Murphy pitching for his high school team, Redlands East Valley (The Press-Enterprise, Mark Zaleski)

Name: Griffin Murphy

Position: Left Handed Pitcher

Date of Birth: 1/16/1991 (22)

Acquired: Selected in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft ($800,000 USD)

High School: Redlands East Valley (Highland, California)

College: Had commitment to San Diego

Height/Weight: 6’3”/200 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/L

Awards and Accomplishments:

• Ranked 27th on 2012 Top 30 prospects list
• 2010 Rawlings 1st Team All-American
• 2010 California All Region 1st Team

2012 Statistics and Analysis

1-2, 39.1 IP, 26 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 13 BB, 44 K
1.83 ERA (2.51 FIP), 0.99 WHIP, 10.07 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 1.03 GO/AO

The story of Murphy’s season was an unbelievable stretch of dominance between July 11th and August 19th. After allowing two earned runs and five hits over just 1.1 innings of work on July 5th, Murphy would allow a total of zero earned runs over his next ten appearances, totaling 25 innings. He allowed nine hits and walked just eight, while striking out 30 batters. The scoreless streak ended in his final game with Bluefield, as he allowed three runs in 2.2 innings. The Blue Jays handed him a much deserved and long overdue promotion to Vancouver, where he got his feet wet over three appearances.

Scouting Report

Delivery Mechanics

There are some mechanical flaws in Murphy’s delivery. His shoulder can get ahead of his arm on the release, leading to added stress on the elbow. He has a strong lower half and uses it well as he drives to the plate, but his front (right) knee will lock as he strides which can lead to balance and control issues. He comes from a high 3/4, nearly overhand delivery, and while the arm speed is good, there is a bit of effort there as a result of the arm drag.

Pitch Arsenal Breakdown

Murphy features a very traditional three pitch repertoire, working a curveball and changeup off of a fastball that has received above average grades. The velocity is fringe-plus, as while he has shown the ability to touch 93 and 94 miles per hour, he more consistently sits in the 89-92 range. It’s possible that if he were converted to relief full time and used in one inning bursts, the velocity would begin to sit in the low to mid nineties, but until the Blue Jays utilize him in such a way, we can’t be sure. Murphy commands the fastball very well, consistently pounding down in the zone. It helps make up for the merely average movement on the pitch, as despite a high 3/4 arm slot, Murphy doesn’t generate very much sink on the pitch.

The two offspeed pitches are in the fringe-average to average range, but could eventually grade as solid-average (slightly above average) as he continues to develop and find more consistency, particularly on the command side of things. There isn’t a whole lot of horizontal movement with Murphy’s pitches, as he uses his delivery to try and get on top of the ball and create as much of a downward plane as possible. This meshes with his 12-to-6 curveball, which shows nice shape and has a lot of depth. Troubles with his release point can lead to shoddy command and more loop than bite, making the pitch easy to pick up and lay off, but these problems are correctable. Murphy’s changeup really sinks at the plate and he hides it well thanks to his quick arm action, so he should be able to handle himself against right handed batters moving forward.

Projection

The perfect world projection for Griffin Murphy would be a 7th inning reliever who can handle both left handed and right handed batters.

2013 Outlook, Risk, and ETA

At 22 years old on Opening Day, Murphy really needs to make some moves over the next two seasons. He should open the season in Single-A Lansing, and as I discussed on the Left Handed Pitcher primer, I expect he’ll be used in tandem with some of the younger arms in order to protect them from being overworked at the beginning of the year. An assignment and workload such as this could boost his inning total from the 39.1 he had in 2012 up to roughly 80 innings in 2013 between Lansing and High-A Dunedin. The building of arm strength and frequent repetitions would do wonders for the development of his curveball and changeup, and could allow him to cruise from Double-A all the way to the majors in 2014 if moved to a late inning relief role. The risk is medium-high with Murphy, as while he has produced impressive numbers and features three potentially average or better pitches, he still hasn’t seen full season ball.

In terms of page views and feedback (both positive and negative, but thankfully mostly the former), the series was one of the most popular things I’ve done in my two-ish years of writing about the Blue Jays. As such, I’ve decided to break down the system once again, and hopefully another year of experience and knowledge will make the list that much more thorough and interesting to the readers.

The seventh and final part of the series will look at left handed pitchers, perhaps the most unusual position in all of baseball. As Barry Zito displayed during the MLB playoffs, when coming from the left side, smarts and deception can be just as valuable as raw stuff. Left handed pitchers almost always find themselves in demand, as even when they’ve seen their stuff significantly diminished, there’s always the lefty specialist role that every team needs to fill. The bane of Adam Lind, Randy Choate, is an excellent example, as despite racking up just 20-50 innings every year, he still finds a team willing to pay him a million dollars a year to do it. Hopefully, the left handed pitcher prospects in the Blue Jays system can be significantly better than LOOGYs, however.

• Top left handed pitcher prospect to reach MLB (last 5 years): Ricky Romero
• Left handed pitchers in 2012 Top 30: 3
• Left handed pitcher WAR leaders in MLB (last 5 years): Ricky Romero (10.4), Brett Cecil/Scott Downs (3.6)

The King in the North

Justin Nicolino – 2012 team: Single-A Lansing
10-4, 124.1 IP, 112 H, 34 ER, 6 HR, 21 BB, 119 K
2.46 ERA (2.54 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 8.61 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 1.64 GO/AO

Nicolino pitching for the Lansing Lugnuts in April 2012 (Image courtesy MLBProspectPortal.com)

NOTE: Just a day after writing this section, Nicolino was traded to the Miami Marlins. While he’ll no longer be under consideration for my top 30 prospects ranking starting next week, removing him would too drastically alter the shape of this primer. So, enjoy, Marlins fans?

Justin Nicolino was the picture of consistency last season. From April through the end of August, he appeared in five or six games each and every month, never missing a start. Furthermore, his month-by-month ERAs ranged from 0.00 (in April), to 4.28 (July). At his best, he was untouchable. At his worst, he was an average pitcher. You can break it down even further; after Nicolino was separated from Aaron Sanchez and given his own spot in the rotation on June 16th, he made 16 starts, and 15 of those 16 were for five innings or more. Beyond just the strength of his statistics, every time Nicolino took to the mound, he gave his team a good chance to win, and gave his bullpen some much deserved rest. From a 20 year old pitcher in Single-A, that’s remarkable.

The reasoning behind Nicolino’s surprising polish and maturity is simple; he learned how to be good when he was a bad pitcher. While Nicolino has good height at 6-foot-3, he doesn’t have a ton of muscle mass, weighing in around 170 pounds. Incredibly, that’s a significant improvement upon high school, when he may have cracked 150 pounds soaking wet. The 16/17 year old Nicolino was struggling to touch 85 miles per hour, so he forced himself to learn how to pitch, not just throw, far earlier than most prospects. He practiced changing speeds, moving balls out of the swing plane, doubling up on pitch and location, and scraping the edges of the plate for much needed called strikes.

It wasn’t until he turned 18 that he finally began to see some muscle development and bulk, and suddenly he was finding the high 80’s with relative ease. Now 20 years old, Nicolino can get his fastball up to 88-92 miles per hour consistently, while still maintaining the pinpoint control and command he learned when he was younger. The pitch has some arm side run to it, which helps make up for the presently solid-average velocity.

Nicolino’s best pitch is his changeup, which further protects his fastball and allows the velocity to play up even more. He throws it in the high 70’s (roughly 10-12 mph of separation from his fastball), and has excellent arm speed. It fades down and away from right handed batters with circle-changeup movement, and Nicolino has shown impressive feel for the pitch. It could be argued that the change is already a plus pitch on the Major League level, and could grade even higher as he continues to mature as a pitcher. Without question, it’s the best changeup in the system. Rounding out the repertoire is a curveball that has flashed above average potential with good break and tight rotation, but is still lacking consistent form.

His command and control is also the best in the system. Nicolino is an expert at pitch sequencing and his baseball intelligence is off the charts. After seeing batters, he quickly makes adjustments for their second and third plate appearances, using his strengths to target and expose their weaknesses. He’s going to find himself in Dunedin next spring, and he should continue to find success as he ascends the minor league level. A stop in New Hampshire next summer is all but guaranteed, and Nicolino is on track to be the first of the Lansing Three to see Toronto – perhaps as early as the summer of 2014.

The Question Mark

Daniel Norris – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
2-4, 42.2 IP, 58 H, 40 ER, 4 HR, 18 BB, 43 K
8.44 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.78 WHIP, 9.07 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 1.26 GO/AO

Norris pitching for the Bluefield Blue Jays in the summer of 2012 (Image via YourVanCs.com)

Just about everything that was said about Matt Dean and Jacob Anderson on the corner infield and corner outfield primers respectively can be repeated here. Norris was a 2011 draft pick who was signed to an above slot bonus (2 million). He made his professional debut with Bluefield in 2012, and despite receiving excellent grades across the board for his stuff, he crashed and burned in the Appalachian League. The difference is, with Dean and Anderson, they were very raw, and some early career struggles were expected. That’s not quite the case with Norris. In Tennessee, he pitched for the highly regarded Science Hill high school, and received a substantial amount of innings in a competitive environment. I was hoping/expecting he’d start his career in Lansing, but when I saw the Bluefield assignment, I thought he would breeze through short season ball. That didn’t happen, and given how hard and consistently the rookie league hitters pounded Norris, there are some serious questions about him moving forward.

The questions are less about the stuff and more about the mechanics, which were a problem during his high school career as well. Norris has a complex windup, which has lead to consistent inconsistency with the delivery. His timing gets thrown off and his pitching arm lags behind, leading to a late release point and pitches peppering the upper half of the zone. Norris is supremely athletic and an excellent student of the game, so if anyone can get past mechanical woes, it’s him. Norris works from a straight 3/4 arm slot, and while his arm action is good, there’s some effort there. It’s not enough that you need to start throwing the reliever label around, but it’s something to monitor, particularly if he undergoes velocity fluctuations like he did throughout 2012.

At times, Norris will pitch 89-92, while other times he’ll get it up to 93-95 miles per hour. Regardless of the pitch speed, the movement is excellent, as Norris will throw it with sink as well as with two-seam fastball action. When his mechanics are smooth he shows good fastball command, but when he falls apart, it goes downhill quickly. Norris has two potentially plus offspeed pitches in his curveball and changeup. The curve is thrown in the upper 70’s, and he has flashed some very tight spin and late break when mechanically sound. Other times it gets loopy, and he throws it in the dirt more often than not. The changeup was advanced coming out of high school and continued to improve despite his poor season overall. It has straight sink and is thrown between 80 and 83 mph, with sneaky arm speed. Norris will throw a slider as well, and it shows some tilt, but it can take away from his curveball as the two can start to blend together and act like a slurve.

The Blue Jays now find themselves in an interesting predicament with Norris. He was widely considered one of the top prep arms during the 2011 draft, and the idea of sending him out for a second year of short season ball must leave a very bad taste in the mouths of the development guys, poor numbers or not. The fact that he managed to throw over 40 innings and that his strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were strong may be enough for the front office to decide Single-A Lansing is the best course of action, and I completely agree. There are plenty of reasons to hold prospects back, but coddling a top arm because you spend a lot of money on him and his numbers weren’t great isn’t one of them. If Norris is as good as he was expected to be and that we all continue to hope he’ll be, he will figure things out. Wasting another year in short season isn’t going to accomplish anything.

On the Rise

Sean Nolin – 2012 team(s): High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire
10-0, 101.1 IP, 81 H, 23 ER, 7 HR, 27 BB, 108 K
2.04 ERA (2.91 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 9.59 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.93 GO/AO

Sean Nolin (RIGHT) poses with his Dunedin teammate, infielder Kevin Nolan, in June (Eddie Michels, Toronto Sun)

Back-to-back impressive seasons have moved Nolin firmly onto the prospect radar, as the continued refinement of his stuff and command have seen his profile rise from a potential number five starter or swing man, up to a potential number three or four starter. A sixth round pick back in that bountiful 2010 draft, Nolin had a shaky short season debut with Auburn, but made palpable strides with Lansing in 2011. He carried over that success to Dunedin (and subsequently New Hampshire) in 2012, and had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the organization. With New Hampshire eliminated from postseason contention, he returned to Dunedin to close out the year, starting the D-Jays’ final playoff game, a 3-0 defeat. The only negative of Nolin’s year was a strained back that cost him nearly two months between early June and late July.

Nolin has a big, durable frame at 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds, and he uses the strength in his lower half well through his delivery, as he drives towards the plate. His arm slot is overhand, which is further benefitted by his height, and makes it really surprising that Nolin has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his minor league career despite such a steep downward plane on his pitches. This is likely due to the fact that despite showing above average velocity (sitting 88-92, touching 93-94), his fastball doesn’t have very much natural movement. It’s the typical four-seam fastball that will have its vertical trajectory drop between one and three inches due to spin, whereas sinkers or two-seam fastballs will usually drop anywhere between four and eight inches.

The two offspeed pitches Nolin features, his changeup and curveball, both project to be solid-average to above average offerings with continued development. The curveball made huge strides during the 2012 season, as it has leapfrogged the changeup to become Nolin’s second best weapon. He’ll throw it in the mid 70’s, and it has a nice plane of break in generating plenty of swings and misses. The straight changeup is a close third, and at 77-80 miles per hour it has nice velocity separation from the fastball. The arm speed is pretty good, but Nolin can often throw it with a little too much firmness, weakening the sink and leaving it susceptible to left handed batters. The overall package is still more control than command, but Nolin made improvements last season, particularly with his fastball. At his age and size, there’s not much physical projection left, so further development will revolve around him continuing to learn how to pitch and commanding the offspeed stuff.

Having already pitched two years of full season ball, Nolin is on track to be the first of the next wave of arms to reach Toronto. With his well-rounded three pitch repertoire he should be ready to pitch in the big league rotation by early 2014, but if the Blue Jays are in the playoff hunt in late 2013, he could temporarily serve out of the bullpen in a lefty-punishing role (with Dunedin in 2012, he had a 37-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 28 innings against lefties). He may lack the ceiling of pitchers like Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, but he’s the only potentially above average starter in the system with experience at the Double-A level – where he’ll return to start the 2013 season. Hopefully the organization can avoid a repeat of 2012 where they prematurely promoted Drew Hutchison due to poor pitching depth at the major league level, as Nolin may make such a decision very appealing.

Dream on Me

Matt Smoral – 2012 team: N/A

Matt Smoral has all kinds of length (Image courtesy of Jim Olexa and Cleveland.com)

At 2 million dollars, Matt Smoral received the largest signing bonus of any Blue Jays selection from the 2012 draft, ahead of even Toronto’s top two picks, first rounders D.J. Davis and Marcus Stroman. There are two main justifications as to why Toronto was forced to hand over such a substantial bonus. The first is that, by ability, Smoral was a mid-first round talent (Baseball America ranked him 24th overall), and the only reason he fell was a foot injury suffered in April that required surgery. The second aspect is tied to the first, in that Smoral had every reason to pass on the Blue Jays offer and pitch in college. The foot injury damaged his value, and three years at a reputable program in North Carolina could boost him into potential top-5 pick status in 2015. The Blue Jays got the deal finished, and while the surgery eliminated any chance of a draft year debut, Smoral should be 100% ready when spring training rolls around in February.

Smoral’s size and repertoire have drawn some half hearted Randy Johnson comps, and while that’s really fun to think about, Smoral has a long, long (long) way to go before he should even be mentioned in the same breath as one of the best pitchers in baseball history. His height is the first thing you notice, as at 6-foot-8 (or 6-foot-7, depending upon who you ask), Smoral is the tallest guy in the room everywhere he goes. He’s got some solid mass at 225 pounds, but much of it is located in the lower half, whereas his arms and chest are still a little on the skinny side. As the 18 year old continues to physically develop, that should only further augment a fastball that already sits between 90 and 94 miles per hour – velocity that comes very easily to him. Smoral delivers the ball from a low 3/4 arm slot, which gives it some natural cutting action and creates a very difficult angle for hitters to pick up the ball from, particularly lefties.

The arm slot is extremely beneficial to his slider as well, and the breaking ball is already being called his best pitch. Future grades of plus and even plus-plus have been thrown on the 82-85 mph offering, as it’s extremely hard and has sharp break. Smoral will throw a low 80’s changeup, but thanks to his overpowering 1-2 combo it was seldom used in high school. He has good arm action on the pitch and it has late sink, but Smoral can occasionally have difficulties getting on top of the ball and leaves it up. He’s been known to throw a curveball as well, and he’s actually shown the ability to get some nice spin rotation on it, but the pitch takes a back seat to the power slider and is clearly his fourth pitch at this point. Smoral is very athletic for his size, and given the strides he’s made since the summer of 2010, scouts are very optimistic on his development moving forward.

If the front office’s decisions from 2012 are any indication, Matt Smoral is looking at a Bluefield assignment to open up his Blue Jays career. Smoral has upside for days, but given the layoff he’ll have had (it will be 14 months between competitive, non-intra-squad games) and the lack of innings he threw as a whole in 2012, the organization is going to play it safe. Much like Norris, Roberto Osuna, Joe Musgrove, Kevin Comer et al. last season, Smoral is likely to find himself paired with another pitcher, throwing 3-4 innings in a game every four or five days for at least the first part of Bluefield’s season. From there, if his foot is holding up, Smoral should see his workload expand, and may even find himself in Vancouver before the summer is finished. He’s a long way away, but at 6-foot-8, there’s a whole lot of pitcher to dream on here.

The Bullpen Guy

Griffin Murphy – 2012 team(s): Rookie-Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
1-2, 39.1 IP, 26 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 13 BB, 44 K
1.83 ERA (2.51 FIP), 0.99 WHIP, 10.07 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 1.03 GO/AO

Murphy pitching for his high school team, Redlands East Valley (The Press-Enterprise, Mark Zaleski)

Hey, remember that much talked about 2010 draft? Here’s yet another promising arm who joined the organization in it, with Murphy being selected in the second round and receiving an 800 thousand dollar signing bonus. While not a true reliever as of yet (he made just two starts against 15 relief appearances in 2012, many of which went for multiple innings), all signs point to Murphy eventually filling that role as he ascends the minor leagues. He falls into the numbers game, as while in some organizations he may be viewed as a potential back-end starter, there’s simply not going to be any room in Toronto’s rotation if/when he arrives. The Bluefield assignment was rather disappointing (he could have at least pitched in Vancouver to open the year, if not Lansing), but he made the most of his opportunity, with his season highlighted by a scoreless streak that eclipsed 25 innings.

As I touched on above, the reason why I feel Murphy will eventually move to the bullpen is due to a lack of room, not a lack of a viable third pitch. Quite the contrary, in fact, as between his fastball, curveball, and changeup, Murphy features three pitches with average to above average potential, and all have shown some impressive polish. His best offering of the three is his fastball, which has fringe-plus velocity from the left side, clocking in between 89-92 miles per hour, touching 93-94. The movement is merely average, but Murphy has excellent fastball command, locating the pitch safely on the corners both inside and outside.

Throwing from a high 3/4 arm slot, Murphy does his best to get on top of the ball and create a downward plane on his pitches, particularly his offspeed stuff. The curveball has 12-to-6 movement (or close enough), and has nice form and shape while being thrown in the mid 70’s. It has sharp break when he’s throwing it well, but when he fails to get on top of the ball it loops with an easy to pick up arc to the plate. He has good arm speed on the straight change, and the pitch shows solid sink at the plate. The command of the offspeed isn’t quite to the level of his fastball command, but still falls within the average range.

Murphy is more than ready for Lansing, and given that the organization will likely have the Lugnuts once again employ a piggyback system to open the year, he could prove to be a very valuable asset to have there in 2013. He’s in a similar boat to that of the recently departed Anthony DeSclafani, as while the bullpen is his best and likely eventual role, it’s easier for him to develop his pitches and command if he’s throwing 100 innings in a season instead of 50. The Blue Jays could piggyback Murphy with one of the younger arms they’re being very protective of – like a Roberto Osuna, for example – or simply use him as a long/swing man to throw multiple innings of relief a few times every week. With a full year of innings under his belt, Murphy could then be placed on the fast track, with a bullpen debut in Toronto as early as late 2014 not out of the question.

Remember the Name

Jairo Labourt – 2012 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
0-3, 38.0 IP, 38 H, 16 ER, 2 HR, 23 BB, 39 K
3.79 ERA (3.65 FIP), 1.61 WHIP, 9.24 K/9, 5.45 BB/9, 0.70 GO/AO

Like Alberto Tirado on the right handed pitcher primer, Jairo Labourt was an under the radar international signing, though he came a few months later in January of 2011. He was eligible to be signed in the previous July, but it wasn’t until his stuff improved a notch over the fall and winter that he really began to draw attention. The Blue Jays delivered the left hander a bonus worth 350 thousand dollars, and because he technically signed during the 2010 period, he was able to pitch that same summer. Working for the Blue Jays Dominican League affiliate, Labourt made 12 starts, throwing just over 36 innings while carrying a 2.23 ERA. He jumped stateside as an 18 year old this past summer, and showed both an uptick in velocity and strikeout rate. He’s very much still a work in progress, however, evident by the 5.45 walks per nine.

The 18 year old Labourt doesn’t have as much physical projection left as most Latin American pitchers, as at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, he’s already a fairly big and muscular guy. He’s athletic as well, which noticeably translates into his delivery. It’s very smooth and the mechanics are clean, but Labourt has struggled to consistently repeat the motions, which has lead to the control problems I mentioned above.

Labourt’s fastball has already flashed plus velocity, as while the pitch sits in the 88-92 mph range, it’s touching as high as 94. He attempts to play up the velocity even further by using a changeup, but it’s still very raw and can be picked up with relative ease. Unsurprisingly, he’s been pumped by right handed batters early in his career, as in 2012 alone he surrendered 30 hits and 14 walks in just 24.2 innings against them (5.11 ERA). He’ll need to significantly improve the pitch moving forward. Working in his favor, however, is an advanced curveball with tight spin and plenty of depth. It’s an excellent chase pitch, and has been a big factor in his above average strikeout rate thus far in his career.

It’s probable the Blue Jays will continue to move things along slowly with Labourt, so Bluefield appears to be the most appropriate destination in 2013. His inning totals have been satisfactory thus far, but with Labourt now 18 and entering his third year in short season ball, I expect the reins will be loosened slightly, with perhaps more four and five inning starts. The organization would likely prefer to see him work his way into the 50-plus innings range next year, allowing for a full season assignment in 2014 without too many workload restrictions. His stuff from the left side makes him a name to follow, and if he can harness in some of that control, he could make some serious waves next summer and beyond.

1. LHP Sean Nolin (DUN): 0-0, 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Sean Nolin (RIGHT) poses with his Dunedin teammate, infielder Kevin Nolan, in June (Eddie Michels, Toronto Sun)

This week’s hottest prospect earned himself a promotion to Double-A New Hampshire thanks to a season long hot streak that culminated in his dominant performance on the 14th of August against Brevard County. The 6-foot-5 left hander struck out 10 batters in five innings, allowing four hits and zero walks. A pair of runs crossed the plate, but both were unearned due to some shoddy High-A defense behind him. An early June injury sidelined Nolin for the better part of two months, but his overall season numbers of a 2.19 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.38 K/9 across 86.1 innings is highly impressive. When combined with his breakout numbers in the Midwest League back in 2011, we have a very real prospect on our hands. Nolin doesn’t have the stuff to be a top, or even middle of the rotation starter in the major leagues, but he’s establishing himself as a durable pitcher with a solid #4/5 starter ceiling.

2. 3B Gustavo Pierre (LAN): 20 AB, .450/.500/.700 (1.200 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 2/6 BB/K

Pierre opened the season in extended spring training, but after Kellen Sweeney struggled mightily for the Lugnuts over the first two months, Pierre received the bump to Lansing and has progressively improved as the year wore on. In the months he’s received significant playing time, his OPS has increased from .544 in June, to .769 in July, to finally .952 here in August. The 20 year olds overall season line has risen to .260/.317/.414, a vast improvement over the .187/.244/.262 he produced for Lansing in the first half of 2011. Originally a shortstop, historically bad defensive numbers forced a move to third base, where, while still extremely raw, he appears to have settled in. The offensive tools have always been prevalent; harnessing them has always been the problem. After two consecutive years of poor showings, he’s finally displaying the ability that made him a top IFA in 2008.

3. LHP Griffin Murphy (BLU): 0-0, 6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

There is no hotter pitcher in minor league baseball over the past month. Dating back to July 11th, Murphy has pitched 25 innings, and has allowed a total of zero earned runs. Over his last 10 appearances, his ERA is 0.00. In those innings he’s allowed just nine hits and eight walks, while striking out 30. The dominance was exemplified last night, as in his first start for Bluefield – taking the place of recently departed Kevin Comer – he pitched 4.1 innings, allowed zero runs on one hit, and struck out seven. The biggest detractor against Murphy is his age, as the left hander is 21 years old and will turn 22 before next season begins. When I named him the 27th best prospect in the system over the winter, I hoped for a Vancouver or Lansing assignment to accelerate his development and put him on a more ideal timeline. That didn’t happen, and given his numbers, rookie-class Bluefield obviously wasn’t challenging enough. The season is running out of games, but a promotion to Lansing for the playoff run could do wonders for his future with the club.

4. C Santiago Nessy (BLU): 20 AB, .350/.435/.650 (1.085 OPS), 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 3/6 BB/K

With Carlos Perez now a member of the Houston Astros, a void has been created in the low minors for a top catching prospect. Nessy appears to have filled that spot, as after I named him a sleeper prospect entering the year, he’s gone on to produce a .252/.318/.458 slash line for Bluefield. For a catcher, that’s exceptional production. Power has been the calling card for the young Venezuelan, which isn’t particularly surprising given his 6-foot-2, 230 lbs frame. As a highlight of that tool, Nessy hit a home run in four consecutive games between August 11th and August 16th. His eight home runs are first on the team, while his eight doubles are tied for second. The catcher won’t turn 20 until December, and is looking at a Single-A Lansing assignment next year if everything goes to plan. Losing Perez hurts, but Nessy has established himself as a solid replacement in the system.

5. 1B Art Charles (VAN): 21 AB, .333/.440/.714 (1.154 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Power continues to be the defining tool of Art Charles, as even a promotion to the wider dimensions of the Northwest League parks have been unable to contain him. His ISO with the Canadians sits at 245, which is exceptional even for a first baseman. The biggest drop in performance since his promotion has been his walk rate, as entering this week he had just four base-on-balls in 16 games after walking 33 times in 31 games for Bluefield. Charles resolved that problem this week, as in addition to his usual power (two doubles, two home runs), he walked four times while striking out just five times. With the graduation of David Cooper and the low ceiling of Mike McDade, one could argue that Art Charles is now the top first base prospect in the system; though that’s more an indictment of the positional depth than it is a complement to Charles.

6. LHP Justin Nicolino (LAN): 1-0, 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Aaron Sanchez has cooled off and been injured. Noah Syndergaard has struggled to find innings as he approaches his season limit. Meanwhile, Justin Nicolino keeps on rolling. His start this week was his eighth consecutive outing of five-or-more innings. His 109.1 innings this year are tied with Anthony DeSclafani for first on the team, while his WHIP is tied for first among starters. His six strikeouts against Fort Wayne on the 17th gave him 107 total punchouts on the year, which moved him into the team lead. I have mentioned before that Nicolino’s ceiling is obviously below that of Sanchez and Syndergaard, but his performance this season has proven that his floor is easily the highest, as he’s become the most durable and reliable of the trio.

7. RHP Danny Barnes (DUN): 0-0, 3 SV, 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

I stretched the list to seven this week solely so I could include Danny Barnes. The Princeton grad (yes, the same Princeton that Carlton Banks attended on The Fresh Prince of Bel Air) has been a dominant reliever since the Blue Jays made him a 35th round pick in the 2010 draft. He transitioned into the closer role for Dunedin this year, and has excelled to the tune of a 1.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 11.02 K/9 in his 49 innings. Barnes made four appearances this week, in which he didn’t allow a run and earned three saves. His 32 saves on the year are first in the Florida State League by a mile, as the second place reliever, Chris Rearick of the Tampa organization, has just 20. As a four year college senior he’s always been a bit old for the level he’s pitched at, but Barnes absolutely has a middle relief or setup-type ceiling.

Honorable mention: Javier Avendano (VAN), OF Kevin Pillar (DUN)

So after digesting the wealth of Jays knowledge now at the stadium, I made it a priority to talk to LaCava after Tuesday’s game to see if he would be willing to answer a few questions before the end of my trip. I was actually taken aback at how nice and accommodating he was, as he was willing to answer questions right then and there. We made small talk and briefly discussed Rollins, who LaCava said conceals the ball while working at a quick pace, and Anthony DeSclafani, who he called “another Blue Jays special” before bringing up Shaun Marcum.

I had left my recorder up in the press box, though, so after discussing a few other tidbits, I was going to have to connect with LaCava later in the trip for the interview instead, which turned out to be just prior to Thursday’s game. Considering the amount of front office staff in attendance, not to mention that Lugnuts manager John Tamargo Jr. was absent for the first two games of the week, LaCava was, as expected, very, very busy on this trip with things to do and so many people to talk to. I’d like to sincerely thank Mr. LaCava for giving me the time of day amid his hectic schedule not just once but twice, and for being so gracious in his responses as well.

I really enjoyed hearing his insight to the questions below, and I hope you do as well. My questions are in bold, with LaCava’s answers in plain text.

Sticking with Lansing first-off, a guy like Justin Nicolino, obviously he has the plus change and a good curveball too. Fastball velocity, though, is it an issue at all? Or do you see him adding a couple of ticks to it?

“Well, I think there’s more in there. He’s just turned 20, or he’s turning 20, and physically there’s still some growth, if you look at him he’s got more future growth I think. Already he’ll show you 92, he doesn’t pitch at 92, but his velocity’s creeping up since he signed, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a little bit more fastball. Not that he needs it, because honestly with the angle that he pitches at, the changeup, and the improving curveball, we think he’s got the weapons to be one heck of a starting pitcher in the big leagues right now, even if he doesn’t get more velocity.

Speaking of weapons, Aaron Sanchez. In terms of that changeup, that third pitch, how’s it coming along?

“We think it’s going to be the third plus pitch that he has. Fastball velocity it keeps getting better, and movement, and angle, and command of it just continues to get better and better. His breaking ball is an out pitch, it’s a knockout curveball, and his changeup is, at times, plus also. So that’s three out pitches we think, and he’s just 19.

It’s pretty easy to get excited about him.

“Oh yeah, yeah. We think he’s got a great future.”

Keeping with the Lansing starters, how did the whole piggybacking concept come to fruition this season?

“Well piggybacking’s been done in the past in other organizations, especially with younger pitchers. It’s a way to get a five-month season out of pitchers who normally, if you just let them go full go, would run out of innings by, at the latest, mid-July. We’re trying to get them into a mindset of going five months which is a full minor league season — ultimately we want them to go six months — and to protect them during their teenage years where they’re being asked to do more and they’re still growing, they’re still physically growing. It’s our way of making sure we do the right things by them from a health standpoint.”

Going all the way down the ladder to the Gulf Coast League, a guy like Griffin Murphy, the top prep left-hander of the 2010 draft, he’s not getting talked about much with guys like Nicolino and Daniel Norris in the system right now. How’s he coming along?

“I haven’t seen him since spring training, but in the spring it looked like there had been some improvement, the velocity was starting to get back into that 90 range. Right now it’s just more of an opportunity and waiting. The guys that we wanted to come here we deemed were more ready for this level, and we haven’t really sat down and done the short-season rosters yet, but I’m hopeful that he’s going to, obviously, be a part of one of those teams.”

Jacob Anderson and Dwight Smith Jr., they get lumped together a lot. Can you expand a bit on each player individually?

“Well they’re very different. I mean Jacob is 6’5″ and a longer muscle guy, and Smitty is more of a compact, stronger-type build. Anderson’s got future physical development, and Smith does too, but not as much projection on the body. So physically, there are big differences. Smith we feel is going to be able to play center field, so we’re going to have him do that, and Anderson will be on a corner, and it looks like it’s going to be right field. So he’s got enough for a right field arm.”

A guy like Adonys Cardona, there’s a ton in there, he’s just starting to get noticed it seems. Do you think that’s because he’s an international signing and because of his age?

“Yeah, he’s that much younger, he’s two years younger than these guys here [in Lansing]. He’s 18, and these guys are turning 20 at some point, 19/20. He’d be a junior at high school here in the States. He’s just a little under the radar but he’s got just great potential. He’s got an extremely quick arm, a very, very athletic body that’s projectable as well. He’s got a chance to throw really hard some day. He already, as a 17-year-old, was throwing 94 and even 95, so we think he’s got a really bright future as well.”

With rookie league numbers, the consensus is to not read too much into them and take them with a grain of salt. At what point or level, if at all, do the Blue Jays pay attention to a player’s statistics?

“I think we certainly look at the numbers in the low levels too, but obviously the further away from the major leagues, the less the numbers mean. You can go back to amateur baseball, for instance, you go to a high school game, and we don’t really know how to evaluate numbers in high school baseball. But certainly at the major league level, at the other end of the spectrum, it is what it is: a guy’s numbers are his numbers, and you just work backwards. The further away from the major leagues, the harder the numbers are to predict in future performance, but you can still gather information. I think we’re probably more concerned by bad numbers than we are impressed with good numbers.”

With the draft coming next month, how do you feel about it both talent-wise and having five selections in the first 60 picks?

“Well Andrew Tinnish, our scouting director, is the point man on the draft. Alex, myself and Perry Minasian, our pro scouting director, have seen some players from the draft for Andrew, but I don’t really have the pulse on it like I would like to, to really comment on the strength of it and things like that.”

I was talking to C.J. Ebarb about John Stilson, and he said that Stilson wants to almost cut your throat out when he’s on the mound because he’s just that fierce. He’s starting right now in Dunedin, is that the long-term plan or vision for him, to give it his all as a starter?

“With all the kid pitchers we get, we’d like to at least explore starting just to see, because starters are so much more valuable than relievers. If you can get 200 innings as opposed to 60, those 200-inning guys are so hard to find, so you want to make sure that you explore that. We think Stilson has the weapons to start, and we’re going to give him a chance. We’re going this year and we’re going to evaluate him periodically, but so far so good.”

I heard Michael Crouse had a very good spring. I was only down there for a week, but there were whispers that he had a great spring overall. Can you give an update on him?

“I haven’t seen him yet, in fact going there next, but obviously Michael is a talented kid. It’s only been six weeks down there so it’s really hard to put a lot of stock into such a small sample, but obviously I look forward to seeing him when I get there. He had such a good year here, and we expect him to do the same down there.”

To me, he just screams upside.

“Yeah, he’s a toolsy, very talented kid. He can run, he can throw, he’s got power, and he’s getting better each day, he’s rapidly improving. From the day he signed to this point, he’s come a long way.”

Shifting up to Vegas, Yan Gomes has started to play third base. Has he boosted his stock, especially given his versatility?

“Yeah he definitely has. He’s put himself on the map, on the radar so to speak. We’ve been blessed to have all this catching with J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, [A.J.] Jimenez, [Carlos] Perez, and you’ll hear about [Santiago] Nessy, who was a kid in the Gulf Coast League last year. Yan has just kind of flown under the radar but he had a really nice spring training, a great camp, and we felt like he deserved to go to Triple-A and that he earned the opportunity to go to Triple-A. But with Travis there we didn’t know how to get him the playing time, and he had played a little bit of corner infield in the past, so we felt that we could have him do that and get more at-bats in, and then when Travis has a day off he gets some catching as well. So it was two-fold, one to increase his versatility, and the other to get him more playing time in Triple-A.”

Is the hitting environment in Las Vegas frustrating from a developmental perspective when it comes to evaluating a player’s progress?

“Ideally you’d like it to be more of a fairer environment, for both hitters and pitchers. In this case it’s tough on our pitchers and a little easier on our pitchers, but there are ways to normalize the numbers. Our guys up in the office, [Baseball Information Analyst] Joe Sheehan and [Assistant General Manager] Jay Sartori, they’re always trying to, I guess, translate what happens in Vegas and normalize the numbers. They only play half their games there, so we do get the benefit of seeing them in other places. It certainly favors the hitters there, there’s no question about that, but the league’s been out there forever and Vegas has been a minor league affiliate for a long, long time, and the cream of the crop will come to the top, right?”

Also, after the interview and while sharing a quick elevator ride, Santiago Nessy was brought up again (I forget how). I asked about some of the whispers that the young catcher could eventually move out from behind the plate given his body type, and LaCava quickly dismissed that, stressing that Nessy’s future is behind the plate and that “he’s not going anywhere”.

- JM

No. 29: Griffin Robert Murphy

Starting pitcher / 21 years old / 6′3″ 200 lbs

Born: January 16, 1991 in Highland, California

Bats: Right Throws: Left

High School: Redlands East Valley (Redlands, CA)

College: N/A

Acquired: Drafted by the Blue Jays in the 2nd round (61st overall) of the 2010 Amateur Draft

Pre-2011 Rank: 19

Quick Facts:

• Was scouted by every AL East team except the Orioles
• Went 11-1 with a 1.35 ERA in 73 innings (15 games) as a high school senior, including 104 strikeouts and 20 walks for an uncanny 5:1 ratio
• Baseball America 2010 High School All-America 3rd Team selection
• In preparation for the rigors of a minor league baseball schedule, he was forced by his father to travel to baseball showcases and tournaments by himself and plan everything in advance

Career stats:

GCL Blue Jays team ranking (min. 25 IP):

• 1st in starts (11), hits allowed (48), runs (27) and home runs (6)
• 2nd in innings pitched (41.0)
• T-2nd in earned runs (20)
• 3rd in strikeouts (39)
• T-3rd in losses (2)
• T-4th in walks (16) and wild pitches (5)
• T-5th in wins (2) and HBP (3)

Video:

MLB.com draft video from 2010 can be found here

Extra Information and previous experience:

The Blue Jays selected the top-ranked high school lefty in the 2011 draft, but they also did so the year before when they took Southern California product Griffin Murphy, who significantly boosted his stock by upping his average fastball velocity by over three miles per hour and into the low 90s weeks before the draft.

Murphy has above-average command of his fastball, which is something that he was praised for prior to the draft given its rarity among high school pitchers. Against left and right-handed batters alike, Murphy can throw his primary offering inside, outside, high or low, consistently hitting spots with it when he needs to. He rounds out his standard starting pitcher’s repertoire with an improved mid-70s curveball and low-80s changeup that is still a work in progress.

Though he has room to improve both of his off-speed pitches, Murphy has shown that he’s been able to throw either of them for strikes on occasion, which bodes well against hitters in the lower levels of the minors, who typically sit on fastballs. Despite this, Murphy had some hiccups in his first taste of pro ball.

After working through the months of extended spring training in 2011, Murphy made his pro debut with the rookie-level Gulf Coast League Blue Jays in June. He overpowered opposing hitters in his first two starts, allowing three earned runs on six hits in nine innings with 14 strikeouts to only two walks, but ran into some trouble in five July starts when he struggled with his command. He issued seven walks, hit three batters and gave up five home runs in roughly 17 innings that month, before calming down in his final four starts of the year and allowing just one run in August.

Murphy finished the year overall with a 4.39 ERA/4.59 FIP in 11 starts, along with averaging over three walks and almost nine strikeouts per nine innings. He did, however, give up over 10 hits per nine as well — an underwhelming stat for an old-for-his-level pitcher facing inexperienced and much younger competition. Given the extreme uselessness of rookie ball numbers, though, it’s important to look at the reasons why Murphy didn’t have as dominant of a rookie-ball campaign as he would have liked.

As you can see in the MLB.com draft video via the link above, Murphy has a lot going on in his quirky delivery and, like the majority of young pitchers, repeating it has been an issue for him. Leaving balls up in the zone more often than not led to him getting hit hard in the middle of the season, and being able to throw downhill more consistently will be the biggest thing he’ll work on in 2012.

Having turned 21 in January without any experience above rookie ball, though, Murphy’s future is becoming cloudy. Failing to make a full season club this year and once again staying back in extended spring training means that he’ll have to impress at his first destination, likely short season-A Vancouver, to have any hopes of getting back on the radar, with a late-season promotion to Lansing almost a necessity at this point.

Expected 2012 team: Vancouver Canadians (Short-season A)

Ultimate ceiling if he puts it all together: No. 4 starter

People have seemed to give up on Murphy because of this, but after seeing him for the first time in spring training in March, I’m intrigued to watch how he fares this season. The pressure will be certainly on him, but as a hard worker with good pitchability, Murphy could make great strides this season, especially if his mechanical adjustments give his curveball–his out pitch–more bite.

-JM

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So much so, that I decided to divide the pitchers into separate posts for starters and relievers for this affiliate. Outside of Colby Broussard, there will likely never be any buzz in the future surrounding the majority of the relievers that the GCL Jays used this season because of their ages relative to the level or their transition from the Dominican Summer League. The starters, however, are quite different, since there are some recognizable names in that group, so here’s a look at them on their own.

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#19: Griffin Robert Murphy

Left Handed Pitcher / 20 years old / 6’4″ 205 lbs

image courtesy of mopupduty.com

Born: January 16th 1991, in Highland California

Bats Right   Throws Left

High School Team: Redlands East Valley

College: NA – had been committed to the University of San Diego before signing with the Jays

Drafted: in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft, 61st overall

Signed: for $800,000

Quick Facts:

• Was arguably the consensus top left-handed prep arm in the ’10 draft.
• Apparently, his father Dennis (a painter-contractor who owns his business) got him ready for Minor League traveling by forcing him to travel to baseball showcases and tournaments on his own. He had to organize the entire trip from the time he was a sophomore onwards, something that has apparently helped make him more mature and ready for the next step. (more…)

First, kudos to Marcum who brought the Jays to within 9 games of both the wild card and the AL East lead. Second, congrats to Anthopolous who continues to get the job done in an extremely encouraging manner.

Here’s a rundown of the last minute signings completed by Alex and the Jays:

1st rounder Deck McGuire, $2 million ($209,000 million over MLB’s recommended slot amount)

I do not make any pretention of believing Deck McGuire will be anything greater than a great #3 starter with a slight possibility of being a number 2 if everything falls into place and his experience makes him better. His stuff just doesn’t play that highly. However, his floor is high, meaning that the Jays are pretty well assured of getting a #4 starter at a minimum, which makes the cost of signing him inevitably higher.

2nd rounder Griffin Murphy, $800,000

This was a crucial signing for the Jays as Griffin was the top LHP they got in this draft class and a real talent who has top of the rotation potential. He’s already a blogger-prospect favorite for the Jays writers and will surely make BA’s top 30 Jays prospect list in 2011.

4th rounder Sam Dyson, $600,000

The 5th RHP to be drafted by the Jays in the top 4 rounds, Sam gets a nice bonus for a 4th rounder but will have to fight off a bunch of talented guys to get any sort of shot at being a starter in The Show for the Jays. He’s also the smallest of the 5 RHP drafted in the first 4 rounds, making him the immediate underdog. (more…)

Just imagine what that rotation would have looked like if Roy Halladay had stuck around…….ugh. Can you say first place?

The following are my “Top 20 Jays Minors Starting Pitchers” that are stepping up the ladder and are providing wave after wave of pitching for the Jays. I have discounted Rzepczinsky and Mills as we know what they have to offer. As we all know, you can never have too much pitching, and health issues can quickly unravel even the best season.

1 – Kyle Drabek, 23 years old (this month), AA New Hampshire, 6’1″ 190 lbs, RHP (#1-3, 2011)

• 12-9/ 2.92 ERA/ 142 IP/ 110 hits allowed/ 54 walks/ 110 Ks/ .213 average against
• There is no doubt that Kyle may very well be one of the most highly touted Jays SP prospects to bless our system in quite a long time. Others who came up the ranks, such as Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter, had a rougher time getting established. Kyle has the potential to be a true #2 pitcher, with the chance of being a #1. He has swing and miss stuff that drops off and tails away from hitters. RHB are hitting .198 against him, showing just how dominant he is against them, while lefties are only hitting a lowly .228 – not too shabby. There’s a reason Drabek was untouchable for a long time in the Doc Halladay deal, he’s a top fo the rotation starter that will be ready to take that role on full time -and for a full season innings wise – in 2011.

2 – Zach Stewart, 23 years old, AA New Hampshire, 6’2″ 205 lbs, RHP (#2-#4, 2011)

• 8-2/ 3.67 ERA/ 115.1 IP/ 108 hits allowed/ 48 walks/ 92 Ks/ .251 average against
• Sure, the Jays gave up Scott Rolen in acquiring Stewart, a player that could have helped bring the Jays to the playoffs this season, but the Jays will get many years of performance from Zach. He’s getting better as he gains confidence after being swithed from a RP to a SP, and now has a 2.54 ERA over his last 10 games with a lower .237 average against. He may need a little more seasoning than Kyle does in order to be successful in The Show, but he should be a more than adequate #3-4 once all is said and done.

3 – Asher Wojciechowski, 21 years old, SS Auburn DoubleDays, 6’4″ 235 lbs RHP (#2-3, 2012)

• 0-0/ 0.75 ERA/ 12 IP/ 6 hits allowed/ 4 walks/ 11 Ks/ .146 average against
• I’d love to slide Noah Syndergaard in here, but simply due to playing at a higher level and being more seasoned and closer to the majors, I went with Asher. He’s a big guy, strong, a workhorse that pounds the bottom of the zone on a great downward plane. He’s currently on the DL and will hopefully return before the season ends, but everything he showed after signing points to the fact that he could begin the 2011 season as high as HiA Dunedin, possibly AA New Hampshire. He’s more seasoned than the other 2 sandwich picks, and if Deck McGuire doesn’t sign, he will be the first 2010 drafted SP to make an impact with the Jays.

4 – Noah Syndergaard, 17 years old, GCL Blue Jays, 6’5″ 200 lbs, RHP (#2-3, 2013)

• 0-1/ 0.82 ERA/ 11 IP/ 7 hits allowed/ 4 walks/ 5 Ks/ .194 average against
• Noah is already big and strong and will only turn 18 at the end of August, leaving him plenty of time to add an inch or two and lots of strength. Of all of the pitchers taken in the 2010 draft, Noah and Aaron Sachez come with the highest ceilings and greatest tools. His fastball is dominant, a true power pitcher, and his curve ball and change ups are already showing above average potential. Although it may take him a little longer to get up the ladder, Noah should be ready for LoA Lansing at the very young age of 18 in 2011, making him a very impressive SP in the Jays system. (more…)