm systems in baseball when it comes to young pitching, and while they’re not yet knocking on the door, they are on their way. When debating what kind of commitments a team should make to talent outside the organization, they should first look at what’s in the pipeline. Think of it like grocery shopping; before going out and spending your money, it’s wise to look at what you currently have in the cupboard, and how long it might last you.

As you can see below, I’ve created a chart with seasons (split into spring and summer, representing roughly April and July) on the X-axis, and starting pitchers on the Y-axis. The only pitchers present are those currently in the organization who I feel have the potential to be above average starters in the American League East, and will establish themselves within the time restraints. Therefore, while Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire (among others) could be viewed by some as MLB-ready contributors, I’m not of the belief they should be relied upon for more than spot starts at this point in time. The blue bars within the chart are representative of the timeline, between the beginning of 2013 and the end of 2016, in which the pitchers can or will be in the major leagues. For present major leaguers, such as Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it’s the years they are currently under contract, with the darkest blue representing an option year. For prospects, the timeline begins when, by my rough estimation, they’ll be ready to contribute in Toronto’s rotation.

As it stands, the Blue Jays currently have four pitchers with the potential to be above average starters available to start in spring training. That number increases to six in the summer, when Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek should be making their way back from Tommy John surgery. The pitcher pool grows to seven at the start of 2014, as Sean Nolin, who threw over 100 dominant innings between High-A and Double-A last year, should be major league ready. By mid-2014, the first wave of elite pitching prospects could be surfacing in Toronto, as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino should move quickly over the next season and a half. In 2015, the pitcher pool reaches its peak at ten names, as Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna make their arrival, while Happ becomes eligible for free agency.

It’s obviously doubtful that all five prospects I mentioned will reach Toronto when I estimate, and even then, as we saw with Drabek and Alvarez over the past two years, there’s no guarantee they’ll live up to expectations when they do. If two or three of those five stick as above average major league starters, the organization will have done an excellent job of player development, and both front office and fan base alike should be jubilant. However, when you combine that prospect quintet with the established regulars and the trio that falls somewhere in between, the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape long term.

On the other hand, if this team wants to contend now, serious changes need to occur. Having just four potentially above average starters ready for the first three-to-four months of 2013 is woefully insufficient, particularly when you consider how poorly two of the four (Romero and Alvarez) pitched for a majority of 2012. Be it through free agency or trade, the Blue Jays need to find a high end pitcher. In the chart below, I’ve added “Pitcher A”, a new acquisition who is signed through at least 2016 (i.e. a four-plus year deal).

The immediate rotation is substantially improved, and the 2014 pitching staff has significantly more depth and versatility. Things begin to clog up in 2015, however, as even with Happ no longer in the organization, the number of potential major league starters balloons to 11. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative, as while 11 pitchers for five spots seems precarious, the reality is, at least two or three of those pitchers are likely to suffer a serious arm injury at some point over the next three years. That’s just the way baseball is; there’s no way around it. But what happens if one of those arm injuries happens in the near future? I pray it doesn’t occur, and am knocking on wood as I write this, but what happens if Brandon Morrow were to suffer a season ending injury in May? For the next three months, you’d be resting your playoff hopes on the shoulders of Romero, “Pitcher A”, Happ, Alvarez, and Chad Jenkins. That’s an unsettling feeling, and is why “Pitcher B” enters the equation in the chart below.

Finding a good pitcher on a one year deal is easier than you might imagine. Names like Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and even R.A. Dickey have been bantered about in trade talks, while someone like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy may seek a one year deal in free agency to re-establish their value. Whoever he is, “Pitcher B” considerably improves the 2013 rotation, pushing Henderson Alvarez to Triple-A as the invaluable sixth starter. In the second half, the starting pitcher pool has grown to eight names, which is exactly the type of depth a team needs if they hope to make a push for the postseason. The other added bonus to a acquiring a second pitcher on a one year deal is that in 2014, only Romero, Morrow, and “Pitcher A” would have guaranteed salaries. J.A. Happ is non-tenderable if he were to disappoint, while all of the young guys/prospects save Drabek have three options (he has two). Depth, controllability, and flexibility are three of the most important factors when building a pitching staff, and with the scenario I laid out above, the Blue Jays would have a nice balance of all three over the next four seasons.

There’s no doubt that Alex Anthopoulos is actively looking for help for the pitching staff. But, when his moves include adding veterans like Jamie Moyer, Chris Jakubauskas, and the ever fragile Shawn Hill, you know that he is simply not finding what he’s looking for on any front, whether it’s the trade front or the promotion candidates. The former are likely too pricey or not under control for a long enough period to be worthwhile, and the latter don’t seem ready for the challenge.

I’ll attempt to sift through the multitude of options the Jays are facing when it comes to adding depth and talent to a rotation that has faced a lot of adversity of late. Of course, this list will only apply if the Jays deem themselves to be buyers. The list of 5 I’ve come up with will be in no certain order. Some of these will be long shots, while others will be viable. You be the judge!

(all salary info below obtained from Cot’s Baseball Contracts)

1. Jason Vargas, LHP-SEA, 29 years old (more…)

Mar. 5, 2012; Lakeland, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez (27) throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

While Henderson Alvarez is a household name in Toronto today, things were very different at this time last year. After taking a huge step forward in 2009, Alvarez produced a 1.46 WHIP, 0.80 HR/9, and an ugly .300 opponent average in 2010, taking the shine off his respectable 4.33 ERA. Expectations were extremely low entering 2011. After ranking 9th and 5th in the system entering 2010 by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America respectively, Alvarez fell to 16th according Baseball Prospectus in 2011, and Baseball America dropped him outside their top 10.

Despite his diminutive size (listed generously at 6’1”, 200 lbs), Alvarez has seen his fastball improve significantly over the past two seasons. After sitting 87-90 mph only two years ago, Alvarez now pitches at 92-94 mph with his four seam fastball, averaging an impressive 93.3 mph and touching 97 mph. Alvarez relies upon the pitch heavily, throwing it a staggering 62.9% of the time in 2011. In addition to the four seam fastball, he also works a two seam/sinker hybrid pitch at a similar velocity. By taking only 1-2 mph off the pitch, Alvarez is able to generate an additional 2-3 inches of vertical break with significant arm-side run. Despite accounting for only 10.1% of his pitches thrown in 2011, the pitch is an important piece of his repertoire, as he utilizes it to induce weak contact, particularly against right handed batters.

To back up the fastballs, Alvarez features two offspeed pitches that he throws aggressively in two-strike counts. In 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2 counts, he throws the pitches 40%, 34%, 56%, and 48% of the time respectively. The changeup is at least a plus pitch, and could realistically be argued as plus-plus. The pitch comes out on a plane similar to his fastballs, but the bottom falls out as it approaches the plate. Beyond the vertical break, the pitch has excellent velocity separation, averaging 85.1 mph in 2011, roughly 8-9 mph slower than his fastballs. His slider has flashed some potential, but Alvarez is still very inconsistent with the pitch. That inconsistency is directly measureable in velocity, as his sliders were clocked as high as 88 mph, and as low as 80 mph in 2011. The pitch has nice two plane movement, but with the slider accounting for only 10.6% of pitches thrown in 2011, Alvarez is obviously not fully confident with it just yet.

Scouts and executives had seen the potential in Alvarez –- he was invited to represent the world in the MLB Futures game on two occasions -– and in 2011, the numbers finally began to agree with the scouting reports. Alvarez began the year on the minor league disabled list, which delayed his season debut until early May. As part of his “rehab assignment”, Alvarez made two starts with the Dunedin Blue Jays, before receiving his official assignment to Double-A New Hampshire. He made 14 starts with the Fisher Cats, having the best statistical season of his career. In 88 innings with the club, Alvarez pitched to a 2.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.75 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, and 1.64 GO/AO. This newfound success earned him a promotion to the Blue Jays, where he not only held his own, but actually excelled. Alvarez made 10 starts with Toronto (totaling 63.2 innings), with a 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.65 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, and 1.75 GO/AO.

His 63.2 innings exceeded MLB’s restrictions for rookie eligibility, and therefore is no longer considered a prospect. Regardless, Alvarez still received extremely high praise from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. In each of his team top 11 prospect articles, he ranks the organizations Top 10 talents 25 and under. In the Toronto Blue Jays edition, Alvarez ranked 4th on the list, behind only Brett Lawrie, Travis d’Arnaud, and Jake Marisnick.

With no major offseason additions to the rotation, the pressure will be on for Alvarez to maintain or improve his 2011 performance moving forward. Projection systems are cautiously optimistic with Alvarez. On the low end are the PECOTA and ZIPS systems, who expect a 5.50 ERA/1.51 WHIP and 4.65 ERA/1.33 WHIP respectively. While on the surface these seem unreasonable, they’re more understandable when considering how the systems make their determinations. Alvarez has a total of 152 innings above A-ball in his career, so while he had success in 2011, the history isn’t there. Obviously, he’s going to be heavily penalized by systems that rely upon historical data, such as these two.

On the other end of the spectrum are RotoChamp, MLB.com, fan submitted data at FanGraphs.com, and my own personal projection. The biggest commonality amongst the four projections is an improvement in the strikeout rate to varying degrees. Alvarez’ stuff is too good to have a league average (or worse) strikeout rate, and while he’s never been a big strikeout guy, he’s also never had a K/9 below 6.25 at any minor league level. Alvarez is also only turning 22 in April, so there is clearly room for improvement. The other point the four projections agree upon is a slight decline in walk rate. An aggressive demeanor will always keep his BB/9 low, but as Major League hitters see Alvarez for a second or third time, they may hold back on the offspeed pitches just a little bit more.

Alvarez has carried last season’s success through to Spring Training, pitching to a 1.64 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 8.18 K/9 in his 11 official innings (not including a dominant 7 inning, two-hit shutout performance in a minor league game on Thursday). A year ago, Henderson Alvarez was starting in High-A Dunedin. Now, with the fourth spot in the rotation all but formally locked up, he appears due to make his season debut in front of 50,000-plus fans on April 9th –- the home opener against the Boston Red Sox. With playoff baseball in Toronto still more of a dream than a reality, there’s no bigger game on the schedule for Blue Jays fans than the home opener, especially given this year’s opposition. One year can change it all.

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March 2, 2012; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Dustin McGowan (29) poses for a portrait during photo day at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

In a move that absolutely no one saw coming, including the club’s PR department according to Mike Wilner on Twitter, Dustin McGowan and the Blue Jays have agreed on a two-year contract extension at a salary of $1.5 million per. The deal also includes a $4 million club option for the 2015  season.

The timing of the move is most surprising, considering the team was far from being forced into such a decision and that McGowan, a first-round pick by the Blue Jays almost 12 years ago, has pitched a total of 21 innings in the last three years.

That being said, and assuming that the McGowan’s new deal confirms that he is in fact healthy, the Jays have potentially saved themselves money by locking up a once-promising right-hander at a very team-friendly salary. Making $600,000 this season, McGowan was scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, and would have been in a good bargaining position with teams if he was to have a successful 2012 season. Those are some big ifs, though, to bank on a 30-year-old with a severe injury history to not only stay healthy, but throw the best season of his career.

At any rate, the money is far from the concern with McGowan’s contract, but rather the roster spot that he will now occupy until the end of the 2014 season. With McGowan in the fold, along with Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, the Jays now have 60% of their rotation nearly set in stone for the next three years.

The Jays, however, have perhaps the most star-studded lineup of pitching prospects in the Majors, a group that is barreling closer to The Show every day. True, not all of them are going to play for the Jays, but surely Alex Anthopoulos, a GM who values flexibility and alternative options more than any other, would want to keep as much of his starting rotation open as possible going forward given that he has such an impressive assortment of pitching talent on the way.

As soon as this season, a considerable number of pitching prospects are close to knocking on the door; what I would call the first wave. Henderson Alvarez has already been tabbed the Jays’ No. 4 starter, but Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins are all within striking distance in the higher levels of the minors.

Then there’s an entire second wave of guys that will all begin the 2012 campaign at A-ball or higher, like Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez and Asher Wojciechowski, followed by a third wave of hurlers in the lower minors like Adonys Cardona, Daniel Norris, Kevin Comer and John Stilson. Needless to say, the Jays have quite the sustainable feeding system to their rotation, a rotation that is already going to get crowded at the end of this season, let alone in 2013 or 2014.

McGowan’s contract, though, is far from an albatross and his occupying of a roster spot won’t handcuff the Jays in anything they do going forward. Whether it’s pulling the trigger on a trade, pursuing free-agent starter or giving a youngster with a high ceiling a shot, McGowan certainly won’t stand in the way of the right player or the right opportunity.

In the meantime,  however, Anthopoulos has stockpiled yet another pitcher in McGowan, one that could develop into an asset for the club even as a back-end starter. It’s obviously hard to understand the timing and reasoning for the deal, but it’s also just as hard to understand why this contract could be viewed as a bad idea at all for the Blue Jays.

-JM

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Their stats and league rankings:

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In case you missed the telecast or were at the game, here’s a complete rundown of everything Anthopoulos touched on, to get you through until tomorrow.

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