On April 2nd 2010, I made some bold and “out of the norm” predictions about the upcoming season. Some people may have called them crazy, in fact some did, because I was one of a very few people who predicted that the Jays would finish off the 2010 season with a winning record. To make such a bold prediction after the Jays dealt the best pitcher in franchise history was not easy to do, but I truly saw the potential of the squad at the time. Sure, some of my assessments didn’t pan out, and I don’t have a crystal ball to look into. But, I did make a few calls that turned out just great. Here are the verdicts, with a link to the article itself available here.

1. Blue Jays Record: My overall record projection was 82-80. The actual record was 85-77. I was off by 3 games. (more…)

Jose Bautista, John McDonald, Brad Emaus, Shawn Bowman (MLFA), John Tolisano, and Balbino Fuenmayor.

Only the first 3 stand a chance of seeing action at 3B, while Yunel Escobar and Aaron Hill could shift over if acquisitions or promotions at 2B/SS warranted such a move to be made. In any case, although it’s something Alex will look to address this off season, you can see from the list above that it’s nowhere as critical a worry to the Jays as the Bullpen currently is. (more…)

Newly appointed bench coach Don Wakamatsu will not be blocked though should he get the nod for the New York Mets managerial position, but here’s to hoping he sticks with the Jays in 2011 and beyond, mainly because of his experience as a catcher to help J.P. Arencibia develop and as a Major League manager to give John Farrell constant quality feedback. On to the non-tenders…

Edwin Encarnacion – Encarnacion, evidently the “throw in” portion of the Scott Rolen trade with the Reds, really did a sufficient job as the Jays third baseman considering the Jays were lacking options at the hot corner. He endured constant criticism for his fielding throughout his tenure with the Jays and adopted the nickname E5, which was unfortunate considering he was popular with teammates in the clubhouse, had a great attitude going back to the minors, and he was one of the nicer players when I saw the Jays before games during their interleague series in San Diego in June. While, according to Fangraphs and UZR/150, Encarnacion had his best fielding season of his career, he did commit 18 errors in 95 games, which was the highest on the team.

Offensively, Encarnacion put together a .244/.305/.482 line in 96 games in 2010, and showed more patience at the plate with 60 Ks, tying his career low for Ks in a season. He is in his final year of arbitration, and the reason he is making a case for a raise (which he will likely get) from the $4.75M he made in 2010 is because of his power potential. This season marked only the 2nd time in his career he’s topped the 20 homer mark, hitting 21 dingers to go along with 51 RBIs. This was all boosted by his scorching end to the season, where he went 8-for-19 (.471) with 5 HR and 10 RBI in his final 5 games of 2010. (more…)

You may wonder why I point him out of the crowd. Well, here’s how I break it down.

Jose Bautista had a career year, no question, but is already hitting his 30s and undergoing surgery, which means that his production may go down some. His underproduction from 2010 levels should be covered by what I hope is a resurgence of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. Their 2010 performances did not do their talents justice and I fully expect them to hit at a much higher level in 2011. Aaron will be playing for a contract since his 2012-14 contracts are club options, while Adam has no contract issues to worry about. All 3 players will undoubtedly amount to a good level of production that should match or even surpass their collaborative output from 2010, which bodes well for the core of the lineup.

I think that we can all agree that Vernon Wells proved that his wrist issues really were the issue in 2009. His 2010 numbers bounced back to expectations, and there is no reason to believe that his production should falter in 2011. The Jays seem to be settled behind the plate, with Alex Anthopolous putting all of his support behind J.P. Arencibia and it being very likely that the Jays will pick up Jose Molina‘s $1 million club option. What better teacher for J.P. behind the plate than the crafty defensive specialist?

That leaves Yunel Escobar, Edwin Encarnacion and Fred Lewis as the only regulars not named Snider to be covered here. Yunel will undoubtedly have his ups and downs in 2011, but overall I expect he will do his job and get on base often with a .280 or above average and 15+ HRs. Edwin may not be back and will most likely be replaced by either a FA, such as Adrian Beltre, or through trade. The Jays do have internal options at 3B in Brad Emaus and Shawn Bowman who both played in AAA and AA respectively last season, but I think we can all agree neither will be the starting 3B in 2011. As for Fred Lewis, unless he’ll accept a lesser role – which is doubtful – he will most likely be non-tendered and become a FA. With Darin Mastroianni, Anthony Gose, and Eric Thames making noise in the minors as outfielders, the Jays do not need to spend much money on someone like Lewis to be successful.

That leaves us with one big question mark in the lineup, or namely, will 2011 be Travis Snider’s big coming out year?

My answer is a big fat yes, and here’s why. (more…)

After watching all 4 games he has played thus far for the Jays, I can say one thing without a doubt – Yunel is a baseball player with a well above-average baseball IQ and and well above-average ability. Both HRs he has hit so far were crushed and showed a lot more power than the Jays were “supposed to get” in this deal.However, it’s the bunt singles and D that have me loving his upside more and more every day. As the game began last night and Fred Lewis singled on the first pitch, Yunel was able to recognize that the 2nd baseman was following Fred Lewis to 2B as he tried to steal. So, instead of trying to drive the ball or crush it, he simply bunted it to where the 2B was supposed to be playing – hard enough to get by Kyle Davis, and got on 1B as a result. That, my friends, is not something that many players would recognize or would be willing to do, especially in the AL. (more…)

Over his last 10 games, Brandon is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA, 62 IP, 54 HA, 22 ER, 21 BB, and 60 Ks. If we take out the two “bad” games against the Yankees (5 ER) and Red Sox (4 ER), we’re left with 2 games where he allowed 3 ERs, and the remainder are all 2 ERs and under. That’s a very consistent stretch of games and a reflection that everyone was right, leaving him in the rotation (with the right coaching and help of course) would lead to a blossoming of his skills as a starter. The Jays have to be happy to see Brandon pitch so well. (more…)

Alex Gonzalez is joined by SS Tyler Pastornicky who will take his place in the Braves system. Pastornicky will provide the Braves with another option at SS once Alex Gonzalez‘s salary expires after 2011, assuming the Braves pick up his option for that season at a cost of $2.5 million. The Braves get one of the best defensive SS in MLB in Gonzalez and more pop, something they are dearly lacking. This should help both their pitchers and their runs driven in numbers, and makes them better contenders in the NL East as a result. A solid deal for them that looks after both the present and the future at the SS position. (more…)

• Art Charles, who was drafted in the 20th rd by the Jays as a LHP and signed July 6th, has been converted into a 1B for the GCL Blue Jays;
• Noah Syndergaard made his debut for the Jays in the GCL, throwing 2 shutout innings where he did not allow a walk or a hit. So far so good! If looking for more information about Noah, look up the interview I conducted with him after he signed with the Jays.
• J.P. Arencibia is a man on fire in AAA and may be spelling the end of John Buck in Toronto with his performance. Not only is John’s value about as high as it can be in trades right now, but JP is tearing up the ball in AAA at a pace that can’t be ignored much longer. He’s hitting .390 with 7 HRs over his last 10 games, with a .444 OPB and ridiculous 1.396 OPS. He should be in Toronto by the end of July, once Alex starts dealing.
• Zach Stewart is beginning to heat up in AA, holding a 5-1 record and 3.19 ERA over his last 10 games. He still doesn’t have stellar numbers, 59 hits and 26 walks to 49 Ks in those 62 IP, but he is learning to come through when needed and get the job done with guys on base. A promotion to AAA may be in order by August.
• Adeiny Hechavarria is beginning to warm up in AA, but is still showing cracks to his offensive skills. While his average is much better at .279 over his last 10 games (43 ABs), he still only had 4 extra base hits in that span and was caught stealing twice (no stolen bases). That amounts to few big knocks and no speed….not exactly stellar for a SS. He can still break out soon, but hasn’t wowed anyone yet. (more…)